EMPIRICO-STATISTICAL FOR ANALYSIS OF ...414 ANATOLYT. FOMENKO 2.10. Threerigid "astronomicalshiRs"...
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Journal of Applied Mathematics and Stochastic Analysis 6, Numr 4, Winter 1993 SHORT REPORTS AND COMMUNICATIONS EMPIRICO-STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ANALYSIS OF NARRATIVE AND NUMERICAL SOURCES WITH APPLICATIONS TO THE PROBLEMS OF ANCIENT AND MEDIEVAL HISTORY AND CHRONOLOGY Volume one: The Development of the Statistical Tools. ISBN 0-7923-2604-0 Volume two: The Analysis of Ancient and Medieval Records. ISBN 0-7923-2605-9 ISBN 0-7923-2606-7 (Set of two volumes) Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1994. ANATOLY T. FOMENKO Chair, Differential Geometry and Applications Department of Mathematics and Mechanics Moscow State University Moscow, Russia. anatoly@f omenko. m ian. su These two volumes represent a major, unique work which is the first of its kind published in the English language. A comprehensive set of new statistical techniques is pre- sented for the analysis of historical and chronological data. These techniques constitute a new important trend in applied statistics. The first volume concentrates mainly on the development of statistical tools and their applications to astronomical data: of ancient eclipses, of the Almagest, etc. The second volume analyzes ancient and medieval chronicles and records (Egyptian, Byzantine, Roman, Greek, Babylonian, and European). An astonishing wealth of historical data is presented. The surprising conclusions are drawn from the new approach to the historical chronology de- signed in an entirely different time scale. [The conventional chronology can be restored from the one proposed by Fomenko by using special "time shifts."] They will certainly provoke controversy and serious debates. In particular, in this scenario, ancient Rome and Greece are placed in medieval times. The book provides all necessary backgrounds and materials for intelligent participation in such debates. Audience: Statisticians, historians, astronomers, archaeologists, and others with an interest in the integrity of the historical data with the use of modern science. An excerpt from the contents to volume one. 1. Global Chronological Diagram of ancient and medieval history. 2. Computation of second derivative of Moon’s elongation and statistical regularities in distribution of certain astronomical data. 2.8. Example: evangelic eclipse described in the New Testament and connected with the Crucifixion. 2.9. New graph of D" oscillates about one and the same value. No non-gravitational theories are necessary. Printed in the U.S.A. (C) 1993 The Society of Applied Mathematics, Modeling and Simulation 413
Transcript of EMPIRICO-STATISTICAL FOR ANALYSIS OF ...414 ANATOLYT. FOMENKO 2.10. Threerigid "astronomicalshiRs"...
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Journal ofApplied Mathematics and Stochastic Analysis6, Numr 4, Winter 1993SHORT REPORTS AND COMMUNICATIONS
EMPIRICO-STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ANALYSIS OFNARRATIVE AND NUMERICAL SOURCES WITH APPLICATIONSTO THE PROBLEMS OF ANCIENT AND MEDIEVAL HISTORY
AND CHRONOLOGY
Volume one: The Development ofthe Statistical Tools. ISBN 0-7923-2604-0Volume two: The Analysis ofAncient and Medieval Records. ISBN 0-7923-2605-9
ISBN 0-7923-2606-7 (Set oftwo volumes)Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1994.
ANATOLY T. FOMENKO
Chair, Differential Geometry andApplicationsDepartment ofMathematics andMechanics
Moscow State UniversityMoscow, Russia.
These two volumes represent a major, unique work which is the first of its kindpublished in the English language. A comprehensive set ofnew statistical techniques is pre-sented for the analysis of historical and chronological data. These techniques constitute a newimportant trend in applied statistics.
