Electricity Demand Projection in India

8/10/2019 Electricity Demand Projection in India

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Electricity Demand Projection (in India)

Many national and international agencies have made projections of energy demands of

India. We first present a survey of various studies and then give our projections.

A Survey of Various Studies

There is a considerable spread in energy demand forecasts made for India by various

investigators. Some important forecasts/scenarios are summarized in Table 3.

Various working groups of the steering committee on energy sector for the 10th five year

plan projected an average primary commercial energy demand growth rate of 5.74%/yr for

the two forthcoming five year plans. In view of (a) the increased emphasis on energy

efficiency and energy conservation, (b) an expected higher contribution of the service sector

to the GDP in future and (c) the impact of information technology and e-commerce, the

steering committee came up with a lower figure of 4.25%/yr for the demand growth rate .

The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) , carried out an analysis of the Indian energy

scenario and suggested strategies for sustainable development . In their base case scenario

the primary energy growth rate was taken as 4.4%/yr during the period 1997-2019 and

3.6%/yr during the period 2020-2047. For electricity, the corresponding growth rates were

5.7%/yr and 3.9%/yr. In the alternative scenario, growth rates are smaller, 3.7%/yr and

3.0%/yr for the primary energy and 5.1%/yr and 3.4%/yr for electricity. Both of these

scenarios assume a very large dependence on imports, which is projected to increase from

about 20% in the year 1997 to about 70% in the year 2047 in the base scenario and 60%

in the alternative scenario.

The International Energy Outlook 2002 (IEO) of the United States predicts for India a

reference primary energy consumption growth rate of 3.6%/yr during the period 1997 to

2020. The high and low growth scenarios correspond to 4.5%/yr and 2.6%/yr respectively.

For the electricity consumption, the three corresponding growth rates for the above period

are 3.8%/yr, 4.5%/yr and 2.6%/yr.

Under the project A Long-term Perspective on Environment and Development in the Asia-

Pacific Region of the Environment Agency of the Government of Japan the primary energy

consumption growth rates, for India, were projected to be 3.9%/yr till the year 2025,

2.6%/yr till the year 2050 and 1.8%/yr till the year 2100 under their high estimate category


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. Similar growth rates have been assumed for India in another study US -Japan Energy

Cooperation to Help Achieve Sustainable Development in Asia .

The primary and electricity energy growth rate forecasts made by the Institute of Energy

Economics of Japan (IEEJ), for India, are 5.2%/yr and 5.4%/yr respectively for the

forthcoming twenty years .

The Royal Society and The Royal Academy of Engineers of the United Kingdom in their study

on the role of nuclear energy in generating electricity have referred to Morrisons projections

of world energy requirement. For the developing nations, those are based on 4%/yr until

the year 2026, 3%/yr until the year 2050 and 2%/yr for the rest of the century.

In India, Central Electricity Authority (CEA) undertakes periodic electric power surveys

(EPS) to make projections of the energy requirements of the country. These estimates guide

the planning process for the capacity additions. CEA released its report on the 16th electric

power survey in January 2001 and projected electricity growth requirement, for the period

1997-2012, to be about 6.5%/yr and 7.4%/yr in its two scenarios.

Beyond the year 2050, most of the energy growth forecasts are around 1 to 2%/yr.

Demand Projection: Our View

Indias GDP is growing fast. Energy Intensity of GDP has been observed to follow a certain

trend worldwide. Below a certain level of development, growth results in increase in energy

intensity. With further growth in economy, the energy intensity starts declining. Energy

intensity of GDP in India is same as in OECD countries , when GDP is calculated in terms of

the purchasing power parity (PPP). Energy-GDP elasticity , the ratio of the growth rates of

the two, remained around 1.3 from early fifties to mid-seventies. Since then it has been

continuously decreasing. Electricity is the most important component of the primary energy.

Electricity-GDP elasticity was 3.0 till the mid-sixties. It has also decreased since then.

Reasons for these energyeconomy elasticity changes are: demographic shifts from rural tourban areas , structural economic changes towards lighter industry, impressive growth of

services, increased use of energy efficient devices, increased efficiency of conversion

equipments and inter-fuel substitution with more efficient alternatives. Based on the CMIE

data the average value of the Electricity-GDP elasticity during 1991-2000 has been

calculated to be 1.213 and that of the primary energy- GDP elasticity to be 0.907.


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Estimating the future GDP growth rates of India from the projections made by Dominic

Wilson and Roopa Purushothaman , taking the primary energy intensity fall to be 1.2 %/yr ,

extrapolating the electricity intensity fall from past data till the year 2022 and subsequently

a constant fall of 1.2 %/yr the growth rates of the primary energy and electrical energy

have been estimated by us as follows.

