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Strategy Renaissance CapitalX January 2016

Figure 138: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 139: Economic outlook

QAR 2015 2016 2017

AA/Aa2 4.7 4.9 4.21.0% 78,829 73,725 77,857

MXQA 2.4 2.6 2.7

10.2 1.6 2.3 2.9

11.1% 5.0 -4.5 -2.7

1.6 4.5 -1.5 -2.5

0.0

98.5

31.4

13

49.3

PX

115.3

20

65.1

Figure 140: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 141: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x)

Figure 142: MSCI sector weights Figure 143: Changes in consensus earnings estimates, past 12 mths

Real GDP (% YoY)

C/A balance (% of GDP)

Government balance (% of GDP)

CPI (year-end, %YoY)

3M ADTV ($mn)

GDP/Capita, $

Population, mn

Figure 137: Key data

Local Currency

S&P / Moody's RatingWeight in MSCI EM (%)

Qatar

3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos

Local Index

Trailing P/B

Beta to em

MSCI Full MktCap, $bn

MSCI free float MktCap, $b

No. of Companies

MSCI Index

2016 P/E

2016 EPS Growth

No. of Companies

MktCap ($bn)40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

J

an-1

0

Jul-10

J

an-1

1

Jul-11

J

an-1

2

Jul-12

J

an-1

3

Jul-13

J

an-1

4

Jul-14

J

an-1

5

Jul-15

J

an-1

6

MSCI Qatar, $ MSCI EM, $

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan-1

0

May-1

0

Sep-1

0

Jan-1

1

May-1

1

Sep-1

1

Jan-1

2

May-1

2

Sep-1

2

Jan-1

3

May-1

3

Sep-1

3

Jan-1

4

May-1

4

Sep-1

4

Jan-1

5

May-1

5

Sep-1

5

Jan-1

6

Qatar 3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI Qatar 3M ADTV ($mn)

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan-1

5

Feb-1

5

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-15

Aug-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan-1

6

2015 2016 2017

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jan-1

0

May-1

0

Sep-1

0

Jan-1

1

May-1

1

Sep-1

1

Jan-1

2

May-1

2

Sep-1

2

Jan-1

3

May-1

3

Sep-1

3

Jan-1

4

May-1

4

Sep-1

4

Jan-1

5

May-1

5

Sep-1

5

Jan-1

6

Qatar EM

69%

13%

9%5% 4%

Financials

Industrials

Telecoms

Energy

Utilities

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Figure 144: Index and stock data

MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF Analys MSCI

($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)

MXQA 98,512 -9.8 -19.3 -26.9 10.5 1.6 15.5 106 1.00

QNBK QD 31,501 -6.9 -10.2 -17.2 9.4 1.9 18.8 13 25.1

IQCD QD 16,950 -7.3 -17.1 -31.6 12.2 1.9 14.8 12 13.5MARK QD 6,953 -8.5 -21.9 -24.6 11.8 2.2 18.6 7 10.9

ERES QD 9,690 -18.1 -31.8 -8.3 na 1.2 na 0 9.3

QATI QD 4,255 -0.4 -9.8 9.7 12.2 2.7 na 2 6.6

CBQK QD 3,562 -11.6 -25.4 -35.3 6.7 0.9 12.2 14 5.6

ORDS QD 6,907 6.2 0.9 -31.7 12.0 1.2 9.3 14 5.5

QGTS QD 3,184 -10.0 -16.0 -11.5 10.1 3.1 24.9 2 4.9

QEWS QD 5,559 -14.4 -13.5 -2.4 12.0 2.9 21.4 5 4.4

QIBK QD 5,517 -20.0 -28.1 -17.4 9.3 1.5 16.2 11 4.4

DHBK QD 2,590 -16.4 -26.3 -37.6 7.2 1.0 13.5 14 4.0

VFQS QD 2,427 -17.0 -27.7 -29.8 na 1.7 -4.2 11 3.1

BRES QD 3,431 -19.7 -28.5 -27.1 na 0.7 na 1 2.7

QNNS QD 2,690 -10.9 -13.7 -14.5 7.6 0.7 9.0 3 -

QIIK QD 2,682 0.8 -13.9 -16.7 14.2 2.0 na 2 -

GISS QD 2,185 -16.7 -33.2 -57.2 5.7 2.0 29.2 4 -

AHCS QD 2,028 -11.1 -19.2 -15.4 na 1.0 na 0 -

UDCD QD 1,790 -9.8 -25.1 -23.7 na 0.6 na 0 -

MERS QD 1,022 -16.2 -20.7 -7.0 14.6 2.8 22.0 3 -

- . - . - . na . na -

Ticker Name Sector $ PerformanceFF Mkt Cap

($mn)

3MADTV

($mn)

49.3

Qatar National B Financials 7,875 7.8

MSCI Qatar 31,391

Industries Qatar Industrials 4,237

2.2

Qatar Insurance Financials 2,085 1.1

6.0Masraf Al Rayan Financials 3,407 8.7

Ezdan Holding Gr Financials 2,907

1,543 6.0

Qatar Electricit Utilities 1,390 2.0

2.7

Ooredoo Qsc Telecoms 1,727 2.6

Commercial Bank Financials 1,745

Qatar Gas Transp Energy

Vodafone Qatar Telecoms 971 2.3

Barwa Real Estat Financials 858 3.3

Qatar Islamic Ba Financials 1,379 3.2

Doha Bank Qsc Financials 1,269 2.6

Al Meera Consum Cons. Staples 1,022 0.7

Mazaya Qatar Financials .

Energy 2,185 9.4

Qatar Navigation Industrials 2,690 0.8

Qatar Internatio Financials 2,682 1.1

Gulf Internation

Aamal Co Industrials 2,028 0.4

United Developme Financials 1,790 1.2

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Figure 145: Population, '000 Figure 146: Export destinations, total $120bn

Figure 147: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 148: Qatar - riyal

Figure 149: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 150: Real GDP % change, YoY

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1201403.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Jan-0

0

Dec-0

0

Nov-0

1

Oct-02

Sep-0

3

Aug-0

4

Jul-05

Jun-0

6

May-0

7

Apr-08

Mar-09

Feb-1

0

Jan-1

1

Dec-1

1

Nov-1

2

Oct-13

Sep-1

4

Aug-1

5

QAR vs $ QAR vs EUR Qatar REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)

19.2

7.5

26.2

18.0 17.7

12.0

19.6

13.4

4.9 4.6 4.0 4.74.9 4.2 3.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Japan

Korea

India

EU

China

Singapore

UAE

EuroArea

Taiwan

Thailand

% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS

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Figure 151: CPI (%YoY) and central bank policy rates (%) Figure 152: Credit growth

Figure 153: Manufacturing PMI Figure 154: Producer prices, %YoY

Figure 155: Trade balance Figure 156: Retail sales (%YoY)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-15

Aug-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

CPI, % YoY

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%70%

80%

Jan-0

5

Aug-0

5

Mar-06

Oct-06

May-0

7

Dec-0

7

Jul-08

Feb-0

9

Sep-0

9

Apr-10

Nov-1

0

Jun-1

1

Jan-1

2

Aug-1

2

Mar-13

Oct-13

May-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jul-15

Credit growth, % YoY

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jun-0

8

Nov-0

8

Apr-09

Sep-0

9

Feb-1

0

Jul-10

Dec-1

0

May-1

1

Oct-11

Mar-12

Aug-1

2

Jan-1

3

Jun-1

3

Nov-1

3

Apr-14

Sep-1

4

Feb-1

5

Trade balance, EUR bn Trade balance, $bn

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Dec-0

5

Jun-0

6

Dec-0

6

Jun-0

7

Dec-0

7

Jun-0

8

Dec-0

8

Jun-0

9

Dec-0

9

Jun-1

0

Dec-1

0

Jun-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jun-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jun-1

