Elections

Wilson Chapter 8

Let’s start with elections• Presidential vs Congressional races:

• Presidential races are more competitive but in either, the incumbent usually wins!!! Also presidential races are closer in the final voting

• Smaller turnout in congressional races means the candidate must appeal to the party voter!!

• Members of congress can do things the pres. Can’t such as claiming direct help for the people of the state such as job programs

• Members of congress can claim they are not part of the “Washington mess”

Elections

Coattails??

• Lots of incumbents get reelected to Congress for the last three reasons on the previous slide

• It used to be that the president of your party would almost automatically mean you’d get elected if he was popular – but not so much any more

How to be the President• First you have to be “mentioned” in the media

• It takes a lot of WORK!!!

• Come from various backgrounds including governors, senators, members of congress or war hero’s

• You need money, lots of money and a lot comes from PACs. Individuals can only give $2000 while a PAC can give $5000. To get matching funds you must get donations from 20 different states…confusing??

• It gets worse…

More Mr. or Mrs. President• You need a huge organization of fundraisers,

lawyers, secretaries, advertising, accountants and volunteers!!! You also need advisors and someone to write papers and speeches

• What about campaign strategy:

• Tone: positive or negative

• Theme: a simple appealing idea to repeat

• Timing: focus on primaries or the convention

• Target: who to aim at, those who change vote perhaps or certain groups like farmers…

How about Congress????• First, how many to elect?? It depends on the

size of the state, districts and their shapes

• Congress decided in 1911 to set the House at 435 seats and in 1929 to reapportion every 10 years…

• So some states lose seats while others gain

• District boundaries are always

redrawn to “cheat” the system –

called malapportionment

and gerrymandering

Okay, now let’s get elected• First you need signatures and then win the

“primary”

• Once elected you quickly learn to take care of your constituents by ensuring you do what they want

• Congressional members are trustees and delegates

• Delegates want to be reelected more than anything – and will do whatever it takes

• Trustees tend to look at bigger picture that has fewer implications for their home district

Qualifications for all the jobs• House of Representatives

25 years old – citizen for 7 years – live in state

• Senator

30 years old – citizen for 9 years – live in state

• President

35 years old – born in USA

Primary vs general campaigns• Primary elections choose a parties candidates

– sort of like the “playoffs”

• General elections pick the winners who will actually hold office – the “championship”

• Very different group of voters and helpers

• You must “rally the troops” for each primary – reaching for the extremes of your party then often back off in the general election

• People who get involved in primaries are the “hard core” political activists!!!

Campaign issues

•Position issues: opposing viewpoints usually along partisan lines (security, defense, abortion, gay marriage)

• Valence issues: viewpoints in which the public is united and rival candidates follow similar positions hoping to gain popular support - as if they were on the same side as the public (social security, welfare)

Role of the media• Name recognition from TV spots and even

news (low cost and “reliable”)

• Debates usually only advantage to challenger - performance is huge (Reagan, Kennedy)

• Careful not to “slip up” so rely on stock speeches and proven themes for applause

• Internet great for direct mail campaigns

• So worried about reelection that campaigning and government are linked together - candidates need media consultants to succeed

Show me the $$$$$$$$• Presidential primaries - public and private $$

with federal matching funds for donations over $250 per individual

• Presidential general elections all public money totaling $74 million in 2004

• Congressional elections are mostly private $$

• Up to $2000 per individual and $5000 for PACs

Rules about $$$$$$• Watergate and illegal donations in 1972

created 1974 Campaign Reform law and FEC

• Set limit then of $1000 per individual

• Guidelines for PACs

• Guidelines for public funding of elections

• Loopholes

1 Soft money is unlimited as long as it’s given to a political party

2 PACs can spend as much as they want as long as it’s not coordinated with a candidate

More recent changes• Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act of

2000 created 3 big changes!!!

1. Banned soft money to national parties from corporations and unions

2. Raised individual limit to $2000

3. Sharply restricted independent expenditures - groups can’t use their own money in an ad referring to a specific candidate 30 days before a primary and 60 days before a general election (positive or negative ads)

Court challenges and 527s• The previous act was immediately challenged

in court as a violation of free speech but the Supreme Court upheld the new laws

• Both parties have 527 organizations that can spend “soft money” like before and can spend their money on politics. – In 2009, a Federal Appeals Court ruled that 527s

have a First Amendment right to raise and spend freely to influence elections so long as they do not coordinate their activities with a candidate or a party

• 527s raised and spent $333 million in 2004

2010 527 SpendingRank Name

2010 Fundraising

2010 Expenditures

1 Republican Governors Association $117,129,464 $131,823,354

2 Democratic Governors Association $55,362,218 $64,708,253

3 American Federation of State, County, Municipal Employees

$47,068,586 $46,520,548

4 Republican State Leadership Committee $29,504,912 $29,911,967

5 American Solutions Winning the Future $28,233,447 $28,419,764

6 Service Employees International Union $14,923,663 $15,534,072

7 Citizens United $9,211,311 $9,185,145

8 EMILY'S List $9,001,964 $10,439,329

9 America Votes $8,883,561 $11,237,974

10 Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee

$8,684,721 $10,949,775

11 College Republican National Committee $8,389,738 $8,621,662

12 National Education Association $7,394,838 $7,503,113

13 Citizens for Strength and Security $7,127,814 $7,216,173

14 American Crossroads $6,700,312 $1,408,323

15 Democratic Attorneys General Association $6,365,202 $7,206,207

16 GOPAC $5,600,547 $5,210,328

17 International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers

$5,354,930 $6,685,747

18 ActBlue $4,994,165 $4,719,415

19 Laborers Union $4,578,278 $4,361,153

20 American Federation of State, County, Municipal Employees

$4,123,743 $4,121,846

Money and winning• Presidential candidates all get federal money

• During peacetime three key factors:

1. Party affiliation

2. Economy (called pocketbook voting)

3. Candidates character

• can’t forget VP candidates role,

religion, and the media

I WIN, I WIN

Who decides who wins???• Party affiliation? Republicans vote more than

Democrats and are more “wed” to their party

• More independents vote Republican

• Issues (economy) or strong principles (abortion) judging the incumbents' performance, and timing of elections (midterm or not)

• The campaign – negative or positive, core values and character, themes over detailed issues (single issue voters vote in blocks)

• A winning coalition – loyalty to a party, specific ethnic or religious voters, volume of voters

A little election history• Broad election trends:

1. 1876-1896 – very competitive among parties

2. 1896-1932 – Republicans dominant

3. 1932-1952 – Democrats dominant

4. 1952-now – changed hands frequently

• Public policy has remained pretty much the same and pace of change has been moderate thanks to the Constitution!!!

• Elections are important but tend to be voter judgments of the president and congress

• Political parties have less sway over voters

• In the US, strong shifts in public policies have usually paralleled realignments.

– One exception is 1964, when mass election of Democrats gave rise to programs such as Medicare and Medicaid, federal aid to education and local law enforcement, two dozen environmental and consumer-protection laws, the Voting Rights Act of 1965, and other massive, sweeping changes.

– In 1980, the voters brought in a much more conservative Congress, led by Reagan, who made cuts on many “excess” programs and tried to reduced spending.