Independent Research Forum

For a Post 2015 Sustainable Development Agenda

IRF

12-09-03

Måns NilssonStockholm Environment Institute

and Royal Institute of Technology

IRF research agenda

• Post 2015 universal development vision and narrative

• SDG objectives structure and hierarchy• Indepth analysis of multilevel implementation

of specific goal areas such as water, energy and food

• Indicators, monitoring and learning systems

12-09-03

Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011 3

Prof. Måns NilssonStockholm Environment Institute

and Royal Institute of Technology

Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)African Climate Policy Centre (ACPC)World Resources Institute (WRI)Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE)Brazilian Foundation for Sustainable Development (FBDS)

Energy as a basis for development

Exponential growth in energy

use

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Source: IIASA

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Women disproportionally affected by lack of modern energy

Energy and development

Energy for shared development globallyfaster development in the world’s poor regions, requiring energy for

productive/ industrial economic activities world wide.

Energy for basic needs and MDGsproviding lighting, cooking and other basic energy services to all based

on an extension of the MDG goals

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Access to basic energy services for the poor

Energy for productive and industrial purposes

Energy for ”modern society”

Key question• What are the energy systems implications of a

development pathway with converging per capita incomes over the long term?– A detailed sector-by-sector energy scenario for 22 world regions

-a good chance to achieve 2 degrees climate change -meeting global needs for energy for development - observing land and water constraints

– 1st roll out of basic energy services to the poor – 2nd energy demand on par with middle income

• radical improvements in energy efficiency• accelerated retirement of fossil fuels• shift toward renewable energy sources

GDP:Shared Development

Cumulative CO2 Emissions: 2000-2050 Gt CO2Baseline 2,516 Shared Development Agenda 1,165 Required to Give 50% Chance of Keeping within 2C 1,440 Required to Give 67% Chance of Keeping within 2C 1,169

Cumulative Emissions:Scenarios Compared to Requirementsfor Climate Protection

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

default no grass no nature 10% forests

TEEB-BL

Low

Medium

Strict

”Nexus” interaction: Where and when does bioenergy hit constraints?

Energy implications

Energy demand trajectories in different regions

EJ

Making sustainable energy for all real• Access

• 2030 Ensuring universal access to modern energy services• 2050 +Ensuring enough supply for productive economic

activities world wide

• Efficiency• 2030 Doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency• 2050 +Electrification of processes and transport

• Low carbon energy• 2030 Doubling the share of renewable energy in the global

energy mix• 2050 +Ensuring land and water requirements are balanced

Lighting rural India

Cook stoves IndiaLocal

ethanol Ethiopia

Microhydro Indonesia

Energy for all in

Asia prog

Zero-Carbon Seattle

EU Covenant of Mayors

Municipal efficiency Sweden

Transition towns UK

Efficient buildings

Netherlands

Biofuels Brazil

Solar PV in China

Bio-energy

Mali

Hydro power

and grids in SSA

Integrated power

planning SA

Integrated power

planning Thailand

Solar EU and US

Wind in China

Enhancing efficiency and lifestyles

Expanding basic energy access

Expanding renewable energy

Contributing policies: transition pathways

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Long term and industry-close R&D

Stable market signals

Support experiments /demos and niche markets

Facilitate entry of new actors

Selected policy implicationsInternational1. Establish energy access, low carbon supply and efficiency as SDGs2. Establish global mechanism for energy for development – with

goals, financing and technology sharingNational1. Investment and RD&D needs not met - put the state back in the

game, reinvent industrial policy2. Put predictable but dynamic hard regulations in place to direct

and drive innovation effortsSubnational1. Nurture private-public partnerships to enable infrastructure

investments and innovation platforms2. Foster new business models and entrepreneurship for access and

for efficient practices

• Contributing goals– Processes and decisions towards the goals

• Ultimate goals– Outcomes - changes in behaviours / investments etc– Impacts – changes in society or the environment

Policy and institutional frameworks

Impacts on SD (economic, environmental, social)

Policy outputs and implementation decisions

Outcomes

Sustainable Development Goals can be formulated as:

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Low carbon supply goals / contributing

R&D expenditure

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Low carbon supply goals / contributing

Public subsidies

Low carbon supply goals / ultimate

Renewable energy shares

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Low carbon supply goals / ultimate

Cost reductions

Source; Junginger et al 2008

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Access goals: contributing

Annual investments requiredTotal Investment needs: ca 48 billion USD per year

(1/3 donors / home governments / private sector)

Efficiency goals

– Activity levels of energy services in households• Electrification and electricity use per capita

• Modern cooking stoves in use

– Activity levels of energy services in economic sectors– Intensity in economy wide and in sectors– Intensities / efficiency measurements in buildings

• Conversion rates of existing stock• Performance of new buildings

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