Energy and the Fossil-Fuel Age. V. Smil, “Energy in World History” “Fundamentally, no...
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Transcript of Energy and the Fossil-Fuel Age. V. Smil, “Energy in World History” “Fundamentally, no...
Energy and the Fossil-Fuel Age
V. Smil, “Energy in World History”
• “Fundamentally, no civilization on Earth can be anything but a solar society…” p. 157
• “Whereas preindustrial societies tapped virtually … inexhaustible (solar) energy flows, modern civilization depends on extracting …finite fossil energy that could not be replenished even in 100 million years.” p. 157
• “Unlike its predecessors, fossil-fueled civilization cannot last thousands of years.” p.158
Six Stages of the Energy Crisis
• Between 1955 and 1971, demand in the U.S. was outstripping supply
• 1972 rise in oil prices – OPEC• 1973-74 – Embargo and panic• 1975-78 -- President Ford – focus almost
entirely on supply – no long term policy• 1979 – Iran and a Second Oil Crisis• 1980-84 – Regan Era – OPEC
overproduction and new sources
Nye – pp.222-3: “The oil shock of 1973-74 was a symptom, not a cause. The shortages revealed the
energy dependence and the vulnerability that the United States had been building up for decades. The high-energy middle-class standard of living was not a victim of the energy crisis; it was the
source of the crisis. Compared with equally affluent Europeans, Americans used roughly twice as much energy per capita. Half the difference was directly
attributable to their transportation systems, and much of the rest was due to their preference for
widely spaced detached houses.
We will mine more, drill more, cut more timber."
--Secretary of the Interior James Watt
World energy use
Coal
Nuclear
Oil (34.9%)
Gas
Hydro
Biomass
Geothermal, wind, solar, etc.
RE (13.4%)
Total
~400 Quadrillion Btu
World: ~84 million barrels/day; US: ~21 million barrels/day
U.S. Energy Consumption
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006
U.S. Energy Production
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006
Electricity Generation
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006
Fertilizer Production Efficiency
Energy and Crop Yield
Frank Moore – Black Pillow (1996)
Turning Petroleum into Food or Fuel
World per capita cereal production
0.25
0.27
0.29
0.31
0.33
0.35
0.37
0.39
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
To
nn
es
/pe
rso
n
Cereal Shortfall
M. King HubbertOctober 5th, 1903 -- October 11th, 1989 "Our
ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know."M. King Hubbert