These rates form the basis of the projections reported in this study. It may be recalled that

historical primary energy and electricity growth rates during the period 1981-2000 were

6%/yr and 7.8%/yr respectively.

Based on the growth rates given in the above table, per capita electricity generation would

reach about 5300 kWh per year in the year 2052 and the total about 8000 billion kWh. By

then the cumulative energy expenditure will be about 2400 EJ. The ratio of thermal

equivalent of electrical energy to the primary commercial energy will rise from about 57% in

the year 2002-03 to about 65% in the year 2052-53.

Power generation in India was only 4.1 billion kWh in the year 1947-48 and in the year

2002-03 it was more than 600 billion kWh. Considering the past record, the future economy

growth scenario and likely boost to captive power plant sector as a result of changes arising

due to Electricity Act 2003 , the target of generating about 8000 billion kWh per year by

2052 is achievable.


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Lindsay Hughes

FDI(Future Directions International) Research An alyst

With 1.2 billion people, India desperately needs energy to fuel its economic growth.

Its demand for energy is expected to grow by 95 per cent by 2030.

India does not possess sufficient energy resources to cater to either current or future requirement. In 2029 - 2030 at 6 per cent GDP growth demand will peak at approximately 255,000 MW and

295,000 MW at 9 per cent growth.

India will, therefore, remain a net energy importer for the foreseeable future.

While coal will remain Indias main energy source, there will be a growing use of gas.

This situation could be to Australias advantage.

Summary

Meeting Indias Energy Requirements in 2030

To eradicate poverty, India requires sustained economic growth at greater than eight per cent a year

over the next twenty-five years, with development distributed equally. To sustain this growth, it

requires access to guaranteed supplies of energy. India is simultaneously coming under increased

international pressure to better control its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mainly produced by the

burning of fossil fuels.

Approximately 600 million Indians live without electricity, and 700 million use traditional bio-mass as

the fuel for their cooking. This activity accounts for over 75 per cent of domestic energy demand.

The task of cooking falls directly upon women and girl children. Usually carried out indoors, this

function has a major effect on their health. Overall, the lack of guaranteed clean energy supplies is a

major cause of illiteracy, gender inequality, disempowerment of women, lack of clean drinking water,

health problems and other issues.

India must effectively separate its economic growth from fossil fuel demand while still ensuring

access to sufficient energy, and adhering to enhanced ecological restrictions. It must manage

existing and future energy sources better.

To best gauge Indias energy demands in 2030, this report will: examine its energy estimates and

actual production in the 11thfive year plan (20072012); examine the estimates for the twelfth five

year plan (2012- 2017) including the carry-over from the eleventh plan; briefly examine nascent

estimates for the thirteenth five year plan; and estimate Indias requirements in 2030.


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Synopsis of Indias Five-Year Plans (20072022)


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The Twelfth Five Year Plan (1 April 201231 March 2017)

Indias twelfth five year plans estimates that an additional capacity of 75,785 MW is required

over the plan period, giving a total capacity of approximately 276,000 MW.

To decrease the gap between peak demand and peak deficit and to permit the retirement of older,

inefficient energy plants, the plan target has been fixed at 88,537 MW. To meet this target, the

private sector share of this additional capacity will be increased to 53 per cent, up from 19 per cent

in the eleventh plan. If the revised growth rate of 8.2 per cent (against the original 9.0 per cent) is

taken as the target it will allow for around 10 per cent leeway.

Overall, the projected growth rate in power generation over the period 2012-2017 is expected

to be 9.8 per cent.


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Capacity Additions for the thirteenth five-year paln are estimated below:


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Additionally, estimates indicate that renewable sources of energy will provide an additional 30,500

MW. This will comprise 16,000 MW solar energy, 11,000 MW wind energy, 2,000 MW biomass, and

1,500 MW hydro-power. This additional capacity should allow India to meet its total energy needs.

Shortfalls will be minor and met by localised energy sources or by the state authorities.


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The projected change in the mix of generation by fuel source sees a major realignment. Renewable

sources will account for 9 per cent of power generation in 2017, up from 6 per cent in 2012; they will

then increase again to 16 per cent in 2030. On the other hand, power from hydro-capacity is

expected to fall from 15 per cent in 2012 to 11 per cent in 2030, and nuclear power generation to

rise from 3 per cent in 2012 to 5 per cent in 2017, then to 12 per cent in 2030. Overall, therenewables sector is expected to rise from 26 per cent in 2012 to 39 per cent in 2030

India's Shift to a Sustainable Energy Future

by Sonia Luthra, Assistant Director for Outreach at NBR - March 28, 2014

India is the worlds fourth-largest energy consumer and wil l l ikely overtake China in the next

decade as the primary sour ce of growth i n global energy demand.

