EMC Annual Review: CPC’s Forecasts FY 2011
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EMC Annual Review: CPC’s Forecasts FY 2011 Edward O’Lenic Chief, Operations Branch NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center December 6, 2011
description
EMC Annual Review: CPC’s Forecasts FY 2011. Edward O’Lenic Chief, Operations Branch NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center December 6, 2011. Summary. Metrics Atlantic Tropical Storm Season GPRA/New Metric Regional, seasonal 3-month outlook skill, 1995-2011 Extended-Range skill Feedback - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of EMC Annual Review: CPC’s Forecasts FY 2011
EMC Annual Review: CPC’s Forecasts FY 2011
Edward O’LenicChief, Operations Branch
NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction CenterDecember 6, 2011
Summary
• Metrics– Atlantic Tropical Storm Season– GPRA/New Metric– Regional, seasonal 3-month outlook skill, 1995-2011– Extended-Range skill
• Feedback– CFSv2 forecasts – GFS
• Future/New Products
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39M (record #) hits in November, more than 1M/month since April, 2011
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Tropical Storm Forecasts
ATLANTIC14-19 Named Storms / 19 7-10 Hurricanes / 73-5 Major Hurricanes / 3An ACE range of 135%-215% of the 1981-2010 median. / 133
EAST PACIFIC9-15 named storms / 115-8 hurricanes / 101-3 major hurricanes, / 5An ACE range 45%-105% of the median. / 113
Official CPC product made in collaboration with NHC/NWS and HRD/NOAA
2011 ACE Outlook In A Historical Perspective
ACE=∑ ∑ Vmax2 for all named storms while at least TS strength (4x daily).
•2011 is an above-normal season, reflecting continuation of high activity era.
NS T
8-14-Day Official and NAEFST, P Forecast Performance
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Official
NAEFS NAEFS
Official
Official, T
88 ((0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal) 0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal)
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GPRA: 48-month running mean of the HSS of3-Month T outlooks at non-EC Stations
SKILL GOAL
SKILL ACTUAL
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Skill*, DJF, JJA, T, P 3-Month Outlooks, 1995-2010 (*Fractional improvement over random x 100)
DJF T
JJA T JJA P
DJF P
2720
3212
Above-Average 1 – Month Forecast Skill
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DJF 2010/2011 SST anomalies
T2m over land
Global
North America
Precipitation
AVE:0.400.33
AVE:0.330.25
Spatial mean L0 seasonal P anomaly correlationV2 Compares with V1 over NOAM during 2011
Spatial Mean L0 seasonal T anomaly correlationV2 Much Better than V1 over NOAM during 2011
Land T2m
Global
North America
AVE:0.190.25
AVE:0.150.29
JJA2010
Obs L0 Fcst L3 Fcst L6 Fcst
CFSv1 CFSv2
Nino34 Nino34
DMI DMI
MDR MDR
Tropics/Sub-Tropics SST indices: V2 Much Lower Spread, More Accurate, than V1
Wheeler-Hendon Diagrams of GEFS, Statistical Model MJO Forecasts
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V2 Forecast WH-MJO Index Much Better than V1
Future: Dynamic (Interactive) Verification Web Tool
6-10 day T forecast reliabilityOctober, 2009-September 2010,
Official and automated.
8-14 day T forecast reliabilityOctober, 2009-September 2010,
Official and automated.
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Total Number of Forecasts by Fiscal Year
2007: 796 2008: 992 2009: 1094 2010: 1106 2011: 920
% of Forecasts With HSS > 10, HSS > 15, & HSS > 20 by Fiscal Year
200763%, 53%,
44%
200856%, 45%,
36%
200962%, 53%,
43%
201067%, 57%,
48%
201172%, 63%,
52%
Future: A New GPRA Metric
Future: Dynamic POE (dPOE) Web Tool
• Developed collaboratively with U. Arizona
• Enables user interaction with observed 3-month data
• Gives users numbers to associate with forecast classes.
• User feedback obtained by CLIMAS
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Future: dPOE• Will Allow users to ask and
answer questions about the meaning of a forecast
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Wishlist
• More coordination on access to data from hindcasts and model simulations,
• Coordination on model simulations to assess biases in the CFS,
• Collaboration on understanding (and documentation) of biases for GFS upgrades,
• Future of CFS?
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Summary
• Metrics– Atlantic Tropical Storm Season– GPRA/New Metric– Regional, seasonal 3-month outlook skill, 1995-2011– Extended-Range skill
• Feedback– CFSv2 forecasts – GFS
• Future/New Products
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