For our Environment

EnergiewendeHistory – Status – Future

Dr. Harry Lehmann

General Director

“Environmental Planning and Sustainability Strategies”

Federal Environmental Agency (UBA)

Version November 2016

Presentation based on Material from UBA / Renac Berlin / Federal Foreign Off. (FFO) / BMWI / BMUB

What have you heard about the ENERGIEWENDE?

Source: RENAC / FFOThe Energiewende relates to all of these topics.

The Energiewende is a fundamental restructuring of the entire energy system

and energy policy.

What is the Energiewende?

Source: RENAC / FFO

The Energiewende started decades ago: Milestones

Sources: Öko Institut; BMU; Rocky Mountain Institute; Wuppertal Institut; H. Lehmann

1973 – Oil Crisis

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Ele

ctr

icit

y g

en

era

tio

n (

TW

h)

Geothermal Energy

Photovoltaics

Biomass

Offshore Wind

Onshore Wind

1990:

PV programme

“1.000 Roofs”

1991:

Electricity

Feed-In Law

2000:

First EEG

2014:

EEG Amendment

2010:

Energy Concept

2017:

Auctions

Source: UBA / Ecofys 2015, AGEE-Stat 2016 et.al.

The Energiewende started decades ago: Milestones

The Energiewende is NOT limited to the power sector, but going far beyond. It is

multidimensional and affects many more interconnected areas.

The Energiewende is multidimensional

International

relations Technology,

Research, ITAgriculture

Mobility

Energy

efficiency

Grid upgrade

Electricity

Market reform

Households +

consumers

Finance

and investors

Nuclear waste

storage Storage

Conventional

power plants

Renewable

heat and power

Social issues,

public acceptance

EU

Source: RENAC / FFO

Historical Hopes + Benefits of the Energiewende

Source: BMWi 2014, ERGO Kommunikation / H.Lehmann

Benefits

Gross employment –

Impacts of renewable energies on the job market 2004 - 2013

Source: O’Sullivan et al. (2014): Bruttobeschäftigung durch

erneuerbare Energien in Deutschland im Jahr 2013. Total (2013) 370000

Benefits - reduce costs of energy imports

Renewable sources of energy saved € 8,8 billion in 2014.

Data source: BMWi 2015

18.624.0 26.0 25.1

22.2

6.6

7.1

10.09.1

8.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Saved energy imports in billion €

Saved energy imports -ENERGY EFFICIENCY Saved energy imports - RENEWABLES

Benefits – Ownership of renewable energy installations

Installed renewable electricity capacity (in GW)

The installed renewable capacity increased constantly in the last decade.

0 1 2 3 4 6 1118

2533 36 38 40

15 17 1821

2224

26

27

29

31

3439

45

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Wind

Geothermal

Sewage/Mine gas

Hydro

Biomass/Biogas

Solar PV

Source: AGEE-Stat 2016 / RENAC

Electricity generation capacity in 2014 (in GW)

Half of a total installed electricity generating capacity (189 GW) is based

on renewable sources (87,8 GW).

12.7

23.3

34.4

26.9

39.2 38.2

6.910.3

7.7

NUCLEAR LIGNITE HARD COAL

NATURAL GAS

WIND PV BIOMASS HYDRO OTHER

Fossil: 84,6 GW Renewable: 94,6 GW

Source: BMWi 2016 / RENAC / Fraunhofer

Electricity generation in 2016 (in GW)

Half of a total installed electricity generating capacity (189 GW) is based

on renewable sources (87,8 GW).Source: Agora

PV – What is the global status?

Global Cumulated PV capacity grew to 178 GW over the past decade.

0.79.2

15.823.2

40.3

70.5

100.5

138.9

178.0

229.3

0

50

100

150

200

250

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Cumulated global PV capacity (in GWp)

Sources: SPE/EPIA 2016, EurObserv’ER 2016 for 2015

Leading countries (cumulative capacity

end 2015 in GWp):

China: 43 GW (2015)

Germany: 40 GW (2015)

Japan: 23 GW (2014)

United States: 19 GW (2014)

Italy: 19 GW (2015)

United Kingdom: 8,9 GW (2015)

France: 6,5 GW (2015)

Spain: 4.9 GW (2015)

Australia: 4.0 GW (2014)

Belgium: 3,2 GW (2015)

RES levelized cost of electricity in Europe 2014, 2020, 2030

Renewables are increasingly competitive with conventional power plants.

