Some Reasons Why Emergencies Create Challenging Environments

David Alexander University College London

Complex interactions take place between cause and effect.

Resilience Resistance

Risk Susceptibility

Physical (including natural, built, technological)

Social (including cultural, political, economic

Environment Att

ribut

es

Source: McEntire 2001

Liabilities

Capa

bilities

VULNERABILITY

Organisational systems: management

Social systems: behaviour

Natural systems: function

Technical systems:

malfunction

Vulnerability Hazard

Resilienc

e

Political systems: decisions

Vulnerability

Total: life is generally precarious Economic: people lack adequate occupation Technological/technocratic: due to the riskiness of technology Delinquent: caused by corruption, negligence, etc. Residual: caused by lack of modernisation Newly generated: caused by changes in circumstances

Knowledge of community

vulnerability

Knowledge of hazards and their impacts

Knowledge of coping

capacity and resilience

Disaster Risk

Reduction

DRR

Uncertainty cannot always be transformed into probability or fact.

Cascading effects

Collateral vulnerability

Secondary disasters

Interaction between risks

Climate change

Probability

Indeterminacy

"Fat-tailed" (skewed) distributions of impacts

DETERMINISM Cause Effect

PROBABILITY (constrained uncertainty)

Cause Single, multiple or cascading effects

THE KNOWN

THE UNKNOWN

PURE UNCERTAINTY Causal relationship

unknown

Grey area

Organisation for disaster risk reduction must be integrated across broad areas of science and public administration.

Broader scope and outcomes

Changing objectives of emergency management

Civil Protection

Disaster Management

Resilience

Civil Contingencies Management

Disaster Risk Reduction

Major event management

Incident management

Population (community) protection

Hazard forecasting, monitoring, etc.

Plans, procedures, protocols

Human and material resources

Civil Defence Civil Protection

Instability threats

Enhanced natural hazards

Complex hazards

Natural hazards

Evolving strategic situation

Large technological

hazards

Evolving climate change

'Na-tech' (hybrid) hazards

Major geophysical

events

Top-down

Bottom-up

Organisation Resources

Self-organisation

Imposed organisation

Volunteerism

Community disaster planning

Laws, protocols, directives

Standards, norms, guidelines

Community resources

Governmental resources

Donations

International resources

needs to be shortened needs to be lengthened

preparation for the

next event

warning and

evacuation

recovery and reconstruction

repair of basic

services

emergency management and rescue

isolation

impact

needs to be strengthened Risk reduction and disaster mitigation

Scientists

Hazard

Evaluation

Administrators

Risk communication

Decision to warn

General Public

Warning

Protective action

The warning process

Organisational Social Technical

Technology creates a revolution in

disaster response and resilience,

but it also creates new vulnerability.

Technology as risk

mitigation

Technology as a source

of vulnerability

Research, development

and investment in technology

individual family peer group organisation community society international C

ultu

ral filter

Sociocentrism Technocentrism

Cultural filter

Risk management practices

Benign

Malignant

Technology as a source of risk reduction

Technology as an inadvertent source of risk

Technology as a deliberate source of risk

Ceaseless development of technology

Risk analysis

Risk assessment

Risk communication

Knowledge Perception

Institutional learning

Adaptation

Disaster threat

Risk management

Recovery from disaster is a political as much as a technical process.

ORGANISED RECONSTRUCTION

with permanent reurbanisation of the site

RECONSTRUCTION PLANS, HEARINGS, APPEALS

REDEVELOPMENT NEW DEVELOPMENT

ORGANISED FIRST-AID

TENTS MOBILE TRAILERS HOTELS SPONSORED OUT- MIGRATION

INFORMAL SHELTER PUBLIC BUILDINGS

SPONTANEOUS SOLUTIONS

BUSES AND AUTOMOBILES

ORGANISED RESETTLEMENT

with temporary urbanisation of the site

PREFAB CONTAINER HOMES PREFAB CHALET-STYLE HOUSING UNITS

EVACUATION

PRECAUTIONARY

pending survey

PERMANENT

pending resettlement

SEMI-PERMANENT

pending repair

DESTRUCTION OF HOUSING

Earth- quake

Political response

National

Regional

Local

Permanent reconstruction

Bad (functional problems)

Good (functionality maintained)

Elections

Amelioration

Political impact on reconstruction

Suff- ering

Reco- very Transitional

housing and settlement

Public image of politicians

A reconstruction model

Learning processes

Improved safety

Lesson learned

Change and innovation

Experience and theory

Recognition and comprehension

Lesson to be learned

• Unexpected event

• New circumstance

• Error • New

practice

BENIGN (healthy) at the service of the people

MALIGN (corrupt) at the service of vested interests

interplay dialectic

Justification Development

[spiritual, cultural, political, economic]

IDEOLOGY CULTURE

MAGNITUDE & FREQUENCY

KNOWLEDGE SCIENCE

LEGISLATION

IMPLEMENTATION

COMPLIANCE

LAG

LAG

LAG

CUMULATIVE LAG

EVENTS

Sustainability is at the heart of resilience.

RISKS daily: unemployment, poverty, disease, etc. major disaster: floods, storms, quakes, etc. emerging risks: pandemics, climate change

SUSTAINABILITY disaster risk reduction

resource consumption stewardship of the environment

economic activities lifestyles

SUSTAINABILITY

Uncertain future:

long-term trends climate change capacity to adapt

Livelihoods: diversity

and security

Hazards and risks: disaster

preparedness

Governance: democratic participation in decision

making

RESILIENCE: managing risks

adapting to change securing resources

Thank you for your attention!

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