DHP P244: Modern Terrorism & Counterterrorism

Dr. James JF Forest

Enablers and Facilitators of Radicalization

Theory

•  ATheoryofTerrorism?Nosuchthing

•  Theories,however...– Theoriesaboutwhere,when,why,etc.

(e.g.enablers,facilitators,triggerevents)

– Theoriesaboutwho,how,why,etc.(e.g.,recruitment,radicaliza?on,ideologicalresonance)

– Theoriesaboutterroristgroupbehavior(e.g.,learning,targets,suicidebombings,financing,WMD)

– Theoriesaboutcomba?ngterroristgroups(e.g.deterrence,containment,disengagement)

Radicaliza?on

1.  Researchoncontextualdimensions2.  Researchonindividualcharacteris?cs3.  Centralroleofcommunica?on

–  IdeologicalEntrepreneurs– Media–  Internet

1.ContextualDimensions

Radicaliza?ondoesnottakeplaceinavacuum

I

O

ET PC

OA

GE

I = Individual Characteristics O = Organizational Characteristics PC = Precipitant Conditions ET = Environmental Triggers OA = Opportunities to Act GE = Global Environment

Causes and Facilitators of Terrorism

Poli?calGrievances•  Corrup?onamongpoli?calandeconomicelites

•  Oppressive,authoritarianregimesthats?flecivilliber?es

•  Marginaliza?on,favori?sm/discrimina?on,ins?tu?onalizedexclusion(e.g.Ethno-na?onalism,cf.Byman)

•  Injus?ce(realorperceived)

•  Poli?caldisagreements(e.g.reconstruc?on,RoevsWade)

Mosto,en,manyofthesecondi5onscoincide,crea5ngacumula5veeffectofanimositytowardthoseinpowerTedRobertGurr(1970):“Aslegi?macydeclines,peoplerebel”

Socio-EconomicGrievances•  PlatoandAristotle:

“Economicfactorsarefundamentalintheoutbreakofviolence.”

•  Marxism:“Warisamechanismformaintaininginequali?esinastruggleforcontrolofrawmaterialsandmarkets.”–  Violenceisaninevitableoutcomeofcapitalism

•  Poverty(Blomberg,etal);Widespreadeconomicdispari?es(o`en?ed

tocorrup?on,centraliza?onofpowerandwealth)•  Lackofgovernmentinvestmentineduca?on,publicinfrastructure•  Unequalbarrierstosocial,educa?onalandeconomicopportuni?es;

perceivedinjus?ceisstructural,deeplyrooted•  Changingdemographics(youthbulge);job,resourcedemands•  Globaliza?on(BenjaminBarber,“TribalismandGlobalism”)

Poli?cal&Socioeconomic•  Aspira?ons/expecta?onsvs.

opportuni?es–  Regimeunableorunwillingto

change/improve

•  Poli?cal,socio-economiccondi?onsofferfer?leground,butdonotalwaysleadtoemergenceofterrorism

Expectations

Opportunities

Contexts play a critical role in ideological resonance

Radicaliza?on

1.  Researchoncontextualdimensions2.  Researchonindividualcharacteris?cs3.  Centralroleofcommunica?on

–  IdeologicalEntrepreneurs– Media–  Internet

Radicaliza?on

Wearenotemptyvesselsintowhichaterroristideologyispouredandcompelsustoact

Eachofyoumayjoinaterroristgroupforavarietyofdifferentreasons,suchas:

•  Vengeance,revengeforsomethingdonetoyouoralovedonebythoseinpower

•  Religiousbeliefs(Islamistgovernance,stopabor?on)•  Racialsupremacist,hatredof“other”•  Love(sibling,father,friendjoins,soyoudowiththem)•  Otherreasons...?

Radicaliza?on

From60yearsofresearch,weknow:

NocommonpsychologicalprofileNocommoncountriesoforigin,immigra?onstatus,religion,ethnicity,age,maritalstatus,levelofeduca?on,familybackground,economicstatus,etc.canaccuratelypredictwhetherapersonbecomesaterrorist

Thereisno“immunity”toradicaliza?on;literallyanyonecanchoosetoengageinterroristac?vity

PathwaystowardTerrorism

•  What are the ,“MechanismsofPoli?calRadicaliza?on”describedbyMcCauleyandMoskalenko?

Radicaliza?onasaProcess

•  Radicaliza?onforterrorismisaninterac?veprocessthatbeginswithcommunica?on

–  Pathway,staircase:stepsorstagesintheprocess–  Individuallyspecificprocesses;contextiskey–  O`en,personalrela?onshipsarecri?cal

•  Radicaliza?onisrootedininforma?on,beliefsandpercep?ons,andinterpreta?on

Radicaliza?on

Radicaliza?ondefinedas“theprocessbywhichapersoncomestosupportterrorismandformsofextremismleadingtoterrorism.”

“Thefollowinggroupsarepar?cularlyvulnerabletoradicaliza?on:”•  youngpeopleandpeoplefromlowerincomeandsocio-economic

groups;•  thosewhodistrustParliamentandwhoseeaconflictbetweenbeing

Bri?shandtheirownculturaliden?ty;and•  thosewhoperceivediscrimina?on,experienceracialorreligious

harassment,andhaveanega?veviewofpolicing.

Radicalizedindividualscomefromawiderangeofbackgrounds:recentresearchdescribedthemas“demographicallyunremarkable”.

UK House of Commons, Roots of Violent Radicalisation, (Feb. 6, 2012)

Researchon“WHO”

•  Themostcommonresultofresearchindicatesapahernof“normalcy”—theabsenceofanyuniqueahributeoriden?fierthatwoulddis?nguishoneindividualfromanother

•  “Terroristsare...rarelymad,andveryfewsufferfrompersonalitydisorders”(AndrewSilke)

•  “Manyofthepersonaltraitsorcharacteris?cs...areneitherspecifictotheterroristnorservetodis?nguishonetypeofterroristfromanother.”(JohnHorgan)

•  “30yearsofresearchhasfoundlihleevidencethatterroristsaresufferingfrompsychopathology.”(ClarkMcCauley)

Researchon“WHO”

Researchonpsychologyofterrorismindicates:•  Theinabilityofpsychopathologytoexplainterrorism•  Theabsenceofanyclearpersonalityprofile•  Commonthemesoftrauma,injus?ce,andaliena?onprovidestrong

mo?va?onal“push”factorsforinvolvementinterrorism•  Theallureofpersonalstatusandotherrewards(e.g.excitement)

provedapowerful“pull”factor•  Thereduc?onofmoralrestraintsonkilling(e.g.Bandura’s“moral

disengagement”research)

Datasourcesinclude:•  Over25,000scholarlyar?clespublishedsince1971•  Policerecords;interviewswithincarceratedterrorists

LaFree & Ackerman, 2009

Individual Characteristics

•  An individual’s choice could be influenced by:

–  Personal attributes (especially when a “seeker”)

–  Sense of crisis

–  Intense grievances (local or global)

–  Retribution for perceived injustices

–  Address a power imbalance - empower the disenfranchised

–  Criminal/profit motive

–  The ties that bind: training camps, extended family, social networks; trusted networks = key

–  Many other kinds of possible reasons

Diaspora Support

•  Tamil communities in Canada, elsewhere (often through extortion rackets) supporting LTTE

•  Pakistani communities in the UK, Denmark, elsewhere in Western Europe supporting Kashmir separatist groups

•  Algerian communities in France supporting GIA, GSPC, AQIM

•  Moroccan communities in Spain supporting AQIM

•  Kurdish communities in Germany supporting PKK/Kongra-Gel separatist guerillas in Turkey/Northern Iraq

•  “For the children” jars in Irish pubs in Boston; Irish Freedom Committee soliciting funds from roughly 40 million Irish-Americans to support IRA/PIRA

GlobalJihadists

Dataon172membersoftheglobalSalafimovement:•  Lihleornorela?onshipbetweenpovertyorreligiousdevo?onof

individualsandtheirreasonsforjoiningterroristnetworks•  Typically,individualsintheirmid-20s,rela?velymoreeduca?on,

manyfrommoreprivilegedbackgroundsthanaverageci?zens•  O`en,thecompulsiontojointerroristgroupsevolvesthrough

friendshipandkinshipnetworks;radicaliza?ono`enoccurstogether•  Manyarefirst-genera?onorsecond-genera?onimmigrantsstruggling

toassimilateintonew(Western)surroundings•  Bohomline:smallgroupdynamicssignificantforrecruitmentand

mobiliza?on

Sageman, 2004

NotjustRadicaliza?on…Prof.JohnHorgan:

•  Theoverwhelmingmajorityofpeoplewhoholdradicalbeliefsdonotengageinviolence.

•  Thereisincreasingevidencethatpeoplewhoengageinterrorismdon'tnecessarilyholdradicalbeliefs.

BREAK

6SCENARIOS

Scenario1:Youngmaninrefugeecamp

Scenario2:Secondgenera4onimmigrantinUK

Scenario3:YoungTamilgirlinSriLanka

Scenario4:DevoutsouthernU.S.Chris4an

Scenario5:CollegestudentinCalifornia

Scenario6:UniversitystudentinQuebec

Whatparallelsinradicaliza4ondoweseeacrossall6ofthesescenarios?

Radicaliza?on

1.  Researchoncontextualdimensions2.  Researchonindividualcharacteris?cs3.  Centralroleofcommunica?on

–  IdeologicalEntrepreneurs– Media–  Internet

I

O

ET PC

OA

GE

I = Individual Characteristics O = Organizational Characteristics PC = Precipitant Conditions ET = Environmental Triggers OA = Opportunities to Act GE = Global Environment

Contexts of Terrorism

I

O

= Individual influencers like family, friends, small groups, clubs, diasporas, religious leaders, education, etc.

i i i i i i

Radicalization Nexus Intersection of individual characteristics and a terrorist organization’s characteristics leads to his/her affiliation with (or at least some support for) that organization and/or its ideology Radicalization for terrorism is an interactive process that begins with communication . . .

