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Emerging Technologies and Processes to Spur Lower Carbon
Trucks and Goods Movement
Clean Transportation Technologies and Solutions SM
Bill Van AmburgSenior Vice President
Future of Trucking Symposium
Winnipeg, Manitoba
February 18, 2010
Copyright CALSTART 2010 2
Agenda
• CALSTART Background
• Drivers of Change in Trucking
• Status of Advanced Technology for Trucks
• HTUF Process Commercializing Hybrids and High Efficiency Trucks
• Implications for Speeding Future Low Carbon Truck Pathways
Copyright CALSTART 2010 3
CALSTART
CALSTART is a unique non-profit, member-supported clean transportation organization. •Based in California; projects in North America; members
internationally.
Founded: 1992 as a public-private partnership to launch and grow a clean transportation industry.
Mission: via programs and services, supporting and expanding the growth of a clean transportation technologies industry that will:
• Create high-quality jobs;
• Clean the air;
• Reduce dependence on foreign oil; and
• Reduce global warming emissions
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CALSTART Has Broad Industry/Public
Sector Support (partial list)
Copyright CALSTART 2010 5
CALSTART: A Strategic Broker for Advanced Transportation
National and International in Project Areas
2010130+ Worldwide Member and
Participant Network
3 Offices in US
Four focus areas:
Tech Commercialization
Fleet, Port Consulting
Industry Services
Policy Development
Copyright CALSTART 2010 6
Integrated Solutions
Air Quality
Climate ChangeEnergy Security
We must find solutions that
address all three
competing needs
Integrated Solutions Needed
There is no one
“Silver
Bullet”
solution
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Trends & Drivers of Change
• ENERGY SECURITY: FUEL SUPPLY AND COSTS –Traditional fuel supplies/refining capacity barely meeting current demand
– The need for biofuels is increasing but so are questions about their impacts/benefits
– RFS2 rules at federal level – Biofuels grow as fuel blends; 2nd gen biofuels emerging
– Rise of non-traditional hydrocarbons possible – but have serious impacts
– Regional fuel variation and choice becoming more prevalent
– Alternatives becoming economically competitive with petroleum but have own costs
• GLOBAL WARMING – Push to reduce GHGs intensifying and pushing fuel economy – focus and urgency increasing
– EPA now says GHG is a health danger – can regulate under clean air act
– California CO2 tailpipe rules approved by new EPA
– CAFÉ revised to match CA CO2 rules: CAFÉ for med & heavy trucks being developed
– States/communities remain GHG leaders – Calif AB 32 increases momentum
– Energy efficiency reduces GHG impact; Fuel switching and blending reduces GHG impact; Modal split (transit and rail) has long term role
• EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS – World population increasingly urban and world emission standards increasingly move to CA/Euro standards
– EU and US may align in 2012-2015 timeline
– Fine particulates (nano particles) will be of increasing concern from combustion
– Diesel fuel still challenged in dirtiest regions (ports, Southern California)
Copyright CALSTART 2010 8
New IBM Truck Study Sees Challenges,
Opportunities, Need for Rapid Change
• Unveiled its Truck 2020: Transcending Turbulencereport at HTUF 2009
• Signaled transition of truck industry to high-tech industry
• Need to invest now in new technology (hybridization, telematics); form partnerships and new supply chain; add new skills to work force, leadership
IBM Vice President, Global
Automotive Sanjay Rishi
presents Truck 2020
findings
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Truck World is Changing
• Significant improvement in emissions via 2010 rules – but big increase in cost– Has engaged bulk of truck maker engineering talent
– Fuel economy on back burner in this period
• Large new push to improve fuel efficiency because of fuel price shocks (but without increasing emissions)– Truck fuel economy standards coming in US by 2016
• Carbon (global warming) emissions of rising importance because of large fuel use in trucks – One efficient truck can cut 24X more fuel than a car
– US EPA close to issuing carbon tailpipe limits for trucks
• Ports and key regions (example: California) driving force for rapidly upgrading trucks (on emissions but not efficiency!)
