ELECTRONIC WARFARE SOUTH AFRICA 2017 International Conference & Exhibition 6-8 November 2017 | CSIR, Pretoria

ELECTRONIC WARFARE SOUTH AFRICA 2017 International Conference & Exhibition 6-8 November 2017 | CSIR, Pretoria

(Some) EW Trends &

Strategic Influences Christo Cloete ccloete@csir.co.za

Outline “Association of Old Crows”

• Modern Battlespace

• EW Evolution

• Conclusion

Johnny Depp as Tonto in The Lone Ranger

The Modern Battlespace • Battles of the future will not necessarily be fought on battlefields as we knew them, but in

cities, in ungoverned areas, in cyberspace, and in the realm of the electromagnetic spectrum • We are increasingly more dependent on Information and the Electromagnetic Spectrum (EMS) • The Modern battle space is influenced by threats, technology and the velocity of information • In any warfighting environment, the speed of information must exceed the speed of engagement (OODA)

• The problem • The EMS is complex (networked & intricate waveforms), congested, contested and forever changing

(dynamic)

Frequency Allocation

USA

RSA

The Modern Battlespace • Battles of the future will not necessarily be fought on battlefields as we knew them, but in

cities, in ungoverned areas, in cyberspace, and in the realm of the electromagnetic spectrum • We are increasingly more dependent on Information and the Electromagnetic Spectrum (EMS) • The Modern battle space is influenced by threats, technology and the velocity of information • In any warfighting environment, the speed of information must exceed the speed of engagement

• The problem • The EMS is complex (networked & intricate waveforms), congested, contested and forever changing

(dynamic) • Understanding and visualizing what’s happening

• Modern war can be classified as netted resource management, where the role of EW is now more about how to manage spectrum through detecting behaviours as apposed to through signals parameters – EW has to adapt in order to keep up

• Domination of the EMS is the baseline requirement for all missions - Spectrum dominance is the new high ground

• To achieve EMS dominance, a balance between the various EMS and EW elements, cyber (CEMA - Cyber Electromagnetic Activities), intelligence and operations are required • Spectrum superiority is always relative to your adversary’s – therefore intelligence is critically important

• The problem is no longer lack of information, but finding, within the mass of data available, those precise bits of information that are needed to make an informed, reasoned decision

EW in Context

EW and Development/Acquisition

• Technology is driven by the commercial marketplace - military adopts and adapts it for their use • The EW playing field is levelling fast, technologies are rapidly becoming globally available

• Budget constraints drives: • More upgrades as opposed to new systems • More multi-function and integrated solutions • Modular approaches in software and hardware

• Collaboration - It is no longer possible (let alone cost effective) to do everything by one-self • Interoperability essential – Requires open architectures and common standards

• Paradigm shift: • EW has always been viewed as the expensive capability that can't justify its existence with the same Measures of

Effectiveness (MoE) as kinetic (hard kill) solutions • However, EW is about to enter an era where Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) and High Power RF Weapons

(HPRF) can save money due to the net-enablement, multi spectral nature and speed of weapons (systems)

• To ensure suitability and effectiveness, acquisition programs (not big capital programs) must be joint (to ensure the right capability is acquired) and shorter than 18 months • Use Agile (spiral) processes in development and OT&E - Design a little, develop a little, test a little (as

apposed to the classic system engineering approach) • It is not necessary the best technology that wins, but rather the technology that address the user’s

requirement the best • Focus on capabilities instead of programs – no more stove-pipes

EW and Operations • Joint, Interagency, Intergovernmental and Multi-national (JI2M) and

Joint Electromagnetic Spectrum Operations (JEMSO) have become the norm in all military operations • Spectrum superiority also requires a whole of government as well as allies, approach

• Biggest barriers are Culture (people – don’t want to share), Structures (stove-pipes) and Policies

• Conventional SIGINT capabilities are inadequate in characterizing emerging threats • Agile environment requires precision ESM - realtime

• Lessons learned (airborne) - NATO MACE trials 2016 – 16 countries • RF • Using only on-board self-protection “guarantees” a kill (coherent, non-angle deception) • Effectiveness of multiple Stand-In Jammers demonstrated improved surviveability

