Electric Vehicle Adoptions among CT Zip Codes at Flat and Off-Peak Electricity Rates: County Impacts...
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Electric Vehicle Adoptions among CT Zip Codes at Flat and Off-Peak Electricity Rates: County Impacts REMI Seminar Lake Tahoe, 12 October 2012 Peter E Gunther Senior Research Fellow CCEA
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Transcript of Electric Vehicle Adoptions among CT Zip Codes at Flat and Off-Peak Electricity Rates: County Impacts...
Electric Vehicle Adoptions among CT Zip Codes atFlat and Off-Peak Electricity Rates: County Impacts
REMI SeminarLake Tahoe, 12 October 2012
Peter E Gunther Senior Research Fellow CCEA
Introduction: Zip Code Data
• Yearly Vehicle registrations by type 2005-2009• Aggregate Family Incomes• Commuters from Destination Zip Code (ZC) by
Distance Ergo electric and gas used in GM’s Volts
• Distance Ranges by Commuters possibly in EVs:– Volts 50 Miles– Tesla Up to 400 Miles – Sedans Out in Mid 2012
• CT Data on 252 residential ZCs out of 341
Background Process
• Used Annual Cross-Sectional Data on 252 CT ZCs to Estimate Registrations in Other 89
• Mapped Market Penetrations @ 5% and 25%• Approximation of Required
Transformer/Transmission Upgrades• Projected EVs and Total Light Vehicle Growth • Transformer Upgrades at:– 5% Market Penetration If Charged at Flat Rates– 25% Market Penetration If Charged at Off-Peak Rates
Concentrations of Zip Codes Requiring Transmission Upgrades in 2022 Flat Rates (n=341)
Concentrations of Zip Codes Requiring Transmission Upgrades in 2022 Off-Peak Rates (n=341)
Stepwise Approach: Bifurcated for Flat and Off-Peak Rates
• Based on Elasticities on the Spread between Flat and Off-Peak Rates in CT Developed a Cost Neutral Rate Spread for Homeowners to Attain Off-Peak Rates
• Incremental Household Savings on Gasoline • = Increased Electricity Costs + Increased
Consumption Reallocation• Off-Peak Electricity Savings $ Exceed Flat
Analytical Progression
• Straight Substitution of Electricity for Gasoline
• GHG Reductions – Amenity Benefits
@ $38.98/tonne CO2eq
• Capital Adjustments-Accelerating Actual Non-
Residential Capital Toward Optimum Capital
Connecticut Job Impacts from Adopting EVs 2013-2030 Flat and Off-Peak Rates without Amenities
20132014
20152016
20172018
20192020
20212022
20232024
20252026
20272028
20292030
(600.0)
(400.0)
(200.0)
-
200.0
400.0
600.0
Electricity at Flat Rates No Anemities Off-Peak Rates No Amenities
County Job Impacts Off-Peak Rates without Amenities
20132014
20152016
20172018
20192020
20212022
20232024
20252026
20272028
20292030
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Fairfield New Haven Hartford TollandNew London Windham Litchfield Middlesex
GHGRelative Intensity of GHG Reductions 2027
Value of GHG Reductions (Millions 2010 $)
20132014
20152016
20172018
20192020
20212022
20232024
20252026
20272028
0.000
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
Fairfield
New Haven
Hartford
Tolland
New London
Windham
Litchfield
Mid-dlesex
Connecticut Impacts from Adopting EVs Flat and Off-Peak Rates with & without Amenities (# of Jobs)
20132014
20152016
20172018
20192020
20212022
20232024
20252026
20272028
20292030
(800.0)
(600.0)
(400.0)
(200.0)
-
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
Electricity at Flat Rates No Anemities Off-Peak Rates No AmenitiesElectricity at Flat Rates & Anemities Off-Peak Rates and Amenities
County Job Impacts Off-Peak Rates without Amenities
20132014
20152016
20172018
20192020
20212022
20232024
20252026
20272028
20292030
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Fairfield New Haven Hartford TollandNew London Windham Litchfield Middlesex
2023 & 2028 Sector Impacts from Adopting EVs at Flat and Off-Peak Rates with & without Amenities (# of Jobs)
(2,000)
(1,000)
-
1,000
Flat Rate
Flat Rate and Ameni-ties
Off-Peak Rate
Off-Peak Rate and Amenities
(4,000)
(2,000)
-
2,000
Flat Rate
Flat Rate and Amenities
Off-Peak Rate
Off-Peak Rate and Amenities
Connecticut Impacts on Capital Stock (Millions Fixed 2005 $)
2023 2028
Flat R
ate
Flat R
ate and Amenities
Off-Peak Rate
Off-Peak Rate and Amenities
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Actual Optimal
Flat R
ate
Flat R
ate and Amenities
Off-Peak Rate
Off-Peak Rate and Amenities
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Actual Optimal
Connecticut Impacts on Capital Stock: Flat Rates no Amenities (Millions Fixed 2005 $)
20132014
20152016
20172018
20192020
20212022
20232024
20252026
20272028
20292030
-
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
Actual (Millions of Fixed 2005 $) Optimal (Millions of Fixed 2005 $)
Capital Adjustments
• This Study Produced Estimates of Actual and Optimal Changes to Capital Stock for Each Scenario
• Given that Reliability Is a Virtual Necessity,• The Gap between Optimal and Actual Is Used as a
Proxy for Capital Adjustment:– 40% Construction– 30% Producer Durable Purchase of Engines & Turbines– 30% Producer Durable Purchase of Transmission
Job Impacts of Capital AdjustmentsFlat Rates Off-Peak Rates
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
2029 (800.0) (600.0) (400.0) (200.0)
- 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0
1,000.0 1,200.0 1,400.0 1,600.0 1,800.0 2,000.0
Electricity at Flat Rates No Anemities
Electricity at Flat Rates & Anemities
Electricity at Flat Rates, Capital Adjustment, No Amenities
Electricity at Flat Rates, Capital Adjustment & Ameni-ties
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
2029 (800.0) (600.0) (400.0) (200.0)
- 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0
1,000.0 1,200.0 1,400.0 1,600.0 1,800.0 2,000.0