• Has led to a blossoming of new lower-emitting, higher-efficiency technology and fuels – some entering early production NOW
HTUF 2009:
EXPANSION OF ADVANCED TRUCKS
HTUF 2009
Copyright CALSTART 2010 11
Hybrid Vehicles – A First Step
• A hybrid uses more than one source of stored
energy to drive and do work
• Can add significant efficiency to vehicle
performance
– Very good in driving cycles with stop and go,
delivery, high idling times
• Several hybrid versions
– hybrid electric (batteries)
– hybrid hydraulic (hydraulic pressure accumulators)
– Plug-in hybrids have larger batteries, can partially
recharge off electric grid
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Benefits of Hybrid Truck Technology
to U.S. and Canada
• Hybridization provides
significant immediate benefits– ENERGY SECURITY: Reduced fuel
consumption (30-50%)
– EMISSIONS/CLIMATE: Reduced
criteria (NOx) and GHG emissions
(10-60%)
• One of few strategies to improve
on 2010 emissions reductions
– ECONOMY: North American
leadership in technology,
manufacturing
Fuel consumption reduction from HTUF field testing data
Reductions come just from
hybrid system, no additional
after-treatment
CO2 reductions closely
tracked fuel reduction
percentages
Emissions/fuel reduction from HTUF dyno testing data performed at SwRI
Copyright CALSTART 2010 13
Industry Transformation: Hybrid Trucks
Now Entering Market
DevelopmentPre-Production
Production IntentEarly Production
Test prototypes
and systems
Field pilot
assessments
(10-50 vehicles)
Assembly line
builds up to 100+
Initial commercial
volumes – still high
incremental cost
TO
OL
S:
R&D Support
Pre-Production Deployment Support (HTUF)
Purchase Incentives
10 years behind cars but industry is real, momentum growing – 8 years ago there
were no hybrid trucks before CALSTART’s HTUF process
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Regional Heavy and Line Haul
Advanced Trucks
• Kenworth, Peterbilt, Navistar and Freightliner all have Class 8 regional haul hybrid tractors
– All developing next generation advanced Class 8 – including electric and hybrid configurations
• Mack showcased advanced hybrid line haul Class 8 (full 80,000 lb GVWR); next stages add more electrification; Peterbilt has several in demonstration
Copyright CALSTART 2010 15
Hybrid Tractors Emerging for Regional
Heavy Applications
• Kenworth unveils Class 7/8 hybrid tractor: 54,500 lbs GCVW
• Peterbilt has similar model –also continuing to test larger Class 8 heavy-duty OTR tractor
• Navistar unveils Class 7/8 hybrid tractor targeting beverage trailer applications
• Freightliner announces will pilot build a hybrid tractor Dec 08
Above: Kenworth Class 8 tractor;
Below: Navistar Class 7/8 tractor
Left: Freightliner Class 7/8 tractor pilot; right, Peterbilt
Class 7/8 tractor
Copyright CALSTART 2010 16
Wal-Mart Class 8 Demo
• ArvinMeritor – Navistar deliver unique dual-mode hybrid design for testing
• Electric drive at lower speeds (up to 48 mph), blended mode at higher speeds
• Can greatly reduce fuel use, cut idle and give zero emission at ports, urban driving
• Wal-Mart testing this truck and several Peterbilt-Eaton trucks in line-haul and regional heavy haul applications
• Wal-Mart committed to doubling its fleet fuel efficiency by 2015
•
Copyright CALSTART 2010 17
Hydraulic Hybrids Coming of Age
• Several pre-production and near production models shown: Eaton, Bosch Rexroth, Parker
• Parallel and Series architecture
• FCCC – Parker series parcel strip chassis showed impressive integration, potential fuel savings
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All Electric Drive Trucks Emerging
• Oshkosh HEMMT military heavy transport and support truck
– Series hybrid electric drive system with ultracap energy buffer
• Capacity “PHETT”– Plug-in, series hybrid design
• Balqon all-electric port trucks– Up to 40-60 miles range
• Freightliner Custom Chassis and Enova electric parcel truck (in testing)
• Smith “Newton” electric truck (in early production)
• Navistar/Modec electric truck (in early production Q1 2010)
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Hybrid Medium Duty Trucks Expand
to Both New & Heavier Applications
• Navistar extends weight class from 23,500 to 37,000 lbs (into Class 8 range)– 6 engine horsepower/ torque
combinations
– Showcases hybrids for tree-trimming, wrecker, dump, crane and beverage
• Peterbilt adds dump truck variant to cargo and utility body
• Freightliner shows M2 delivery and beverage bodies, new bus and RV platforms
• Posi Plus shows tandem axle utility truck to 40,000 lbs
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Plug in Hybrid Trucks Emerge:
Several Utility Industry Variants
• Commercial work trucks show potential for PHEV functionality before cars
• Extra energy storage boosts idle reduction/work site engine-off ops
• Diesel fuel costs cause rapid review of potential business case– Energy Storage costs still high
• Dueco-Odyne first into market– Plug-in hybrid utility bucket trucks
– PHEV “digger-derrick” version 6/08, a higher power-demand work truck
– Trucks carry 35 kwh of energy storage (lead-acid, 3000 pounds) for long work site ops
– PHEV underground compressor truck
• Eaton has two prototypes– Class 6/7 variant based on production
truck, system
– Class 5 “Superduty” prototype with EPRI
Dueco-Odyne plug-
in “material
handler” (above),
“digger-derrick”
(middle),
compressor truck
(bottom).
