Electric Fan Industry
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Transcript of Electric Fan Industry
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Production of Electric Fans in India
Month 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
April 6.6 6.9 7.7 9 9.2 9.6
May 6.7 7.3 8.1 8.5 9.5 9.7
June 5.9 7.2 8.7 8.7 7.9 8.8 July 4.9 7.2 8.2 7.2 7 9.7
August 5.8 7.2 6.8 8.1 6.1 6.9
September 6.4 7.5 6.5 7.7 6.6 7.5
October 6.2 7.2 7.6 8.5 6.8 7.3
November 6.3 7.4 7.7 8.2 7 7.7
December 9.6 7.1 7.7 8.3 8.2 8.8
January 7.5 7.8 7.6 8.2 8.9 9.4
February 7.6 8.1 7.3 8.3 9.8 10.2
March 8.1 8.7 8 9.3 10.2 11.8
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2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
9.7 10.1 10.4 9.8
10.1 11.3 11.6 10.7
9.9 10.8 10.7 10.69.1 9.7 9.5 10.7
8.9 8.8 8.8 10
8.6 8.4 8.9
8.2 8.1 8.4
8.8 8.6 7.6
9.4 9.7 8.2
10.5 10.3 9.6
10.9 10.6 10.4
11.1 10.9 11.3
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Year Quarter Production
2000-01 1 19.2
2000-01 2 17.1
2000-01 3 22.1
2000-01 4 23.2
2001-02 1 21.4
2001-02 2 21.9
2001-02 3 21.7
2001-02 4 24.6
2002-03 1 24.5
2002-03 2 21.5
2002-03 3 25
2002-03 4 22.9
2003-04 1 26.2
2003-04 2 23
2003-04 3 25
2003-04 4 25.8
2004-05 1 26.6
2004-05 2 19.7
2004-05 3 22
2004-05 4 28.9
2005-06 1 28.1
2005-06 2 24.1
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MAXIMUM 184.43 159.85
MINIMUM 96.83 82.38
odified mea 108.14 93.12
402.9
Step 6 djust the Modified Mean
Quarter Unadjusted Indices Adjusting Constant
1 108.14 0.99
2 93.12 0.99
3 92.23 0.99
4 109.42 0.99
Total of Seasonal Indices
Mean of Seasonal indices
Total of
Indices
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81.6 20.420.68
83.8 20.95
21.55
88.6 22.15
22.1
88.2 22.05
22.23
89.6 22.4
22.79
92.7 23.18
23.13
92.3 23.08
23.49
95.6 23.9
23.69
93.9 23.48
23.69
95.6 23.9
24.09
97.1 24.28
24.28
97.1 24.28
24.64
100 25
25.05
100.4 25.1
24.69
97.1 24.28
23.9
94.1 23.53
23.9197.2 24.3
24.49
98.7 24.68
25.45
104.9 26.23
26.23
104.9 26.23
26.54
Step 1:4 -Quarter Moving Total
Step 2 :4 -Quarter Moving
Average
Step 3:4 -Quartered
CenteredMoving Average
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107.4 26.85
27.05
109 27.25
27.56
111.5 27.88
28.2
114.1 28.53
28.66115.2 28.8
29.11
117.7 29.43
29.46
118 29.5
29.5
118 29.5
29.41
117.3 29.33
29.39117.8 29.45
29.49
118.1 29.53
29.25
115.9 28.98
28.91
115.4 28.85
28.65
113.8 28.45
24.6183.1 20.78
16.86
51.8 12.95
12.95
Q3 Q4
95.23 106.38
105.54 95.07
99.8 104.51
89.84 113.56
87.99 113.92
90.68 110.31
89.83 107.84
84.47 127.17
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105.54 127.17
84.47 95.07
92.23 109.42
Seasonal Index
107.36
92.45
91.56
108.63
400
100
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106.89
107.66
96.83