3

Dec-1

3

Jun-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jun-1

5

Money Supply (M1), % YoY

-41

-40

-39

-38

-37

-36

-35

-34

Apr-15

May-1

5

May-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-15

Jul-15

Aug-1

5

Aug-1

5

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-15

Oct-15

Oct-15

Nov-1

5

Nov-1

5

PPI, % YoY

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jan-0

8

Jun-0

8

Nov-0

8

Apr-09

Sep-0

9

Feb-1

0

Jul-10

Dec-1

0

May-1

1

Oct-11

Mar-12

Aug-1

2

Jan-1

3

Jun-1

3

Nov-1

3

Apr-14

Sep-1

4

Feb-1

5

Jul-15

Consumer confidence index

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RUB 2015 2016 2017

BB+/Ba1 -3.8 -0.6 1.03.6% 8,447 8,058 8,949

MXRU 146.3 146.3 146.3

5.7 13.5 8.5 6.0

6.7% 5.0 5.4 5.7

0.5 -5.7 -3.9 -2.2

1.3

270.6

113.2

20

419.5

INDEXCF

338.0

50

477.3




Russia

S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)

Local Currency

MSCI Index Population, mn

Weight in MSCI EM (%) GDP/Capita, $

2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)

2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)

Beta to em

Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)




No. of Companies

MktCap ($bn)

Local Index

No. of Companies

3M ADTV ($mn)

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

J

an-1

0

Jul-10

J

an-1

1

Jul-11

J

an-1

2

Jul-12

J

an-1

3

Jul-13

J

an-1

4

Jul-14

J

an-1

5

Jul-15

J

an-1

6

MSCI Russia, $ MSCI EM, $

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Jan-1

0

May-1

0

Sep-1

0

Jan-1

1

May-1

1

Sep-1

1

Jan-1

2

May-1

2

Sep-1

2

Jan-1

3

May-1

3

Sep-1

3

Jan-1

4

May-1

4

Sep-1

4

Jan-1

5

May-1

5

Sep-1

5

Jan-1

6

Russia 3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI Russia 3M ADTV ($mn)

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan-1

5

Feb-1

5

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-15

Aug-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan-1

6

2015 2016 2017

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan-1

0

May-1

0

Sep-1

0

Jan-1

1

May-1

1

Sep-1

1

Jan-1

2

May-1

2

Sep-1

2

Jan-1

3

May-1

3

Sep-1

3

Jan-1

4

May-1

4

Sep-1

4

Jan-1

5

May-1

5

Sep-1

5

Jan-1

6

Russia EM

59%17%

9%

8%

6%

1%

Energy

Financials

Cons.StaplesMaterials

Telecoms

Utilities

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MXRU 270,607 -3.9 -12.5 -3.8 5.7 0.5 6.0 282 3.6

GAZP RX 42,049 -6.7 -16.2 -15.3 2.9 0.3 9.1 14 18.3

LKOH RX 28,185 1.7 -9.1 -19.5 5.8 0.3 5.6 16 14.7SBER RX 27,524 -9.6 -7.6 45.6 6.0 0.9 14.2 19 12.0

MGNT LI 18,752 0.7 -12.8 5.2 19.5 7.1 35.0 15 9.0

NVTK LI 25,186 -0.1 -9.6 16.0 11.1 4.6 29.5 21 6.6

GMKN RX 18,479 -8.2 -21.1 -29.5 7.6 3.8 52.7 4 5.6

TATN RX 9,377 -3.7 -17.5 6.1 6.2 1.1 14.1 16 5.3

VTBR RX 12,308 -12.3 -15.3 -1.3 4.8 1.0 5.9 5 4.3

SNGSP RX 4,568 -2.8 -12.0 0.6 7.9 na 6.2 16 3.6

ROSN RX 37,223 -0.5 -11.7 6.9 6.7 1.0 11.0 14 3.6

TRNFP RX 3,963 -2.1 9.5 32.7 8.2 na 10.0 8 3.4

MBT UN 7,274 13.2 1.9 -11.0 9.2 3.0 34.8 19 3.2

SNGS RX 17,631 3.1 -9.8 17.1 7.7 na 6.2 15 3.1

CHMF RX 6,790 -5.0 -28.8 -11.7 7.8 2.6 28.2 5 1.5

ALRS RX 5,821 3.8 -3.7 -28.4 6.4 2.9 34.1 19 1.3

MOEX RX 2,798 -5.3 -13.6 22.5 10.5 2.3 19.0 13 1.2

MFON LI 7,223 0.4 -9.7 -21.3 11.2 2.9 30.9 20 0.9

HYDR RX 3,289 -7.5 -15.5 15.9 6.1 0.4 6.0 12 0.9

SSA LI 2,808 -8.3 -14.8 36.8 7.5 na 7.3 14 0.9

RTKM RX 2,918 -11.1 -20.7 -8.4 11.4 0.9 7.5 17 0.8

YNDX RM 4,184 -13.8 -13.6 -12.7 22.9 4.8 18.5 20 -

URKA RM 6,656 -9.3 -6.4 -10.6 5.7 2.2 57.4 11 -

PHOR RM 4,601 -8.9 -13.8 8.1 7.5 5.7 51.8 4 -

POLY RM 3,458 -5.6 -7.3 -9.2 12.7 3.7 21.5 15 -

IRAO RM 1,866 20.8 -5.7 75.0 3.6 0.3 8.7 11 -

NLMK RM 5,032 -3.5 -29.2 -35.0 7.7 0.9 11.5 6 -

BANEP RM 697 -1.7 -5.9 43.0 3.1 1.2 18.9 13 -

PIKK RM 1,870 -6.7 -17.4 4.4 18.9 5.7 22.4 1 -

BANE RM 3,922 -3.2 -10.8 26.8 4.2 1.2 23.5 19 -

RUAL RM 4,553 -2.2 -25.4 -53.7 5.7 2.6 20.1 13 -

EONR RM 2,539 -9.2 -14.6 15.4 7.9 1.9 20.5 10 -

LSRG RM 856 -10.2 -10.3 16.1 5.4 0.9 17.2 2 -

MAGN RM 2,735 -1.8 -31.0 28.9 5.7 0.7 11.1 5 -

AFLT RM 739 -14.3 -9.9 23.3 3.4 na -99.5 13 -

AKRN RM 1,887 -10.9 -3.6 38.1 4.8 1.8 22.5 13 -

LNTA RM 2,763 -17.3 -24.5 1.0 13.1 1.3 33.4 1 -

AGRO RM 1,609 -1.1 45.9 177.1 6.3 2.4 25.0 0 -

MVID RM 594 -7.2 -6.2 62.4 9.1 4.0 28.9 9 -

GCHE RM 644 1.7 7.4 44.6 5.8 1.1 na 1 -

TRMK RM 705 -17.0 -13.7 4.5 5.1 0.6 5.0 3 -

DIXY RM 459 -12.7 -28.4 -33.1 9.5 1.1 9.7 18 -

FEES RM 974 -5.8 -21.9 6.8 1.7 0.1 5.3 8 -

VSMO RM 1,934 -0.9 -7.2 11.4 na 2.7 na 1 -NKNC RM 949 -3.4 2.4 60.1 na 0.9 na 2 -

RSTI RM 982 -4.6 -15.8 2.9 1.6 0.1 4.8 6 -

MTLR RM 338 -9.7 -13.2 29.3 na na na 1 -

- . - . . na na na -

Rosseti Pjsc Utilities 134 0.7

Mechel Materials 110 0.8

Pharmstandard Pj Healthcare .

$ Performance

($mn) ($mn)

MSCI Russia 113,174 419.5

Ticker Name Sector FF Mkt Cap 3MADTV

65.6

Lukoil Pjsc Energy 16,570 37.7

Gazprom Pao Energy 20,951

144.3

Magnit Pjsc-Spon Cons. Staples 9,965 28.6

Sberbank Pjsc Financials 13,551

17.0

Mmc Norilsk Nick Materials 6,453 31.9

Novatek Oao-Gdr Energy 7,410

7.9

Vtb Bank Pjsc Financials 4,799 17.7

Tatneft Pao-Cls Energy 6,008

Rosneft Oao Energy 4,052 17.8

Surgutnefteg-Prf Energy 3,962 15.3

Mobile Teles-Adr Telecoms 3,637 5.0

Ak Transneft-Prf Energy 3,886 6.4

Severstal Pao Materials 1,712 8.6

Surgutneftegas Energy 3,445 9.6

6.9

Moscow Exchange Financials 1,372 8.2

Alrosa Pao Materials 1,461

Sistema Jsfc-Gdr Telecoms 961 3.0

Rostelecom Telecoms 895 2.3

Megafon-Regs Gdr Telecoms 1,088 5.9

Rushydro Pjsc Utilities 996 3.6

Phosagro Oao-Cls Materials 2,113 0.4

Polymetal Intern Materials 1,600 0.2

Yandex Nv-A IT 4,027 0.9

Uralkali Pjsc Materials 2,386 5.4

Bashneft Pao-Pre Energy 697 0.5

Pik Group Pjsc Cons. Disc. 628 0.2

Inter Rao Ues Pj Utilities 757 1.4

Nlmk Ao Materials 728 4.4

E.On Russia Jsc Utilities 413 2.6

Lsr Group Pjsc Financials 358 0.1

Bashneft Pao Energy 551 0.7

United Co Rusal Materials 468 0.2

Acron Materials 290 0.3

Lenta -Reg S Cons. Staples 276 0.1

Magnitogorsk Materials 348 6.0

Aeroflot Industrials 302 3.9

Cherkizovo Group Cons. Staples 250 0.0

Tmk Pao Energy 227 0.3

Ros Agro-Gdr Reg Cons. Staples 274 0.1

M Video Pao Cons. Disc. 251 0.3

Vsmpo-Avisma Cor Materials 188 0.0Nizhnekamsknefte Materials 179 0.0

Dixy Group Pjsc Cons. Staples 206 0.3

Federal Grid Utilities 193 0.7

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Figure 167: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 168: Russia - rouble


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

0

2

4

6

8

10

120

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E


60

70

80

90

100

110

120212

22

32

42

52

62

72

82

92

Jan-0

0

Dec-0

0

Nov-0

1

Oct-02

Sep-0

3

Aug-0

4

Jul-05

Jun-0

6

May-0

7

Apr-08

Mar-09

Feb-1

0

Jan-1

1

Dec-1

1

Nov-1

2

Oct-13

Sep-1

4

Aug-1

5

RUB vs $ RUB vs EUR Russia REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

EU

EuroArea

Netherlands

China

Germany

Italy

Turkey

Belarus

Japan

Korea


-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E


7.26.4

8.2 8.5

5.2

-7.8

4.5 4.33.4

1.3

0.6

-3.8

-0.6

1.0 1.5

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

02

4

6

8

10

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

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Figure 173: Manufacturing PMI Figure 174: Industrial output and producer prices (%YoY)


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan-0

6

Jul-06

Jan-0

7

Jul-07

Jan-0

8

Jul-08

Jan-0

9

Jul-09

Jan-1

0

Jul-10

Jan-1

1

Jul-11

Jan-1

2

Jul-12

Jan-1

3

Jul-13

Jan-1

4

Jul-14

Jan-1

5

Jul-15

CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jan-0

5

Aug-0

5

Mar-06

Oct-06

May-0

7

Dec-0

7

Jul-08

Feb-0

9

Sep-0

9

Apr-10

Nov-1

0

Jun-1

1

Jan-1

2

Aug-1

2

Mar-13

Oct-13

May-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jul-15


0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan-0

6

Jul-06

Jan-0

7

Jul-07

Jan-0

8

Jul-08

Jan-0

9

Jul-09

Jan-1

0

Jul-10

Jan-1

1

Jul-11

Jan-1

2

Jul-12

Jan-1

3

Jul-13

Jan-1

4

Jul-14

Jan-1

5

Jul-15

Trade balance, $bn

4445

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

Sep-1

2

Nov-1

2

Jan-1

3

Mar-13

May-1

3

Jul-13

Sep-1

3

Nov-1

3

Jan-1

4

Mar-14

May-1

4

Jul-14

Sep-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan-1

5

Mar-15

May-1

5

Jul-15

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Manufacturing PMI (SA) (50= no change)

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Dec-0

5

Jul-06

Feb-0

7

Sep-0

7

Apr-08

Nov-0

8

Jun-0

9

Jan-1

0

Aug-1

0

Mar-11

Oct-11

May-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jul-13

Feb-1

4

Sep-1

4

Apr-15

Nov-1

5

Industrial volumes, %YoY PPI, % YoY (RHS)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan-0

6

Jun-0

6

Nov-0

6

Apr-07

Sep-0

7

Feb-0

8

Jul-08

Dec-0

8

May-0

9

Oct-09

Mar-10

Aug-1

0

Jan-1

1

Jun-1

1

Nov-1

1

Apr-12

Sep-1

2

Feb-1

3

Jul-13

Retail Sales, % YoY

56

7/25/2019 EMEA pt2

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ZAR 2015 2016 2017

BBB-/Baa2 1.4 1.3 2.16.8% 5,784 5,859 6,014

MXZA 54.9 55.7 56.6

14.8 5.5 5.7 5.6

8.7% -4.3 -4.5 -4.5

2.3 -4.1 -3.7 -3.4

1.1

279.6

214.5

54

986.4

JALSH

639.5

164

1364.0




South Africa

S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)

Local Currency


Weight in MSCI EM (%) GDP/Capita, $



Beta to em





No. of Companies

MktCap ($bn)

Local Index

3M ADTV ($mn)

No. of Companies

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

J

an-1

0

Jul-10

J

an-1

1

Jul-11

J

an-1

2

Jul-12

J

an-1

3

Jul-13

J

an-1

4

Jul-14

J

an-1

5

Jul-15

J

an-1

6

MSCI South Africa, $ MSCI EM, $

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Jan-1

0

May-1

0

Sep-1

0

Jan-1

1

May-1

1

Sep-1

1

Jan-1

2

May-1

2

Sep-1

2

Jan-1

3

May-1

3

Sep-1

3

Jan-1

4

May-1

4

Sep-1

4

Jan-1

5

May-1

5

Sep-1

5

Jan-1

6

South Africa 3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI South Africa 3M ADTV ($mn)

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan-1

5

Feb-1

5

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-15

Aug-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan-1

6

2015 2016 2017

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

Jan-1

0

May-1

0

Sep-1

0

Jan-1

1

May-1

1

Sep-1

1

Jan-1

2

May-1

2

Sep-1

2

Jan-1

3

May-1

3

Sep-1

3

Jan-1

4

May-1

4

Sep-1

4

Jan-1

5

May-1

5

Sep-1

5

Jan-1

6

South Africa EM

34%

31%

8%

7%

6%

5%5%4%

Cons. Disc.

