Emmanuel Desurvire

OpticalCommunicationsin 2025

II Workshop Ciência e Tecnologia emComunicações ópticas.Campinas, Brazil, November 2005

by E.Desurvire

ALCATEL

Optical communications in 2025 — 2

• Predicting long-term technology performance is a risky business !

About long-term technology predictions

“ Well-informed people know it is impossible to transmit the voice over wiresand that were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value ”– Boston Post Editorial, 1865

“ One day there will be a telephone in every major city in the USA ”– A.G.Bell, c.1880

“ I think there is a world market for as many as 5 computers ”– T.J.Watson, head of IBM,1943

“ There is no need for any individual to have a computer in their home.”– K.Olsen, President of Digital Equipment, 1977

“ 640K [of PC memory] ought to be enough for anybody.”– Bill Gates, 1981


Outline

Introduction: a connected world

Some tools to probe the future:

Market Technology> Internet traffic > capacity X distance (Moore)

> installed-fiber > fiber bandwidth

> FTTP-PON > channel capacity (Shannon)

Conclusion


Source: http://www.uh.edu/engines/epi1640.htm

A connected world (1/2)

NY Broadway1890

NY Broadway1910

NY Broadway2025 ?

FTTH

FTTP

GPON

BPON

last mile

VDSL

HFC

FITL


A connected world (2/2)

Source: Primetrica, 2004 / www.telegeography.com

• From today to 2025, the main continental traffic routes to remain unchanged

• But P2P traffic intensity to increase orders of magnitude

• Optical networks to become more geographically pervasive with proliferation of local L2-L3 DXC/OXC/IProuters ..

Number of bandwidth providers Number of bandwidth providers


Source Corning International Traffic Model / LIGHTWAVE July 2000, see http://www.corning.com/docs/opticalfiber/r3461.pdf

Traffic segmentation by client (as projected from 2000)

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Gbi

t/s

voice

transaction data

internet

total

157%/Y

8%/Y

8%/Y

157%/Y

1 Pbit/s

1 Tbit/s

1 Gbit/s

actual 2005115%/Y

• 115%/Y from actual 2005 = 3.25 Exabit/s in 2025.. (1Ebit/s=103Pbit/s=106Tbit/s)


Internet traffic growth and the Atlantic (1/2)

*Data source: www.telegeography.com

• Aggregate internet traffic (international average) is growing 115% annually(doubling every 0.90y/10.8mo)*

• So far, the installed capacity (eg. Atlantic)provides sufficient (x2) margin to satisfyneeds up to 2007

• With current submarine-cable technology, a single 5Tbit/s protected-traffic systemcan fully handle such a need

• But the situation will be very differenta few years from now.. !!

Asia 434% Atlantic 110%Pacific 119% Europe 82%

2003-2004

0

1

2

3

4

5

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Atla

ntic

IP tr

affic

and

inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty (T

bit/s

)

installedpeak average

Atlantic


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Atlantic IP

tra

ffic

and

insta

lled c

apacity (

Tbit/s

)

115%

50%

25%

installedpeak average

catastrophic World Wide Wait

20%

• The scenarios of 50-115% internet traffic growth are catastrophic in a 3.5-7 years horizon !

• A 25%-only Internet traffic growthshould “make it“

>>> But is it a scenario we canbelieve for the next 20 years ?

• Assume the installed capacity ( ) to grow only at a 20%/year rate

Internet traffic growth and the Atlantic (2/2)


2004 data source: www.telegeography.com

181.4Gbit/s

504.5 Gbit/s

Global internet fiber routes with 5Gbit/s minimum (status mid-2004)

66.3Gbit/s


Lit submarine-cable capacity by Route (1999-2006)

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Cap

acity

(T

bit/s

)Atlantic

Pacific

intra-Asia

US-LatAm

Eu-Africa-Asia

Data source: www.telegeography.com


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Cap

acity

(T

bit/s

)

Atlantic

Pacific

intra-Asia

US-LatAm

Eu-Africa-Asia

Lit submarine-cable capacity by Route (2005-2025)

• Assuming a conservative 20% yearly growth (doubling every 3.8y/45.6m) :

