Electricity Sector Reforms and the Impact of Demand Side ... · Electricity Sector Reforms and the...
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Electricity Sector Reforms and the Impact of Demand Side Management (DSM) in
Sri Lanka
Minoli D. Amarasinghe1, John Foster1 Colin Brown1 and Liam Wagner2
University of Queensland1
and
Griffith University2
IAEE Conference
20 June, 2017
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Outline
1. Background of Sri Lanka Electricity Sector
2. Future projections of Demand and Generation Growth
3. Introduction of DSM and its implementation to decrease diesel generation
4. Methodology of research paper
5. Analyse DSM results received for 2012 – 2015 and how DSM could decrease high costly thermal liquid fuel generation, and overall generation cost
6. Bulk Supply Consumption by Industry, Hotel and General Purpose
Targeting Bulk Consumption to implement DSM
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3Source: Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) Statistical Digest 2015
Background of Sri Lanka’s Electricity Sector
Composition of Installed Generation Capacity (MW)-2015
GDP Growth (%) and Gross Sales (GWh)
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Demand: Compilation of data from CEB GDP: Compilation of data from the World Bank Data Base
Growth in Electricity Generation and Sales in Sri Lanka
Source: Compilation of data from the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB)
Demand and Generation Projection
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Source: Compilation of data from the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) LTGEP (2015)
Peak Demand Projections and Corresponding Growth Rate (%)
Concepts of Demand Side Management (DSM)
Clark W. Gellings View• Peak Clipping
• Load Shifting
• Conservation
• Flexibility of load shape
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Source: Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB); http://www.ceb.lk/sub/knowledge/demandside.html
Methodology: DSM to Decrease Generation Costs & Emissions
• Q* = Sum of total dispatch of power plants in each Half Hour.
• Demand = Demand for 48 half hours segments a day, for 365 days and for 4 years
• Price = Prices is based on the least marginal cost dispatch method. Dispatch of each generator with respect to the Marginal Cost (ascending)
𝑖 ∈ 𝐺𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑠
𝑆𝑝𝑜𝑡 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 = 𝑀𝐶𝑖 𝑡ℎ
• This will provide the Half Hourly Spot price.
𝑆𝑃𝐷 =
𝑖=1
𝑛
𝑔𝜌𝑖 ∗ 𝑆𝑃𝐻𝐻
• This will provide the emissions curtailed
𝐸𝐻𝐻 =
𝑖=1
𝑛
𝑔𝜌𝑖 ∗ 𝐸𝐼𝐹𝑖
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Methodology
• Implementing Demand Side Management (DSM) would enable to determine new price for each half hour (HH) dispatch generators based on the marginal cost of each generating unit
𝑄𝑑1 = 𝑄𝑠1 = 𝑄𝑠 −
𝑗=1
𝑛
𝐷𝑆𝑀𝑗
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𝑸𝒔
𝑸𝒔 = 𝑸𝒅
𝑬𝒔&𝒅 = 𝑸𝒔𝟏 = 𝑸𝒅 − 𝑫𝑴𝑺𝒅 = 𝑸𝒅𝟏
P
P1
P2
DQ1Q2
Electricity System Installed Generation Capacity by Marginal Cost
9Source: Compilation of data from the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) during field work of 2015 & 2016
2012 – Half Hourly Dispatch based on Marginal Cost of Generators
10Source: Compilation of data from the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) during field work of 2015 & 2016
2012 Generation Costs and Weighted Average DSM (%)
11Source: Results Based on Electricity Market Modelling and Analysis
2012 - 2015 Monthly Generation Cost and DSM (%)
12Source: Results Based on Electricity Market Modelling and Analysis
2012 Monthly Emissions Reduction due to DSM
13Source: Results Based on Electricity Market Modelling and Analysis
2012 - 2015 Monthly Emissions Reduction due to DSM
14Source: Results Based on Electricity Market Modelling and Analysis
Bulk Consumption By Time of Use (TOU)
15Source: Compilation of data from the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) during field work of 2015 & 2016
Sri Lanka Electricity Distribution Region
Source: Compilation of data from the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB)
Industry Bulk Consumption Composition By TOU and Region
17Source: Compilation of data from the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) during field work of 2015 & 2016
2012 – 2015 – DSM (%) Contribution from Industry Bulk Consumers
18Source: Results Based on Electricity Market Modelling and Analysis
How to implement DMS with Bulk Supply Customers• Regions with well developed districts/provinces
dominate the electricity consumption
Industry, GP and Hotel sector dominated by a particular province/district
Within each Region there are very developed districts/provinces and quite under developed districts/provinces.
Target industries in quite well developed districts/provinces with discriminatory DMS programs, including effective tariffs systems (prince incentives) and other financial incentives to reduce the load particular during peak times
There could also be programs to incentivize industrial customers in developed districts to invest on roof-top solar panels with good battery capacity to reduce the on-peak load taken from the national grid
Thank you
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Demand Curve of Varying Days
21Source: Compilation of data from the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB)