EMarketer Global Mobile Landscape 2015

7/25/2019 EMarketer Global Mobile Landscape 2015

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GLOBAL MOBILELANDSCAPE

2015A Country-by-Country Guideto Mobile Phone and

Smartphone UsageRAHUL CHADHA

Osbaldo Franco

Contributors: Victor Aka, Daiane Bobka, Man-Chung Cheung, Jasmine Enberg, Osbaldo Franco,

Jeane Han, Jennifer Jhun, Chris Keating, Cindy Liu, Matthew Michaels, Marcus Plieninger,

Hilary Rengert, Natalie Marin-Sharp

Read this on

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GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015:A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE 2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2

CONTENTS

2 Global Mobile Landscape 2015: A Country-by-Country

Guide to Mobile Phone and Smartphone Usage

3 Asia-Pacific

19 Europe

37 Latin America

44 The Middle East and Africa

46 North America

52 Related eMarketer Reports

52 Related Links

53 Editorial and Production Contributors

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TOMOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

The mobile phone has reshaped the means by which the majority of the world communicatesit is now an intrinsic

part of the majority of peoples lives worldwide. Still, there remains substantial gaps in the level of development in

individual countries.

eMarketer estimates that mobile phone users

worldwide will number 4.43 billion this year, reaching

61.1% of the global population. By 2019, those figures

will climb to 5.07 billion and 67.1%.

The number of smartphone users is still growing at a

double-digit rate, as much of the developing world gains

access to the internet for the first time through these

connected devices. Smartphones have already reached

their saturation point in most developed markets. With

adoption slowing in places like China, growth will shiftto countries like India and Indonesia, where fierce

competition among smartphone manufacturers will

drive down the prices of devices, making them more

accessible to a wider swath of consumers.

An estimated 70% to 90% of all mobile subscriptions

will be for mobile broadband by 2020, and half of

those subscriptions will be in the Asia-Pacific region.

This move by consumers to faster 3G and 4G mobile

broadband networks will drive the consumption of

mobile content, as well as the wider use of apps.

Measuring the progress of 4G is a good way to

gauge the state of mobile networks in a particular

market, as its use reflects the allocation of spectrum

by government regulators, the presence of telecoms

willing to invest in infrastructure needed for 4G and

a consumer population with the income to afford

data packages.

According to Cisco Systems, 4G connections will

account for 26% of all connections by 2019, and

that 68% of all mobile data traffic will travel over

4G networks.

WHATS IN THIS REPORT?An overview of the mobile phone

landscape in eMarketers core countries of coverage,

focusing on penetration rates, original equipment

manufacturer (OEM) market share, mobile operating

system market share and the state of 4G.

2014

1.59

2015

1.86

2016

2.08

2017

2.29

2018

2.48

2019

2.66

billions, % of mobile phone users and % change

Smartphone Users and Penetration Worldwide,2014-2019

37.7%

24.9%

42.0%

16.7%

45.2%

12.0%

48.0%

10.1%

50.3%

8.2%

52.5%

7.2%

Smartphone users % of mobile phone users % change

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use thesmartphone(s) at least once per monthSource: eMarketer, July 2015

193859 www.eMarketer.com

KEY STAT:eMarketer projects that there will be 1.86 billion

smartphone users in 2015, with the ranks of that group

swelling to 2.66 billion by 2019. At that point, more than

half of all mobile phone users will be using smartphones.


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ASIA-PACIFIC

Thanks to a handful of countries with massive

populations, Asia-Pacific is the worlds largest market

for mobile devices. The proliferation of low-cost

mobile devices in these markets has contributed

significantly to the fast adoption of both mobile

phones and smartphones. However, there is

significant disparity among many of the countries

grouped together in this region, which includes

developed markets such as Japan and South Korea,

along with the now-maturing China and the emerging

markets in India and Indonesia.

eMarketer estimates that mobile phone users in the

region will total 2.51 billion in 2015, a figure that is

expected to climb to 2.88 billion by 2019, when 69.4% of

the population in the region will have a mobile phone.

millions and % of population

Mobile Phone Users and Penetration in Asia-Pacific,by Country, 2013-2019

Mobile phone users (millions)

China*

India

Indonesia

Japan

Philippines

Vietnam

Thailand

South Korea

Malaysia

Australia

Hong Kong

Singapore

Other

Asia-Pacific

Mobile phone user penetration (% of population)

Japan

South KoreaSingapore

Hong Kong

Australia

China*

Malaysia

Thailand

Philippines

Vietnam

Indonesia

India

Other

Asia-Pacific

2013

959.3

524.9

124.3

103.8

63.4

51.6

42.4

40.2

19.4

17.5

5.7

4.4

279.3

2,236.3

81.6%

82.1%80.4%

80.2%

78.5%

71.1%

65.4%

62.9%

60.0%

55.8%

49.5%

43.0%

45.5%

56.7%

2014

1,003.2

581.1

136.9

104.9

68.1

54.7

44.1

40.5

20.8

18.2

5.8

4.6

296.4

2,379.2

82.6%

82.6%81.8%

81.6%

80.6%

74.0%

69.1%

65.0%

63.2%

58.5%

54.0%

47.0%

47.6%

59.8%

2015

1,033.6

638.4

149.2

106.0

71.6

57.1

45.6

40.8

21.7

18.6

5.9

4.7

314.3

2,507.4

83.5%

83.0%82.8%

82.6%

81.9%

75.9%

71.0%

67.0%

65.3%

60.5%

58.3%

51.0%

49.8%

62.5%

2016

1,056.1

684.1

161.4

106.4

74.7

59.2

46.7

41.1

22.4

19.0

6.0

4.8

332.4

2,614.3

84.0%

83.5%

83.2%

83.0%

82.7%

77.3%

72.3%

68.5%

66.9%

62.1%

62.5%

54.0%

52.0%

64.6%

2017

1,070.7

730.7

173.3

106.8

77.2

61.0

47.8

41.4

23.0

19.4

6.0

4.9

351.1

2,713.3

84.5%

84.0%

83.7%

83.5%

83.4%

78.0%

73.3%

69.8%

68.0%

63.5%

66.5%

57.0%

54.2%

66.4%

2018

1,080.5

775.5

184.0

107.1

79.2

62.9

48.7

41.6

23.5

19.7

6.1

5.0

370.1

2,803.8

84.9%

84.5%

84.1%

84.0%

83.9%

78.5%

73.7%

71.0%

68.6%

64.8%

70.0%

59.8%

56.4%

68.1%

2019

1,086.8

813.2

193.4

107.2

81.0

64.5

49.5

41.9

23.9

20.0

6.1

5.2

389.4

2,882.1

85.2%

84.9%

84.4%

84.4%

84.3%

78.7%

74.0%

72.0%

69.0%

65.9%

73.0%

62.0%

58.6%

69.4%

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and usethe phone(s) at least once per month; numbers may not add up to totaldue to rounding; *excludes Hong KongSource: eMarketer, April 2015; confirmed and republished, July 2015


The number of mobile phone internet users in the region,

meanwhile, will increase from 1.25 billion in 2015 to

1.73 billion over the next four years. The mobile phone

internet user penetration rate will also shoot up, climbing

from 31.1% in 2015 to 41.6% in 2019.

Smartphone users will see similarly dramatic gains over

the forecast period, with their numbers swelling from

1.02 billion in 2015 to 1.48 billion in 2019. Smartphone

user growth will register at 15.3% this year, but decline to

8.6% by 2019.


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millions and % of mobile phone users

Smartphone Users and Penetration in Asia-Pacific, byCountry, 2014-2019

Smartphone users (millions)

China*

India

Indonesia

Japan

South Korea

Philippines

Vietnam

Thailand

Australia

Malaysia

Hong Kong

Singapore

Other

Asia-Pacific

Smartphone user penetration (% of mobile phone users)