Plug-in port
Eaton PHEV
utility trucks
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Expanding Choice of Natural Gas
Engines, Trucks
• CARB/EPA certified Westport’s
High Pressure Direct Injection
(HPDI) NG technology for
Cummins heavy-duty engine
• Kenworth expands to LNG
vehicles with T800 LBG trucks
• Freightliner producing CNG
version of its Business Class M2
• Mack brings natural gas refuse
truck back to market
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Renewable Natural Gas – Lowest
Carbon Fuel
• Trucks driving on natural gas produced from dairy manureoperating in San Joaquin Valley
• Process produces and refines manure biogas to “biomethane” – essentially renewable (green) natural gas
• Very low in overall carbon emissions
• Natural gas-hybrids becoming possible
Dairy partners – Hilarides Dairy, Hilmar Cheese
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Adjusted Carbon Intensity Values for
Diesel & Substitutes
Fuel Pathway Direct ILUC EER Total
Diesel (1 pathway: average ULSD) 94.71 0 1 94.71
Compressed Natural Gas (CA and N.
American, compressed in CA)
67.70 –
68.0
0 0.9 75.22 –
75.56
Compressed Natural Gas (landfill gas,
or biomethane)
11.26 0 0.9 12.51
Electricity (2 pathways – CA average
and renewable mix)
104.70 -
124.10
0 2.7 38.78 –
45.96
Hydrogen (4 pathways – liquid &
compressed, various feedstocks)
76.10 –
142.20
0 1.9 40.05 –
70.84
Carbon intensity values are measured in grams CO2e/MJ
10 pathways completed
Copyright CALSTART 2010 24
Hybrid Truck
Users Forum (HTUF)
• User-driven process to commercialize medium- and heavy-duty hybrid trucks
• Joint CALSTART-U.S. Armyprogram (RDECOM-TARDEC-NAC)– Also supported by Hewlett Foundation,
support from DOE, DOT
• HTUF focuses on commercializing hybrid trucks with dual-usebenefits – Speed commercialization and reduce
overall costs by creating common fleet requirements, joint purchase commitments, increasing volumes
All Major Truck Makers and
System Suppliers involved (partial list)
80/120 attendee 172 attendees 250 attendees 275 attendees 330 attendees 430 attendees 550 attendees 550 attendees
3/5 hybrid ride & drive 7 hybrid ride & drive 14 hybrid ride & drive 13 hybrid ride & drive 14 hybrid ride & drive 19 hybrid ride & drive 36 hybrid ride & drive 30 vehicles
HTUF Actions Lead
Hybrid Industry Progress
2002
No major truck
makers
involved in
commercial
hybrids – OEMs
skeptical
Military hybrid
demos: HMMWV
and FMTV
First HTUF
Working Group
launches (utility)
First HTUF
Forums:
Allison hosts 1;
Enova/EVS 2
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Indianapolis
Forum 1
Chattanooga
Forum 2
San Antonio
Forum 3
Kalamazoo
Forum 4
Toledo
Forum 5San Diego
Forum 6
Seattle
Forum 7
So. Bend
Forum 8
2008 2009
Atlanta
Forum 9
Hybrid transit
buses grow in
market
FedEx
hybrids
testing
Parcel &
beverage
working
groups launch
Utility WG
agrees to
common
KPPs
SwRI and
Stewart &
Stevenson
host HTUF
Forum 3
OEM interest
growing – first
FedEx trucks
delivered
Utility WG
issues and
awards 24
hybrid truck
RFP
Utility hybrid
“validation”
truck
delivered
Eaton and
International
host HTUF
Forum 4
Hydraulic
hybrid
development
expands
FTTS
underway
EPA test
protocol started
Validation
testing of utility
hybrid shows
significant fuel
savings
Refuse , bus
working groups
launch
Dana hosts
HTUF Forum 5
Peterbilt and
Freightliner
unveil pre-
production
hybrids
First Class 8
hybrid data
Oshkosh
prototype
refuse truck
24 utility
hybrids
deployed with
fleets
Positive
results leads
to orders for
100 more
ISE & Siemens
host HTUF
Forum 6 – all
truck makers
attend
First plug in
utility truck
100 utility
hybrids in
delivery –
International
begins
commercial
production
Refuse &
parcel groups
select suppliers
pre-production
Class 8 and
incentives
working groups
Paccar
(Kenworth/
Peterbilt) host
HTUF Forum 7
Peterbilt,
Kenworth,
Freightliner
and Azure
enter low-
volume
commercial
hybrid
production
6 working
groups active
Construction
Equip Forum
launches
Bosch
Rexroth hosts
HTUF Forum
8
1,500+
coml.
