EMERGENCE, ANTICIPATION AND MULTISIMULATION: BASES FOR CONFLICT SIMULATION TUNCER ÖREN M&SNet...

EMERGENCE, ANTICIPATION AND MULTISIMULATION:BASES FOR CONFLICT SIMULATION

TUNCER ÖRENM&SNet (McLeod Modeling and Simulation Network)SITE, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, [email protected]

FRANCESCO LONGOM&SNet (MSC-LES: Modeling & Simulation Center - Laboratory of Enterprise Solutions) University of Calabria, [email protected]

Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies

© Tuncer Ören 1

20th European Modeling & Simulation Symposium (EMSS’08)September 17 – 19, 2008

Campora S. Giovanni, Calabria, Italy

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Why Simulation of Conflict Processes?

1. To understand the mechanisms of conflict (to avoid/(to induce), to manage)1. To evaluate effects of different parameters on

conflicts (to manage)2. To provide experience to (future) decision

makers to train them to manage conflicts.

Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept. 2

Hypothesis

Multisimulation is a methodology which can be appropriate for the simulation studies of: • multi-aspect systems in general, and • conflict processes and • conflict management training, in particular.

Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept3

Multisimulation is a methodology which can be appropriate for the simulation studies of: • multi-aspect systems in general, and • conflict processes and for • conflict management training, in particular.

At this early stage of the research we offer only the rationale to support the hypothesis

Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 4

Hypothesis

Some facts about conflict processes

Based on:• Approaches to simulate conflict processes•Nature of conflict processes



Based on:• Approaches to simulate conflict processes1.Reactive2.Deliberative 3.Anticipatory•Nature of conflict processes



Approaches to simulate conflict processes:1.ReactiveDifferent (aspects) of the reactions based on:


• aspects of the conflict • severity of the conflict• personality of the affected people, of the decision makers • emotions• cultural background


Approaches to simulate conflict processes:2. Deliberative Different perception(s) based on deliberations modulated by:




Approaches to simulate conflict processes:3. Anticipatory (current image(s) of future)Different anticipations based on:



Based on:• Approaches to simulate conflict processes1.Reactive2.Deliberative 3.Anticipatory


We can say that conflict processes are multi-aspect.

Nature to conflict processes

Conflict processes are highly non-linear:f(a+b) ≠ f(a) + f(b)



Conflict processes are different than just complicated systems; they are complex systems.

Complex systems, hence conflicts have emergence.


Emergence ≠ appearance


Emergence is: "the arising of novel and coherent structures, patterns and properties during the process of self-organization of complex systems."


In non-linear systems:• “Similar causes can have different effects and different causes similar effects; •small changes of causes can have large effects •whereas large changes can also only result in small effects •but nonetheless it can also be the case that small causes have small effects •and large causes large effects. •Emergence is based on non-linear causality” (Arshinov & Fuchs, p. 7) Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 14

Emerged states and emerged transitions (which can have fuzzy representations)

in a state machine


a

b

c

dd

ef

g h

At a crossroad:


• At a crossroad several roads to take.• Similarly, after an interruption of the simulation study, several

simulations can be performed by using different models and/or experimental conditions.

• The simulations could be sequential; however, there are advantages of making them simultaneous.

(time advantage, resource-sharing parallel studies)

Multisimulation

Multisimulation is a methodology to allow simulation of several aspects of a system simultaneously.


Multisimulation


In some aspects of social system dynamics, during a simulation, completely new conditions may emerge and accordingly, • a simulation study may need to be interrupted,• models and/or experimental conditions may need to be replaced by a new ones and then• the simulation study would resume.

• In some cases, at the update instant of the simulation study, one may want to continue with two or more models under same or different experimental conditions.

Multisimulation


Multisimulation can also enhancepredictive displays

(by allowing several simultaneous simulations)


An agent-based system may also automatically select the “best” command (input) to the

system

Why use Multisimulation for the Study of Conflict Processes ?

1. To understand the multi-aspect mechanisms of conflicts (to avoid/(to induce), to manage)

(by simulating conflict processes under reactive, deliberative, and anticipatory conditions)1. To evaluate effects of different parameters on

conflicts (to manage)2. To provide experience to (future) decision makers

to train them to manage conflicts.


Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies

© Tuncer Ören 22

Many thanks for your attention!

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