Singapore

South KoreaHong Kong

Australia

China*

Japan

Malaysia

Thailand

Indonesia

Philippines

Vietnam

India

Other

Asia-Pacific

2014

482.7

123.3

44.7

46.2

32.2

21.8

16.6

15.4

13.5

8.9

4.4

3.8

74.5

888.0

83.1%

79.5%76.6%

74.3%

48.1%

44.0%

42.6%

34.9%

32.6%

32.0%

30.4%

21.2%

25.1%

37.3%

2015

525.8

167.9

55.4

51.8

33.6

26.2

20.7

17.9

14.6

10.1

4.8

4.0

91.1

1,023.9

85.2%

82.3%80.7%

78.4%

50.9%

48.9%

46.6%

39.2%

37.1%

36.6%

36.2%

26.3%

29.0%

40.8%

2016

563.3

204.1

65.2

55.8

34.6

29.9

24.6

20.0

15.4

11.0

5.0

4.2

106.7

1,139.8

86.3%

84.3%84.0%

81.0%

53.3%

52.4%

49.2%

42.8%

40.4%

40.0%

41.5%

29.8%

32.1%

43.6%

2017

599.3

243.8

74.9

58.9

35.6

33.3

28.6

21.9

16.0

11.8

5.2

4.3

121.3

1,254.7

87.2%

86.0%

85.9%

82.6%

56.0%

55.1%

51.3%

45.8%

43.2%

43.1%

46.8%

33.4%

34.5%

46.2%

2018

640.5

279.2

83.5

60.9

36.5

36.5

32.0

23.4

16.5

12.7

5.3

4.4

134.7

1,366.3

88.0%

87.6%

87.2%

83.6%

59.3%

56.9%

54.3%

48.1%

45.4%

46.1%

50.9%

36.0%

36.4%

48.7%

2019

687.7

317.1

92.0

62.6

37.0

39.2

35.2

24.8

16.8

13.7

5.4

4.6

147.2

1,483.4

88.9%

88.4%

88.3%

84.3%

63.3%

58.4%

57.3%

50.0%

47.6%

48.4%

54.6%

39.0%

37.8%

51.5%

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use thesmartphone(s) at least once per month; *excludes Hong KongSource: eMarketer, July 2015


The buildout of wireless infrastructure in various

Asia-Pacific markets is pushing users to faster 3G and 4G

networks. While strong 4G penetration remains an as-yet

unrealized dream for the region, the shift to the faster

network has begun; GSMA projects that 28% of mobile

connections will be 4G by 2020.

AUSTRALIAWhile Australia is usually lumped in with other Asia-Pacific

markets, it stands apart from most other countries in

the region. From a cultural perspective, Australia is more

closely aligned with developed Western countries than

with its geographic neighbors, resulting in a mobile phone

user base whose behaviors are similar to those in the US

or Canada.

In fact, eMarketer estimates that mobile phone

penetration in Australia will exceed that of the US in 2015,

at 81.9% of the overall population. Due to Australias

smaller population, that translates to 18.6 million mobile

phone userswell behind the 258.0 million projection for

the US.

Mobile Phone* and Smartphone** Users in Australia,2014-2019

Mobile phoneusers* (millions)

% of population

% change

Smartphoneusers** (millions)

% of mobilephone users

% change

2014

18.2

80.6%

3.8%

13.5

74.3%

17.5%

2015

18.6

81.9%

2.6%

14.6

78.4%

8.3%

2016

19.0

82.7%

2.0%

15.4

81.0%

5.4%

2017

19.4

83.4%

2.0%

16.0

82.6%

4.0%

2018

19.7

83.9%

1.6%

16.5

83.6%

2.9%

2019

20.0

84.3%

1.5%

16.8

84.3%

2.3%

Note: *individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and usethe phone(s) at least once per month; **individuals of any age who own atleast one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month

Source: eMarketer, July 2015193899 www.eMarketer.com

Additionally, smartphone penetration is quite high,

expected to hit 78.4% of mobile phone users in 2015, an

8.3% increase over the previous year. Australia is now

moving into mature market territory as far as smartphone

penetration is concerned, with the annual growth rate

remaining in the single digits through 2019, the end of

eMarketers forecast period.

Feature phones still account for about one in four mobile

phone users in Australia, and there are signs that these

users are wedded to their less capable devices moreoften than not. Research firm Roy Morgan conducted

a survey of nonsmartphone userswhich it defined as

those who used a phone that lacked both a computer-like

functionality and the ability to download appsbetween

July 2014 and December 2014, and found that 67% of

them had no intention of upgrading to a smartphone.

While Googles Android OS is the market leader in

Australia, its position is not as dominant as it is in many

other countries. Kantar Worldpanel Com Tech found that

smartphones running Android accounted for 52.3% of

sales of the devices in March 2015, while iOS made up

38.4%. Windows Phone was third, at 7.3%.


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% of total

Smartphone Sales Share in Australia, by OS,June 2012-March 2015

Android iOS Windows Other

June 2012 60.9% 27.3% 5.3% 6.4%

Dec 2012 56.0% 38.5% 3.0% 2.5%

June 2013 64.8% 27.4% 5.2% 2.6%

Dec 2013 57.5% 34.8% 5.2% 2.4%

June 2014 68.0% 25.5% 5.3% 1.2%

Dec 2014 43.7% 45.1% 9.2% 2.0%

March 2015 52.3% 38.4% 7.3% 2.0%

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to roundingSource: Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, May 2015


While mobile phone users in Australia have access to

devices manufactured by a number of brands, they are

gravitating toward Apples iPhone. According to data from

the International Data Corporation (IDC), Apple devices

accounted for 49% of smartphones shipped in Australia

in Q1 2015, compared with 38% a year earlier. Samsung

devices made up 31% of smartphones shipped in Q1

2015, a decline from 40% the previous year.

Q1 2014 Q1 2015

% of total

Smartphone Shipment Share in Australia, by Brand,Q1 2014 & Q1 2015

Samsung40%

Samsung31%

Apple38%

Apple

49%

HTC

4%

HTC3%

Microsoft4%

Microsoft3%

Telstra2%

Telstra3%

Other12%

Other11%

Source: International Data Corporation (IDC) as cited in press release;eMarketer calculations, June 10, 2015


A survey of internet users in Australia conducted by the

Australian Interactive Media Industry Association (AIMIA)

and Complete the Picture Consulting in October 2014

found that nearly half of respondents owned an Apple

mobile phone. Samsung controlled one-quarter of themarket, followed by Nokia (7%), HTC (5%), LG (4%) and

Sony Ericsson (3%).

% of respondents

Mobile Phone Ownership in Australia, by Brand,2011-2014

2011 2012 2013 2014

Apple 32% 40% 45% 49%

Samsung 13% 18% 28% 25%

Nokia 28% 16% 9% 7%

HTC 8% 11% 7% 5%

LG 4% 4% 2% 4%

Sony Ericsson 5% 3% 2% 3%

Motorola 3% 2% 2% 1%

BlackBerry 3% 2% 1%


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CHINAChinas mobile phone market is now the largest in the

world, with figures that dwarf those of any other country.

eMarketer estimates that the number of mobile phone

users in the country will reach 1.03 billion this year, giving

it a 75.9% mobile phone user penetration rate. That puts

China behind Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong

and Australia in terms of mobile phone uptake. eMarketerprojects that by 2019, mobile phone users will number

1.09 billion, with mobile phones achieving an uptake rate

of 78.7%.

China is also the worlds largest smartphone market,

with eMarketer estimating that users of the devices will

number 525.8 million in 2015 and 687.7 million by 2019.

Smartphone penetration among Chinas population will

reach 38.6% and 49.8% during that time.

There are signs, however, that Chinas smartphone

market is slowing down. The IDC released data in May2015 showing that smartphone shipments in China fell

4.3% year over year in Q1 2015. For the most part,

first-time smartphone buyers who can afford the devices

have already acquired them. Now smartphone retailers

have to deal with buyers looking to replace or upgrade

existing devices. eMarketer projects that the annual

smartphone user growth rate will decline from 8.9% in

2015 to 7.4% by 2019.

While the rollout of 4G in China has been relatively recent,

with the countrys three state-owned service providers

China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom

receiving 4G licenses in December 2013, these faster

networks show signs of quick user adoption. According

to the China Academy of Information and Communication

Technology (CAICT), 4G LTE-enabled phones accounted

for only 16.3% of mobile phone shipments in China in

April 2014, with 3G phones making up 71.5% of phones

shipped. By April 2015, that ratio had completely reversed:

4G-LTE phones accounted for 83.8% of shipped devices,

and 3G phones made up only 5.4%.

% of mobile phone shipments

3G vs. 4G LTE-Enabled Smartphone Shipment Share inChina, April 2014 & April 2015

April 2014 April 2015

3G 71.5% 5.4%

4G LTE-enabled 16.3% 83.8%

Note: April 2014 total mobile phone shipments=40.7 million; April 2015total mobile phone shipments=45.2 millionSource: China Academy of Information and Communication Technology(CAICT), "April 2015 China Mobile Phone Market Analysis," May 2015


CAICT also found that the number of 4G LTE-enabled

phones shipped between January 2015 and April 2015

was 124.0 million, an increase of 658.7% from the same

time period the previous year.

millions and % change

4G LTE-Enabled Smartphone Shipments in China,April 2014 & April 2015

April 2014

16.3

April 2015

124.0(658.7%)

Note: data is for Jan-April of each year; during Jan-April 2015, 4GLTE-enabled smartphone shipments accounted for 80.5% of total mobilephone shipmentsSource: China Academy of Information and Communication Technology(CAICT), "April 2015 China Mobile Phone Market Analysis"; eMarketercalculations, May 2015


In comparison, the Ministry of Industry and Information

Technology (MIIT) reported that 171 million 4G-enabled

mobile phones were shipped in China in 2014, accounting

for 37.8% of devices. The number of 3G devices made up

nearly half of all devices shipped, at 220 million.

millions and % of total

Mobile Phone Shipments in China, by ConnectionType, 2014

2G61 (13.5%)

3G220 (48.7%)

4G171 (37.8%)

Source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) - People'sRepublic of China as cited by Tencent Tech, Jan 13, 2015



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The increase of 4G-capable phones does not translate

into a strictly equal adoption of 4G data plans, however,

as consumers in China are wary of the more expensive

data plans that come with faster network speeds. But

the adoption of 4G plans in the country is expected to

be boosted by plans from the three big telecoms to cut

mobile data prices, a move with the likely outcome of

migrating customers to 4G contracts.

