The Recent Disconnect betweenThe Recent Disconnect between Political Elites

& the Mass Public

Roger C. Lowery, Ph.D.

Professor & former department chairProfessor & former department chair

Department of Public & International Affairs

University of North Carolina Wilmington

lowery@uncw.edu

www.uncw.edu/people/lowery

The political system

IN U S OU U SGINPUTS OUTPUTSGOVERNMENT

Executive• Executive

• Legislature

Mass public

Movements

Regulations

Statutes• Judiciary

MovementsInterest groupsPolitical parties

Statutes

Court decisions

F

Media

FEEDBACK LOOP

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Across U.S. history, political y, pmovements have most ft i doften organized as ‐‐

A. Political interest groups

B. Political parties

C. Both about equally

For most of U.S. history, we’ve had two major political parties because we’ve also had:because we ve also had:

A Two major ideologicalA. Two major ideological groups:  conservatives & liberalsliberals

B. Winner‐take‐all elections

C. Both

D. Neither

100GOVT. GUARANTEED

Political ideologies

80

90

GUEQUALITY

60

70

Issu

es

40

50

l Rig

hts

I

20

30Civ

il

10

20

00 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

LIBERTY 5

GOVT.GUARANTEED

ORDERCivil Liberties Issues

The father of the U.S.The father of the U.S. Constitution assumed that the best guarantee of good government was:government was:

A. Electing good leaders

B. Checks & balances on 

leadersleaders

Madison’s assumptions• Human nature

Of fl d b lf i h i–Often flawed by self‐interest, haste, passion, and short‐sightedness

–True of even the “best and the brightest” in both the mass public and the educated elites

• Best approximation of the common good–Bargaining and compromise between–Bargaining and compromise between competing interests

R l d id h l–Rarely does one side have a monopoly on wisdom and virtue 7

The recent disconnect

• Political polarization in elites:– inside government

– outside governmentoutside government

• Political cynicism in the public

8

Decline in the public’st t i ttrust in government

9http://electionstudies.org/nesguide/toptable/tab5a_5.htm

Major sources of elite jpolarization are recent h ichanges in ‐‐

A. Elections

B. Mass communications

hC. Both

D N ithD. Neither

Congressional safe seatsCongressional safe seats

• http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2012‐house/rticles/category/2012 house/

• http://www realclearpolitics com/epolls/2012• http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/2012_elections_senate_map.html

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Three other related sources of elite polarization are changes in ‐‐

1 Party coalitions1. Party coalitions

2 P liti l i2. Political careerism

3. Economic inequality

12

13Piketty and Saez, (2007). Income and Wage Inequality in the U.S.

http://g-mond.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/topincomes/#Home:

Polarization in Congress

14McCarty, Poole, & Rosenthal, Polarized America: The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches (2006)http://voteview.com/polarized_america.htm

15McCarty, Poole, & Rosenthal, Polarized America: The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches (2006)http://voteview.com/polarized_america.htm

Wealth gap betweenth bli & Cthe public & Congress

Sources: Center for Responsive Politics; US Census; Edward Wolff, Bard College.

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p ; ; , g

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/oss/oss2/2007/scf2007home.htmlhttp://www.opensecrets.org/pfds/overview.php?type=W&year=2009&filter=C

http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2010/11/congressional-members-personal-weal.html

10 richest members of Congress( ll 10 t d t t d B h’ t t f th i h)(all 10 voted to extend Bush’s tax cuts for the rich)

MEMBER MAX. EST. NET WORTH

Rep. Darrell Issa (R‐Calif.) $451.1 millionp ( ) $Rep. Jane Harman (D‐Calif.) $435.4 millionRep. Vern Buchanan (R‐Fla.) $366.2 million

$Sen. John Kerry (D‐Mass.) $294.9 millionRep. Jared Polis (D‐Colo.) $285.1 millionSen Mark Warner (D‐Va ) $283 1 millionSen. Mark Warner (D Va.) $283.1 millionSen. Herb Kohl (D‐Wisc.) $231.2 million

Rep. Michael McCaul (R‐Texas) $201.5 millionSen. Jay Rockefeller (D‐W.Va.) $136.2 millionSen. Dianne Feinstein (D‐Calif.) $108.1 million

COMBINED NET WORTH: $2 8 BILLION

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COMBINED NET WORTH: $2.8 BILLIONhttp://www.opensecrets.org/pfds/index.php

http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/111/senate/2/276?ref=politicshttp://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/111/house/2/647

Across U.S. history, which ypolitical party has always fa ored a strong federalfavored a strong federal government?g

A. Democratic PartyA. emocratic Party

B. Republication PartyB. Republication Party

C NeitherC. Neither

Polarizing issues& two‐party systems___________________________________

1. 1788 Founding

2 18242. 1824 Nation Building

3. 1860 Civil War & Reconstruction

4. 1896 Industrial Revolution

5. 1932 New Deal

6. 1968 De‐alignment

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g

7. 2004 ??

Since the 1930s, which ,party has gained more 

t ?supporters?

A. Democratic Party

B. Republican Party

C. Neither

Change in party support(1930s to present)(1930s to present)

21http://economicsofcontempt.blogspot.com/2008_06_01_archive.html

Compared to politicalCompared to political elites, the mass public is ‐‐, p

A. More polarized

B. Equally polarized

C. Less polarized

How polarized was the 2008presidential electorate?

Electoral-vote winner by state Popular-vote division by county

23http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/

Useful sourcesUseful sources

• Abramowitz The Disappearing Center: Engaged• Abramowitz, The Disappearing Center: Engaged Citizens, Polarization, and American Democracy

• Fiorina Culture War? The Myth of a Polarized• Fiorina, Culture War? The Myth of a Polarized America 

• Fiorina Disconnect: The Breakdown of• Fiorina, Disconnect: The Breakdown of Representation in American Politics

M & O t i It' E W Th It L k• Mann & Ornstein, It's Even Worse Than It Looks: How the American Constitutional System Collided With the New Politics of Extremismf

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