Financials

Telecoms

Energy

Healthcare

Materials

Cons. Staples

Industrials

57

7/25/2019 EMEA pt2

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MXZA 279,632 -10.9 -23.1 -36.7 13.6 2.3 15.1 571 6.85

NPN SJ 53,817 -11.4 -15.0 -16.1 32.1 8.4 22.7 18 22.1

SOL SJ 17,307 -5.0 -16.3 -25.1 10.9 1.5 11.3 15 6.7MTN SJ 15,347 -9.7 -25.3 -53.8 9.1 2.0 23.0 18 6.3

SNH SJ 18,344 -8.7 -22.5 -8.2 13.9 1.6 9.4 8 5.2

FSR SJ 15,479 -3.4 -24.5 -37.8 10.2 2.7 23.8 15 4.2

SBK SJ 11,255 -8.7 -32.6 -47.5 7.8 1.3 15.0 15 3.8

REM SJ 8,063 -5.4 -21.9 -33.1 13.2 1.8 12.6 6 3.4

BVT SJ 7,520 3.1 -11.2 -19.4 15.9 3.2 18.3 13 3.2

SLM SJ 7,923 -7.6 -19.7 -40.0 11.9 2.8 15.5 8 2.9

WHL SJ 5,478 -12.7 -21.8 -24.2 17.1 6.0 31.6 15 2.6

APN SJ 7,450 -19.6 -26.5 -56.9 16.9 3.5 17.9 13 2.5

SHP SJ 5,152 -5.7 -13.8 -44.6 16.3 4.0 22.2 15 1.9

MDC SJ 7,403 -3.5 -13.3 -22.1 21.1 2.5 12.5 11 1.7

BAT SJ 5,261 -7.6 -10.9 54.0 na 1.3 na 1 1.6

VOD SJ 13,390 -10.5 -16.9 -23.9 14.8 9.2 59.0 18 1.5

ANG SJ 3,333 14.0 -6.0 -27.4 12.6 1.4 6.8 16 1.5

GRT SJ 3,856 -8.4 -22.7 -45.2 12.2 1.0 10.6 8 1.5

BGA SJ 7,532 -5.6 -30.5 -47.9 7.8 1.5 16.8 14 1.4

TBS SJ 3,514 -12.5 -20.8 -46.3 13.8 4.1 22.5 10 1.4

DSY SJ 5,161 -10.0 -26.7 -18.5 15.3 3.0 20.1 6 1.3

TRU SJ 2,585 -1.0 -9.0 -17.4 12.9 5.4 34.0 12 1.2

GFI SJ 2,525 14.1 19.6 -41.6 17.3 1.0 4.0 15 1.1

RDF SJ 2,857 -7.5 -29.8 -40.1 9.9 1.0 9.7 7 1.1

RMH SJ 4,928 -7.9 -27.7 -37.2 9.6 2.3 20.9 4 1.1

MRP SJ 2,675 -25.1 -35.7 -56.5 15.0 8.4 45.2 14 1.1

SAP SJ 2,295 3.4 14.6 1.8 8.4 2.4 22.2 6 1.1

NEP SJ 3,158 -9.8 2.3 6.0 19.0 2.2 8.1 5 1.1

NED SJ 5,775 -5.4 -29.0 -46.7 7.9 1.4 15.4 15 1.0

LHC SJ 2,289 -5.9 -21.9 -41.8 16.9 7.1 38.5 10 0.9

RES SJ 2,764 -5.6 -18.7 -4.7 23.2 1.7 9.7 7 0.9

NTC SJ 3,028 -8.4 -27.3 -37.4 14.7 4.4 25.2 11 0.9

MND SJ 7,807 -18.8 -29.8 -9.7 10.4 2.5 21.8 4 0.9

SPP SJ 1,965 -7.7 -20.9 -29.0 17.6 9.4 47.6 14 0.8

RMI SJ 3,645 -5.0 -21.4 -33.4 14.7 3.4 20.2 5 0.7

TFG SJ 1,637 -5.0 -24.4 -47.0 10.7 2.8 24.4 14 0.7

INL SJ 5,759 -12.1 -22.9 -25.3 9.2 1.2 13.1 3 0.7

MMI SJ 2,240 -2.7 -21.5 -47.0 9.0 1.5 11.6 8 0.7

HYP SJ 1,487 -10.1 -32.5 -33.5 15.6 1.1 8.2 7 0.7

FFB SJ 3,101 -6.6 -11.2 23.0 27.3 1.0 4.0 5 0.7

IPL SJ 1,489 -6.5 -43.0 -57.6 7.4 1.4 15.1 12 0.6

IMP SJ 1,396 9.7 -30.1 -70.1 17.9 0.4 2.5 18 0.5

PFG SJ 1,895 -22.1 -44.4 -39.2 14.8 3.5 24.8 10 0.5

PSG SJ 2,655 -21.6 -38.9 0.7 19.1 3.4 na 2 0.5CPI SJ 3,395 -17.7 -31.7 -10.6 15.1 4.5 24.9 10 0.5

TKG SJ 2,123 -5.9 -20.9 -33.4 10.0 1.5 14.3 15 0.4

BAW SJ 919 5.3 -22.1 -43.0 6.9 0.8 10.6 13 0.4

PIK SJ 1,785 -17.1 -23.9 -28.8 22.3 9.5 33.2 15 0.4

FFA SJ 3,099 -10.2 -21.0 -39.2 10.9 1.0 8.7 5 0.4

CML SJ 1,315 5.0 -29.1 -58.1 12.4 9.7 68.3 7 0.4

LBH SJ 2,010 -7.9 -27.3 -37.8 7.4 1.6 14.7 8 0.4

AMS SJ 3,670 9.3 -21.7 -55.5 23.7 1.1 5.1 18 0.3

MSM SJ 1,202 -17.9 -34.8 -62.3 13.8 3.8 23.0 13 0.3

TSH SJ 1,506 -6.5 -19.3 -40.6 10.6 2.9 23.5 4 0.2

EXX SJ 1,239 17.7 -15.9 -61.4 10.0 0.6 5.5 12 0.2

BTI SJ 102,588 -2.1 -7.1 -3.7 17.1 12.0 74.9 26 -

SAB SJ , - . - . . . . . -

Brit Amer Tobacc Cons. Staples 102,527 36.4

Sabmiller Plc Cons. Staples 55,009 64.1

Massmart Hldgs Cons. Staples 579 3.2

Tsogo Sun Holdin Cons. Disc. 497 2.2

Exxaro Resources Energy 486 2.1

Liberty Hldgs Financials 777 3.8

Anglo American P Materials 718 7.0

76.1

18.2

Redefine Propert Financials 2,416 7.6

Rmb Holdings Ltd Financials 2,321 9.8

Truworths Intl Cons. Disc.