98.54
95.23
106.38
104.31
90.77
105.54
95.07
107.93
93.35
99.8
104.51
111.3
82.38
89.84
113.56
107.15
90.81
Step 4 :Percentage of Actual toMoving average Values
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87.99
113.92
105.32
92.8
90.68
110.31
109.15
91.46
89.83
107.84
111.79
94.08
84.47
127.17
184.43
159.85
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Year Quarter Actual Production Seasonal Index/100
2000-01 1 19.2 1.07
2000-01 2 17.1 0.92
2000-01 3 22.1 0.92
2000-01 4 23.2 1.09
2001-02 1 21.4 1.07
2001-02 2 21.9 0.92
2001-02 3 21.7 0.92
2001-02 4 24.6 1.09
2002-03 1 24.5 1.07
2002-03 2 21.5 0.92
2002-03 3 25 0.92
2002-03 4 22.9 1.09
2003-04 1 26.2 1.07
2003-04 2 23 0.92
2003-04 3 25 0.92
2003-04 4 25.8 1.09
2004-05 1 26.6 1.07
2004-05 2 19.7 0.92
2004-05 3 22 0.92
2004-05 4 28.9 1.09
2005-06 1 28.1 1.07
2005-06 2 24.1 0.92
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2005-06 3 23.8 0.92
2005-06 4 31.4 1.09
2006-07 1 29.7 1.07
2006-07 2 26.6 0.92
2006-07 3 26.4 0.92
2006-07 4 32.5 1.09
2007-08 1 32.2 1.07
2007-08 2 26.9 0.92
2007-08 3 26.4 0.92
2007-08 4 31.8 1.09
2008-09 1 32.7 1.07
2008-09 2 27.2 0.92
2008-09 3 24.2 0.92
2008-09 4 31.3 1.09
2009-10 1 31.1 1.07
2009-10 2 20.7 0.92
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17.88
18.5
24.14
21.36
19.93
23.69
23.7
22.65
22.82
23.26
27.3
21.08
24.4
24.88
27.3
23.75
24.78
21.31
24.03
26.6
26.17
26.07
Deseasonlized ProductionActutal Production/Seasonal
Index
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25.99
28.91
27.66
28.77
28.83
29.92
29.99
29.1
28.83
29.27
30.46
29.42
26.43
28.81
28.97
22.39
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2005-06 3 25.99
2005-06 4 28.91
2006-07 1 27.66
2006-07 2 28.77
2006-07 3 28.83
2006-07 4 29.92
2007-08 1 29.99
2007-08 2 29.1
2007-08 3 28.83
2007-08 4 29.27
2008-09 1 30.46
2008-09 2 29.42
2008-09 3 26.43
2008-09 4 28.81
2009-10 1 28.97
2009-10 2 22.39
Column1 Y Y'
Err:508 Err:508
1 Least -Square Method -Linear
a) Slope of Trend Line Formulae
b=xY/x2
b) Intercept Formulae
a=Y'
c) Linear Equation Formulae
Y^=a+bx
d) Projections Year
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2009-10
2009-10
2010-11
2010-11
2010-11
2010-11
2011-12
2011-122011-12
2011-12
2
a) Formulae Y=an+cx2
x2Y=ax2+cx4
b=xY/x2
b) Values a
24.47
c) Equation Formulae
Y^=a+bx+cx2
d) Projections Year
2009-10
2009-10
2010-11
2010-11
2010-11
2010-11
2011-12
2011-12
2011-12
2011-12
Using Least - SqureMethod
-Non Linear
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x xY x2 x4 x2Y
-17.5 -37 -661.71 1369 1874161 24483.33
-16.5 -35 -647.41 1225 1500625 22659.29
-15.5 -33 -796.49 1089 1185921 26284.01
-14.5 -31 -662.05 961 923521 20523.66
-13.5 -29 -578.07 841 707281 16763.92
-12.5 -27 -639.62 729 531441 17269.74