38-foldincreasefrom 2005traffic


2004 data source: www.telegeography.com

0.18 Tbit/s47 Tbit/s

0.5 Tbit/s95 Tbit/s

Global internet fiber routes: 2004 to 2025

0.066 Tbit/s25 Tbit/s

20042025 20% yearly growth

ULH performance roadmap (2025) : 50-100Tbit/s per fiber pair


Installed-fiber indicator (1996-2007)

• 2000 bubble, before & after : “U.S. fiber/cable markets will not return to past growth rates, and quantities will remain below the peak of 2000 through the decade” *

0

20

40

60

80

100

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Mill

ion

fiber

-km

/ ye

ar World total

US

* and 1997-2007 data:KMI Research, 2002

10 Mkm/y=

317 m/s> csound !

9%

17%

fiber glut

bubble pops

recovery

back to 2-digits growth (US)


Installed fiber, scenarios through 2025

• 2007-2025:(conservatively) assume+20% YoY growth for US+10% YoY growth for RoW

0

100

200

300

400

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ions

fibe

r-km

/ ye

ar

World total

US

ROW• Equal markets in 2019 :

2 times 2000 level !Driving factors:> US: - primarily: Atlantic/Pacific links + backbone infrastructure- secondarily: deployment of FTTx/PON = “low-cost”BB optical solutions for E&R> Rest of the World:- primarily: ubiquitous infrastructure deployment+ core/metro/access- secondarily: undersea

• 2020-2025: market saturation or second bubble ?


FTTPremise-xPON deployment indicator (1/3)

• FTTP-BPON/EPON subscription fees to become competitive over xDSL with 100M-1Gbit/s symmetric offer..

• 2004-2010: aggressive FTTP roll-outs in Japan (NTT, KDDI..) and US (Verizon, SBC..), to be followed (more slowly?) by EU-25

• Difficulties to estimate long-term growth: - “house passed” is not “subscriber” (factor 3 to 4 overestimate)- 2005-2015: FTTx service adoption to remain well below xDSL (10-40Mbit/s), 5% in 2009*

• But new enterprise/residential/ private services to appear in 2010-2025 and massive deployment at end-user cost similar to xDSLmay boost FTTx adoption

* source: RHK, sept. 2004


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Hom

es p

asse

d (m

illio

ns)

Eu-25

Japan

US

Total


• Test case: combine predictions till 2010 concerning- EU-25*- Japan (NTT)**- US (SBC+Verizon)***

• Yields 70M home passedin 2010, or 17-23M subscribers

• New installed fiber : (3.5m/home)****245,000 km

• Combined 2010 traffic (100Mbit/s @50%) : 425-575Tbit/s

Sources: *Yankee Group, sept. 2004; **FTTH Council, 2004; *** Press/announcements; **** =38,8000 miles /18 million homes

23%/Y



• Worlwide FTTP deployment: assume steady growth (23-15-10%/Y) from 2010 to 2025…

• Homes passed :1.52 Billion (19%)555 Million (7%)285 Million (3%)(% of 2025 world population*)

• New fiber installed (max):5.32 Mkm

• Total 2025 traffic (max): (100Mbit/s @50%)19-25 Pbit/s

* ie: 8 billions, see World population estimate 1950-2050, http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/world.html

1

10

100

1000

10000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Hom

es p

asse

d (M

illio

ns)

23%/Y

15%/Y10%/Y

1,520

555285


74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06

10

1/1000

100

10

1/1000

100

10

1/1000

100

Cap

acity

x d

ista

nce

(bi

t.km

/s)

year

PETA

TERA

GIGA

MEGA

FEC (>1999)

0.8 µm MMF1.3µm SMF

1.5µm DSFcoherent

100

108

10 every 4 years?

EDFAWDM

DM, C+L

1000

© J.Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2004

Raman

The capacity-distance view

• Optical Moore’s law : 30 years after


The optical Moore’s Law / are we sure ? (1/2)

• CxD trend of 10-fold increase every 4 years :

skmPbitDCY

/.2178.5 053.12000?

???