• IR • 90% effectiveness against IIR missiles demonstrated using • DIRCM first • Followed by spectrally matched flares

NATO • NATO (including the USA) sees Russian and Chinese EW as ahead and a game

changer due to their: • Continued high level of investment into research and planning

• Communications jamming capabilities

• GPS spoofing capabilities

• Counter UAV capabilities

• Main threats are: • Longer range SAMs

• Counter-stealth technologies

• Evasion of traditional targeting means

• Cyber operations

USA • Strategic R&D is very difficult to fund due to the quick changes in technology • To handle the constraint environment requires more innovation (3rd Offset) - get

back the EW technological lead through innovation (not necesary new equipment) • USA 3rd Offset Strategy (Nov 2014) - innovation and dual-use technologies:

• Anti-Area and Access Denial (A2/AD) capabilities ($3Bn) • Jam-resistant guided weapons ($500M) • Underwater warfare, including USV ($3Bn) • Human Machine interactions, including operations with UAV ($3Bn) • EW & Cyber, including CEMA ($2Bn) • Wargaming, including new Concepts of Operations ($500m)

• Only ~25% of future spending will be on traditional EW

• Modelling and Simulation are becoming more important - It is the only way to obtain an understanding of the second-order effects

• Coalitions (between governments, industries, etc.) are needed to form standards – a crucial element in EW

EW & Cyber • USA increased cyber warfare specialists to more than 6,000 by

2016 • Budget in 2014 was $447 million, $5.5 bn for 2016

• EW and Cyber has converged • Software Defined (e.g. 87% of the F-35’s warfighting capability is

software defined)

• Moving from a SoS to a FoS mind-set (onboard to offboard – with the appropriate network capabilities)

• Speed of information drives superiority • F-35 has 20 million lines of code, of which half is off-board (mostly on the

ground), to cater for the FoS capability with its accompanying interdependencies and vulnerabilities

• Radars are designed to be hardened against jamming, but not against denial-of-service attacks

• EW can enable cyberspace operations – the EMS is an entry into cyberspace • Use EA system to deliver malicious code into cyberspace via a wireless

connection - “EW - delivered computer network attack“ – one of the main functions of the US NGJ

EW Systems Evolution • Single function → Modular, highly reconfigurable, multirole

systems • Pre-programmed → Agile (Manoeuvre in Frequency, Power,

Time, Beam Direction and shape) → Adaptive → Cognitive

EW Systems Evolution • Large, dedicated , expensive systems → Low SWAP-C, modular, highly

programmable, distributed and coordinated (micro)-systems • Analog to Digital → Increasingly Software Defined (adaptable) • Each soldier is a system - each platform is a node operating as part of a unified

whole in a network • Doctrine: EW → EW & Cyber • Reactive (traditional) → Pre-emptive - Cognitive (manage spectrum through

detecting behaviors versus the signals parameters EW) • Execution: Platform centric (Node) → Networked → System-of-Systems →

Family-of-Systems

Scenario & Analysis Evolution • Permissive → Contested Anti-Access/Area-Denial

(A2AD) → Hybrid • Extended threat ranges • Integrated Air Defence Systems (IADS) • Full EMS (active & passive) • Cyber

Russia - Richag-AV jammer system (100 kW DRFM)

• Operations Analysis: 1v1 → M vs. N

• Uncertainty increase: Upgrades - Threat Parameters / Location / Redundancy

Sensing, Management and EA Evolution • High power sensing/EA → low-power to no-power sensing, low-

power EA • Monostatic sensing → Multi-static sensing • Onboard → Off-board/Angle deception

• Static EMS management (Fixed frequency allocations) → Dynamically management of the EMS - Electromagnetic Battle Management (EMBM)

Sensors and Weapon Systems Evolution • Single frequency sensing → Multi-spectral systems (multiple RF and EO/IR arrays) per

platform/weapon

• 55Zh6UME radar - VHF and L-band AESA- operating back to back

• KBP 2K22/2K22M/M1 Tunguska SA-19 Grison (Pantsir S )

IFF TAR

FLIR

FLIR

MMW

TTR

TV

TV

IRT

CMD

HORN

Comms Comms

CONOPS Evolution • SOJ (non-surgical - fratricide) → SIJ (surgical) / Kinetic → DEW