-11.5 -25 -592.48 625 390625 14811.91
-10.5 -23 -520.84 529 279841 11979.38
-9.5 -21 -479.24 441 194481 10063.99
-8.5 -19 -441.88 361 130321 8395.75
-7.5 -17 -464.15 289 83521 7890.59
-6.5 -15 -316.21 225 50625 4743.09
-5.5 -13 -317.26 169 28561 4124.33
-4.5 -11 -273.67 121 14641 3010.42
-3.5 -9 -245.73 81 6561 2211.55
-2.5 -7 -166.25 49 2401 1163.75
-1.5 -5 -123.88 25 625 619.42
-0.5 -3 -63.93 9 81 191.79
-1 -24.03 1 1 24.03
0
1 26.6 1 1 26.6
0.5 3 78.52 9 81 235.57
1.5 5 130.35 25 625 651.74
Translating or Codingthe
Time Variable ,x=X-X'
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2.5 7 181.95 49 2401 1273.63
3.5 9 260.15 81 6561 2341.31
4.5 11 304.31 121 14641 3347.4
5.5 13 374.06 169 28561 4862.76
6.5 15 432.48 225 50625 6487.21
7.5 17 508.6 289 83521 8646.19
8.5 19 569.87 361 130321 10827.52
9.5 21 611.06 441 194481 12832.31
10.5 23 663.14 529 279841 15252.15
11.5 25 731.83 625 390625 18295.76
12.5 27 822.39 729 531441 22204.5
13.5 29 853.26 841 707281 24744.52
14.5 31 819.31 961 923521 25398.62
15.5 33 950.83 1089 1185921 31377.3
16.5 35 1013.9 1225 1500625 35486.42
17.5 37 828.49 1369 1874161 30654.05
Column2 Column3 xY x2 x4 x2y
Err:508 Err:509 Err:509 Err:508
Value
Err:509
Value
Err:508
Value
25.509+.1323x
Quarter x Y^
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3 18.5 27.96
4 19.5 28.09
1 20.5 28.22
2 21.5 28.35
3 22.5 28.49
4 23.5 28.62
1 24.5 28.75
2 25.5 28.883 26.5 29.01
4 27.5 29.15
b c
Err:509 0
Value
.467+.1323x+..002548x2
Quarter x Y^
3 18.5 27.79
4 19.5 28.02
1 20.5 28.25
2 21.5 28.49
3 22.5 28.73
4 23.5 28.98
1 24.5 29.24
2 25.5 29.5
3 26.5 29.76
4 27.5 30.03
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1) Linear
Year Quarter Deseasonlised Production, Y x
2000-01 1 17.88 -37
2000-01 2 18.5 -35
2000-01 3 24.14 -33
2000-01 4 21.36 -31
2001-02 1 19.93 -29
2001-02 2 23.69 -27
2001-02 3 23.7 -25
2001-02 4 22.65 -23
2002-03 1 22.82 -21
2002-03 2 23.26 -19
2002-03 3 27.3 -17
2002-03 4 21.08 -15
2003-04 1 24.4 -13
2003-04 2 24.88 -11
2003-04 3 27.3 -9
2003-04 4 23.75 -7
2004-05 1 24.78 -5
2004-05 2 21.31 -3
2004-05 3 24.03 -1
2004-05 4 26.6 1
2005-06 1 26.17 3
2005-06 2 26.07 5
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2001-02 1 19.93 -29
2001-02 2 23.69 -27
2001-02 3 23.7 -25
2001-02 4 22.65 -23
2002-03 1 22.82 -21
2002-03 2 23.26 -19
2002-03 3 27.3 -17
2002-03 4 21.08 -15
2003-04 1 24.4 -13
2003-04 2 24.88 -11
2003-04 3 27.3 -9
2003-04 4 23.75 -7
2004-05 1 24.78 -5
2004-05 2 21.31 -3
2004-05 3 24.03 -1
2004-05 4 26.6 1
2005-06 1 26.17 3
2005-06 2 26.07 5
2005-06 3 25.99 7
2005-06 4 28.91 9
2006-07 1 27.66 11
2006-07 2 28.77 13
2006-07 3 28.83 15
2006-07 4 29.92 17
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2007-08 1 29.99 19
2007-08 2 29.1 21
2007-08 3 28.83 23
2007-08 4 29.27 25
