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![Page 1: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators
of Biodiversity
Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Denis WhiteU.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Lawrence MasterNatureServe, Boston, Massachusetts USA
![Page 2: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Overview
1. What surrogates are and why we use them
2. A comparison of surrogate group performance in two regions
3. An investigation of four potential explanations of surrogate group performance
![Page 3: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Selecting Areas to Protect Biodiversity
• Maximize the representation of biodiversity
• Provide for viable populations and functioning ecosystems
![Page 4: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Surrogates of Biodiversity
• Lack of data requires shortcuts
…successful shortcuts
![Page 5: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Surrogates of Biodiversity
• Indicators
• Focal species
• Umbrellas
• Keystones
![Page 6: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Testing Surrogates
• Correlations
• Hotspot Overlap
• Complementarity 020406080
100120140160
0 10 20 30 40
Amphibian species richness
Bird
spe
cies
rich
ness
![Page 7: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Why do results differ?
• Types of tests are often different
• Different surrogate groups are tested
• Studies are conducted at different scales
• Location
![Page 8: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
How do surrogates work?
![Page 9: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Study regions
![Page 10: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Data: sampling grid
~650 km2
![Page 11: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Species Occurrence Data
Compiled by The Nature Conservancy and Natural Heritage Programs.
Species Taxon East West
Fish 251 79
Birds 208 267
Butterflies 150 172
Mussels 93 6
Amphibians 78 34
Mammals 76 142
Reptiles 64 29
![Page 12: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Site Selection
Stochastic optimization:
simulated annealing
![Page 13: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
A Comparison of Surrogate Performance
Is there consistency in the performance of surrogate groups across regions ?
![Page 14: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
East vs. West%
Non
-sur
roga
te g
roup
spe
cies
cov
ered
Surrogate group
EastWest
0102030405060708090
100
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Conclusions
• Amphibians, reptiles, and mussels are better surrogates in the east.
• Mammals, birds, and butterflies are better surrogates in the west.
• Fish and rare species are the best surrogates in both regions
![Page 16: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Why?
![Page 17: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
How do surrogates work?Or
What makes a good surrogate?
• They represent biodiversity hotspots
• They are taxonomically diverse
• They are rare
• They (as a group) inhabit diverse environments
![Page 18: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Analysis of 100 groups of surrogates
• randomly selected 100 sets of 20 species from a pool of 920 species
• Selected sets of sites to include all species in each set at least one time
• compared performance of each group to group attributes including:
- hotspot overlap- taxonomic diversity- mean range size- environmental diversity
![Page 19: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Performance of randomly selected surrogates
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
% Coverage
Freq
uenc
y
![Page 20: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Hotspots
404550556065707580
3 4 5 6 7 8
% overlap with richness hotspots
% C
over
age
![Page 21: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Taxonomic diversity
404550556065707580
4 5 6 7 8404550556065707580
2 7 12 17
% C
over
age
Classes Orders
Families
Genera
404550556065707580
8 13 18404550556065707580
14 16 18 20 22
%
Cove
rage
![Page 22: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Range size
Maximum range diameter (km)
404550556065707580
300 400 500 600 700
% C
over
age
![Page 23: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Environmental diversity
404550556065707580
0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Land-cover dissimilarity
% C
over
age
![Page 24: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Comparison of random surrogates to the best surrogates
• randomly selected 100 sets of 20 species from the pool of 920 species
• optimally selected 100 of the “best” groups of surrogates
• Selected sets of sites to include all species in each set at least one time
• compared the two groups with respect to:- hotspot overlap- taxonomic diversity- mean range size- environmental diversity
![Page 25: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Performance of randomly selected and optimally selected surrogates
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
% Coverage
Freq
uenc
y
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
RandomBest
![Page 26: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Comparison of randomly selected and optimally selected surrogates
Attribute Random Best
Hotspot overlap (%) 6.0 (0.8) 4.7 (0.7)Taxonomic diversity: classes 6.4 (0.7) 6.3 (0.7) orders 11.0 (1.7) 11.6 (1.5) families 15.0 (1.8) 14.6 (1.9) genera 19.0 (1.1) 19.0 (1.1)Range diameter (km) 539 (68) 313 (59)Environmental dissimilarity 0.46 (0.05) 0.60 (0.03)
![Page 27: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
The simple answer
Number of sites (total area)
% C
over
age
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
![Page 28: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
The simple answer
Range size
Environmental diversity
Number of sites
Performance
![Page 29: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Controlling for number of sites:Performance
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
% Coverage
Freq
uenc
y
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
RandomBest
![Page 30: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Controlling for number of sites:Range Sizes
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Ma x
imu m
rang
e di
a met
er
(km
)
Random
Best
![Page 31: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Conclusions
• For relatively simple reasons good surrogate groups contain rare species that together occupy diverse environments.
• Neither taxonomic diversity nor hotspot representation appear to be key attributes of successful surrogates.
• Further research needs to be done to get to the root of surrogate performance
![Page 32: Elucidating The Mechanisms Behind Successful Indicators of Biodiversity Joshua Lawler National Research Council / U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051717/5a4d1b637f8b9ab0599ae8f1/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Acknowledgements
Pilar Hernandez, Roly Russell, Anne Guerry, John Van Sickle, National Research Council
(NRC), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Betsy Smith and EPA’s Regional
Vulnerability Assessment Program (ReVA)