• $24.31 billion over the next five years – 24% growth • Game changer – Cost, speed, lethality & logistics • HEL are more mature the HP RFW (mostly anti-IED systems)

UAVs Evolution • Next Generation: • Stealth capabilities • High performance engines • Advanced payloads • Reconfigurable • Autonomy

• Current Generation • Emphasis on endurance • Nano • Tethered

• Market • $4 billion 2015 to $14 bn by 2024 • Military UAV R&D spending will add another $30 bn over the next 10

years • C4I payloads increasing from $3.1 billion (2015) to $6.4 billion (2024)

• Payloads • Electro-Optic • SIGINT • SAR • Air-to-Surface Missile

→

• Payloads • Jammer (IED, Comms, Radar & PNT) • HPRF • Communications • Air-to-Air Missile • Submarine Launched

→

Munitions Evolution • Unguided → Precision (Datalinks) → Loitering

• Kamikaze drones / attack munition

• UVision Air Ltd. of Israel - Hero series

• China's ASN-301 anti-radiation loitering munition • USA’s Seaglider – payload agnostic – fly for 100 nm +

underwater depth 202 m for 60 nm. Wings fold

• Boeings High Altitude Anti-Submarine Warfare Weapon Capability (HAAWC) - 30,000 feet

• IAI Harop a loitering munition optimized for SEAD

• GBU-53/B Small Diameter Bomb • GPS and inertial navigation system, mmW (44 GHz & >100 GHz)

radar, uncooled IIR, semi-active laser & data-links – moving tgts

• Paveway IV • Digital Semi-Active Laser Seeker (112 km/h) • GPS-aided INS (GAINS) with SAASM (selective

availability anti-spoofing module) receiver • Data-Link, programmable fuse and range extension kit

• Precision 155 artillery shells - Guidance fuse (GPS) – US-Army

Missile Evolution • Single sensor → Multi-spectral (incl. passive) → data-linked, long range,

stealthy, hyper-sonic

• Dongfeng-26 Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile • Manoeuvrable warhead & homing seekers (active mmW & passive RF) - Range 2,485 nm

• As Air Forces shrinks, multirole aircraft are going to play a larger role - do

many missions - might not be optimized for any particular mission • Enablers & weapons need to be even better to make up for the loss of platform capability

• Dual-role missile concept, a single weapon to engage air and ground targets

• Ramjet - maintains peak energy state for a longer period unrivalled mix of speed, range and

end-game agility (K-100 200 km+)

• Decline of the emphasis on air-to-air weapons and combat among many major

air forces - moved towards irregular warfare • Significant resurgence in the importance of air-to-air weapon capabilities, as major

powers like Russia and China developed significant air combat platforms

• Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) - 500-nm standoff range

• Kh-58UShE ARM - Mach 4

• Meteor Mach 4+, 100 km+

• MBDA’s SPEAR

MANPADS Evolution • Single detector → Multi-colour, IFF → Imaging

• Igla-S • First Russian MANPADS to incorporate a proximity-

fused warhead

• Verba • Russian three-color seeker on the 9M336 missile • UV, middle-IR and near-IR

• Detection probability of 0.98 against a fighter at 7.7 km

• Toshiba's Type 91 • Fully-imaging seeker

Platform Evolution

• Russia: T-50

• China: J-20

• China: Lijian (Sharp Sword) UCAV

• China: Type 022 missile boat

• USA: Ghost • Poland: PL-01

Communications Evolution • Military radios → Commercial communications →

IoT

Zeta-byte Networks ( 270 bytes)

Internet of Things – Units installed

2017

• Everything is being connected to everything - Gateways

• Spectrum Allocations • 5G - Intelligently understand the demands in real time, dynamically and

allocating network resources to deliver connectivity (machine-to-machine terrestrially & by satellite)

• E.g. 40 Gbit /sec at 240 GHz over 1 km and Google’s Project Loon

• By end-2018, half the African population will be covered by LTE • The “solution” - There is an App for that!