According to Mobidia and Ovum, there were 56.1 million

4G LTE connections in China as of December 2014, a

4.3% penetration rate among the overall population.

Cisco reported that 4G connections accounted for a

smaller portion of all mobile connections in 2014, making

up 5%. Cisco projected that 4G connections would

constitute 30% of mobile connections in China by 2019,

when nearly three-quarters of all mobile data traffic would

travel over 4G networks.

Chinas device manufacturer market is rife with strong

competition among a number of players, both foreign anddomestic, with Apple and domestic manufacturer Xiaomi

both having a banner 2014 in the country. In particular,

Apples release in China of the incredibly popular iPhone

6 and iPhone 6 Plus models in fall 2014 catapulted the

brand into the top tier of smartphone manufacturers

there. According to research from the IDC, Apple shipped

14.5 million smartphones in Q1 2015, giving it 14.7% of

the market share that quartera 62.1% year-over-year

increase borne on the back of the iPhone 6.

Xiaomi, which has provided devices at a lower price point

and relied on a unique marketing strategy that leverages

social media, shipped 13.5 million units during that

time, giving it 13.7% of the market share. Huawei was

responsible for 11.4% of units shipped, seeing 39.7%

year-over-year growth. Samsung has struggled in China,

shipping just 9.6 million units in Q1 2015, a 53.0% drop

from the previous year. Lenovo, too, has seen its fortunes

slip, shipping 8.2 million units in the quarter.

millions, % change and % of total

Smartphone Shipments in China, by Brand,Q1 2014 & Q1 2015

Q1 2014 Q1 2015

Apple

Xiaomi

Huawei

Samsung

Lenovo*

Other

Total

Smartphoneshipments

8.9

9.5

8.0

20.5

10.7

45.7

103.2

% oftotal

8.7%

9.2%

7.8%

19.9%

10.3%

44.3%

100.0%

Smartphoneshipments

14.5

13.5

11.2

9.6

8.2

41.7

98.8

% oftotal

14.7%

13.7%

11.4%

9.7%

8.3%

42.2%

100.0%

%change

62.1%

42.3%

39.7%

-53.0%

-23.1%

-8.8%

-4.3%

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding; *includesshipments from its smartphone subsidiary Motorola, which Lenovoacquired during Q4 2014Source: International Data Corporation (IDC) as cited in press release, May10, 2015


Data from Counterpoint similarly demonstrated Apples

success in China. The research firm found that Apple

devices made up 15.7% of smartphones shipped in

Q1 2015, although that was a decline from 18.0% theprevious quarter. Xiaomi had a 13.1% share, followed by

Huawei (10.5%) and Samsung (8.6%).

% of total

Smartphone Shipment Share in China, by Brand,Q1 2014, Q4 2014 & Q1 2015

Q1 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015

Apple 8.8% 18.0% 15.7%

Xiaomi 10.5% 13.2% 13.1%

Huawei 8.0% 10.1% 10.5%

Samsung 18.5% 8.5% 8.6%

Other 54.2% 50.3% 52.2%Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to roundingSource: Counterpoint as cited in company blog, April 30, 2015


Meanwhile, Strategy Analytics reported that Xiaomi

controlled a larger overall share of Chinas smartphone

market in Q1 2015, at 12.8%, just ahead of Apples 12.3%


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millions, % change vs. same period of prior year and % of total

Smartphone Shipments in China, by Brand,Q1 2014-Q1 2015

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015

Xiaomi

% of total

Apple

% of total

Huawei

% of total

Other

% of total

Total

% change vs.same period ofprior year

10.6

11.3%

7.8

8.3%

8.0

8.5%

67.2

71.9%

93.6

38.9%

14.5

14.2%

5.0

4.9%

11.9

11.6%

70.6

69.3%

102.0

29.4%

17.0

16.2%

4.9

4.7%

9.6

9.1%

73.5

70.0%

105.0

31.9%

15.7

12.8%

13.4

10.9%

11.9

9.7%

82.0

66.6%

123.0

34.7%

14.0

12.8%

13.5

12.3%

11.2

10.2%

71.1

64.7%

109.8

17.3%

Source: Strategy Analytics, "China Smartphone Vendor & OS Marketshare inQ1 2015" as cited in press release, April 29, 2015


Although Googles Android OS remains the dominant

operating system in China, Apples iOS has managed to

grab a bigger slice due to the immense popularity of its

newest device. According to Kantar Worldpanel ComTech,

72.0% of smartphones sold in March 2015 operated

with Androids OS, while iOS was installed on 26.1% of

devices sold. For Apple, that was an increase from 12.8%

in June 2014, a few months before the release of the

iPhone 6.

% of total

Smartphone Sales Share in China, by OS,Dec 2012-March 2015

Android iOS Other

Dec 2012 73.7% 21.2% 5.1%June 2013 69.9% 24.7% 5.4%

Dec 2013 78.6% 19.0% 2.5%

June 2014 84.3% 12.8% 2.9%

Dec 2014 77.0% 21.5% 1.5%

March 2015 72.0% 26.1% 1.9%



There are other signs that Android is losing its iron grip

on China. Shipments of Android phones slipped between

2013 and 2104, according to MIIT, which reported a 12.4%

decline over that period.

Marketers, too, should take note of the greater potential

offered by targeting Apple users. According to a 2014 poll

of smartphone users in China conducted by Sinomonitor,

the median monthly income of those running iOS was

nearly double that of Android users and Windows Phone

users alike.

in Chinese yuan renminbi

Median Monthly Household Income of SmartphoneUsers in China, by OS, 2014

iOS 14,217

Android 7,508

Windows Phone 7,229

Other 6,580

Note: ages 15-64 living in 62 tier 1-5 cities and townshipsSource: Sinomonitor, CMMS as cited in ZenithOptimedia, "2014 ChinaMedia Scene," Sep 24, 2014


According to company filings, mobile service provider

China Mobile had 815.4 million subscribers as of Q1 2015

China Unicom had 294.8 million subscribers that quarter,

while China Telecom had 188.8 million.

INDIA

The number of mobile phone users in India has seena steady rise over the past four years, and that trend is

expected to continue through 2019. eMarketer forecasts

that there will be 638.4 million mobile phone users in

India in 2015, making it one of the largest mobile phone

markets in the world. That figure will increase to

813.2 million by 2019, although the annual growth rate wil

decline, falling to 4.9% by the end of the forecast period.

Mobile Phone* and Smartphone** Users in India,2014-2019


% of population

% change



% change

2014

581.1

47.0%

10.7%

123.3

21.2%

62.1%

2015

638.4

51.0%

9.9%

167.9

26.3%

36.2%

2016

684.1

54.0%

7.2%

204.1

29.8%

21.5%

2017

730.7

57.0%

6.8%

243.8

33.4%

19.5%

2018

775.5

59.8%

6.1%

279.2

36.0%

14.5%

2019

813.2

62.0%

4.9%

317.1

39.0%

13.6%

Note: *individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and usethe phone(s) at least once per month; **individuals of any age who own atleast one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per monthSource: eMarketer, July 2015


eMarketer estimates that there will be 167.9 millionsmartphone users in India in 2015, with that number

increasing to 317.1 million by 2019. The annual growth rate

in smartphone usage will also remain relatively strong

over the forecast period, although it will decline from

36.2% to 13.6% as the market approaches saturation.


9/54


While smartphones are seeing strong growth in India,

feature phones remain the dominant mobile phone type

there. According to research from IDC, feature phones

accounted for 65% of mobile phones shipped in the

country in Q4 2014.

% of total

Mobile Phone Shipment Share in India, by Type,Q1-Q4 2014

Q1 2014

72% 28%

Q2 2014

71% 29%

Q3 2014

68% 32%

Q4 2014

65% 35%

Feature phones Smartphones

Source: International Data Corporation (IDC), "Asia Pacific Quarterly MobilePhone Tracker Q4 2014," March 25, 2015


Data from CyberMedia Research (CMR) similarly

found that feature phones dominated mobile phone

shipments in India in 2014, accounting for 180 million of

the 257 million mobile phones shipped last year.

millionsMobile Phone Shipments in India, by Type, 2014

Feature phones 180

Smartphones 77

Total 257

Source: CyberMedia Research (CMR), "India Monthly Mobile HandsetsMarket Review, CY 2014" as cited in press release; eMarketer calculations,Feb 7, 2015


Additional Q3 2014 data from IDC found that Samsung

was the brand leader in feature phones shipped in India,

accounting for 16% of shipments. It was followed by

domestic OEM Micromax (14%), Nokia (11%), and

homegrown companies Lava (10%) and Karbonn (8%).

