Elections

American Government: Continuity and Change9th Edition O’Connor and Sabato

Just a review…..Just a review…..

Patterns in Voter TurnoutPatterns in Voter Turnout

Turnout: the proportion of the voting-age public that votes

◦40% of the eligible adult population votes

◦25% are occasional voters

◦35% rarely vote

Patterns in Voter TurnoutPatterns in Voter Turnout

Education: Voters tend to be more educated Income: Consistent voters have higher incomesAge: Younger people vote lessGender: Women vote at the same rate or

slightly higher rate than menRace and Ethnicity:

◦ Whites vote more regularly than African Americans – related to income and educational differences in the two groups

◦ Hispanics vote less than African Americans◦ Have potential to wield much influence given

their increasing size Interest in politics: Those interested in politics

vote more

Why Is Voter Turnout So Why Is Voter Turnout So Low?Low?Too BusyDifficulty of RegistrationDifficulty of Absentee VotingNumber of ElectionsVoter AttitudesWeakened Influence of Political

Parties

Efforts to Improve Voter TurnoutEfforts to Improve Voter Turnout

Easier Registration and Absentee VotingMake Election Day a HolidayStrengthen PartiesOther suggestions

◦ Holding fewer elections◦ Proportional representation system for

congressional elections◦ Saturday or Sunday election day◦ Making voting mandatory◦ Tax credits for voting◦ Election weeks rather than election days◦ Internet voting – FRAUD CONCERNS

Patterns in Vote ChoicePatterns in Vote Choice Party Identification

◦ Most powerful predictor voter behavior◦ Ticket-splitting: voting for candidates of different parties for

various offices in the same election

Race and Ethnicity◦ Whites increased tendency to vote Republican◦ African Americans vote overwhelmingly for Democrats◦ Hispanics also tend to identify with and vote for Democrats

Women today more likely to support Democratic candidates◦ Gender gap varies by election

Poor vote more often for Democrats; wealthier for Republicans

Ideology related closely to vote choice Conservatives for Republicans Liberals for Democrats

Voting: What do you think?

https://www.youtube.com/

watch?v=ZG_IG-S1bfE

Assignment Assignment I want you to write 4 reflections of at least 5

sentences.  You'll be sharing these tomorrow with a small group:

1. Watch this clip (and maybe the next one) and write whether or not you agree with John Stossel.

2. Argue both sides for literacy tests being a requirement for voting - for and against.

3. Argue that the voting age should stay 18 and then argue that it should be raised to 21.

4. Ask a person to share their voting experience (or feelings about voting) with you and summarize it.

5. Come up with three suggestions to improve voter turnout.

Purposes of ElectionsPurposes of Elections

Regular free elections ◦ guarantee mass political action ◦ enable citizens to influence the actions of their

government

Popular election confers legitimacy on a government that can be achieved no other way

Regular elections also ensure that government is accountable to the people it serves

Purposes of ElectionsPurposes of ElectionsElectorate

◦Citizens eligible to vote

Mandate:◦A command, indicated by an

electorate’s voters, for the elected officials to carry out their platforms

◦Sometimes the claim of a mandate is suspect because voters are not so much endorsing one candidate as rejecting the other

Primary ElectionsPrimary ElectionsElection in which voters decide which of the

candidates within a party will represent the party in the general election.

Closed primary: a primary election in which only a party’s registered voters are eligible to vote

Open primary: a primary in which party members, independents, and sometimes members of the other party are allowed to vote

Blanket primary: a primary in which voters can cast votes back and forth between candidates from any party.

Primary voting can bring:Primary voting can bring: Crossover voting: participation in the

primary of a party with which the voter is not affiliated

Raiding: An organized attempt by voters of one party to influence the primary results of the other party

Runoff primary: a second primary election between the two candidates receiving the greatest number of votes in the first primary

General ElectionsGeneral Elections

General elections are those in which voters decide which candidates will actually fill elective public offices

Held at many levels

Contests between the candidates of opposing parties

Initiative, Referendum, and Initiative, Referendum, and RecallRecallInitiative

◦An election that allows citizens to propose legislation and submit it to the state electorate for popular vote

Referendum◦An election whereby the state

legislature submits proposed legislation to the state’s voters for approval

Recall◦Voters can remove an incumbent from

office by popular vote◦Are very rare

Presidential ElectionsPresidential ElectionsPrimary elections or caucuses are

used to elect national convention delegates which choose the nominee ◦Winner-take-all primary◦Proportional representation primary◦Caucus