Radar Evolution

• Finmeccanica‘s OSPREY distributed AESA radar (256 TRMs and 120° coverage)

• Single function → Multi-Function (AESAs)

• High Power → Low power (no power)

• Low resolution → High Resolution

• Monostatic → Bi-static → Multi-static → Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO)

• Networked, Agile and low power → LPI/D → Stand-in Jammers

• Leonardo-Finmeccanica’s RAVEN ES-05 radar for Saab’s GRIPEN E

• USA’s Scalable Millimetre-wave Architectures for Reconfigurable Transceivers (SMART) program - wafer-scale integration of RF and microwave TR modules for radar and communications (44 GHz).

• Europe’s Silicon-based Ultra Compact Cost Effective System (SUCCESS) program - 'system-on-chip' (SoC) radars operating beyond 100 GHz

• 32-element 60 GHz Tx/ Rx phased array on a chip

PNT Evolution • Maps → GNSS → Maps → GNSS Alternatives

• Space-Based Augmentation System (SBAS) • Ground-Based Augmentation System (GBAS) • Integration of PNT sensors

• GNSS Jammers

• GNSS Jamming Mitigation

• GNSS Alternatives • Timing & Inertial Measurement Unit (TIMU)

• Global precision time distribution - Ultrafast Laser Science and Engineering Program

• Quantum-Assisted Sensing and Readout (optical atomic clock)

• Beam-forming/null-steering antennas

Training and Evaluation Evolution • Train as you fight / Fight as you train - Realism is key

• A mix of Live Virtual and Constructive is critical for effective training with/ against 5th gen weapon systems – Blended training

• Virtual and constructive is great, but must include the live part • The fog of war is real!

• Keeping in mind that Simulation is not cheap – the true value of simulation is to be found in the quality of the training

• To maintain an asymmetric advantage requires • Joint training exercises with partners (JI2M) in a realistic environment • Degraded EMS environment

• All aspects (DEW, HPRF, GNSS, ARMs, Network attack …)

• Modelling and simulation to prepare for emerging treat systems (which may not exist yet)

• Shift from analog to digital systems, platforms and concepts • SA-Army use Concept Development, Experimentation & Simulation (CDE&S) to

determine the detail and requirements for the development of digital Common Operating Pictures (COPs) at various levels - deployment, preparation and sustainment concepts

• CDE&S require Live, Virtual, Constructive and Serious-Gaming (LVC-G) simulation training and blended-learning

Some International R&D Programs • EMS visualization • Enhanced EMBM capabilities for situational awareness and C2 • Full-spectrum ESM receiver to enable near-instantaneous battlespace SA and control (110 GHz) • Multi-function UAS payloads including COMINT and SIJ • Multiple detection of and protection against small UAVs • GNSS anti-jamming technologies • Cognitive/Adaptive Capabilities: Effectively outpace adversary decision and technical options • Distributed/Coordinated/Net-Enabled Systems: Spatially and temporally diverse awareness, action &

response • Pre-emptive/Proactive Effects: Prevent or disrupt the adversary’s ability to engage our forces • Broadband/Multispectral Components and Systems: EO/IR/RF receivers and transmitters with

wideband and extended spectral coverage • Modular/Open/Reconfigurable Architectures: Software defined; unrestricted waveforms; standard

interfaces • Advanced Electronic Protection Techniques and Technology: Allow unfettered ops in the dense EM

spectrum environment • Single soldier ES/EA systems (including the RadioMap program) • Next generation all-digital active phased arrays • Infrared sensor obscurants • EW and cyber collaboration • EO/IR beam steering at multiple wavelengths • High Power RF technologies and weapons • HEL for fighter jets and self-protection pods

Conclusion

• The EM (Threat) environment is forever changing and becoming more complex - EW must adapt with it

• The best way to understand the future threat environment is to keep tabs on commercial technologies and trends

• EW and Sensors systems requires the following attributes: • Networked (distributed)

• Agile (manoeuver in power, frequency, space and time) & acquisitions

• Multi-Spectral and Multi-functional

• Low Space, Weight and Power and Cost (SWaP-C)

• Adaptive (Modular, scalable, upgradable/Software defined)

• The future of EW lies in: • Integration with Cyber, Collaboration, Cognitive EW, Electromagnetic Battle Management,

DEW, HPRF and Low-to-No power sensors and effectors

The End

We have evolved

in the continued game of Countermeasure and Counter-Countermeasures

Any easy questions?