EMPLOYMENT FLEXIBILITY AND UK REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
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Transcript of EMPLOYMENT FLEXIBILITY AND UK REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
EMPLOYMENT FLEXIBILITY AND
UK REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
Vassilis MONASTIRIOTISEuropean Institute, LSE
Labour Market Flexibility ResearchSeminar, London, 15 December 2004
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Overview of presentation
• Introductory notes• What is labour market flexibility?
– theory and measurement
• Literature review– institutions, unemployment, and flexibility
• Research questions – unemployment, persistence, adjustment, mix
• Empirical results• Conclusions
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
What is labour market flexibility?
• Where? (firms, workers, unemployed, wages, other)
• What? (available potential vs realised outcome)
• Counter-factual (flexibility, institutions, regulations)
• Content (forms, types and manifestations)
• Similarly– What is a labour market? (regions?)– What do we mean by unemployment?
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Flexibility and regulation
• General definition (absence of impediments)
• Non-regulatory inflexibilities and
second-best rigidities• Regulation: neither sufficient nor necessary• UK labour market legislation, 1980-2000• Perceptions about changes in flexibility… • …and lack of systematic empirical evidence
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Chronology of UK labour laws
Source: IER, DTI, B&F (1984), own
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Types of flexibility
• Economic and managerial perspectives• Various typologies• Three broad domains
Institutional – financial – individual / PF – LC – LS
• Inside the firm?The ‘flexible firm’ model and its LM-wide relevance
• Four elements along two axisInternal, External, Numerical, and Functional
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Flexibility in the UK, 1985-2004
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0.6
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EF IN EN IF PF
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Flexibility in the UK regions
1985-1988 2001-2004
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Elements of flexibility
IF EN
EF IN
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Literature review
• Three main strands of literature– UK regional unemployment (patterns & trends)
Persistence – Heterogeneity – Synchronicity
– Labour market flexibility in the UKModest growth with deregulation
Numerical over functional & numerical vs functional
Good for SR efficiency – bad for equity & LR efficiency
Composition and context matters
– Labour market institutions and unemploymentRigid institutions are bad for unemployment and adjustment
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Research questions• Four main questions
– Flexibility effects on unemployment– Effects on unemployment persistence– Effects on adjustment to shocks – Compositional effects of flexibility
• Questions for further research– Spatial interactions and spatial dependence– Effects on underemployment and inactivity– Effects on productivity & dynamic efficiency
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Empirical analysis• Macroeconomic modelling
– Dynamic specification
– Persistence and shocks
– The full model
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Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Empirical analysis• General considerations
– Asymmetric effects of macroeconomic shocks
– The significance of regional & temporal effects
(regional heterogeneity and synchronicity)
– The endogeneity of flexibility(endogeneity, simultaneity, inverse causality)
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
: the impact of flexibility on unemployment
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Conclusions• Not equated to institutions (different patterns & effects)
• Not always beneficial – cannot correct for all problems of the labour market
• Only conditionally can reduce unemployment• Is associated with greater adjustment to shocks• Increases unemployment persistence at the sub-
national level (cross-regional equilibria?)• The mix of flexibility matters (variable & mix effects)
• Warning: not a tool for economic policy!