3MADTV $ Performance

($mn) ($mn)

MSCI South Africa 214,529 986.4

Ticker Name Sector FF Mkt Cap

194.5

Sasol Ltd Energy 14,516 48.5

Naspers Ltd-N Cons. Disc. 47,603

Steinhoff Int Nv Cons. Disc. 11,124 48.6

Mtn Group Ltd Telecoms 13,355

48.0

Standard Bank Gr Financials 8,012 37.6

Firstrand Ltd Financials 8,762

Bidvest Group Industrials 6,974 20.9

Remgro Ltd Financials 7,232

Woolworths Hldgs Cons. Disc. 5,493 29.4

Sanlam Ltd Financials 6,015 24.8

Shoprite Hldgs Cons. Staples 3,937 17.9

Aspen Pharmacare Healthcare 5,491 25.4

Brait Se Financials 3,348 10.1

Mediclinic Int Healthcare 3,655 17.7

Anglogold Ashant Materials 3,299 11.9

Vodacom Group Telecoms 3,323 30.3

Tiger Brands Ltd Cons. Staples 2,885 16.5

Discovery Ltd Financials 2,812 13.3

Growthpoint Prop Financials 3,167 11.8

Barclays Africa Financials 2,867 16.2

2,465 14.9

Gold Fields Ltd Materials 2,624 6.6

New Europe Prop Financials 2,322 11.1

Nedbank Group Financials 2,233 13.2

Mr Price Group Cons. Disc. 2,294 19.9

Sappi Ltd Materials 2,445 11.6

Mmi Holdings Ltd Financials 1,505 6.6

Hyprop Invest-Ut Financials 1,396 5.7

Netcare Ltd Healthcare 1,892 12.2

Mondi Ltd Materials 1,947 9.3

Life Healthcare Healthcare 2,010 9.4

Resilient Reit L Financials 1,969 4.6

The Foschini Gro Cons. Disc. 1,527 9.4

Impala Platinum Materials 1,152 8.0

Pioneer Foods Gr Cons. Staples 1,031 5.1

Fortress-Inc-A Financials 858 5.3

Investec Ltd Financials 1,538 7.8

Spar Grp Ltd/The Cons. Staples 1,828 7.0

Rand Merchant In Financials 1,592 5.7

Fortress-Inc Financials 1,467 7.2

Imperial Hldgs Cons. Disc. 1,274 9.5

Coronat Financials 816 5.7

Telkom Sa Soc Lt Telecoms 932 5.6

Barloworld Ltd Industrials 949 6.4

Pick'N Pay Store Cons. Staples 856 4.2

Psg Group Ltd Financials 974 6.3Capitec Bank Hol Financials 970 11.1

58

7/25/2019 EMEA pt2

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Figure 187: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 188: South Africa - rand


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

00

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1416

18

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

EU

EuroArea

China

USA

Japan

Botswana

Germany

Namibia

India

UK


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E


4.6

5.35.6

5.4

3.2

-1.5

3.0 3.2

2.2 2.21.5 1.4 1.3

2.1

2.5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1301405

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

Jan-0

0

Dec-0

0

Nov-0

1

Oct-02

Sep-0

3

Aug-0

4

Jul-05

Jun-0

6

May-0

7

Apr-08

Mar-09

Feb-1

0

Jan-1

1

Dec-1

1

Nov-1

2

Oct-13

Sep-1

4

Aug-1

5

ZAR vs $ZAR vs EURSouth Africa REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

59

7/25/2019 EMEA pt2

12/20





0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Dec-0

5

Jul-06

Feb-0

7

Sep-0

7

Apr-08

Nov-0

8

Jun-0

9

Jan-1

0

Aug-1

0

Mar-11

Oct-11

May-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jul-13

Feb-1

4

Sep-1

4

Apr-15

Nov-1

5

CPI, % YoY SARB Policy rate

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%25%

30%

Jan-0

5

Aug-0

5

Mar-06

Oct-06

May-0

7

Dec-0

7

Jul-08

Feb-0

9

Sep-0

9

Apr-10

Nov-1

0

Jun-1

1

Jan-1

2

Aug-1

2

Mar-13

Oct-13

May-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jul-15


-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Dec-0

5

Jun-0

6

Dec-0

6

Jun-0

7

Dec-0

7

Jun-0

8

Dec-0

8

Jun-0

9

Dec-0

9

Jun-1

0

Dec-1

0

Jun-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jun-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jun-1

3

Dec-1

3

Jun-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jun-1

5

Trade balance, $bn Trade balance, $bn 3mma

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Dec-0

5

Jul-06

Feb-0

7

Sep-0

7

Apr-08

Nov-0

8

Jun-0

9

Jan-1

0

Aug-1

0

Mar-11

Oct-11

May-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jul-13

Feb-1

4

Sep-1

4

Apr-15

Nov-1

5


-25-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Jan-0

6

Aug-0

6

Mar-07

Oct-07

May-0

8

Dec-0

8

Jul-09

Feb-1

0

Sep-1

0

Apr-11

Nov-1

1

Jun-1

2

Jan-1

3

Aug-1

3

Mar-14

Oct-14

May-1

5

Industrial volumes, %YoY PPI, % YoY

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Jan-0

6

Aug-0

6

Mar-07

Oct-07

May-0

8

Dec-0

8

Jul-09

Feb-1

0

Sep-1

0

Apr-11

Nov-1

1

Jun-1

2

Jan-1

3

Aug-1

3

Mar-14

Oct-14

May-1

5

Retail Sales, % YoY

60

7/25/2019 EMEA pt2

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TRY 2015 2016 2017

BB+/Baa3 3.0 2.9 3.71.5% 9,290 9,180 9,594

MXTR 77.7 78.6 79.4

8.0 8.0 6.5 6.5

17.3% -4.5 -4.7 -5.2

1.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8

1.1

119.4

46.3

25

1026.8

XU100

154.6

100

1313.8



3M ADTV ($mn)

MktCap ($bn)

No. of Companies


Local Index


No. of Companies

Beta to em






S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)Weight in MSCI EM (%) GDP/Capita, $


Local Currency

Turkey

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

J

an-1

0

Jul-10

J

an-1

1

Jul-11

J

an-1

2

Jul-12

J

an-1

3

Jul-13

J

an-1

4

Jul-14

J

an-1

5

Jul-15

J

an-1

6

MSCI Turkey, $ MSCI EM, $

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Jan-1

0

May-1

0

Sep-1

0

Jan-1

1

May-1

1

Sep-1

1

Jan-1

2

May-1

2

Sep-1

2

Jan-1

3

May-1

3

Sep-1

3

Jan-1

4

May-1

4

Sep-1

4

Jan-1

5

May-1

5

Sep-1

5

Jan-1

6

Turkey 3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI Turkey 3M ADTV ($mn)

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

Jan-1

5

Feb-1

5

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-15

Aug-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan-1

6

2015 2016 2017

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan-1

0

May-1

0

Sep-1

0

Jan-1

1

May-1

1

Sep-1

1

Jan-1

2

May-1

2

Sep-1

2

Jan-1

3

May-1

3

Sep-1

3

Jan-1

4

May-1

4

Sep-1

4

Jan-1

5

May-1

5

Sep-1

5

Jan-1

6

Turkey EM

47%

14%

13%

8%

7%6% 5%

Financials

Cons.

Staples

Industrials

Telecoms

Energy

Cons. Disc.