However, in a sign of just how fractured the feature

phone market remains in India, IDC reported that other

manufacturers collectively accounted for 41% of featurephones shipped that quarter.

% of total

Feature Phone Shipment Share in India, by Brand,Q3 2014

Samsung16%

Micromax14%

Nokia11%

Lava10%

Karbonn8%

Other41%

Source: International Data Corporation (IDC), "Asia Pacific Quarterly MobilePhone Tracker Q3 2014" as cited in press release, Nov 26, 2014


While there is a demonstrated demand for smartphones

in India, there have been several challenges in rolling

out high-speed mobile broadband in the country, among

them high investment costs for service providers and the

slow allocation of spectrum for 4G networks. According

to Cisco Systems, the number of 4G connections in Indiawas so low the company effectively rounded the figure

down and reported that it accounted for 0% of all mobile

connections in 2014. It also found that 4G mobile traffic

accounted for only 3% of all mobile traffic in that year.

Mobile Data and Device Metrics in India, 2014 & 2019

Mobile devices

Mobile device users (millions)

Mobile device user penetration (% of population)

Smartphones in use (millions)Connected tablets in use (millions)

4G connections (% of total mobile connections)*

Mobile data

Mobile data traffic per user (MB/month)

Smartphone data traffic (% of total)

Tablet data traffic (% of total)

Laptop data traffic (% of total)

Mobile video traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)

4G data traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)

2014

590.3

47%

1402

0%

149

48%

2%

8%

36%

3%

2019

895.6

67%

65119

15%

1,262

76%

12%

3%

66%

38%

Note: includes only devices connected to the mobile network; excludesdevices connected via Wi-Fi; *excludes low-power wide area (LPWA)machine-to-machine (M2M) connectionsSource: Cisco Systems, "Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI): Global MobileData Traffic Forecast Update, 2014-2019," Feb 3, 2015


The high cost of both 4G-enabled devices and the

service plans to power them has also provided another

impediment to 4G adoption. The uptake of 4G has seen

gradual progress, but in the interim mobile internet users

in India have turned to low-cost and free Wi-Fi as a means

to get online.


10/54


Much like that of the feature phone market, the

smartphone market in India is crowded with competitors.

According to technology market analyst firm Canalys,

Samsung made up the largest share of smartphone units

shipped in Q1 2015 with 26%. Micromax was next with

18%, followed by domestic OEM Intex (8%), Lava (6%)

and Microsoft (4%). Also similarly to the feature phone

market, a mix of other companies made up a significant

portion of shipments, accounting for 37%an indicationof just how fierce competition in India remains.

% of total

Smartphone Shipment Share in India, by Brand,Q1 2015

Samsung26%

Micromax18%

Intex8%

Lava6%

Microsoft4%

Other37%

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to roundingSource: Canalys, May 8, 2015


Chinese smartphone manufacturers, in particular, have

begun making concerted efforts to break into Indias

market as they face slowing adoption rates in their

home market. Some of these OEMS, such as Xiaomi,

have taken pains to localize their products for the Indian

market by adding features like dual-SIM card functionality

to them, thereby allowing users to take advantage

of cheaper plans being offered by competing service

providers on the same smartphone.

In terms of mobile service provider market share, Bharti

Airtel is the market leader with 23.0% of mobile service

subscribers as of December 2014, according to the

Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI). Vodafone

held an 18.9% share, followed by Idea Cellular (16.0%),

Reliance (11.3%), BSNL (8.6%) and Aircel (8.3%). The high

level of competition in India is likely to result in cheaper

service plans for mobile customers down the road, oncetelecoms are able to recoup their investment costs.

% of total

Mobile Service Provider Subscriber Share in India,Dec 2014

Bharti Airtel

23.0%

Vodafone

18.9%

Idea Cellular

16.0%Reliance (RCOM)

11.3%

BSNL

8.6%

Aircel

8.3%

Tata Docomo

7.0%

Telewings

4.6%

Sistema

1.0%

Videocon

0.7%

MTNL

0.4%

Quadrant Televentures

0.3%

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to roundingSource: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) as cited in pressrelease, Feb 6, 2015



Bharti Airtel had 226.0 million subscribers in Q1 2015.

Vodafone had 183.8 million subscribers that quarter, whileIdea Cellular had 157.8 million and Reliance (RCOM) had

110.7 million.

INDONESIAIndonesia bears all of the hallmarks of a mobile-first

nation. Its massive population of about 250 million people

is dispersed over an archipelago consisting of thousands

of islands, presenting a significant challenge to the

buildout of fixed line telecommunications infrastructure.

The rise of mobile has sidestepped that problem, and thefast adoption of mobile devices has proven that Indonesia

is a market filled with people hungry for telephone and

internet services.


11/54


eMarketer projects that the number of mobile phone

users in Indonesia will reach 149.2 million in 2015, giving

the devices a 58.3% penetration rate among the overall

population. That number will climb to 193.4 million by

2019, with the annual growth rate slowing over the

forecast period.

Mobile Phone* and Smartphone** Users in Indonesia,2014-2019


% of population

% change



% change

2014

136.9

54.0%

10.2%

44.7

32.6%

35.0%

2015

149.2

58.3%

9.0%

55.4

37.1%

24.0%

2016

161.4

62.5%

8.2%

65.2

40.4%

17.6%

2017

173.3

66.5%

7.3%

74.9

43.2%

15.0%

2018

184.0

70.0%

6.2%

83.5

45.4%

11.5%

2019

193.4

73.0%

5.1%

92.0

47.6%

10.1%

Note: *individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and usethe phone(s) at least once per month; **individuals of any age who own atleast one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month

Source: eMarketer, July 2015193905 www.eMarketer.com

Smartphone adoption will remain more robust; users of

the devices will number 55.4 million in 2015 and grow to

92.0 million by 2019. The penetration rate of smartphones

among mobile phone users will climb from 37.1% to

47.6% over the same time period. The annual growth

rate of smartphone users will remain in the double digits

through 2019.

The ingress of low-cost devices manufactured by both

domestic and Chinese companies has aided smartphone

uptake in Indonesia, making access to them easier thanever. Chinese search engine Baidu surveyed smartphone

users in Indonesia between September 2014 and October

2014 and found that more than 80% of respondents had

bought their current smartphone for 3,000,000IDR ($253)

or less.

Despite growth in smartphone user numbers, Indonesia

remains a market that is still at least partly wedded to

the feature phone. However, the government is making

efforts to hasten the shift to smartphones. In May 2015,

the Communications and Information Ministry announced

that it would increase the tax levied on 2G-capable

handsets in order to push 4G adoption.

4G networks remain a relatively new addition to

Indonesia; the countrys three largest telecoms rolled

out the faster network in late 2014. That explains why

4G connections did not even register on Cisco Systems

survey of mobile data and device metrics in the country.

However, Cisco estimated that 4G connections would

make up 14% of all mobile connections by 2019, when

4G data traffic would account for 44% of all mobile

data traffic.

Mobile Data and Device Metrics in Indonesia,2014 & 2019

Mobile devices

Mobile device users (millions)

Mobile device user penetration (% of population)

Smartphones in use (millions)

Connected tablets in use (millions)

4G connections (% of total mobile connections)*

Mobile data

Mobile data traffic per user (MB/month)

Smartphone data traffic (% of total)

Tablet data traffic (% of total)

Laptop data traffic (% of total)

Mobile video traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)


2014

155.1

61%

64

1

0%

388

50%

1%

46%

51%

6%

2019

195.3

73%

167

4

14%

3,080

75%

3%

20%

69%

44%



In terms of smartphone OS share, Googles Android

operating system has a solid lead in Indonesia. According

to GlobalWebIndex, 16.5 million mobile internet users

in the country used Android last year, while 6.3 million

used the BlackBerry OS from the eponymously named

company (formerly known as Research in Motion, or

RIM). GlobalWebIndex also reported that 2.5 million

mobile internet users had Apples iOS and 1.8 million used

Windows Phone.

millions

Mobile Internet Users in Indonesia, by SmartphoneOS, 2014

Android 16.5

RIM 6.3

iOS 2.5

Windows1.8

Note: ages 16-64; some individuals own/use more than one handsetSource: GlobalWebIndex as cited in company blog, Nov 24, 2014



12/54


Various lists of the most popular smartphone

manufacturers in Indonesia reflect Androids dominance

OEMs that rely on the open source OS seem to top

all of them. Research firm Counterpoint found that

Samsung accounted for 26.4% of smartphones shipped

in Indonesia during Q4 2014. Indonesian telecom and

handset manufacturer Smartfren came in second,

shipping 15.4% of devices sold under its brand,

followed by domestic firm Evercoss (13.4%), ChinasOppo (8.8%) and homegrown company Advan (7.7.%).