In this NBR interview, Manish Bapna, Executive Vice President and Managing Director at the

World Resources Institute, examines the steps I ndia is taking toward a more sustainable energy

future.He argues that while India has made important progress on renewable energy, low-

carbon alternatives, and increased energy efficiency, much of the potential in this area remains

unrealized, including opportunities for greater U.S.-India collaboration.

Indias National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) recommends that the country

generate 10% of its power from renewable sources by 2015, and 15% by 2020.

What progress has India made on renewable energy in recent years?

India is a key country in the efforts of the international community to shift to a sustainable, low-

carbon path that will confront climate change, improve human health, and foster prosperity for

all. In India, climate action will be most successful when integrated with efforts to tackle existing

challenges in energy access, water security, agricultural productivity, disaster resilience, and

broader economic development goals. For example, distributed or on-site generation ofrenewable energy, such as rooftop solar panels, can play a significant role in providing access,

especially in rural areas. According to the World Bank, over 400 million people in India lack

electricity.


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India has taken important steps on renewable energy with increasing installed capacity.

The renewable energy goals require continued effort, strong implementation, and improved

utilization of capacity, but there are favorable signs. In 2008, India launched its NAPCC,

featuring eight national missions, ranging from R&D to sustainable agriculture, with centerpiece

programs to scale up solar power and energy efficiency.

With respect to renewable energy, there are great opportunities for India and its

international partners.

As an Ernst & Young report states, in emerging markets renewable energy potential is attracting

high levels of foreign investment, generating new jobs and creating local supply chains.... For

investors, renewable energy assets are generating robust returns. The role of government-to-

government cooperation and public-private partnerships is also important.

Last year, India nearly doubled its solar energy capacity and there was great interest

demonstrated in the first projects under Phase 2 bidding conducted by the National Solar

Mission. Also, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy is expected to provide tax benefits

and grid improvements to take advantage of the potential for more wind energy.

What are the roles of the public and private sectors in this?

Many public officials and business leaders in India and internationally recognize the potential in

India and are taking action. To make these measures successful and to go further faster, many

realize that action is needed along a broad front. This includes technology and finance but also

development of knowhow, streamlining of regulation and government administration, and a

continued shift to greater reliance on the market. With Indias growing economy and energy

security needs, this agenda is challenging, but the opportunities are enormous. Not only is low-

carbon energy compatible with economic growth, but in many cases, such as in providing

distributed generation in rural areas, it is a better, more cost-effective option. It can help bring

relief for smog-choked cities and a new wave of investment opportunities.

One example of U.S.-Indian private-sector collaboration is the work that the World

Resources Institute (WRI) and the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) are doing with


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Indian and U.S.companies to explore, test, and demonstrate new models that make

renewable energy more affordable.

This activity creates more private demand for renewable energy that will create new

business opportunities. Indian commercial and industrial companies like Infosys have beenexcellent champions for green power purchasing and understand the energy security value

of renewable energy.

An important regulatory challenge is developing strong market and regulatory models for

energy access using mini-grid and off-grid solutions.India has launched efforts to make the

shift described here, with leadership at the national level and in states such as Gujarat and

Maharashtra, but as many officials and stakeholders in India and internationally know, stronger,

more widespread measures are needed.

What opportunities are there within India to shift toward increased energy efficiency?

In the shift to a low-carbon path in India, energy efficiency is a high-value target for action and

an opportunity both for Indian and international investors and other stakeholders. Indias

National Energy Efficiency Mission includes the Perform, Achieve, and Trade program which

sets a percentage by which companies must reduce energy intensity. Those that beat their targets

receive tradable permits they can sell to plants that come up short and would otherwise face

penalties. Other efficiency programs are directed at buildings, appliances, and vehicles.

According to one study, by pursuing these efficiency gains, India can avoid 120 gigawatts of

power capacity by 2030 and, with stronger measures, has the potential to achieve substantial

additional gains.

Oneenergy experthas said that rather than building new, mostly carbon-emitting generation

facilities, investment in a more efficient electricity grid would do wonders forboth [Indias]

energy security and the environment, adding that today, Indias transmission and distribution

losses are astounding.

Another important opportunity for increased efficiency is in building codes, made critical

by the massive urbanization expected in coming years.Buildings in India already consume

over 30% of electricity and two-thirds of the buildings that will exist in 2030 will be built
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between now and that date. As an example of what can be done, the city of Hyderabad recently

adopted an energy conservation building code for commercial and high-rise residential

buildings, expected to garner major energy savings. There is a key role here for state and local

governments working with the private sector to reap huge benefits for the low-carbon future.