2009

1936

0.19

2013

26,951

2.69

2017

375,055

37.5

2021

5,219,263

521

2005

139

0.01

skmPbitDC /.,?

sPbitC /,(10,000 km

transoceanic link)

year 2025

72,631,164

7,263

7 millions Tbits/s


The optical Moore’s Law / revisited

1,E-08

1,E-06

1,E-04

1,E-02

1,E+00

1,E+02

1,E+04

1,E+06

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Cap

acity

(T

bit/s

)

optical Moore’s L

aw

incrementaltechnology

100Tbit/s

Tra

nsoc

eani

c7x106Tbit/s

disruptivetechnology

75.3/ 210

Y

sPbitKmDC ???3.75 years = 45months


• Year 2025 “extra-conservative” fiber-capacity prediction:

100 Tbit/s over 10,000 km 1 Pbit/s over 1,000 km10 Pbit/s over 100 km

• Key question:

Can 2005 Lightwave Communications experts confirm right now wethersuch performance is theoretically possible ?

The optical Moore’s Law / revisited

Tbit/s =


? (nm)

Atte

nuat

ion

coef

ficie

nt (

dB/k

m)

OHpeak

1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700

30nm(1530-1560)

25nm(1295-1320)

LC

OE

S

80nm(1340-1420)

0.4

0.3

0.2

minimal attenuation=minimal ASE

U/XL

10x moredB lossper 100km

60nm(1630-1690)

Fiber bandwidth

bendingloss

EDFA

Raman

© E.Desurvire et al., J.Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2004

60nm(1420-1480)

40nm(1575-1615)

200nm=23.5 THz

Raman

400nm=54.5 THz


Fiber bandwidth: superband exploitation scenario

? (nm)

(dB

/km

)

1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700

0.4

0.3

0.2

Assumption: Two fiber pairs of priority traffic (2X usable fiber capacity) + 2:2 protection

Superband capacity upgrade: M-ary formats (M=4,8,16..)

400nm=54.5 THzPhase II(2025)superband B

Phase II, 2025: superband B (about 50 THz): 100 Tbit/s RZ

200nm=23.5 THzPhase I(2015)superband A

Phase I, 2015: superband A (about 25THz): 50 Tbit/s RZ


Effect of modulation format

• QAM and PSK M-aries makepossible to reach ISDsmuch greater than 1 bit/s/Hz

• But lots of signal levels ! (e.g. >256 for 10 bit/s/Hz)

• And coherent receiversrequired, making implementationcomplex and demanding very high fiber linearity (AM, PM)

• High ISD requires high SNR-1

-0,8

-0,6

-0,4

-0,2

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

Bit SNR (dB)

Info

rmat

ion

spec

tral d

ensi

ty L

OG

(bit/

s/H

z)

M=

2

4

8

1632

64128

128

64

32

16

84

FS K

PSK

QAM

BER =10-3 to 10-11

10 bit/s/Hz

1 bit/s/Hz

IM-DD


Information spectral density: the Shannon limit

don’t

even

think

abou

t it


CONCLUSION (1/2)

• Traffic growth over the next 20 years phenomenal compared to the past 30 years (+115%/Y world average)

• But serious problem of installed capacity exhaustion in 3.5-7 years ?

• Ultra-conservative scenario:- 20% installed capacity growth for undersea links- 25% Internet growth

> yields rock-bottom need for 50-100Tbit/s per fiber pair in 2025

> Implementation needs “superbands” concept phase I/II(yet in two priority-traffic fiber pairs)

> 10/20-y challenge: achieve 50-100THz commercial systems


Optical (fiber) bandwidth is not infinite

Optical Moore’s law is now meaningless and misleading

20-y objectives can only be reached though tech-driven researchand there is an urgent need to get started

CONCLUSION (2/2)

Thank you for your kind attention !

Disclaimer :

This presentationbeing essentially speculative,conclusions may not be used

towards any business purposes


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

mean signal photon number <n0 >

SN

R

purelynon-linear

purely linear

model 1

model 2 (exact, approx.)

32

max 232

???

????

??

N

th

PP

SNR

Effect of WDM nonlinearity (binary)

1: Stark-Mithra, 2001(Nature)

2: Desurvire, 2002(ECOC’02)

Information spectral denity: nonlinearity limits


The capacity of theoptical channel cannot be indefinitely increased with signal powersince SNR is boundedby a maximum limit which is function of the nonlinearity thresholdof the channel

Emmanuel Desurvire

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