Interestingly, other OEMs accounted for 28.3% of

smartphones shipped during the quarteran indication

of just how competitive the smartphone landscape in

Indonesia remains.

% of total

Smartphone Shipment Share in Indonesia, by Brand,Q4 2014

Samsung 26.4%

Smartfren 15.4%

Evercoss 13.4%

Oppo 8.8%

Advan 7.7%

Other 28.3%

Source: Counterpoint as cited in company blog, Feb 4, 2015


A survey conducted by Baidu in 2014 found that

Samsung had a significant advantage over competitors:

49.7% of mobile internet users in Indonesia used the

brand. BlackBerry followed with a 16.2% share, thenSmartfren (14.4%), Lenovo (7.1%), Oppo (6.4%), Apple

(3.0%), Hisense (1.9%) and Huawei (1.0%). BlackBerrys

prominent place is somewhat misleading, as the

Canadian company has seen a steady decline in its

presence in Indonesia over the past few years.

% of respondents

Smartphone Brand Used by Mobile Internet Users inIndonesia, 2014

Samsung 49.7%

BlackBerry 16.2%

Smartfren 14.4%

Lenovo 7.1%

Oppo 6.4%

Apple3.0%

Hisense1.9%

Huawei1.0%

Source: Baidu survey as cited in The Wall Street Journal, Dec 5, 2014



Telkom Indonesia had 140.6 million subscribers at the

end of 2014, while XL Axiata had 59.6 million and Bakrie

Telecom had 11.6 million subscribers. And as of Q1 2015,

Indosat had 66.5 million subscribers.

JAPANeMarketer estimates that Japans mobile phone user

population will stand at 106.0 million in 2015. Mobile

phone user numbers have hit their effective ceiling in the

country, with penetration rates above 80% and the annua

user growth rate at 1.0% or less through 2019.

Mobile Phone* and Smartphone** Users in Japan,

2014-2019


% of population

% change



% change

2014

104.9

82.6%

1.1%

46.2

44.0%

17.5%

2015

106.0

83.5%

1.0%

51.8

48.9%

12.2%

2016

106.4

84.0%

0.4%

55.8

52.4%

7.7%

2017

106.8

84.5%

0.4%

58.9

55.1%

5.6%

2018

107.1

84.9%

0.2%

60.9

56.9%

3.5%

2019

107.2

85.2%

0.1%

62.6

58.4%

2.8%



The number of smartphone users will see a stronger

annual growth rate through the forecast period.

By eMarketer estimates, there will be 51.8 million

smartphone users in Japan this year, with that figure

growing to 62.6 million by 2019. Like mobile phones,

smartphone user growth will also slow, with the annual

increase falling to just 2.8% by 2019.


13/54


Japan remains something of an aberration, as it

represents a developed market that was comparatively

slow to shift to smartphones, largely due to the

prevalence of advanced feature phones that offered many

of the same functions of a smartphone in a form factor

closer to that of a feature phone. In fact, feature phones

still play an important part of Japans mobile landscape.

According to a March 2015 survey conducted by NTTComResearch, more than half of internet users in Japan

owned just a smartphone. Almost four in 10 owned solely

a feature phone, while about one in 10 owned both.

% of respondents

Primary Type of Mobile Phone Used by Internet Usersin Japan, March 2015

Smartphone only51.5%Feature phone only

38.8%

Both9.7%

Note: n=1,089 ages 10+Source: NTTCom Research (formerly goo Research) and japan.internet.com,"4th Survey on Switch to Smartphones" as cited in press release, March 16,2015


In another survey of internet users in Japan conducted

by JustSystems in April 2015, smartphones made up a

slightly larger proportion of mobile phones, accounting for58.9%, with feature phones and those not using a phone

at all making up the remainder of responses.

% of respondents

Primary Type of Mobile Phone Used by Internet Usersin Japan, June 2014, Dec 2014 & April 2015

Smartphone Feature phone Not using a mobile phone

Note: n=1,100 ages 15-69Source: JustSystems, "Mobile and Social Media Monthly Survey," May 15,2015


June 2014

52.9% 42.6% 4.5%

Dec 2014

52.6% 42.4% 5.0%

April 2015

58.9% 37.2% 3.9%

Those who have bought smartphones display an

attachment to them. January 2015 polling by Rakuten

found that smartphone users in Japan were much more

inclined to make their next mobile phone purchase a

smartphone: More than 40% of mobile phone users

surveyed planned to purchase a smartphone or were

heavily leaning in that direction. Only 6.3% were firmly

committed to replacing their existing feature phone with

another one.

% of respondents

Type of Mobile Phone that Feature Phone vs.Smartphone Users in Japan Plan to Purchase Next,Jan 2015

Feature phone users

9.0% 31.8% 34.8% 18.3%6.3%

Definitely a smartphone

Leaning toward a smartphone

Fine with either

Leaning toward afeature phone

Definitely a feature phone

Note: feature phone users n=400; smartphone users n=400; ages 20-59;numbers may not add up to 100% due to roundingSource: Rakuten as cited in press release, Jan 23, 2015


Smartphone users

56.3% 35.5% 7.3%

0.5%0.5%

The higher costs of purchasing smartphones and their

data packages appear to be dissuading some feature

phone users from trading up. In April 2015 polling

from Lifemedia Research Bank, almost half (49.4%) of

respondents who said they werent interested in using a

smartphone expressed concern about the higher charges

associated with usage, while 30.2% said the devices

themselves were too expensive.


14/54


% of respondents

Reasons that Internet Users in Japan Are NotInterested In Using a Smartphone, April 2015

Satisfied with feature phone

65.3%

Fees associated with usage are too high

49.4%

Smartphones (hardware) are too expensive

30.2%Do not need PC-like functions on mobile phone

29.9%

Battery life is too short

15.3%

Seems difficult to use

10.8%

The phone (hardware) is too big

9.6%

Have no interest in mobile devices in general

9.0%

Have no interest in using apps

8.1%

Other

2.4%

Note: n=334 ages 10-69 who do not use a smartphoneSource: Lifemedia Research Bank survey as cited in press release, April 8,2015


Another idiosyncratic characteristic of the mobile phone

market in Japan is its affinity for Apple devices.

According to data from IDC, the iPhone accounted for

58.7% of smartphones shipped in the country in 2014,

well above the 14.2% share controlled by domestic OEM

Sony. Next was Sharp (11.4%), then Samsung (4.7%) and

Kyocera (4.5%).

% of totalSmartphone Shipment Share in Japan, by Brand, 2014

Apple58.7%

Sony14.2%

Sharp11.4%

Samsung4.7%

Kyocera4.5%

Other6.6%

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to roundingSource: International Data Corporation (IDC) as cited in press release,March 12, 2015


Apples control of the smartphone market understandably

results in the companys iOS found on a sizeable

number of devices in the market. According to Kantar

Worldpanel ComTech, devices running iOS made up

45.1% of smartphones sold in Japan in March 2015, while

Android was on 52.3% of devices sold that month. iOSs

smartphone sales share was a drop from 60.2% recorded

in December 2014, but that figure was likely boosted by

the recent release of Apples popular iPhone 6 and iPhone6 Plus models.

% of total

Smartphone Sales Share in Japan, by OS,Dec 2012-March 2015

Android iOS Other

Dec 2012 32.2% 66.1% 1.7%

June 2013 44.6% 53.7% 1.8%

Dec 2013 30.5% 68.7% 0.8%

June 2014 58.8% 39.5% 1.7%

Dec 2014 38.3% 60.2% 1.5%

March 2015 52.3% 45.1% 2.5%



JustSystems data similarly found that Android held a lead

in the market over iOS, but not by as wide a gap as it

does in many other markets.

% of respondents

Smartphone User Share in Japan, by OS,June 2014, Dec 2014 & April 2015

Android iOS Other

Note: April 2015 n=648 ages 15-69; numbers may not add up to 100% dueto roundingSource: JustSystems, "Mobile and Social Media Monthly Survey," May 15,2015


April 2015

54.3% 44.1% 1.5%

June 2014

54.5% 44.2% 1.4%

Dec 2014

53.4% 46.3% 0.3%

4G connections are already well entrenched in Japan.

According to data from Mobidia and Ovum, there were70.6 million 4G LTE mobile connections in the country at

the end of 2014, with a 47.2% penetration rate among the

overall population.


15/54


Data from Cisco Systems reported that 4G connections

made up a much higher proportion of all mobile

connections, at 43%, and projected that figure would

reach 63% by 2019. Cisco also found that 86% of mobile

traffic in Japan was conducted over 4G networks in

2014, and estimated that 96% of traffic would be on 4G

connections in five years time.

