Emerging trends for DRM

This work was carried out with the aid of a grant from the International Development Research Centre, Canada.

Sriganesh Lokanathan

Workshop on ICT for Promoting Inclusive and Disaster Resilient Development

Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

14th May 2015

ICTs play a role in all aspects of the disaster lifecycle….

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…but today I will concentrate on 3 emergent trends

1. New data sources of relevance

– Big data and specifically mobile network big data

2. Thinking about infrastructure holistically

– Smart grids

3. “Antifragility”

– i.e. coming back stronger than before

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Mobile Network Big Data has a lot of relevance for DRM

• Big Data = data sets that cannot be processed using traditional data-processing applications and techniques

• It can provide timely information of relevance to disaster recovery as well as disaster risk reduction

• It can also provide timely information on human behavioral patterns such as migration, mobility, social networks, etc.

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Facilitating recovery efforts: POC from Haiti

Post-earthquake distribution of Port au Prince (Haiti) population after the 2010 earthquake: The figure shows the number of people estimated to have been in Port-au-Prince (PaP) on the day of the 2010 Haiti earthquake, but outside the capital 19 days later. The circles represent the numbers of people who were displaced.

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Source: Bengtsson, L., Lu, X., Thorson, A., Garfield, R., & von Schreeb, J. (2011). Improved

response to disasters and outbreaks by tracking population movements with mobile phone

network data: a post-earthquake geospatial study in Haiti. PLoS Medicine, 8(8), e1001083.

doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001083

MNBD for planning: Population density changes in Colombo region Pictures depict the change in population density at a particular time relative to midnight

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Weekd

ay

Su

nd

ay

Decrease in Density Increase in Density

Time 18:30 Time 12:30 Time 06:30

MNBD for planning: 46.9% of Colombo City’s daytime population comes from the surrounding regions

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Home DSD %age of Colombo’s daytime population

Colombo city 53.1

1. Maharagama 3.7

2. Kolonnawa 3.5

3. Kaduwela 3.3

4. Sri Jayawardanapura Kotte

2.9

5. Dehiwala 2.6

6. Kesbewa 2.5

7. Wattala 2.5

8. Kelaniya 2.1

9. Ratmalana 2.0

10. Moratuwa 1.8

Colombo city is made up of Colombo and

Thimbirigasyaya DSDs

MNBD can help track the spread of infectious diseases (e.g. malaria in Kenya)

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Source: Wesolowski, A., Eagle, N., Tatem, A. J., Smith, D. L., Noor, A. M., Snow, R. W., &

Buckee, C. O. (2012). Quantifying the impact of human mobility on malaria. Science (New York,

N.Y.), 338(6104), 267–70. doi:10.1126/science.1223467

Lake

Victoria

Nairobi

Indian Ocean

The figure represents a visual mapping of malaria transmission routes. Each settlement was allocated to

one of twenty regions by a clustering based on homogenous malaria risk and geography (the different

color dots). Regions near Lake Victoria (LV), in Nairobi (Nairobi), the central areas (Cen), and along the

coast (C) are labeled accordingly. The background yellow and red colors, represents areas of high

malaria prevalence (in red) and those of low prevalence (in yellow)

MNBD gained renewed interest after the recent Ebola crises in W Africa

9 Also see http://www.worldpop.org.uk/ebola/

Potential use of big data for DRM

• MNBD can provide high-frequency and temporally granular insights on human mobility

– Useful for planning for disaster mitigation

– By understanding how people’s mobility responded to previous shocks can aid planning for future disasters

• Post-disaster recovery efforts can be greatly aided by knowing where the population has been displaced

– It is key therefore for the ICT infrastructure to be highly resilient

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Challenges in using big data for DRM

• Getting access:

– Often data belongs to private organizations and not amenable to open data policies

• Safeguarding privacy

• Where can the data reside?

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Thinking holistically about resilient infrastructure: electricity is key for ICTs & vice versa for smart grids

• Smart grids include communication systems that permit the supplier to know what is happening at the customer’s site and at the generating sites in real time

• Keeps track of all available power sources and demands on the network

• Uses ICTs to monitor and manage the distribution of electricity from transmission to end-users

• Thereby, responding efficiently to the demands of the user

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Allows for risk prone areas to be shielded from potential

cascading effects caused by disasters

Requires considerable investment, policy and market certainty

Plans for greater ICT resilience after Great Tohoku Earthquake & Tsunami

- Respect hazard maps created by local authorities

- Increased backup power at BTS

- Increased use of large-zone BTS (~7 Km radius)

- Main switch buildings relocated to 2nd floor of buildings with water gates on the ground floor

- Light-weight satellite antennas deployed on normal vehicles

- Prioritized network traffic to mitigate network congestion

- After a disaster voice, messages converted to files for transmission over the packet network

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NTT R&D on technologies to counter the effects of a disaster

• A telescopic joint and duct sleeve that can expand and contract to offset the tension along the axes of the conduits

• Gravel drains around manholes to equalize the effects of ground liquidizing (and therefore the potential surfacing of equipment)

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Policy Recommendations

• Leverage new data sources:

– Create space for innovations and unique collaborations

– Facilitate data access

• Engage with member governments to impress upon them the concepts of inter-dependent and critical infrastructures

• Support and enable policies conducive to the construction and operation of resilient mesh networks (for international backhaul) across the Asia Pacific

– E.g. facilitating the creation of terrestrial links such as APIS

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