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Chris Bidwells* answers to Miranda Kennedys questions

1) In your opinion, what were the long term impacts of the Treaty on theNonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)?

The NPT has been around for over 35 years. In 1962 President Kennedy was shown a NationalIntelligence Estimate (NIE) indicating that at least 21 new countries where in various stages ofaccruing The Bomb with the prognosis being for more to come. Thus the need for mechanism tolimit the spread of nuclear weapons was pressing. A few years later the NPT was signed andcame into being. Since then, only 5 new countries [Pakistan, India, South Africa (laterdismantled), Israel and North Korea] have joined what is colloquially known as the nuclearclub . This is a pretty good record all things considered.

The NPT represents a Grand Bargain between nation states. Because of the transparency of provided through the NPTs main enforcement mechanism, the International Atomic Energy

Association (IAEA), most countries have insight into their neighbors peaceful nuclear power programs. Continued surveillance and inspections by the IAEA ensures countries that theirneighbors are not engaging in, or hiding, nuclear weapons development. This arrangementeffectively limits the number of outliers (violators), such as Iran and North Korea, that need to bemore heavily scrutinized and sanctioned.

2) Regarding one of the 3 pillars of the NPT, do you think it is possible for the world toachieve complete disarmament?

No. As long as the knowledge of how to build them exists most countries that possess them will

continue to do so, albeit with smaller numbers. The good news here being that most of the Nuclear Weapon s States (NWS) have shrunk their stockpiles keeping just enough to act as aninsurance policy, or weapon of last resort. While perhaps not as desirable as disarmament thisdevelopment reduces the likelihood that they will ever be used.

3) Why haven't all of the countries in the world signed the Treaty ?

Countries decide to join or not join for a whole host of reasons related to their own sense of theirsecurity needs. In many cases, such as Pakistan and India, their neighbors or enemies have them.In other cases enemy neighbors may have a pact with another powerful nation (like the U.S) that

possess NWs and is responsible for guaranteeing that nations security. An example of thiswould be found in the relationship of North Korea and its neighbors South Korea and Japan.

4) Did the NPT improve relations between the U.S. and the Treaty's signatories? Did itmake relations worse between the U.S. and non-signatories? If so, how

The NPT has improved the signatories relations with the U.S. in most cases. One of the mainreasons why is that the U.S. expends its leadership capacity, diplomatic capital and in some cases

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military might, in enforcing the first two pillars of the NPT across the globe. The NPT is aneconomi c bargain for many signatories in that they dont have to invest in expensive nuclearinfrastructures to ensure their nations security. The Grand Bargain makes this possible and mostnations realize that the U.S. is one of the main guarantors of the NPT Grand Bargain. The factthat the agreement has generally held together for so many years is a testament to how seriouslyother nations have interpreted the United States heavy investment in the NPTs success.

*Note: the options expressed here are that of the author and do not reflect the policies og the Federation of American Scientists orthe authors former employers.