Japan has three major mobile service providersNTTDocomo, au and SoftBank. According to a survey of

smartphone users conducted by JustSystems in April

2015, 37.3% of respondents said they used NTT Docomo,

followed by au (30.6%) and SoftBank (25.2%).

% of respondents

Smartphone User Share in Japan, by Service Provider,April 2015

NTT Docomo37.3%

au30.6%

SoftBank25.2%

Y!mobile3.2%

Other3.7%

Note: n=648 ages 15-69Source: JustSystems, "Mobile and Social Media Monthly Survey," May 15,2015


According to company filings, NTT Docomo had

66.6 million subscribers as of Q1 2015, while au had43.5 million and SoftBank had 37.8 million.

SOUTH KOREAThe mobile phone market in South Korea is about as close

to saturation as it can get. The country is well-known

for its affinity for mobile devices, especially the phablet

form factor, which lands somewhere between a

smartphone and a tablet in terms of screen size but

allows for cellular service. eMarketer estimates that there

will be 40.8 million mobile phone users in South Koreain 2015, reaching 83.0% of the overall population. The

number of mobile phone users will increase only slightly

to 41.9 million by 2019, when the penetration rate will

reach 84.9%.

Mobile Phone* and Smartphone** Users in SouthKorea, 2014-2019


% of population

% change



% change

2014

40.5

82.6%

0.8%

32.2

79.5%

11.9%

2015

40.8

83.0%

0.7%

33.6

82.3%

4.3%

2016

41.1

83.5%

0.7%

34.6

84.3%

3.1%

2017

41.4

84.0%

0.7%

35.6

86.0%

2.7%

2018

41.6

84.5%

0.7%

36.5

87.6%

2.6%

2019

41.9

84.9%

0.6%

37.0

88.4%

1.5%



Smartphone adoption in South Korea has been fast and

is now nearing totalitygrowing just 4.3% in 2015, down

from 11.9% the previous yearindicating that adoption

of the devices is slowing. This year, smartphone users

will total 33.6 million, growing to 37.0 million in 2019,

when they will make up 88.4% of mobile phone users inthe country.

Time spent with smartphones in South Korea is already

high. A survey conducted by the Korea Internet &

Security Agency (KISA) found that 72% of smartphone

users in the country spent at least 2 hours per day on

their devices in 2014.

% of respondents

Daily Time Spent Using Smartphones AmongSmartphone Users in South Korea, 2014


16/54


Mobile Data and Device Metrics in South Korea,2014 & 2019

2014 2019

Mobile devices

Mobile device users (millions) 45.7

Mobile device user penetration (% of population) 90%

Smartphones in use (millions) 48

Connected tablets in use (millions) 3

4G connections (% of total mobile connections)* 52%Mobile data

Mobile data traffic per user (MB/month) 13,055

Smartphone data traffic (% of total) 76%

Tablet data traffic (% of total) 13%

Laptop data traffic (% of total) 1%

Mobile video traffic (% of total mobile data traffic) 75%


43.8

88%

39

1

50%

2,505

87%

5%

2%

59%

89% 96%



South Korea also made waves in 2014 when itannounced its intent to develop the next generation

of mobile broadband technology: 5G. However, price

wars among wireless telecoms competing for users

have left companies lacking the deep pockets needed to

develop and build out the new technologies 5G networks

would require.

Unsurprisingly, a survey conducted by Gallup Korea in

August 2014 found that the Samsung Galaxy was the

most widely adopted device brand among smartphone

users in South Korea, used by 58% of respondents.

More than 21% used the LG G2, Gplex and Optimus

models, while 10% used Apples iPhone and 7% used the

Pantech Vega.

% of respondents in each group

Smartphone Brand Used by Smartphone Users inSouth Korea, by Demographic, Aug 2014

Gender

Male

Female

Age

19-29

30-39

40-49

50-59

60+

Total

SamsungGalaxy S/

Note

60%

56%

53%

55%

58%

63%

66%

58%

LG G2/GPlex/

Optimus

19%

23%

24%

21%

17%

21%

18%

21%

iPhone

11%

9%

15%

16%

8%

5%

3%

10%

PantechVega

5%

8%

7%

4%

12%

5%

2%

7%

Other

1%

2%

1%

1%

2%

3%

0%

1%

Don'tknow/

declinedto answer

4%

3%

1%

2%

4%

3%

11%

3%

Note: n=792; read as saying that 11% of male smartphone users use aniPhone; numbers may not add up to 100% due to roundingSource: Gallup Korea, "Gallup Korea Daily Opinion - Survey on SmartphoneUsage"; eMarketer calculations, Aug 27, 2014


However, Counterpoint Research found that Apple had

made substantial gains in the South Korean smartphone

market following the release of the iPhone 6 and the

iPhone 6 Plus models in fall 2014. According to the

early 2015 blog post, Apple accounted for one-third of

smartphone sales in November 2014, while 46% of

smartphone sales went to Samsung in the same month.

According to company filings, mobile service provider SK

Telecom had 28.4 million subscribers as of Q1 2015. KT

had 18.2 million subscribers that quarter, while LG U+ had

11.4 million.

SOUTHEAST ASIA

Hong KongData for Hong Kong indicates that the market for mobile

phones is becoming saturated. The penetration rate of

mobile devices among Hong Kongs population will reach

82.6% in 2015 and 84.4% by the end of the forecast

period, making it one of the most highly penetrated

markets tracked by eMarketer. We estimate that mobile

phone user growth will be slow, at 1.6% in 2015, givingthe region a total of 5.9 million mobile phone users. That

rate is expected to slow to just 0.7% by 2019, when the

region will have 6.1 million mobile phone users.


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eMarketer forecasts that 66.6% of Hong Kongs

population will be smartphone users in 2015, with that

figure expected to grow to 74.5% by 2019. The number

of smartphone users will reach 4.8 million people in

2015, a 7.1% increase over the previous year. By 2019,

smartphone users will number 5.4 million.

According to Hong Kongs telecom regulator the Office

of the Communications Authority (OFCA), Hong Konghad 16.7 million mobile connections as of April 2015. The

number of mobile connections is so high because Hong

Kong is a market in which mobile phone users often

employ multiple SIM cards to quickly take advantage

of discounts offered by competing carriers. OFCA also

reported that there were 7.3 million 3G customers and

4.9 million 4G customers in Hong Kong as of March 2015.

MalaysiaIn 2015, Malaysia will have 21.7 million mobile phone

users, eMarketer estimates, giving the devices a 71.0%penetration rate among the overall population. However,

the mobile phone adoption growth rate is slowing and will

decline from 4.2% in 2015 to 1.7% in 2019.

Smartphone users in Malaysia will number 10.1 million

this year, a 14.0% growth over 2014. By 2019, there will

be 13.7 million smartphone users in the country, with the

devices achieving a 57.3% penetration rate among mobile

phone users.

Research firm Gfk reported that 8.5 million smartphone

units were sold in Malaysia in 2014, with the smartphone

segment priced between $150 and $200 increasing its

volume share from 10% of the overall market in 2013

to 16% in 2014. The popularity of cheap smartphones

was also highlighted by Gfks data, which found that the

average price of smartphones sold in Malaysia fell to $315

in 2014, from $351 the previous year.

According to research from the IDC, Samsung

controlled the largest slice of the smartphone market

in Malaysia in Q4 2014. Samsung devices constituted

30% of smartphones shipped that quarter, followed by

Lenovo (17%), Asus (9%), Oppo (7%) and Apple (7%).

IDC expects both Taiwanese- and Chinese-produced

smartphones will make inroads in Malaysia this year,

gaining market share against both domestic OEMs and

Korean manufacturer Samsung. Sales of Apple devices,

meanwhile, are hamstrung by their high price point.

With Apple devices relatively unpopular in Malaysia, it

makes sense that Googles Android OS has a stronger

presence in the country. Mobile ad network InMobi found

that 80.4% of its ad impressions on mobile devices

during Q4 2014 were made on smartphones running

Android. Only 15.2% were on devices running iOS.

PhilippinesIn 2015, 65.3% of the population in the Philippines willuse mobile phones regularly, eMarketer estimates, giving

the devices a user base of 71.6 million people. Mobile

phone user growth will be 5.2% this year and decline to

2.3% by 2019.

Smartphone user growth in the country will be

significantly higher, reaching 20.2% in 2015, totaling

26.2 million smartphone users23.9% of the overall

population. By 2019, 39.2 million people in the Philippines

or 33.4% of its population, will own a smartphone.

The Philippines is a market where mobile phone users

are squarely in the middle of the transition from feature

phones to smartphones. According to the IDC, 47% of

mobile phones shipped in the country last year were

smartphones. IDC also reported that the number of

smartphones shipped exceeded the number of feature

phones shipped for the first time in Q3 2014. IDC credited

part of the rise of smartphones to declining prices that

often made them only marginally more expensive than

feature phones.