Primaries v. CaucusesPrimaries v. Caucuses

Primaries Caucuses

◦More democratic

◦More representative

◦A rigorous test for the candidate

◦ Caucus participants more informed; more interactive and informative

◦ Unfair scheduling affects outcomes

◦ Frontloading (being first in the primary calendar) gives some primary states an advantage Frontloading is the

tendency to choose an early date on the primary schedule

2012 Primary Results2012 Primary Resultshttp://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries.html

The Party ConventionsThe Party ConventionsOut-of-power party holds its convention

first, usually in late July/August, followed in August/Sept by party holding the presidency

Conventions were decision-making body in the 19th century

Today the convention is fundamentally different ◦ Nominations settled well in advance of the

convention because of primaries

For a review on all things For a review on all things elections….elections….https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfrXIGclkLA

National Convention National Convention ScheduleSchedule

Day 1◦Keynote speaker

Day 2◦Announcement of party platform

National Convention National Convention ScheduleScheduleDay 3

◦Candidate nomination & speeches◦Balloting from the states (majority

rule)◦Winner (party nominee) names a VP

running mateDay 4

◦Confirm party nomination◦Nominee Acceptance speech◦Campaign Kickoff

2012 National 2012 National ConventionsConventions

Democrats Republicans

September 3 – 6, 2012

Charlotte, NC http://

www.demconvention.com/

August 27 – 30, 2012Tampa, FL www.gopconvention201

2.com

National Conventions: The News National Conventions: The News MediaMediaChanging nature of

coverage◦No prime time coverage on

some days◦Extending coverage on the

final day of each convention◦Reflects change in political

culture More interest in the candidates

themselves

◦Convention still generates much coverage for the party

The Electoral CollegeThe Electoral Collegehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9H3gvnN468 v=W9H3gvnN468 Representatives of each state

who cast the final ballots that actually elect a president

Total number of electors for each state equal to the number of senators and representatives that a state has in the U.S. Congress

District of Columbia is given 3 electoral votes (23rd Amendment)

The Electoral CollegeThe Electoral CollegeStates are “winner takes all”

◦Emphasis is placed on heavily populated states

◦Maine and Nebraska are the exceptions and use proportional voting

Vote of Electors◦First Monday after first Wednesday in

December◦Counted before joint session of

Congress in January by the Vice President.

The Electoral CollegeThe Electoral CollegeResult of compromise between:

◦ Selection by Congress versus direct popular election

Three essentials to understanding the design of the Electoral College:◦ Constructed to work without political parties◦ Constructed to cover both the nominating and

electing phases of presidential selection◦ Constructed to produce a nonpartisan

president

The Electoral College in the 19The Electoral College in the 19thth CenturyCentury

12th Amendment (1804)◦ Attempt to remedy the confusion between the

selection of vice presidents and presidents that emerged in the election of 1800

◦ Provided for separate elections for each office, with each elector having only one vote to cast for each

◦ In event of a tie, the election still went to the House Top three candidates go to House Each state House delegation casts one vote

The Electoral College in the Twentieth The Electoral College in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuriesand Twenty-First Centuries

Electoral college crises◦ At times a candidate can win the Electoral

College vote without having won the popular vote

Reapportionment matters◦ Representation of states in the Electoral

College is altered every ten years to reflect population shifts

◦ Party in power can work to earn more districts as new lines are drawn.

Congressional ElectionsCongressional ElectionsVery different from presidential elections

◦ Lesser known candidates, more difficulty getting media attention

Incumbency Advantage◦ Better known◦ Fundraising is easier◦ Can use office resources (franking privilege,

staff, travel, etc)◦ Can cite work already done in Washington

Congressional ElectionsCongressional ElectionsWhen incumbents lose it is generally due to:◦RedistrictingGerrymandering

◦Scandals◦Presidential Coattails

Midterm Congressional ElectionsMidterm Congressional Elections

Election takes place in the middle of a presidential term◦President’s party usually loses seats

in midterms◦Tendency for voters to punish the

president’s party more severely in the sixth year of an eight year presidency - 6th year itch Retrospective voting Senate elections less inclined to the

6th year itch

Reforming the Electoral Reforming the Electoral ProcessProcessFocus on the Electoral CollegeOther areas

◦Nomination Regional primaries

◦Campaign Finance Reform◦Online Voting◦Voting by Mail◦Modernizing the Ballot

Electoral College 2008Electoral College 2008

Obama 69,456,897 365McCain 59,534,814 173

2008 Presidential Election2008 Presidential ElectionVoting Age

Population: 231,229,580

Turnout: 132,618,580

%: 56.8%

Obama raised $532,946,511 and spent $513,557,218

McCain raised $379,006,485 and spent $346,666,422

Electoral Projections 2012