hybrid
trucks
ordered or
delivered –
all truck
makers
active
Calif.
approves
hybrid
incentives
Hybrid on
Hill event
Refuse WG
testing HEV
and HHV
Bus WG
selects
supplier
Southern
Company
(user) hosts
HTUF
Forum 9
Ind
ustr
y S
tatu
sH
TU
F A
cti
vit
ies
Copyright CALSTART 2010 26
HTUF Working Groups Today
• 6 Core Working Groups of fleet truck users now operating, plus:
– 1 new Forum: Construction equip
– 1 Task Force: Plug-in HE Trucks (PHET)
• Main Working Groups:– Utility/Telco trucks – George Survant, Florida Power
& Light, user lead
– Parcel Delivery trucks – Jerry Swart, FedEx Ground; Robert Hall, UPS – user leads
– Refuse Truck Working Group – Matt Stewart, City of Chicago Sanitation, user lead
– Bus Working Group – Tony Bryant, Tri-Met, user lead (launched with support of Federal Transit Administration)
– Class 8 Working Group – active
– Incentives Working Group – active – exploring industry funding to support
Copyright CALSTART 2010 27
HTUF Forums & WGs: A Market
Development & Transformation Process
• HTUF Forums are North America’s primary hybrid and high efficiency truck industry meetings
• The HTUF process has sped market introduction by 2-5 years (5 years according to fleets)
• The Forums uniquely bring together the full range of key stakeholders in one place:
– fleet vehicle users (commercial and military)
– vehicle manufacturers
– suppliers and technology developers
– regulators
– researchers
– NGOs
• The Forums provide the clearest window on industry status and reality; technology developments; field-test data and real-world performance evaluations; hands-on experience via ride-and-drives; and developing the action agenda for the industry.
Copyright CALSTART 2010 28
Hybrid Trucks: at “Tipping Point” but
Need Help to Speed Early Market
• Hybrid truck production volumes are still too low in early
market to realize price reductions
– Current payback period too long even with big fuel/maintenance
savings
• However: modest volumes can move prices to within
business cases needs: Need 3,000 - 5,000 unit sales/year
– Incentives can provide big kick-start to this number by
helping drive volume up in targeted effort
• Federal, state level
• Need correct incentives to bridge gap between
today’s price and prices at higher volumes
– Federal tax credits well-intentioned but not best tool for commercial
fleets: too low, doesn’t help most fleets
Hybrids moving from development to production
Copyright CALSTART 2010 29
Incentives to Move the Market
• www.californiahvip.org
Copyright CALSTART 2010 30
• Program recommended by CALSTART and HTUF – based on what needed to change purchase decision for fleet, speed market
• CARB staff crafted extremely simple program – incentives target half the incremental cost of today’s hybrids
• $19.4M invested for year 1 – CALSTART managing
• TO DATE: more than $8.6M in vouchers requested for roughly 300 hybrid trucks and buses (just two weeks of operation!)– Bulk of vehicles to date Class 8a hybrid tractors!