Local smartphone manufacturers have used marketing

and low prices to command a sizable share of the market

in the Philippines. IDC found that Filipino smartphone

manufacturers controlled the largest share of smartphone

shipments in 2014, accounting for 21.9% of them.

Samsung was second with 13.3%, then domestic

OEM MyPhone (11.2%), Chinas Lenovo (6.5%) and

homegrown Torque (4.8%).

The mobile service provider market in the Philippines

is an effective duopoly ruled by the Philippine Long

Distance Telephone Company (PLDT) and Globe Telecom.

According to company filings, PLDT had 69.6 million

cellular service subscribers at the end of Q1 2015, while

Globe had 41.6 million.


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SingaporeeMarketer estimates there will be 4.7 million mobile

phone users in Singapore in 2015, giving the devices

an 82.8% penetration rate. By 2019, there will be

5.2 million mobile phone users, with the penetration

rate reaching 84.4%.

Smartphones are already well entrenched in Singapore,which is a highly developed market. eMarketer estimates

that 70.5% of the overall population4.0 million people

will use such a device in 2015. The smartphone user

growth rate will be just 5.7%% this year, a sign that the

market for the devices is maturing. By the end of the

forecast period, there will be 4.6 million smartphone

users, for a penetration rate of 75.0% among the

overall population.

According to BuddeComm, 3G and 4G networks are

already well entrenched in Singapore: More than 95%

of mobile connections operated on one of these fasternetworks as of early 2014. Singapore was also the first

country to launch a 4G LTE-Advanced (LTE-A) mobile

network in May 2014 that allowed download speeds of up

to 300 megabits per second.

BlackBerry remains a relatively strong player in Singapore.

According to Q1 2015 data from mobile network InMobi,

29.2% of ad impressions through its network were made

on devices running BlackBerrys OS. Android was the

top OS on InMobis network, with 43.1% of impressions

taking place on its operating system and Apples iOS

drawing 26.6% of impressions.

ThailandeMarketer estimates that there will be 45.6 million

mobile phone users in Thailand in 2015, with that

number increasing to 49.5 million by 2019. The mobile

phone penetration rate among the countrys population

will reach 67.0% in 2015, but user growth will be low at

3.4%. By the end of the forecast period, there will be

49.5 million mobile phone users, giving the devices a

72.0% penetration rate.

The smartphone user base is growing rapidly from a

fairly modest start point. Thailand will have 17.9 million

smartphone users in 2015, an increase of 16.2% over

the previous year. Smartphone penetration will be

relatively low at 26.3%. However, by 2019 there will be

24.8 million smartphone users in Thailand, a penetration

rate equal to 36.0%.

Android appears to have the upper hand in Thailand.

According to Q4 2014 data from InMobi, 65.5% of ad

impressions on the network were made on devices

running Googles Android OS. In comparison, 31.3% of

impressions were on devices running Apples iOS, while

just 1.9% were on those running Windows Phone.

The April 2015 GSMA report, Building Thailands Digital

Economy, citing data from Analysys Mason, found thatthe penetration of mobile broadband networks in Thailand

was closer to that found in developed Asia-Pacific

countries than in emerging countries in the region.

However, 4G networks remained limited to large urban

areas, and plans to allocate additional spectrum for 4G

networks were delayed following the ouster of the ruling

government in May 2014.

GSMA also reported that three mobile service providers

dominated Thailands marketAdvanced Info Service

(AIS), Digital Total Access Communication (DTAC) and

True Corp. GSMA found that AIS had a 45.6% share ofmobile connections, followed by DTAC (28.9%) and True

Corp. (24.3%).

VietnameMarketer estimates that there will be 57.1 million mobile

phone users in Vietnam in 2015, giving the devices a

60.5% penetration rate. Mobile phone user growth in

the country is expected to slow, hitting 4.4% in 2015 but

falling to 2.6% by 2019, the end of the forecast period. By

that time there will be 64.5 million mobile phone users in

the country, for a penetration rate equal to 65.9%.

Smartphone users in Vietnam will number 20.7 million

in 2015, but their ranks will swell to 35.2 million by

2019. Smartphone user growth will be substantially

sharp throughout the forecast period, at 24.3% in 2015,

and remain in the double digits through 2019 when it

will be 10.1%. During that same time, the smartphone

penetration rate will increase from 21.9% to 36.0%.

There are other signs that smartphone uptake in Vietnam

is continuing apace. The IDC reported that 11.6 million

smartphone units shipped in Vietnam in 2014, a 57%

year-over-year increase. IDC credited the robust growth to

the sharp drop in the prices of smartphones in Vietnam,

reporting that 60% of smartphones shipped that year cos

$150 or less.


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According to the IDC, Samsung remained the largest

smartphone vendor in Vietnam in 2014, responsible for

26% of devices shipped that year, down from 38% the

previous year. Microsoft saw its share of shipments

grow substantially, increasing from 16% in 2013 to 24%

in 2014. Oppo was responsible for 8% of smartphones

shipped, followed by Asus (6%) and Viettel (4%). But in

a sign of how fractured the smartphone market remains

in Vietnam, other vendors accounted for one-third ofshipments in the country.

However, Vietnam remains a market lacking 4G

networks. The countrys Ministry of Information and

Communications (MIC) announced in March 2015 that

it would officially launch 4G networks for commercial

purposes in Vietnam in 2016.

EUROPE

Western Europes mobile phone landscape is

advanced, with penetration rates close to saturation

in many markets. However, countries in the region

vary in regards to both mobile phone internet usage

and smartphone adoption.

eMarketer estimates that there will be 334.5 million

mobile phone users in Western Europe this year, with

the largest portion residing in Germany. By 2019, these

users will number 347.4 million, when 82.0% of Western

Europes population will use mobile phones, up from

80.1% in 2015.


Mobile Phone Users and Penetration in WesternEurope, by Country, 2013-2019

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Germany 64.1 64.9 65.6 66.1 66.4 66.6 66.7

UK 50.4 51.2 52.0 52.8 53.5 54.2 54.9

Italy 47.9 48.7 49.4 50.1 50.7 51.3 51.7

France 47.3 48.3 49.2 50.1 50.6 51.0 51.4

Spain 38.7 39.1 39.6 40.0 40.4 40.8 41.2

Netherlands 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.3

Sweden 7.6 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4

Switzerland 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0

Denmark 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9

Finland 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6

Norway 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7

Ireland 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2Other 31.9 3 2.3 3 2.6 32.9 33.1 33.3 33.4

Western Europe 324.9 330.0 334.5 338.5 341.9 344.8 347.4


Norway 86.9% 87.0% 87.1% 87.2% 87.2% 87.2% 87.3%

Finland 85.9% 86.0% 86.2% 86.4% 86.5% 86.7% 86.9%

Denmark 82.6% 83.5% 84.3% 85.0% 85.7% 86.3% 86.8%

Spain 81.6% 82.0% 82.2% 82.4% 82.6% 82.8% 83.0%

Ir eland 80.5% 81.1% 81.5% 81.9% 82.2% 82.4% 82.6%

Switzerland 79.5% 80.5% 81.3% 82.0% 82.5% 83.0% 83.5%

Germany 79.0% 80.2% 81.1% 81.8% 82.3% 82.7% 82.9%

Netherlands 79.0% 80.1% 80.9% 81.6% 82.2% 82.6% 83.0%

Sweden 79.0% 80.1% 80.9% 81.6% 82.1% 82.4% 82.6%

Italy 77.9% 78.9% 79.9% 80.7% 81.6% 82.4% 82.9%

UK 78.6% 79.2% 79.8% 80.4% 80.8% 81.2% 81.5%

France 74.9% 76.1% 77.3% 78.2% 78.7% 79.1% 79.4%

Other 75.9% 76.8% 77.5% 78.0% 78.6% 79.0% 79.3%

Western Europe 78.4% 79.3% 80.1% 80.7% 81.2% 81.7% 82.0%

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and usethe phone(s) at least once per month; numbers may not add up to totaldue to roundingSource: eMarketer, April 2015; confirmed and republished, July 2015



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The IDC reported that there are clear signs of saturation

for the mobile phone market in Western Europe, finding

that shipments of the devices declined by 5.2% year

over year in 2014, totaling 174.1 million units. Feature

phone shipments dropped by 39% during that time, while

smartphone shipments were up by 6.4%.

The mobile phone market in Central and Eastern Europe,

meanwhile, will trail that of Western Europe, with mobilephone user penetration rates reaching 69.1% of the

population for 2015 and increasing to 72.6% by 2019,

eMarketer estimates.


