Emission projections for NEC Gases – Ireland’s approach Stephan Leinert, Bernard Hyde, Eimear...
-
Upload
silvester-craig -
Category
Documents
-
view
214 -
download
0
Transcript of Emission projections for NEC Gases – Ireland’s approach Stephan Leinert, Bernard Hyde, Eimear...
Emission projections for NEC Gases –
Ireland’s approach
Stephan Leinert, Bernard Hyde, Eimear Cotter
Overview
Introduction General approach Transport Agriculture Solvents Conclusions
Approach to emissions projections for NEC gases
Consistency with national energy forecast
Consistency with GHG projections
Consistency with inventories (e.g. emission factors, car fleet mileage)
Emissions
Energy related: Power generation Road transport Industrial combustion Residential Commercial &
Institutional Services Fuel use in
agriculture
Non-energy related: Agriculture (NH3) Agriculture (NMVOC) Solvent emissions
Storage and distribution of oil products
Source category (green: non energy related) NOx SO2 NMVOC NH3
Energy Industries
Power Generation X X X
Oil Refining X X X
Peat briquetting X X X
Industry
Industrial Combustion X X X
Solvent and Other Product Use X
Transport
Road Transport X X X X
Domestic and International Aviation (LTO’s) X X X
Rail Transport X X X
Navigation X X X
Other Transport (Pipeline Compressors) X
Residential X X X
Commercial and Institutional Services X X X
Agricultural Combustion X X X
Storage and Distribution of Oil Products (Fugitive emissions) X
Agriculture
Manure Management X
Agricultural Soils X X
Source categories for projections
Energy Forecast – Institutional/procedural arangements
ESRIEconomic and Social
Research Institute
SEISustainable Energy
Ireland
EPAEnvironmental Protection
Agency
ESRIEnergyForecast
ESRIMacroeconomic
ForecastSEI
National EnergyForecasts
Policy assumptions
EPA• Disaggregate fuel data• Apply emission factors
=> NEC projections
Emission Scenarios
With Measures emission projectionAll existing policies and measures
• Baseline energy forecast published December 2008 • Projected animal numbers – produced November 2008
With Additional Measures emission projectionAll existing and planned policies and measures
• White Paper energy forecast published December 2008
Economic Shock Sensitivity Analysis on With Measures scenario to show impact of the more recent economic deterioration
Assumptions underpinning Energy Forecasts
With Measures and With Additional Measures projectionsare both based on ESRI Credit Crunch Scenario (2008).
Economic Shockis based on a sensitivity study on the With Measures scenario, to give an indication of the impact of a further contraction in the economy
NOx inventories and projections
NOx / kt 1990 2007
Power Generation 46.37 27.03 -42%
Residential & Commercial 7.78 7.33 -6%
Industrial 9.79 19.37 98%
Agriculture & Forestry 9.37 10.99 17%
Transport 51.28 55.21 8%
Other 1.61 0.98 -39%
Total 126.22 120.91 -4%
Strong decrease in Powergen NOx emissions both absolute and as fraction of total; projected to continue
Increase of Transport NOx emissons both absolute and as fraction of total
Transport NOx emissions projected to decrease in absolute terms; will still be major contributing sector
Overview
Introduction General approach Transport Agriculture Solvents Conclusions
Road transport – general approach
Using COPERT 4, v6.1 Input: population, mileage etc Consistency with last year’s inventory –
e.g. mileage and speeds Consistency/agreement within about 1%
of statistical fuel consumption (energy forecast) and calculated fuel consumption (COPERT)
COPERT input – car population
Car fleet: Start from last inventories population Apply decay factor (function of age of car) Grow total in line with growth in fuel
usage (as a starting point) Newly registered cars as differential
between total car number and existing cars
Assume new cars meet the required standards
COPERT input – car population
2007: last inventory year
decay +20% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40%
car fleet projection - decay rate
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012year
nu
mb
er
car
s /
100
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Firstregistration
inventory projection
COPERT input – car population
2007: last inventory year
decay +20% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40%
fuel +5% 0% +5% +10% +5% +5%
car fleet projection - example
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012year
nu
mb
er
ca
rs /
10
00
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
Firstregistration
projection
COPERT input – LDV, HDV, bus, coach
LDV similar to cars HDV total number growth at fixed rate
(rather than in line with fuel forcast) Buses/coaches total number growth at
fixed rate (average over last few years)
Road transport – different scenarios
With Measures (Baseline) scenario is constructed first
With Additional Measures (White Paper) and Economic Shockare derived from With Measures scenario
using With Measures fleet populationadjusting mileage to achieve agreement
between statistical fuel use (energy forecast) and calculated fuel use (COPERT)
Road transport – challenges
Balance the aim for consistency with energy forecast, and consistency with e.g. inventory
Fuel tourism Data availability
Other transport
Rail is not included in the energy forecast. Emission projections are developed in consultation with Irish Rail.
Aviation not included in the energy forecast. Emission projections are developed in consultation with Dublin Airport Authority.
Navigation emissions are assumed to stay constant.
Agriculture“There are a lot of sheep in Ireland…”
Agriculture“There are a lot of sheep in Ireland…”
Reality is that cattle outnumber sheep – and NH3 emissions associated with cattle make up about 80% of NH3 emissions.
NH3 – Agriculture contribution
Almost all NH3 from agriculture Around 80% attributable to cattle, very stable Further decrease for total NH3 emissions
projected Fraction attributable to cattle staying at about
80%
NH3 / kt 1990 1999 2007
Cattle 90 100 84
Total 110 125 106
Approach – Projections Input Data
Projected animal numbers, crop areas and fertiliser use statisticsFAPRI – Ireland PartnershipFood and Agriculture Policy Research
Institute
Produce objective analysis of agricultural policy options based on economic models of commodity markets
Advantages of Irish Approach(Agriculture)
Use of inventory model to project forward
Data required and supplied generally at aggregation of the inventory
Transparent and straight-forward
Easy to implement sub-sector changes and examine scenarios
Overview
Introduction General approach Transport Agriculture Solvents Conclusions
Solvents and other product use
i. Paint applicationii. Degreasing and Dry CleaningPer capita emissions are assumed constant, thus growth in line with population growth.
iii. Chemical Productsiv. Other Solvent UsesPer capita emissions were declining since 1990 – trend assumed to go forward.
Overview
Introduction General approach Transport Agriculture Solvents Conclusions
Overall conclusions:Advantages of Irish Approach
Consistency with inventories/historic dataEmission factorsSame model (e.g. NH3 agriculture, road
traffic/COPERT)
Consistency with national energy forecast Consistency with GHG projections
Overall conclusions:Disadvantages of Irish Approach
Requires detailed activity data statistics (e.g. agriculture)
Transport projection is not straight forward
Fuel tourism causes conflict between Consistency with energy forecast for fuel and realistic car population/mileage
Energy forecast currently at aggregated level (no breakdown within fuel types yet)
Thank you for your attention.
Approach – Inventory Input Data
Cattle Sheep PoultryDairy cows Lowland ewes LayersSuckler cows Upland ewes BroilersMale cattle < 1 yearRams TurkeysMale cattle 1-2 years LambsMale cattle > 2 years Other livestockFemale cattle < 1 year Pigs HorsesFemale cattle 1-2 years Sows in pig Mules and AssesFemale cattle > 2 years Sows for breeding GoatsBulls for breeding Gilts in pigDairy in-calf heifers Gilts notyet served Other DataBeef in-calf heifers Fattening pigs < 20kg Manure Management statistics
Fattening pigs > 20kg Fertilzer use statisticsNH3 emission estimates
Sludge application to land