The first volume concentrates mainly on the development of statistical tools and theirapplications to astronomical data: of ancient eclipses, of the Almagest, etc. The secondvolume analyzes ancient and medieval chronicles and records (Egyptian, Byzantine, Roman,Greek, Babylonian, and European). An astonishing wealth of historical data is presented. Thesurprising conclusions are drawn from the new approach to the historical chronology de-signed in an entirely different time scale. [The conventional chronology can be restored fromthe one proposed by Fomenko by using special "time shifts."] They will certainly provokecontroversy and serious debates. In particular, in this scenario, ancient Rome and Greece areplaced in medieval times. The book provides all necessary backgrounds and materials forintelligent participation in such debates.
Audience: Statisticians, historians, astronomers, archaeologists, and others with aninterest in the integrity ofthe historical data with the use of modern science.
An excerpt from the contents to volume one.1. Global Chronological Diagram of ancient and medieval history.2. Computation of second derivative ofMoon’s elongation and statistical regularities in
distribution of certain astronomical data.2.8. Example: evangelic eclipse described in the New Testament and connected with the
Crucifixion.2.9. New graph ofD" oscillates about one and the same value.
No non-gravitational theories are necessary.
Printed in the U.S.A. (C) 1993 The Society of Applied Mathematics, Modeling and Simulation 413
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414 ANATOLY T. FOMENKO
2.10. Three rigid "astronomical shiRs" of ancient eclipses.2.11. Complete picture of astronomical shifting.2.12. Coincidence ofthe astronomical shiRs with the three basic chronological shiRs on
the Global Chronological Diagram.3. Traditional chronology ofthe flares of stars and the dating ancient horoscopes.4. Certain statistical regularities ofinformation density distribution in texts with scale.
4.1. Text with scale. General notion.4.3. Theoretical model describing the distribution of local maxima for the volume function
of a historical text. Primary stock. Information density conservation law.4.4. Correlation of local maxima for the volume graphs of dependent historical chronicles.
Surviving stock graph.4.5. Mathematical formalization. Numerical coefficient d(X,Y) which measures "the
distance" between two historical texts X and Y.4.6. Mathematical formulas for computing d(X,Y). Mathematical corrections ofmaxima
correlation principle.4.7. Verification ofmaxima correlation principle against a concrete historical material.4.8. New method for dating historical events.4.9. Discovery of dependent (parallel) historical epochs traditionally regarded as different.4.10. Dynasty of rulers and durations of kings’ rule as important informative function.4.11. Frequency distribution of those kings’ rules who lived in 1,400 1,800 A.D. and in
3,000 B.C. 1,800 A.D.4.12. Concept of statistical parallel historical texts and epochs.4.13. "Written biography" or enqu^ete-sode of a historical character.4.14. Method of comparing the sets of informative functions for two historical epochs.4.15. Computational experiment.4.16. Remarkable decomposition ofthe Global Chronological Diagram into the sum of
four practically indistinguishable chronicles.5. Method of duplicate recognition and some applications to the chronology of ancient
dynasties.5.1. Process of measuring random variables.5.2. Distance between two random vectors.5.3. Dynasty of rulers. Authentic dynasty and numerical
dynasty. Dependent and independent numerical dynasties. Small distortion principle.5.4. Basic errors leading to controversy among chroniclers as to the duration of kings’
rule.5.5. Experimental frequency histogram for kings’ rule duration.5.6. Virtual dynasties and mathematical model for an errors
of the chronicler made in measuring ofthe rule duration.5.7. Small distortion principle and computer experiment.5.8. Pairs of dependent historical dynasties earlier regarded
as independent.5.9. Distribution of dependent dynasties in the "Modern
Textbook of Ancient History".
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Empirico-Statistical Methods 415
5.10. Dependent dynasties in the Bible and parallel with theEuropean history.
6. New empirico-statistical procedure for historical text orderingand its application to problem of dating.6.1. Chapter-generation.6.2. Frequency damping principle.6.3. Method offinding the chronologically correct order of
chapters in a historical chronicle.6.4. Frequency duplicating principle and method of duplicate
recognition.6.5. Distribution of old and new duplicates in the Old and New
Testament. Striking example: the Revelation of John.6.6. Epochs-duplicates in the "Modern Textbook of Ancient
History".7. New experimental and statistical methods for dating ancient
history events and application to global ancient world andmedieval chronology.
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