Mobile Phone Users and Penetration in Central &Eastern Europe, by Country, 2013-2019


Russia

Turkey

Poland

Czech Republic

Other

Central &Eastern Europe


Turkey

Poland

Czech Republic

Russia

Other

Central &Eastern Europe

2013

98.4

55.9

25.8

7.4

96.0

283.5

69.2%

67.2%

70.2%

69.1%

60.7%

65.9%

2014

100.3

57.8

26.7

7.5

98.4

290.7

70.8%

69.5%

71.0%

70.4%

62.4%

67.5%

2015

101.8

60.0

27.7

7.6

100.9

297.9

72.7%

72.3%

71.7%

71.5%

64.1%

69.1%

2016

102.7

61.8

28.2

7.7

103.0

303.4

74.1%

73.7%

72.3%

72.2%

65.6%

70.3%

2017

103.3

63.2

28.5

7.8

105.3

308.0

75.0%

74.6%

72.7%

72.6%

67.2%

71.3%

2018

103.6

64.3

28.8

7.8

107.1

311.5

75.5%

75.5%

72.9%

72.9%

68.5%

72.0%

2019

103.8

65.1

28.9

7.8

108.5

314.2

75.7%

76.1%

72.9%

73.1%

69.6%

72.6%

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and usethe phone(s) at least once per month; numbers may not add up to totaldue to roundingSource: eMarketer, April 2015; confirmed and republished, July 2015


The rise of 4G networks in the region will facilitate

data-intensive behaviors in European markets. In the

Mobile Economy: Europe 2014 report, GSMA projected

that 4G LTE connections in Europe would increase

from 3% of total mobile connections at the end of 2013

to 53% by 2020. Most operators have found that an

increase in mobile data usage correlates to the availability

of faster mobile networks.

As a highly fragmented market, Europe is also facing a

wave of consolidation in the telecom sector as revenue

growth begins to flat-line, with no new customers left to

sign up for service plans.

DENMARKeMarketer estimates that the number of mobile phone

users in Denmark will hit 4.7 million in 2015. As with

the other Nordic countries, Denmark is a highly mature

mobile phone market nearing its saturation point. In fact,

with an 84.3% penetration rate in 2015, Denmark trails

only two other countries in Western EuropeNorway

and Finlandby that metric. By 2019, mobile phoneuser penetration in Denmark will increase only a few

percentage points to 86.8%.

Denmarks growth in mobile internet users, meanwhile,

will be stronger over eMarketers forecast period, hitting

14.6% in 2015 and then declining to 1.5% in 2019.

The relatively strong user growth rate can be attributed

to smartphone uptake in the country. In 2015, a projected

3.7 million individuals, or 67.1% of Denmarks population,

will use smartphones regularly. By 2019, there figures will

increase to 4.7 million and 82.8%.


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millions and % of mobile phone users

Smartphone Users and Penetration in WesternEurope, by Country, 2014-2019

Smartphone users (millions)

Germany

UK

France

Italy

Spain

Netherlands

Sweden

Switzerland

Denmark

Norway

Ireland

Finland

Other

Western Europe

Smartphone user penetration (% of mobile phone users)

Denmark

NorwaySweden

Netherlands

Ireland

UK

Switzerland

Germany

Spain

Finland

France

Italy

Other

Western Europe

2014

36.4

35.1

25.4

23.8

22.0

8.8

5.4

4.3

3.2

3.1

2.7

2.5

16.8

189.5

69.8%

68.4%69.0%

64.8%

69.5%

68.6%

65.8%

56.0%

56.3%

55.0%

52.5%

48.9%

52.0%

57.4%

2015

42.3

38.3

29.8

28.1

25.0

10.4

6.0

4.8

3.7

3.5

3.0

2.9

20.1

218.0

79.6%

76.5%76.0%

75.9%

74.2%

73.6%

73.2%

64.4%

63.2%

62.9%

60.6%

57.0%

61.7%

65.2%

2016

47.4

41.4

33.5

30.9

26.9

11.7

6.6

5.3

4.1

3.9

3.2

3.1

22.3

240.3

85.8%

84.8%82.0%

84.5%

78.8%

78.3%

79.5%

71.7%

67.2%

69.0%

66.9%

61.8%

67.9%

71.0%

2017

51.3

44.0

36.8

32.9

28.4

12.4

7.2

5.8

4.4

4.1

3.4

3.4

24.0

258.1

90.9%

89.4%87.7%

88.5%

82.4%

82.2%

86.1%

77.3%

70.2%

74.5%

72.7%

64.9%

72.5%

75.5%

2018

54.1

45.7

39.1

34.8

29.5

13.1

7.6

6.2

4.5

4.3

3.5

3.6

25.1

271.2

93.7%

91.3%92.2%

92.5%

84.3%

84.3%

90.0%

81.3%

72.3%

79.4%

76.6%

67.9%

75.5%

78.6%

2019

55.5

46.8

41.0

35.4

30.5

13.6

7.9

6.4

4.7

4.4

3.6

3.8

26.0

279.6

95.4%

92.8%95.0%

95.0%

85.6%

85.4%

92.5%

83.1%

74.0%

82.2%

79.8%

68.5%

77.7%

80.5%

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use thesmartphone(s) at least once per monthSource: eMarketer, July 2015


Denmark has its own way of describing the various

mobile broadband options available to its users; mobile

phone users typically purchase voice and data packages

separately. According to data from the Danish Business

Authority, mobile broadband in Denmark is defined

as access to the internet via a mobile phone, laptop

or tablet with a download speed of 256 kilobits per

second. A standard subscription consists of a mobile

broadband subscription that includes voice, data andSMS/MMS. An add-on data subscription consists of a

data subscription with a fixed amount of data at a fixed

maximum download speed. As the name implies, this

subscription is purchased separately and added to a voice

package. Finally, a dedicated mobile data subscription

is not intended for mobile phones but for use with mobile

internet devices like dongles.

According to the Danish Business Authority, the number

of standard subscriptions in the country rose 21.0%

between H2 2013 and H2 2014 to reach 4.1 million.

Add-on data subscriptions saw slower growth, increasing

only 0.4% over that time to 1.2 million. The growth rate for

dedicated mobile data subscriptions was higher, hitting

4.9%, for a total of 1.2 million subscriptions.

millions and % change

Mobile Broadband Subscriptions in Denmark, by Type,H2 2013 & H2 2014

H2 2013 H2 2014 % change

Standard subscriptions 3.4 4.1 21.0%

Add-on data subscriptions 1.2 1.2 0.4%

Dedicated mobile data subscriptions 1.1 1.2 4.9%

Total 5.7 6.5 13.6%

Note: as of the end of each periodSource: Danish Business Authority, "Telestatistik Andet Halvr 2014," May29, 2015


The Danish Business Authority also released figures that

provided a breakdown of prepaid vs. postpaid mobile

connections and found that only 871,000 of 7.1 million

connections were prepaid in H2 2014.

thousands, % change and % of population

Mobile Connections and Penetration in Denmark, byType, H2 2013 & H2 2014

H2 2013 H2 2014 % change

Mobile phone 7,031 7,100 1.0%

Prepaid 868 871 0.4%

Dedicated mobile data 1,109 1,163 4.9%

Total mobile subscriptions 8,140 8,263 1.5%

% of population 143.8% 146.0% 1.5%

Note: as of the end of each period; numbers may not add up to total due toroundingSource: Danish Business Authority, "Telestatistik Andet Halvr 2014," May29, 2015


According to data from International Data Corporation

Nordic (IDC Nordic), Apple sold the most smartphones

in Denmark in Q1 2015, making up 45% of the market.

Samsung took a 36% share, followed by Sony (8%), LG

Electronics (4%) and Nokia- or Microsoft-branded phones

(3%). Despite the fact that Samsung offers devices at a

higher number of price points than Apple, including thelower-end devices, Apple sales were still stronger, most

likely due to the fall 2014 release of its iPhone 6 and

iPhone 6 Plus models in Denmark.


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% of total

Smartphone Sales Share in Denmark, by Brand,Q1 2015

Apple45%

Samsung36%

Sony 8%

LG 4%

Nokia/Microsoft3%

Other4%

Source: International Data Corporation Nordic (IDC Nordic) as cited byBerlingske Business, May 28, 2015


Data from Danske Medier (IAB Denmark) found that 47%

of smartphone owners had an Apple device as of May

2015. Samsung was the next-most-popular brand, owned

by 24% of smartphone owners, followed by Sony (8%),

Nokia (7%) and HTC (6%).

% of total

Smartphone Owner Share in Denmark, by Brand,May 2015

Apple 47%

Samsung 24%

Sony 8%

Nokia 7%

HTC 6%

LG2%

Huawei2%

Other3%

Note: ages 15-75; numbers may not add up to 100% due to roundingSource: Danske Medier (IAB Denmark) and Kreativitet & Kommunikation,"Mobile Devices 2015" conducted by TNS Gallup Denmark as cited in pressrelease, June 11, 2015


In terms of carriers, there are four major players in

Denmark: TDC, Telenor, Telia and Hi3G Denmark.

According to H2 2014 data from the Danish Business

Authority, TDC held 37.8% of the market, followed by

Telenor (23.6%), Telia (17.5%) and Hi3G

EMarketer Global Mobile Landscape 2015

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