Hybrid Truck & Bus Voucher
Incentive Program (HVIP)
Copyright CALSTART 2010 31
Proposed Hybrid Truck Tax Credits
Levin Bill (HR 3367)
Extends Credit for Five Years and Doubles Credit Amounts
Vehicle Weight Demonstrated Fuel Economy Gain
Max Credit for a Fuel Efficiency Increase of:
20% 30% 40% 50%
8,500 - 14,000 lb n/a $3,000 $4,500 $6,000
14,001 - 26,000 lb n/a $6,000 $9,000 $12,000
26,000 - 33,000 lb n/a $12,000 $18,000 $24,000
>33,000 lb $10,000 $20,000 $24,000 $24,000
*Maximum allowable qualified incremental cost [Sec. 30B(d)(2)(B)(iii) as modified]:8,501 – 14,000 lb $15,00014,001 – 26,000 lb $30,00026,001 – 33,000 lb $60,00033,001 lb and above $100,000
*Credit amounts allowed for efficiency increases [Sec. 30B(d)(2)(B)(ii) as modified]:A 20% fuel economy increase can apply for 10% of qualified incremental cost (>33K lb only)A 30% fuel economy increase can apply for 20% of qualified incremental costA 40% fuel economy increase can apply for 30% of qualified incremental costA 50% fuel economy increase can apply for 40% of qualified incremental cost
Deployment, Testing
& Production Ramp-up
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Early
Production:
500+ Truck
Deploy
Launches
Commercial
Phase
Testing
Evaluation
Validation
First Commercial Volumes
Capabilities Enhancement
4+ hybrid system
suppliers each at
min. 2500
system/year
volumes
6 truck/ chassis
OEMs active
Industry volume
20k hybrids/year
Technology Enhancement
Increased Truck Volume Refuse Hybrid Segment
Increased Truck Volume Shuttle Hybrid Segment
Increased Truck Volume Delivery Hybrid Segments
Increased Truck Volume Industrial Hybrid Segment
Increased Truck Volume Utility 5-7 Hybrid SegmentCo
mm
erc
ial
Veh
icle
sM
ilit
ary
Be
ne
fits
Outcomes:
Coml. Field Data Support FTTS/TWV Hybrid Decisions
Grow Experience, Volumes for Non-Tactical Base Hybrids
Coml. Industry capabilities support Mil Needs 40-50% fuel use
reductions per
vehicle
Increased
capabilities of
silent watch,
power gen
Increased Truck Volume Class 8 Hybrid Segment
Where Do We Go Next?
Hybrids & High Efficiency Trucks
CALSTART launching “CalHEAT” to address
Copyright CALSTART 2010 33
California Hybrid, Efficient and Advanced
Truck (CalHEAT) Research Center
• Help drive medium- and heavy-duty technology products to market that meet and exceed California climate and petroleum reduction goals
• Assist the nation meet needs for more efficient, reduced carbon medium and heavy-duty transport
• Help create economic activity in California through focused technology development and market initiatives
• Help improve the efficiency and reduce the impacts of goods movement in Southern California, and by extension California and North America
CalHEAT Goals
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Future Pressures: I-710 Zero-
Emission Freight Corridor Example
• Major corridor serving LA/Long Beach ports being expanded –developing freight-only lanes
• Community concerned about increasing emissions, health impacts – desire no emissions increase
• CALSTART and LA Co. Metropolitan Transportation Authority (Metro) exploring needs, process to develop zero-emission corridor over next 10 years
From: California Marine and Intermodal Transportation System Advisory Council (CALMITSAC)
Copyright CALSTART 2010 35
DevelopmentPre-Production
Production IntentEarly Production
Test prototypes
and systems
Field pilot
assessments
(10-50 vehicles)
Assembly line
builds up to 100+
Initial commercial
volumes – still high
incremental cost
TO
OL
S:
R&D Support
Pre-Production Deployment Support
Purchase Incentives
What is Needed to Speed Market
Transformation for Advanced HDVs?
Early
Production
Deployments (buy downs)
Working Group
Assessments(pre-production)
Tech Develop
& Demonstrate
Research &
Development
Commercialization “Continuum” – the Steps to Commercialization
CalHEAT Research
Center (PIER)
-Research to develop next
generation trucks; pipeline for
future AB 118 projects
HTUF Program w/ Army-NAC-National/state level actions
commercializing hybrid and
advanced trucks
CARB HVIP-$20M
Copyright CALSTART 2010 36
What’s Needed to Transition Trucks?
• Multi-year, coordinated plan; aligned investments, requirements, incentives and policies
• Need coordinated approach for commercialization– Support R&D consistently
– Deploy, assess and validate pre-production vehicles and share info
– Incentivize the business case in the early years
• Market “pull” critical– Focus on leading-edge User Needs – build support
to pull product through
Copyright CALSTART 2010 37
Meet us in St Louis!
March 9-10, 2010
CALSTART-NTEA joint
clean vehicle and fuels event for 2010
• ATTEND! Green Truck Summit is part of the larger Work Truck Show – the largest commercial truck show in North America – 8,000 attendees in 2009
• LEARN! 2-day Conference targets top emission, carbon and efficiency issues affecting trucks – sessions on all major fuels and technologies; policies; trends.
• PROFILE! Showcase your clean leadership – display in the CALSTART Clean tech and Fuels Pavilion; sponsor the Pavilion and Conference.
• REGISTER! www.ntea.com
• QUESTIONS? Contact Susan Romeo at: 626/744-5686 [email protected]
Copyright CALSTART 2010 38
Detroit, MI
10
Clean Transportation Technologies and Solutions SM
www.calstart.org
For info contact:
Bill Van Amburg(626) [email protected]