EMECOin an era of

Climate Change

Lowestoft, UK, 2-3 June, 2009

The new Norwegian Marine Resource Act states that:

• Ecosystem approach to research and to knowledgebased Management

• Precautionary principle• Sustainable ecosystems• Habitats and biodiversity • Future generations• No threats to speciesand Norway is the world’s 2nd largest exporter of fish

Climate-physics

Fishing

Climate-physics

Many processes – we must chooseand understand the most important

Climate

”Oil activities” of potential harm for the marine ecosystems (+

birds)

Seismic surveysIncreased ship trafficSedimentation of mud from drillingProduced waterAccidental oil spillsAerial conflicts

Dimention of a 3D seismic array

©We ste rnG eco

Based on Beaugrand et al. (2002)

All zooplankton species from warm-temperate to

Arctic species have moved northwards from the cold

1960s to the present warm situation

Warm-temperate

Temperate

Sub-arctic

Arctic

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20002 .5

3

3 .5

4

4 .5

5

Tem

pe

ratu

re [

C]

o

Source: PINRO, Murmansk

Regional-scale climate periods in North Atlantic

Anthropogenic change

Internannual variability

Decadal-scale oscillations

Multidecadal-scale oscillations

Total ice cover in the Arctic

ROMS

Acidification of the ocean

Some scientific ”conclusions”• No such thing as an “ecological balance” on these

time-scales.• Knowledge of the ecosystem dynamics is

required to make proper evaluation and prediction of the combined impact of climate and fishing on a marine food web

• Due to the complexity of this challenge, it can only be explored by laboratory experiments and extensive use of mathematical models in combination with observations

• Maybe the acidification is the largest threat??

Standard sections - regional surveys – models

Marine monitoringObservations (from shipssatellites and buoys) arecrucial for validation ofand assimilation intothe models

The ARGO programCan we add some “simple” acoustics to also measure plankton in the upper 2000 m??

Management advice is related to:• Predict future development• Answer to “what if” questions• It is a matter of estimating the coupled effects of

both natural and human pressures

• Advice is by its nature operational, meaning delivering useful information about the marine ecosystem at the right time and in the right format (about the past, now and in the future)

16

i – NordAn Integrated System for Surveillance of the Arctic Oceans

Bilde: Olav Rune Godø (Havforskningsinstituttet)

“Todays” larval distribution

Dagens larvefordelinger

Institute of Marine Research

18

A European Marine “core” serviceclearly defined by the EC GMES Implementation Group

From GMES MCS Implementation Group report by P.Ryder & al

GMES

0

4

8

12

16

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

3,5

3,7

3,9

4,1

4,3

SS

B (

mill. t

on

s)

toC

Spawning stock biomass (SSB) of Atlantic herring and the longterm-averaged temperature

Stock collapse caused by overfishing

under a cooling climate

Start of the new herring period

after 17 years of fishing

moratorium and the formation of new strong year

classes

Long-term averaged

temperature

Toresen og Østvedt (2000)

Sundby (2000)

Climate responses of the Barents cod

Sundby and Nakken (2008)

In cold periods:

- southward displacement

- decrease in spawning-stock biomass

In warm periods: - northward displacement

- increase in spawning-stock biomass

Year

Tem

pera

ture

The situation is quite well with respectto the most important fish stocksin our northern waters

Relation between spawning stock and precautionary state

Precautionarylevel

Cod

Haddock

Saith

Schematic presentation on flow of knowlegde and decisions with regard to management of fisheries

Broad knowlegde base of the fishery and stock

Management objectives for utilization of the stock

Harvest control rule

Decision and distribution of TAC

Implementation and control

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Temperatur

År ?

Atlantic water temperature in the Barents Sea during the 20th century (PINRO and IMR)

and Barents Sea temperature projections (Furevik et al. 2003) towards 2080

Sundby (2008)

Tem

per

atu

re

Year

Conclusions• Fish stocks are strongly influenced by the ocean

climate both directly and indirectly through other levels of the food web

• Multidecadal ocean climate oscillation may substantially contribute to modulate anthropogenic climate change through the 21st century

• Management advice is about predicting the (potential) future

• The ecosystem approach to sustainable management of the oceans is a major challenge requiring wise and strong leadership

• A hungry world more ”farming” of the ocean???• We need to know why…… to better predict

Climate