Materials

61

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MXTR 119,363 -4.3 -9.7 -34.0 8.0 1.2 13.1 620 1.48

GARAN TI 10,512 -0.8 -3.3 -40.3 6.9 1.1 15.1 28 12.3

AKBNK TI 9,566 -1.9 -6.6 -35.4 7.0 1.1 14.1 27 11.2BIMAS TI 5,166 -7.6 -17.3 -16.0 22.8 10.7 40.0 29 7.7

TUPRS TI 6,343 1.4 -6.1 13.2 8.2 2.6 27.2 30 6.8

TCELL TI 7,666 -1.8 -14.3 -40.8 10.1 1.7 13.5 28 6.5

SAHOL TI 5,829 -2.8 -9.8 -33.4 6.3 0.9 12.3 23 5.6

KCHOL TI 10,051 0.9 -10.9 -25.0 9.4 1.4 13.4 20 5.4

ISCTR TI 6,997 -4.7 -7.4 -46.1 5.6 0.7 12.0 28 5.2

HALKB TI 4,313 -6.9 -6.8 -46.8 4.9 0.7 13.0 29 4.6

EKGYO TI 3,307 -5.0 -8.2 -34.2 6.5 1.1 14.2 22 3.5

EREGL TI 3,636 -4.8 -26.4 -43.1 9.0 0.9 8.3 24 3.1

THYAO TI 3,407 -4.3 -14.0 -37.2 5.3 0.7 13.1 26 2.9

AEFES TI 3,665 -7.4 -23.9 -31.7 18.7 1.3 6.7 19 2.7

ARCLK TI 3,505 4.7 -1.4 -17.6 12.3 2.2 16.4 23 2.6

YKBNK TI 5,323 4.6 1.7 -42.0 6.2 0.7 10.7 29 2.3

TAVHL TI 2,154 -8.3 -25.5 -20.5 7.3 2.3 27.2 22 2.1

ULKER TI 2,134 -3.4 -8.9 -23.8 20.2 5.3 22.0 19 2.0

VAKBN TI 3,179 -6.0 -9.7 -45.9 5.2 0.6 11.0 28 2.0

TOASO TI 3,454 2.7 8.8 -1.7 13.0 4.7 30.5 26 1.8

CCOLA TI 2,754 -21.3 -14.0 -46.1 17.2 2.2 12.1 24 1.8

TTKOM TI 6,316 -4.7 -14.2 -40.9 9.3 4.7 33.8 30 1.7

FROTO TI 3,823 0.3 -8.2 -22.8 12.1 4.0 29.1 26 1.6

ENKAI TI 5,856 -3.6 -18.2 -21.7 10.5 1.1 10.5 24 1.6

PETKM TI 1,786 12.0 20.6 13.7 17.5 2.0 11.3 18 1.5

SISE TI 1,916 -6.7 -8.1 -29.0 8.9 0.9 8.5 18 1.4

DOCO TI 970 -4.0 9.1 31.9 20.2 4.5 16.7 9 -

MGROS TI 954 -13.4 -11.4 -44.8 27.8 6.3 15.0 25 -

ASELS TI 3,069 4.6 25.8 23.4 16.8 4.3 16.2 15 -

KRDMD TI 465 -3.8 -16.9 -55.2 9.0 1.0 10.6 17 -

TSKB TI 874 -3.3 -6.9 -33.1 5.7 1.0 15.8 17 -

TTRAK TI 1,293 1.9 -2.5 -28.3 12.0 3.6 41.4 19 -

AYGAZ TI 1,026 -1.2 -9.2 -20.6 8.5 1.2 13.6 18 -

TKFEN TI 489 -4.2 -6.4 -44.9 6.0 0.7 11.2 24 -

AKSA TI 637 -5.5 -4.1 -11.6 9.8 1.6 14.4 6 -

ISGYO TI 423 -4.9 12.9 -14.8 6.6 0.5 11.0 15 -

OTKAR TI 785 4.7 20.4 -18.7 26.4 12.9 37.5 10 -

CIMSA TI 656 -9.5 -11.2 -33.4 8.6 1.7 18.6 20 -

PGSUS TI 577 -9.0 -10.8 -55.3 9.1 1.0 13.0 21 -

DOHOL TI 485 -3.8 -10.5 -39.2 40.7 0.6 3.5 8 -

DOAS TI 804 -4.1 0.1 -37.4 8.2 1.8 20.8 18 -

KOZAL TI 638 0.3 -23.3 -46.6 4.7 0.9 19.6 4 -

ALBRK TI 437 4.5 2.4 -32.3 na 0.7 9.9 13 -

AKSEN TI 492 -7.1 -10.4 -41.7 16.6 1.9 12.2 14 -SODA TI 1,031 6.0 -6.0 -1.9 7.5 1.6 17.9 10 -

TRKCM TI - . - . - . . . . -

Aksa Enerji Uret Utilities 184 2.3Soda Sanayii Materials 170 1.3

Trakya Cam Industrials 155 3.9

Dogus Otomotiv S Cons. Disc. 199 6.1

Koza Altin Materials 192 4.9

Albaraka Turk Financials 190 0.9

Cimsa Materials 239 0.9

Pegasus Industrials 214 11.4

Dogan Holding Industrials 205 3.0

Aksa Cons. Disc. 266 0.7

Is Gayrimenkul Y Financials 244 2.0

Otokar Industrials 240 7.4

Turk Traktor Ve Industrials 323 1.4

Aygaz As Utilities 303 1.2

Tekfen Industrials 294 5.4

Aselsan Industrials 473 4.8

Kardemir Materials 465 11.0

Turkiye Sinai Financials 396 2.7

Sisecam Industrials 659 5.7

Do & Co Ag Cons. Disc. 653 1.2

Migros Cons. Staples 477 4.0

Ford Oto Cons. Disc. 755 3.4

Enka Industrials 741 4.1

Petkim Materials 710 15.4

Tofas Cons. Disc. 849 7.1

Coca-Cola Icecek Cons. Staples 816 6.1

Turk Telekom Telecoms 809 6.0

8.2

Ulker Cons. Staples 943 5.3

Vakibank Financials 940 59.9

Arcelik Cons. Disc. 1,195 8.3

Thy Industrials 1,341 159.0

Anadolu Efes Bir Cons. Staples 1,289 1.5

Yapi Kredi Financials 1,043 21.2

Tav Industrials 960

Emlak Konut Financials 1,628 41.0

Eregli Materials 1,440 21.0

Is Bankasi Financials 2,398 67.0

Halkbank Financials 2,130 96.5

Sabanci Holding Financials 2,567 38.7

Koc Holding Industrials 2,461 21.5

Tupras Energy 3,116 30.3

Turkcell Telecoms 3,002 17.9

Akbank Financials 5,161 69.1Bim Cons. Staples 3,593 15.2

MSCI Turkey 46,260 1,026.8

Garanti Financials 5,714 287.9

Ticker Name Sector FF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance

($mn) ($mn)

62

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Figure 207: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 208: Turkey - lira


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

00

2

4

6

8

10

12

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E


40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1101200.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jan-0

0

Dec-0

0

Nov-0

1

Oct-02

Sep-0

3

Aug-0

4

Jul-05

Jun-0

6

May-0

7

Apr-08

Mar-09

Feb-1

0

Jan-1

1

Dec-1

1

Nov-1

2

Oct-13

Sep-1

4

Aug-1

5

TRY vs $ TRY vs EUR Turkey REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.40.45

0.5

EU

EuroArea

Germany

Iraq

UK

Italy

France

USA

Russia

Spain


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E


9.48.4

6.9

4.7

0.7

-4.8

9.2 8.8

2.1

4.2

2.9 3.0 2.93.7

3.5

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

63

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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Dec-0