= A terrorist organization’s characteristics (leadership, reputation, history, etc.) that contribute to the resonance of its ideology among target audiences and influence an individual’s willingness to embrace (or reject) terrorism as a reasonable course of action

o

o o o

Influencing the Decision

ShapingPercep?ons

•  If an individual is motivated by perceptions of injustice, how are those perceptions formed or influenced?

•  Thinkabouthowyouhaveformedyourviewoftheworld,andyourplacewithinit.

– Whoinyourlifehasinfluencedyourpercep?onsthemost?

– Whatifyour“influencers”wereconsidered“extremists”byothers”?Wouldyouknow?

ShapingPercep?ons

•  What are the 5 “dangerous ideas” that Eidelson & Eidelson describe?

Communica?on

•  Ideologyandideologicalresonance

Terroristsseektoinfluenceatleast3primaryaudiences:

–  Vic?mizedlocalsandterrifiedobserverselsewhereinthetargetcountry(andperhapsevenworldwide)

–  Sympathizers(includingpoten?alfunders)–  Themselves&eachother(in-groupcohesion)

Terrorist radicalization as product of choices influenced by whomever and whatever help us interpret the world around us.

ShapingPercep?ons

•  Role of the media as key enablers, facilitators of this communication

•  How does Hoffman compare the “old media” (p.173-195) to the “new media” (p.197-228)?

InfluenceCampaigns

Percep5onmanagementiscentraltoAl-Qaida’swaragainsttheWest

–  AQhasitsownmediabranch(as-Sahab);audio,videodistribu?on–  Leadershipclearlydescribesnetwork’sdoctrine,strategy(andeven

sometac?cs)initsInternetandnewsmediaar?cles

“We are in a battle, and more than half of this battle is taking place in the battlefield of the media. We are in a race for hearts and minds of our umma” [the global community of Muslims]. . . We must get our message across to the masses . . . This is an independent battle that we must launch side by side with the military battle.

- Ayman al-Zawahiri

The Internet has come to replace traditional media as the main conduit for influencers to communicate with their intended audiences (However: no substitute for personal interaction)

Informa?onTechnology

•  AccordingtotheVoxPolreport,whataretherolesoftheInternetinterrorism?

•  WhatdoesFishermeanbytheterm“Swarmcast”,andwhydoesitmaher?

•  AccordingtoBurke,howdoesonlinemediatechnologyimpactterrorism?

•  Influencingpercep?onsthroughwordsandimagesisacoremissionofanyterroristgroup,(oranygroupseekingtoconfrontorcounterterroristac?vity)

•  Individualswhobecomeadeptatcommunica?ngagivenideologyinawaythat“connects”withabroadaudienceareaninvaluableassettoterroristgroups

•  Influencerstendnottocarryoutahacksthemselvesbutfocusoninspiringothers

Anwaral-AwlakiAbuMusabal-Suri

Discussion Forums

Social Media

Inspiremagazines

Inspiremagazines•  Makingtheideologymoreaccessibleto

themasses•  Tipsonhowtouseencrypted

communica?ons•  Howtogettoatrainingcamp,whatto

expect,whatnottobringwithyou•  Theimportanceofthebuddysystem•  “Howtobuildabombinyourmother’s

kitchen”

Summary

•  Radicaliza?onisviewedasaproductofdynamicinterac?onsbetweenideasandpeople,framedandinfluencedbymanycontextualfactorsandbypersonalrela?onships

•  Ideologicalentrepreneurshavemanytoolstospreadtheirideology(par?cularlyonline),buttheideasmustresonateamongthetargetaudienceandmo?vateac?on

•  Whattodowiththisknowledge?Radicaliza?onleadstobehaviorsthatcanbeobserved...

Radicaliza?on&Behavior

Behavioralindicatorsofradicaliza?on(seehandouts)

•  Extremeinterpreta?onofcurrentpoli?calorsocialissues•  Approachlifedecisionsthroughideologicalframework•  Conversiontoreligionleadstoextremeinterpreta?onoffaith•  Changeofbehaviorsathome,school,work•  Condemna?onofthosewhobelieve,actdifferently•  Curngoff?eswithfriends,familywhodon’tsharebeliefs,prac?ces•  Formnewconnec?onsinsocialnetworkofotherextremists•  Seekinforma?ononweapons,explosives,igni?on/triggerdevices•  Experimentwithchemicalsorexplosives;stockpileammuni?on•  Indica?onsofdecep?on,surveillance,hos?lity,aggressionNoneoftheseholdtrueforallcases,butsomearecommonacrossmanycases

FinalExamIdeasWhy do the same political and socioeconomic conditions exist in many countries (e.g., poverty, oppression) and yet terrorism exists in only some of those countries?

How would you describe to a friend the complexities of terrorist radicalization?

Whataresomeofthemostcompellingresearchques?onsthathaveyettobeansweredconclusivelyinthestudyofterroristradicaliza?on?

Whatarethemainelementsoftherela?onshipbetweengovernanceandterrorism?

If an individual is motivated by perceptions of injustice, how are those perceptions formed or influenced?

Ques?ons?