2008-09 1 30.46 27
2008-09 2 29.42 29
2008-09 3 26.43 31
2008-09 4 28.81 33
2009-10 1 28.97 35
2009-10 2 22.39 37
solute Deviation (Y-Y^)/n Err:508
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Y^ Y-Y^
20.61 -2.73
20.88 -2.38
21.14 2.99
21.41 -0.05
21.67 -1.74
21.94 1.75
22.2 1.5
22.47 0.18
22.73 0.09
23 0.26
23.26 4.04
23.52 -2.44
23.79 0.62
24.05 0.83
24.32 2.98
24.58 -0.83
24.85 -0.07
25.11 -3.8
25.38 -1.35
25.64 0.96
25.91 0.27
26.17 -0.1
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26.44 -0.44
26.7 2.21
26.96 0.7
27.23 1.54
27.49 1.34
27.76 2.16
28.02 1.97
28.29 0.81
28.55 0.28
28.82 0.46
29.08 1.38
29.35 0.08
29.61 -3.18
29.87 -1.06
30.14 -1.17
30.4 -8.01
Y^ Y-Y^
23.06 -5.18
22.96 -4.46
22.88 1.26
22.81 -1.46
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22.77 -2.84
22.75 0.94
22.75 0.95
22.77 -0.13
22.81 0.01
22.87 0.38
22.95 4.35
23.06 -1.98
23.18 1.23
23.32 1.56
23.48 3.82
23.67 0.08
23.87 0.91
24.09 -2.78
24.34 -0.31
24.6 2
24.89 1.29
25.19 0.88
25.52 0.47
25.86 3.04
26.23 1.43
26.62 2.16
27.02 1.81
27.45 2.47
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Year Quarter x
2000-01 1 17.88 -37
2000-01 2 18.5 -35
2000-01 3 24.14 -33
2000-01 4 21.36 -31
2001-02 1 19.93 -29
2001-02 2 23.69 -27
2001-02 3 23.7 -25
2001-02 4 22.65 -23
2002-03 1 22.82 -21
2002-03 2 23.26 -19
2002-03 3 27.3 -17
2002-03 4 21.08 -15
2003-04 1 24.4 -13
2003-04 2 24.88 -11
2003-04 3 27.3 -9
2003-04 4 23.75 -7
2004-05 1 24.78 -5
2004-05 2 21.31 -3
2004-05 3 24.03 -1
2004-05 4 26.6 1
2005-06 1 26.17 3
2005-06 2 26.07 5
DeseasonalisedProduction
Y
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2005-06 3 25.99 7
2005-06 4 28.91 9
2006-07 1 27.66 11
2006-07 2 28.77 13
2006-07 3 28.83 15
2006-07 4 29.92 17
2007-08 1 29.99 19
2007-08 2 29.1 21
2007-08 3 28.83 23
2007-08 4 29.27 25
2008-09 1 30.46 27
2008-09 2 29.42 29
2008-09 3 26.43 31
2008-09 4 28.81 33
2009-10 1 28.97 35
2009-10 2 22.39 37
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Y^=a+bx
20.61 86.76 -13.24
20.88 88.6 -11.4
21.14 114.16 14.16
21.41 99.76 -0.24
21.67 91.98 -8.02
21.94 107.99 7.99
22.2 106.75 6.75
22.47 100.8 0.8
22.73 100.4 0.4
23 101.14 1.14
23.26 117.38 17.38
23.52 89.61 -10.39
23.79 102.59 2.59
24.05 103.43 3.43
24.32 112.27 12.27
24.58 96.61 -3.39
24.85 99.72 -0.28
25.11 84.86 -15.14
25.38 94.68 -5.32
25.64 103.75 3.75
25.91 101.04 1.04
26.17 99.61 -0.39
Percentageof Trend(y/Y^)*100
Relative Cyclical Residual(Y-Y^)*100/Y^
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26.44 98.33 -1.67
26.7 108.26 8.26
26.96 102.6 2.6
27.23 105.67 5.67
27.49 104.87 4.87
27.76 107.78 7.78
28.02 107.03 7.03
28.29 102.87 2.87
28.55 100.98 0.98
28.82 101.58 1.58
29.08 104.74 4.74
29.35 100.26 0.26
29.61 89.26 -10.74
29.87 96.45 -3.55
30.14 96.11 -3.89
30.4 73.65 -26.35