Off-Peak Rates No Amenities
Off-Peak Rates and Amenities
Off-Peak Rates, Capital Adjustment, No Amenities
Off-Peak Rates, Capital Adjustment & Amenities
Job Impacts with Replacement Batteries Flat Rates Off-Peak Rates
20132014
20152016
20172018
20192020
20212022
20232024
20252026
20272028
20292030
(200.0)
-
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
1,800.0
2,000.0
Electricity at Flat Rates, Capital Adjustment, No Amenities Electricity at Flat Rates, Capital Adjustment & AmenitiesFlat Rates, Capital Adjustment, Amenities & Batteries
20132014
20152016
20172018
20192020
20212022
20232024
20252026
20272028
20292030
(500.0)
-
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
Off-Peak Rates, Capital Adjustment, No AmenitiesOff-Peak Rates, Capital Adjustment & AmenitiesOff-Peak Rates, Capital Adjustment, Amenities & Batteries
Real Income Impacts (Millions Fixed 2005 $)
Flat Rates Off-Peak Rates
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
20290
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
CTRGDP Capital Adjustments CTRPI Capital AdjustmentsCTRGDP No Capital Adjustments CTRPI No Capital Adjustments
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
20290
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
CTRGDP CTRPI CTRGDP No Capital Adjustments CTRPI No Capital Adjustments
Current Income Impacts Before Financing (Millions Current$)
Flat Rates Off-Peak Rates
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
20290
100
200
300
400
500
600
Personal Income Capital Adjustments
Personal Disposable Income Capital Ad-justments
Personal Income: No Capital Adjustments
Personal Disposable Income: No Capital Ad-justments
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
20290
100
200
300
400
500
600
Personal Income Capital Adjustments
Personal Disposable Income Capital Ad-justments
Personal Income: No Capital Adjustments
Personal Disposable Income: No Capital Ad-justments
Further Rate Adjustments?
• Scott’s approach is to adjust rates to cover capital costs
• Yet, in this scenario new electricity supplies are demand driven
• Test: If value added by utilities exceeds incremental capital expenditures by a significant margin, then no further rate adjustments may be need.
Utility Value Added before & after Deducting Capital Expenses (Millions 2005 $)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 20300.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
Value Added Flat Rates before Capital Expneses Value Added Flat Rates after Capital ExpnesesValue Added Off-Peak Rates before Capital Expneses Value Added Off-Peak Rates after Capital Expneses
Employment SummaryFlat Rates Off-Peak Rates
20132014
20152016
20172018
20192020
20212022
20232024
20252026
20272028
20292030
(1,000.0)
(500.0)
-
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
Flat Rates No Anemities Flat Rates & Anemities Flat Rates, Capital Adjustment, No Amenities Flat Rates, Capital Adjustment & AmenitiesFlat Rates, Capital Adjustment & Funding, Amenities & Batteries
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
2029 (500.0)
-
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
Off-Peak Rates No Amenities
Off-Peak Rates and Amenities
Off-Peak Rates, Capital Adjustment, No Ameni-ties
Off-Peak Rates, Capital Adjustment & Amenities
Off-Peak Rates, Capital Adjustment & Funding, Amenities & Batteries
Current Income Impacts Inclusive of Financing (Millions Current $)Flat Rates Off-Peak Rates
20132014
20152016
20172018
20192020
20212022
20232024
20252026
20272028
20292030
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Personal Income, Capital Adjustments and FinancingPersonal Disposable Income, Capital Adjustments and FinancingPersonal Income Capital AdjustmentsPersonal Disposable Income Capital Adjustments
20132014
20152016
20172018
20192020
20212022
20232024
20252026
20272028
20292030
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Personal Income, Capital Adjustments and FinancingPersonal Disposable Income, Capital Adjustments and FinancingPersonal Income Capital AdjustmentsPersonal Disposable Income Capital Adjustments
Utility Output Impacts (Millions 2005 $)Flat Rate Off-Peak Rates
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
2029
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Value Added Net of FinancingCT OuputDemand
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
2029
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Value Added Net of FinancingCT OuputDemand
Utility Output Impacts (% of Base)Flat Rate Off-Peak Rates
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
2029-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
Value Added Net of FinancingCT OuputDemand
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
2029
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
Value Added Net of FinancingCT OuputDemand
Conclusions• Off-peak electricity rates position EV owners to save on EV transportation
operating costs and to allocate more household income to other consumption than occurs with flat rates.
• With curtailed demand for gasoline, stations will close causing a drop in retail employment in all scenarios
• Prior to Capital Adjustments, the Off-Peak Rate Structure Generates More Jobs and Income
• Including Financing in the Model is Necessary – It Increases Employment and Income Impacts
• Utility Output Impacts under Off-Peak Rates are About two-Thirds of Those under Flat Rates.
• While Flat Rates Appear to Generate More Income this Occurs Only Because the Capital Adjustment Is $600 Million Higher than Necessary under Off-Peak Rates - A Measure of the Wasted Resources from Misguided Flat Rate Policies!
