ELEMENTS FOR THE BIENNIAL REVIEW AND ... FOR THE BIENNIAL REVIEW AND ASSESSMENT OF THE WORLD TIMBER...
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Transcript of ELEMENTS FOR THE BIENNIAL REVIEW AND ... FOR THE BIENNIAL REVIEW AND ASSESSMENT OF THE WORLD TIMBER...
Contentq JointForestSectorQues0onnaire
2015-2016§ Responses,dataquality,
developmentsq Tropicalwoodproductsproduc0onand
trade§ Primarywoodproducts
q Globalmarkettrendsanddrivers§ Marketrisksanduncertain0es
Dataresponses
Intotal,43outof72ITTOmembercountriesreturnedthe2016ques0onnaire,eitherfullyorpar0allycompleted:
28consumercountries(75%);9JFSQsmissing
15producercountries(42%);20JFSQsmissing.
Wehavefullinforma0on(produc0on,trade,direc0onsoftrade,secondarytrade,2016es0mates,tradeintropicalspecies,forestsectorques0onnaire)foronly10countries
DataQualityProduc0ondataisdifficulttocollect(%ofdatapoints)
1990-2016 2012-2016
Ques0onnaire,PartnerOrganiza0ons,officialpublica0ons
52% 42%
Es0mated 33% 15%
Repeated 15% 43%
Tradedataiseasiertocollect(%ofdatapoints)1990-2016 2012-2016
Ques0onnaire,PartnerOrganiza0ons,UNCOMTRADE,WTA
62% 55%
Es0mated(e.g.convertedfromweighttom3)
36% 34%
Repeated 2% 11%
Databasedevelopmentsq UpgradeofSPWPdatabasepla`orm
q Morecomprehensivecross-referencingandcleaningofdata
q Extendedinforma0ononSPWPsq Pricetrendsforprimarywoodproducts;
priceindicesq Reviewofconversionfactors
Conversionfactorsq Standardiseddataisrequiredforaggrega0onsand
comparisonsq Currentconversionfactorsmaybeinaccurategiven
changesintechnologyandwoodresourceq Tradedataavailableisobennotstandardisedand
requiresunitconversion(e.g.weighttovolume)q ITTOpar0cularlyrequiresmoreup-to-datecountry
es0matesof(1)weighttovolume(kg/m3)forlogs,sawnwood,veneerandplywoodand(2)averageconversionefficiencies(m3RWE/m3productoutput)forsawnwood,veneerandplywoodproducers
q ITTO/FAO/UNECEques0onnaireonconversionfactors
ProducFonoftropicalindustrialroundwood(logs)
TropicallogproducFon,ITTOproducerregions
TropicallogproducFon,majorITTOproducers
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Volume(m
illionm
3 )
Malaysia Indonesia MyanmarThailand VietNam BrazilIndia Nigeria Restofworld
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Volume(m
illionm
3 )
Africa Asia-Pacific LaFnAmerica/Caribbean
Majorexportersoftropicallogs
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000Vo
lume(1000m
3 )
Malaysia PNG MyanmarR.ofCongo Cameroon MozambiqueSolomonIs. Restofworld(ITTO)
Majorimportersoftropicallogs
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000Vo
lume(1000m
3 )
China India VietNamTaiwanPOC Japan EU-28Restofworld(ITTO)
ChinaandIndia:Importsoftropicallogs,2000-2015
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Volume(1,000m
3 )
Ghana Malaysia MyanmarPNG SolomonIs.
China:Tropicallogimports India:Tropicallogimports
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Volume(1,000m
3 )
Cameroon R.ofCongo Equ.GuineaMalaysia Mozambique MyanmarNigeria PNG SolomonIs.
