Energy and Rural Alaska Economic Development Steve Colt, University of Alaska Anchorage email...
-
Upload
buck-clark -
Category
Documents
-
view
217 -
download
0
Transcript of Energy and Rural Alaska Economic Development Steve Colt, University of Alaska Anchorage email...
Energy and Rural Alaska Economic Development
Steve Colt, University of Alaska Anchorage
email [email protected]
presented to
Utility Wind Interest GroupMay 23, 2000
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage 2
Statewide Economic Outlook:
On the Surface,• Positive Signs• People Feel Good• Future Looks Positive
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage 3
Economic Indicators
• Jobs• Wage Rate• Personal Income• Per Capita Income• Value Added (GSP)• Population
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage 4
JOBS: Growth Rate Down
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
60-70 70-80 80-90 90-98
Alaska US Avg
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage 5
BASIC JOBS:
1,810
5,080
1,390
2,340
380
4,600
890
420
-6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000
TOURISM
AIR CARGO
SEAFOOD
MINING
OIL AND GAS
TIMBER
FED CIVILIAN
MILITARY
4,000 Lost since 19904,000 Lost since 1990
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage 6
AVERAGE REAL WAGE: Down
$30,000
$32,000
$34,000
$36,000
$38,000
$40,000
$42,000
$44,000
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
1998
$
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage 7
REAL PERSONAL INCOME: Growth Rate Down
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
60-70 70-80 80-90 90-98
Alaska US Avg
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage 8
Total REAL INCOME:Growth Since 1990
$659
$154
$251
$78
-$500 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000
Millions of 1998 $
LABORINCOME
INVESTMENTINCOME
PF DIVIDEND
OTHER GOVTTRANSFERS
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage 9
PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME:
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
% A
lask
a A
bove
US
Avg
Now Below U.S. AverageNow Below U.S. Average
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage 10
NON-OIL Value-Added:Growth Rate Down
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
aver
age
annu
al g
row
th
60-70 70-80 80-90 90-98
Alaska US Avg
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage 11
POPULATION:Cumulative Change in the 1990s
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
over 40 under 40
Anchorage US Avg
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage 12
The Post-Prudhoe BluesMarket Value of Oil and Other Production
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
70 75 80 85 90 95
Mill
ion
1998
$
Oil and Gas
Seaf ood
Mining
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage 13
What About Rural Alaska?• Shift from State to Federal Funding• Shift from Govt to “Services”
employment (nonprofits, tribes)• Shift from Municipal to Tribal govt• Continuing Rapid Population Growth
– (2-3%)
• Struggle to retain fisheries wealth• Cautious embrace of tourism
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage 14
High Wind Communities
• Class 6 and 7• Coastal• Treeless• Small -- average population 387
– (excluding Unalaska)
• Some have Fish Resources
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage 15
Per Capita Personal Income:Alaska vs. High-Wind
Communities
25,000
30,000
9,500
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Alaska
Anchorage
Class67
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage 16
Fuel Cost per kWh: Anchorage vs. High-Wind Communities
2
9
0
2
4
6
8
10
cent
s pe
r kW
h
Anchorage Class67
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage 17
Components of Diesel Cost
• Crude oil = $.35 • Refining = $.25 • Bulk Barge = $.10-.30 • Inland Transport = $.00 - $1.00• Bulk Storage = $.10-.20 cents
• Total = $.80 - $2.10
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage 18
NonFuel Cost per kWh
8
17
27.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
cent
s pe
r kW
h
Anchorage Class67 AVEC
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage 19
Rural vs.(?) Urban Energy Projects
• Through 1993, urban projects cost about twice as much as rural projects plus PCE.
In any Event,• About 75% of rural energy project
dollars flow to urban areas. (weatherization)
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage 20
Energy Projects and Jobs
• The conventional energy system supports significant employment.– Little of the total cost goes out-of-
state
Hence,• Real job creation comes from a
lower cost (not price!) of living and doing business, not from one-time construction impacts.
Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage 21
Four Types of Feasibility
• Technical -- Performs according to design, designed for Alaska
• Economic -- beats avoided cost of diesel
• Locational -- resilience against normal disruption
• Human Resource / Administrative