5

Jul-06

Feb-0

7

Sep-0

7

Apr-08

Nov-0

8

Jun-0

9

Jan-1

0

Aug-1

0

Mar-11

Oct-11

May-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jul-13

Feb-1

4

Sep-1

4

Apr-15

Nov-1

5

CPI, % YoY Key policy rate (%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jan-0

5

Aug-0

5

Mar-06

Oct-06

May-0

7

Dec-0

7

Jul-08

Feb-0

9

Sep-0

9

Apr-10

Nov-1

0

Jun-1

1

Jan-1

2

Aug-1

2

Mar-13

Oct-13

May-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jul-15


-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Dec-0

5

Jun-0

6

Dec-0

6

Jun-0

7

Dec-0

7

Jun-0

8

Dec-0

8

Jun-0

9

Dec-0

9

Jun-1

0

Dec-1

0

Jun-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jun-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jun-1

3

Dec-1

3

Jun-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jun-1

5

Trade balance, $bn C/A balance, $bn

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

Sep-1

2

Nov-1

2

Jan-1

3

Mar-13

May-1

3

Jul-13

Sep-1

3

Nov-1

3

Jan-1

4

Mar-14

May-1

4

Jul-14

Sep-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan-1

5

Mar-15

May-1

5

Jul-15

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Manufacturing PMI, SA (50= no change)

-25-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan-0

6

Aug-0

6

Mar-07

Oct-07

May-0

8

Dec-0

8

Jul-09

Feb-1

0

Sep-1

0

Apr-11

Nov-1

1

Jun-1

2

Jan-1

3

Aug-1

3

Mar-14

Oct-14

May-1

5

Industr ia l volumes, %YoY (SWDA) PPI, % YoY (RHS)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Jan-1

1

May-1

1

Sep-1

1

Jan-1

2

May-1

2

Sep-1

2

Jan-1

3

May-1

3

Sep-1

3

Jan-1

4

May-1

4

Sep-1

4

Jan-1

5

May-1

5

Sep-1

5

Retail Sales, % YoY WDA

64

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AED 2015 2016 2017

-/Aa2 3.0 3.1 3.30.9% 35,392 36,142 37,737

MXAE 9.6 9.9 10.1

10.3 3.3 3.0 2.7

13.4% 2.9 3.1 4.8

1.5 -5.5 -4.0 -1.8

0.3

114.2

28.3

11

98.1

DSMI/DFMGI

173.1

97

153.8



MktCap ($bn)

No. of Companies

3M ADTV ($mn)


Local Index


No. of Companies

Beta to em






S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)Weight in MSCI EM (%) GDP/Capita, $


Local Currency

UAE

30

80

130

180

230

280

J

an-1

0

Jul-10

J

an-1

1

Jul-11

J

an-1

2

Jul-12

J

an-1

3

Jul-13

J

an-1

4

Jul-14

J

an-1

5

Jul-15

J

an-1

6

MSCI UAE, $ MSCI EM, $

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jan-1

0

May-1

0

Sep-1

0

Jan-1

1

May-1

1

Sep-1

1

Jan-1

2

May-1

2

Sep-1

2

Jan-1

3

May-1

3

Sep-1

3

Jan-1

4

May-1

4

Sep-1

4

Jan-1

5

May-1

5

Sep-1

5

Jan-1

6

UAE 3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI UAE 3M ADTV ($mn)

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

Jan-1

5

Feb-1

5

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-15

Aug-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan-1

6

2015 2016 2017

4

6

810

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Jan-1

0

May-1

0

Sep-1

0

Jan-1

1

May-1

1

Sep-1

1

Jan-1

2

May-1

2

Sep-1

2

Jan-1

3

May-1

3

Sep-1

3

Jan-1

4

May-1

4

Sep-1

4

Jan-1

5

May-1

5

Sep-1

5

Jan-1

6

UAE EM

60%27%

13%

Financials

Telecoms

Industrials

65

7/25/2019 EMEA pt2

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MXAE 114,186 -7.3 -16.4 -23.2 10.2 1.5 13.7 127 0.91

ETISALAT DH 38,831 2.8 7.2 63.3 15.4 3.5 18.6 12 27.4

EMAAR DB 9,532 -14.4 -24.2 -27.0 8.2 0.9 11.8 12 16.5ADCB DH 9,141 -7.0 -20.0 -13.3 7.0 1.4 17.3 16 11.3

DPW DU 14,401 -4.9 -14.2 -11.7 14.8 1.7 10.5 10 10.2

FGB DH 12,374 -22.0 -18.2 -31.4 7.7 1.5 17.9 17 8.7

ALDAR DH 4,709 -3.5 -3.5 -7.2 8.6 0.9 10.3 12 6.6

DIB DB 6,157 -5.9 -11.6 -12.3 7.4 1.7 22.6 10 5.4

NBAD DH 10,468 -7.8 -15.2 -36.8 7.1 1.0 13.6 14 4.8

EMAARMLS DB 8,114 -15.8 -26.8 -17.6 14.5 2.0 13.0 11 4.3

ARTC DB 1,495 -4.8 -27.0 -56.9 217.9 1.5 0.4 9 2.6

DFM DB 2,483 -5.8 -20.3 -40.0 23.3 1.1 5.2 4 2.2

EMIRATES DB 10,592 -4.1 -22.2 -22.3 5.7 0.9 16.0 11 -

DU DB 6,472 2.2 2.0 3.4 12.1 3.2 23.6 10 -

CBD DB 4,578 -4.8 -6.3 0.7 13.1 2.1 16.1 2 -

ADIB DH 2,958 -13.2 -18.3 -33.5 6.0 1.1 18.1 6 -

DIC DB 1,830 -17.0 -26.6 -19.3 7.2 0.6 8.1 2 -

RAKBANK DH 2,442 -13.7 -21.3 -33.9 6.0 1.2 18.4 5 -

AIRARABI DB 1,461 -14.2 -14.8 -30.7 8.3 1.1 13.0 14 -

DAMAC DB 3,772 -0.9 -22.9 54.8 2.6 1.5 45.6 6 -

UNB DH 2,547 -26.6 -39.3 -41.4 4.7 0.6 11.8 10 -

ARMX DB 1,144 -8.9 -7.1 -12.2 10.8 1.9 16.1 10 -

NBF DH 1,710 32.1 52.1 17.7 na 1.9 na 0 -

WAHA DH 1,038 -8.0 -9.7 -38.4 4.6 0.9 na 3 -

UAB DH 1,812 -10.0 -12.3 -12.0 6.1 2.6 na 1 -

DUBAIPAR DB 1,842 -4.5 -15.1 51.6 na 1.1 -7.1 3 -

NBQ DH 1,660 0.0 6.4 3.7 na 1.5 na 0 -

DANA DH 835 -8.3 -6.4 -4.3 9.0 0.3 3.4 4 -

MASQ DB 3,867 -5.9 -23.8 -35.4 4.9 0.8 na 1 -

UPP DB 627 -17.2 -28.0 -39.2 na 0.5 -0.9 2 -

ADNH DH 681 -7.4 -9.1 -29.6 na 0.3 na 0 -

CBI DH 993 13.5 35.5 26.0 14.5 1.6 na 1 -

AGTHIA DH 1,142 -9.2 -8.6 11.0 14.3 2.8 18.3 10 -

INVESTB DH 735 -15.0 -24.4 -37.7 6.2 0.9 na 1 -

NBS DH 911 -6.1 -11.5 -23.3 7.1 0.7 na 1 -

JULPHAR DH 712 -0.4 -0.8 -12.9 na 1.2 na 0 -

DEYAAR DB 692 -16.5 -25.8 -42.1 na 0.6 na 1 -

BOS DH 806 0.0 -10.8 -23.1 6.7 0.7 na 1 -

RAKCEC DH 657 -14.5 -15.7 -1.7 7.8 0.9 10.3 6 -

AJMANBAN DB 629 4.8 21.5 -4.5 11.9 1.9 na 1 -

AMANAT DB 531 1.4 1.3 -2.3 na 0.8 na 0 -

TAQA DH 677 -6.8 -18.0 -48.8 na 0.6 na 0 -

NCTH DH 559 8.6 -15.6 -32.1 na 3.0 na 0 -

AMLAK DB 486 -14.4 -31.6 16.7 29.8 1.2 na 1 -ESHRAQ DH 316 -9.1 -19.4 -33.3 na 0.6 na 1 -