Chinaimportsof“rosewood”logs,2005-2015
Source:WorldTradeAtlasNote:“Rosewood”logfiguresincludeallimportsclassifiedinHScode44039930,whichincludeanumberofspecieswithinthegeneraDalbergia,Pterocarpus,Mille3a,CassiusandDiospyrus.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Value(USmillions)
Laos NigeriaMyanmar IndiaGambia DRCMozambique TogoGuinea-Bissau GhanaBenin MalaysiaVietnam Restofworld
WestAfricaLogExportPriceIndex
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
PriceInde
x(31Jan2013=100)
Note:Thisindexisbasedontwo-weeklynominaleuroprices/m3ofselectedWestAfricanspeciesSource:ITTOTropicalTimberMarketReport,variousissues.Dataunavailablefor2012.
ProducFonoftropicalsawnwood,byregionandmajorITTOproducers,2000-2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Volume(m
illionm
3 )
Africa Asia-Pacific LaFnAmerica/Caribbean
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Volume(m
illionm
3 )
Brazil Malaysia India Indonesia
Thailand ITTOAfrica VietNam
Tropicalsawnwoodexports,majortropicalcountries,2000-2016
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000Vo
lume(1000m
3 )
Malaysia Thailand IndonesiaCameroon Gabon BrazilLaoPDR Restofworld(ITTO)
Tropicalsawnwoodimports,majorITTOcountries2000-2016
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000Vo
lume(1000m
3 )
China Thailand TaiwanPOCEU28 VietNam USARestofworld(ITTO)
Tropicalsawnwoodtrade,majorcountries,2000-2015
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Volume(1,000m
3 )
Thailand China PhilippinesSingapore TaiwanPOC UAEJapan Netherlands
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Value(US$m
illions)
Cameroon Gabon IndonesiaLaoPDR Malaysia ThailandVietNam
Malaysia:Exportsoftropicalsawnwood
China:Importsoftropicalsawnwood
WestAfricaSawnwoodExportPriceIndex
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
PriceInde
x(31Janu
ary2013=100)
Note:Thisindexisbasedontwo-weeklynominaleuroprices/m3ofselectedWestAfricansawnwoodspecies.Source:ITTOTropicalTimberMarketReport,variousissues.Dataunavailablefor2012.
ProducFonoftropicalplywood,majorITTOcountries
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Volume(1000m
3 )
China Indonesia MalaysiaIndia Brazil EcuadorRestofworld(ITTO)
Majorexportersoftropicalplywood
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Volume(1000m
3 )
Indonesia Malaysia China VietNam Restofworld(ITTO)
Majorimportersoftropicalplywood
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000Vo
lume(1000m
3 )
Japan RepublicofKorea USATaiwanPOC China EU-28Restofworld(ITTO)
JapanPlywoodImportPriceIndex
20
40
60
80
100
120
PriceInde
x(31March
2013=100)
Note:Thisindexisbasedontwo-weeklynominaldollarprices/m3ofIndonesianpanelsforconcreteformwork(12mm3'X6'JASC&F),Indonesianfloorbases(3'x6'JASC&F)andIndonesianthinpanels(3'x6'JASC&F).Source:JapanLumberReports,variousissues.
RealGDPgrowth,2000-2021
ITTOProducersandConsumers ITTOProducerRegions
Source:IMFOutlookDatabaseOctober2016(F=Forecast) Source:IMFOutlookDatabaseOctober2016(F=Forecast)
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16F
17F
18F
19F
20F
21F
ITTOproducers ITTOConsumers
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16F
17F
18F
19F
20F
21F
Africa Asia La0nAmerica
Othermarketissuesq Chinaeconomicgrowthanddemandlevelsq ContagioneffectsofChinadownturnontropicalwood
productstradeq Brexit;threatsandopportuni0esq Impactofnewpreferen0altradeagreementsonwood
productstradeq Rela0vemarketcompe00venessofcompe0ngwoodandnon-
woodproductsq Declineintropicalhardwoodavailabilityandqualityq Designtrendsandconsumerpreferencesq Productinnova0onandbuildingtrendsq Energypricesq Climatechange;effec0venessofpoliciesq Elimina0onofillegallyloggedwoodfromsupplychainsin
majortropicalwoodprocessingcountries.
ITTOBiennialReviewandAssessmentoftheWorldTimberSituaFon2015-2016Availableatwww.ino.int