Source: Fraunhofer ISI 2015

FAQ about the Energiewende – electricity cost for industry

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Industriestrompreise in D (cent per kWh)

FAQ about the Energiewende – Social

There is broad consensus in Germany about the nuclear phase-out and

the support for the Energiewende.

66%

92%

75%

71%

67%

82%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Taking a lead role to carry out theEnergiewende was a good decision.

Renewable energy deployment, expansionand use is important

Renewable energies help creating a safe futureenvironment for our children and grandchildren

Renewable energy deploymentprotects the climate

Renewable energy sources reduceGermany's import dependency

The targets of the Energiewendeare reasonable

Percentage of people that agree or strongly agree with the given statement

Does the German public accept and support the Energiewende? How is

public acceptance achieved?

Source: Agentur für Erneuerbare Energie 2014, Forsa 2013

Targets and action fields of the Energiewende

ClimateRenewable

EnergiesEfficiency

GHG

(vs. 1990)Elec. Total Total

Energy-

productivityBuilding

2020 - 40 % 35% 18% - 20%

Increase

to

2,1 % p.a.

Rate

1 % 2 %

p.a.

2030 - 55 % 50% 30%

2040 - 70 % 65% 45%

2050 - 80–95 % 80% 60% - 50%

Targets and action fields of the Energiewende

Aims (Article 4):

• Holding the global average temperature increase to „well below 2

°C“ and persuing efforts to limit to

1.5 °C

• Peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible

• Net zero balance in the second half of this century

• Means decarbonization of all major industries !!!

• Germany: GHG reduction of up to 95 % by 2050.

Pillars and action fields of the Energiewende

Source: BMWi 2014

The energy transition’s foundation are renewables and reduced energy consumption.

Renewable Energy

Key legislation:

Renewable Energy Sources Act

Renewable Energy Heat Act

• Steady growth

• Environmentally friendly

Market and system

integration

Energy research and

development

Supporting fields of action

European energy and

climate policy

Key legislation:

Energy Saving Ordinance

Heating Cost Ordinance

• Reduce energy consumption

• Cost-efficient

Energy Efficiency

UBA-Study: GHG-neutral Germany in 2050

Future

Source: UBA 2014

PT X

Electricity

Industry

Waste

TransportHeatingCooling

Land Use

Agriculture

UBA-Study: GHG-neutral Germany in 2050

Qualitative representation of the energy flow in the

UBA THGND 2050 Scenario

Future

Source: UBA 2014

Possible !!!

• Profiles, activities, positions of

major actors of the Energiewende

in Germany

• Contacts in politics, industry and

society

• Further information and weblinks

The Federal Foreign Office has published the information brochure „Who is Who“

of the Energiewende, profiling the relevant actors and contacts in Germany.

Source: Foreign Office 2015

Actors: Information brochure: „Who is Who”

DOWNLOAD:

Information

Source: Foreign Office and BMWI

• Information by the Foreign Office

about Germany and the energy

transition

• Available in German, English,

French, Spain, Portuguese, Turkish,

Russian and Chinese

• https://www.deutschland.de/en/topic/

environment/energy-transition

• Information by BMWi about all

aspects related to the energy

transition

• Partially in English

• www.bmwi.de

Information

UBA Discussion paper to the Climate Action Plan 2050

English version of this position paper is on our Website

Danke! – Thank you !

Dr. Harry Lehmann (harry.lehmann@uba.de)

http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en

Germany 2050 - A Greenhouse Gas-Neutral Country https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/germany-2050-a-greenhouse-gas-neutral-country

Integration of Power to Gas/ Power to Liquids into the ongoingtransformation processhttps://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationenintegration-of-power-to-gas-power-to-liquids-into

Proceedings of the Workshop „Decarbonisation – 100 % Renewable Energy and more“ from November 2015 https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/publikationen/proceedings-of-the-workshop-decarbonisation-100