RAKPROP DH 256 -13.0 -19.0 -34.7 na 0.3 na 1 -

ADAVIATI DH 338 -7.0 2.2 -7.0 na 0.5 na 0 -

GCEM DH 217 3.2 -2.0 -11.8 na 0.7 na 0 -

EIC DH 247 0.0 0.0 -4.0 na 1.7 na 0 -

ADNIC DH 296 0.7 -7.9 -52.3 na 0.9 na 1 -

ALAIN DH 245 0.0 0.0 0.0 na 0.8 na 0 -

DSI DB 205 -22.4 -42.7 -56.7 8.0 0.3 3.2 12 -

NMDC DH 348 -6.8 13.5 -25.9 na 0.4 na 0 -

TABREED DB 195 -19.8 -14.2 -5.8 7.4 0.2 8.4 3 -

ARKAN DH 415 -3.3 -3.3 -18.7 na 0.8 na 0 -

NCC DB . . - . na . na -

Tabreed Industrials 130 1.0

Arkan Building M Materials 124 0.0

National Cement Materials .

Al Ain Ahlia Ins Financials 158 na

Drake & Scull In Industrials 152 2.5

Natl Marine Dred Industrials 142 0.0

Gulf Cement Co Materials 186 0.0

Emirates Insuran Financials 181 na

Abu Dhabi Natl Financials 180 0.0

Eshraq Propertie Financials 261 1.7

Rak Properties Financials 256 0.5

Abu Dhabi Aviati Industrials 237 0.1

Abu Dhabi Nation Utilities 305 0.2

Natl Corp Tou Ho Cons. Disc. 278 0.0

Amlak Finance Financials 267 7.2

Ras Al Khaimah C Industrials 358 0.6

Ajman Bank Pjsc Financials 337 0.8

Amanat Holdings Financials 321 1.8

Gulf Pharmaceuti Healthcare 442 0.1

Deyaar Developme Financials 409 1.0

Bank Of Sharjah Financials 380 0.3

Agthia Group Pjs Cons. Staples 479 0.4

Invest Bank Financials 458 0.1

Sharjah Islamic Financials 444 0.1

Union Properties Financials 563 2.2

Abu Dhabi Nat Ho Cons. Disc. 518 0.2

Commercial Bank Financials 484 1.2

Nat Bk Umm Al Qa Financials 694 0.0

Dana Gas Energy 676 3.0

Mashreqbank Financials 675 0.1

Waha Capital Financials 751 1.0

United Arab Bank Financials 738 0.1

Dubai Parks & Re Cons. Disc. 737 1.7

Union Natl Bk/Ab Financials 1,019 1.1

Aramex Pjsc Industrials 972 1.1

Natl Bk Fujairah Financials 856 0.1

Natl Bk Ras Al-K Financials 1,080 0.3

Air Arabia Pjsc Industrials 1,068 3.7

Damac Properties Financials 1,048 4.6

Comm Bk Of Dubai Financials 1,675 0.1

Abu Dhabi Islami Financials 1,538 0.8

Dubai Investment Financials 1,415 3.9

Emirates Nbd Pjs Financials 4,134 1.2

Emirates Integra Telecoms 2,633 0.9

Arabtec Holding Industrials 733 19.2

Dubai Financial Financials 621 2.6

Natl Bk Of Abu D Financials 1,361 1.8

Emaar Malls Grou Financials 1,217 3.2

Aldar Properties Financials 1,884 8.9

Dubai Islamic Financials 1,540 6.4

Dp World Ltd Industrials 2,880 4.1

First Gulf Bank Financials 2,475 8.0

Emaar Prop Pjsc Financials 4,671 18.6Abu Dhabi Commer Financials 3,200 3.7

$ Performance

($mn) ($mn)

MSCI UAE 28,349 98.1

Etisalat Telecoms 7,767 32.1

Ticker Name Sector FF Mkt Cap 3MADTV

66

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Figure 227: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 228: UAE - dirham


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

0

5

10

15

20

250

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E


90

95

100

105

110

115

120

1251303.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Jan-0

0

Dec-0

0

Nov-0

1

Oct-02

Sep-0

3

Aug-0

4

Jul-05

Jun-0

6

May-0

7

Apr-08

Mar-09

Feb-1

0

Jan-1

1

Dec-1

1

Nov-1

2

Oct-13

Sep-1

4

Aug-1

5

AED vs $ AED vs EUR UAE REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

Japan

Iran

India

Korea

China

Singapore

Thailand

Oman

EU

EuroArea


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E


9.6

4.9

9.8

3.2 3.2

-5.2

1.6

4.9

7.2

4.3 4.6

3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

67

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20/20


Figure 231: CPI, %YoY Figure 232: Credit growth

Figure 233: Manufacturing PMI Figure 234: Dubai airport cargo volumes, %YoY

Figure 235: Trade balance Figure 236: Consumer confidence index

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Jan-0

9

Jun-0

9

Nov-0

9

Apr-10

Sep-1

0

Feb-1

1

Jul-11

Dec-1

1

May-1

2

Oct-12

Mar-13

Aug-1

3

Jan-1

4

Jun-1

4

Nov-1

4

Apr-15

Sep-1

5

CPI, % YoY Money supply (M1), % YoY (RHS)

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan-0

5

Aug-0

5

Mar-06

Oct-06

May-0

7

Dec-0

7

Jul-08

Feb-0

9

Sep-0

9

Apr-10

Nov-1

0

Jun-1

1

Jan-1

2

Aug-1

2

Mar-13

Oct-13

May-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jul-15


30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jan-1

2

Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-1

3

Apr-13

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-1

4

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-1

5

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

International reserves ($bn)

40

45

50

55

60

65

Sep-1

2

Nov-1

2

Jan-1

3

Mar-13

May-1

3

Jul-13

Sep-1

3

Nov-1

3

Jan-1

4

Mar-14

May-1

4

Jul-14

Sep-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan-1

5

Mar-15

May-1

5

Jul-15

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5


-20-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Mar-11

Jun-1

1

Sep-1

1

Dec-1

1

Mar-12

Jun-1

2

Sep-1

2

Dec-1

2

Mar-13

Jun-1

3

Sep-1

3

Dec-1

3

Mar-14

Jun-1

4

Sep-1

4

Dec-1

4

Mar-15

Jun-1

5

Sep-1

5

Dubai Airport cargo volume, %YoY

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Apr-07

Oct-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

Oct-10

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Oct-12

Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Consumer confidence Index

EMEA pt2

Documents

Transcript of EMEA pt2