Another area for stepped-up action on efficiency is fuel economy, where India is moving forward

with new standards but has greater potential.

Charge

Charge, a WRI Energy signature initiative, works to create electricity markets that will deliver

10 billion MWh of affordable renewable energy and extend access to 1 billion people by 2020.

As the costs of renewable energy fall dramatically, we have an opportunity to solve access and

climate challenges. But this requires substantial change throughout the electricity sector,

including understanding the costs and benefits of renewable energy compared to business as

usual and developing new models for buying, planning for, and regulating electricity. The

promise of emerging technologies can be enabled by an evolving sector that delivers low-carbon

development.

Future Perspectives for Renewable Energy in India

India is facing an acute energy scarcity which is hampering its industrial growth and economic

progress. Setting up of new power plants is inevitably dependent on import of highly volatile

fossil fuels. Thus, it is essential to tackle the energy crisis through judicious utilization of

abundant the renewable energy resources, such asbiomass energy,solar energy,wind

energyandgeothermal energy.Apart from augmenting the energy supply, renewable resources

will help India in mitigating climate change. India is heavily dependent on fossil fuels for its

energy needs. Most of the power generation is carried out by coal and mineral oil-based power

plants which contribute heavily to greenhouse gases emission.

Energy is a necessity and sustainable renewable energy is a vital link in industrialization and

development of India. A transition from conventional energy systems to those based on
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renewable resources is necessary to meet the ever-increasing demand for energy and to address

environmental concerns.

There is an urgent need for transition from petroleum-based energy systems to one based on

renewable resources to decrease reliance on depleting reserves of fossil fuels and to mitigateclimate change. In addition, renewable energy has the potential to create many employment

opportunities at all levels, especially in rural areas. An emphasis on presenting the real picture of

massive renewable energy potential, it would be possible to attract foreign investments to herald

a Green Energy Revolution in India.

Author: Ravi Soparkar

Electrical Engineer from Mumbai. 40 + years experience in engineering business. Working on

micro-generation feasibility in renewable energy for past five years. Participated in numerous

national and international conferences and workshops all over the world. Presently associated as

senior consultant with Super Consultants Inc from Maryland USA

India's Shift to a Sustainable Energy Future

An Interview with Manish Bapna

-----March 26, 2014

India is the worlds fourth-largest energy consumer and will likely overtake China in the next

decade as the primary source of growth in global energy demand. As NBR has examined in its

series ofpubli cations for the Senate India Caucus,India must overcome a number of

challenges to meet its rising energy demand and sustain economic growth. The country is the

worlds third-largest carbon dioxide emitter,and Indiasclimateandenvironmentalchallenges

have been acknowledged by many policy and industry leaders. The Bharatiya Janata Party

candidate for prime minister, Narendra Modi, among others, has called for an energy

revolution to harness the countrys coal, gas, hydro, nuclear, and wind resources to promote

energy security and economic development in a sustainable manner.
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In this NBR interview, Manish Bapna, Executive Vice President and Managing Director at the

World Resources Institute, examines the steps India is taking toward a more sustainable energy

future. He argues that while India has made important progress on renewable energy, low-

carbon alternatives, and increased energy efficiency, much of the potential in this area remains

unrealized, including opportuniti es for greater U.S.-India coll aboration.

Indian Renewable Energy Sector to Create 2.4 Million Jobs by 2020

Posted November 24, 2012

Indias renewable energy sector create up to 2.4 million jobs by 2020, according to a report

jointly commissioned by environmental group Greenpeace, the Global Wind Energy

Council and the European Renewable Energy Council.

To date, the sector employs 200,000 people, but this could jump 14 times by 2030 with the

right policies and investments in place, stated India Energy [R]evolution report.

By 2050, about 92 percent of Indias energy infrastructure will be based on renewable energy

sources. Renewables such as wind, solar thermal energy and photovoltaic, will comprise 74

percent of electricity generation.

It is a win-win strategy for India to combine security of energy supply and job creation,

said Sven Teske, Senior Energy Expert from Greenpeace International.

The total average yearly investment in fossil fuels will be offset by the growth of renewable

energy, stated the report. Thus, India would shift roughly 97 percent of the overall investments in

renewables along with cogeneration, of which the average renewable energy investments

annually will reach 6.1 trillion India rupees ($ 117 billion) between 2011 and 2050.

Future of Indias growth lies with massive expansion and deployment of renewable energy

technologies through key policy reforms and significant investments, without putting any

negative impact on its pristine forest and dependent marginalized communities,stressed

Greenpeace.

Electricity Demand Projection in India

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