Elected InstitutionsUnelected InstitutionsCivil Society Presidency DRS (Military Intelligence) ANP...

Elected Institutions Unelected Institutions Civil Society

Presidency DRS

(Military Intelligence)

ANP(People’s Armed

Forces)

Governing Coalition

(FLN, MSP, RND)

Legal Opposition

UGTA(Official public sector

trade union)

Independent Trade Unions

Council of Ministers

Parliament

Private Sector/ Private

Individuals

Public Sector

Algerian Succession – Key Power Groups

Human Rights

Groups

Media

Outlawed Opposition

Local Government

Cabinet

Veterans & Children of Deceased

Primary Decision-

making and influencing

power

Advisory power

Protest power

Constituents of the CNCD protest movement - evidence that the

protest leaders possess nuisance value at best

With a million members, the pro-government UGTA is a crucial hinge group whose

participation in protests would be a major sign of the

power balance shifting

The strong influence of civil war veterans is

evidenced by the ministerial post devoted

to the group

Religious groups?

Algerian Succession – Summary of Key Individuals

President Abdel Aziz Bouteflika

Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia – Head RND Party

Vice-PM Noureddine Yazid Zerhouni

Defence M. Gen (Rt) Abdelmalek Guenaizia

Defence Sec Gen Maj Gen Ahmed Senhadji *

Interior M Dahou Ould Kablia

Foreign M Mourad Medelci

Justice M Tayeb Belaiz

Finance M Karim Djoudi

Energy M Youcef Yousfi

Public Works M Amar Ghoul - MSP

M. Of State Abdelaziz Belkhadem

Veterans M Mohammed Cherif Abbes

Bouteflika Loyalist

MedieneLoyalist

Inconclusive/Unaligned

Upward Trajectory

Neutral Trajectory

DownwardTrajectory

Saeed Bouteflika ^

Abdur Bouteflika ^

Lt Gen Mohamed “Toufik” Mediene

C-Espionage Maj Gen Ahmed Kherfi

Army Security Maj Gen Mhenna Djebbar

External Security Maj Gen Rachid Laalali

C-o-Staff Lt Gen Ahmed Gaid Saleh

Ground Force Maj Gen Ahcen Tafer

Air Force Maj Gen Abdelkader Lounes

Navy Maj Gen Malik Naceb

Air Defence Maj Gen Mohamed Baaziz

GOVERNMENT STATE SECURITY BUSINESS/PRIVATE

OPPOSITION/ TRADE UNIONS

DRS** ANP*

FORMER GOVERNMENT/MILITARY

Head DRC Said Sadi

18 MONTH TRAJECTORY

FACTION LOYALTY

Special Forces Brig Gen Rachid Saoudi

POLICE***/SURETE***

Gendarmerie Maj Gen Ahmed Boustila

Surete Nationale Maj Gen Abdelghani Hamel

* Reports to Defence Minister ** Nominal reporting line to Army Chief *** Reports to Interior Minister ^ Brother to President ~ Daughter of deceased Deputy Head of DRS

Fmr Energy M Chakib Khelil

Amal Lamari ~Pharmalliance SARL

Fmr Telecoms M Bessalah

Fmr Commerce M Djaboub

Education M Boubekeur Ben Bouzid

Nourredine CherouatiCEO Sonatrach

Mohamed MezianeFmr CEO Sonatrach

Fmr Head DRS General Mohamed Betchine

Head MSP Bouguerra Soultani

Head Workers Party Louis a Hanoune

Algerian Succession – Key State Security Individuals


Bouteflika Loyalist

MedieneLoyalist


Upward Trajectory

Neutral Trajectory

DownwardTrajectory










STATE SECURITY

DRS**

ANP*

18 MONTH TRAJECTORY

FACTION LOYALTY


POLICE***/SURETE***Air Defence Maj Gen

Mohamed Baaziz


* Reports to Defence Minister ** Nominal reporting line to Army Chief *** Reports to Interior Minister ^ Brother to President Ϯ Reports to Defence Minister













Algerian Succession – Key Government Individuals

Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia

Vice-PM Noureddine Yazid Zerhouni

Defence M. Abdelmalek Guenaizia

Defence Sec Gen Maj Gen Ahmed Senhadji Ϯ

Interior M Dahou Ould Kablia





Water M Abdelmalek Sellal



Bouteflika Loyalist

MedieneLoyalist


Upward Trajectory

Neutral Trajectory

DownwardTrajectory

GOVERNMENT 18 MONTH TRAJECTORY

FACTION LOYALTY

* Reports to Defence Minister ** Nominal reporting line to Army Chief *** Reports to Interior Minister ^ Brother to President Ϯ Reports to Defence Minister

Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia

Demoted from interior ministry in 2010 reshuffle. Seen as being old and having mishandled the Tounsi murder has fallen out of favour with Bouteflika

Defence M. Abdelmalek Guenaizia

Defence Sec Gen Maj Gen Ahmed Senhadji Ϯ

Promoted from deputy position in 2010 reshuffle. MALG leader since 1990, close ally to Bouteflika and Zerhouni. Ties to DRS see him as an effective balance candidate. Possible succession candidate





Water M Abdelmalek Sellal



Algerian Succession – Presidency


Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia Vice-PM Noureddine Yazid Zerhouni Saeed Bouteflika Abdulla Bouteflika

Factional MembersOfficial Structure

Bouteflika Loyalist

MedieneLoyalist


Algerian Succession – DRS

General Mohamed “Toufik” Mediene



Bouteflika Loyalist

MedieneLoyalist


Algerian Succession – ANP

General Mohamed “Toufik” Mediene



Bouteflika Loyalist

MedieneLoyalist


• Economic Interests– Private, Public, Countries, Individuals, FDI, major projects, Algerian local cos and ownership

• AQIM and connections to DRS• Regionalism - Tribal issues – Berber, Touareg etc - http://themoornextdoor.wordpress.com/2010/03/07/addendum-on-regionalism/ • Western Sahara, relationship to Morocco• Migration

• Political Timeline

Algerian Succession – Notes

http://themoornextdoor.wordpress.com/2010/03/07/addendum-on-regionalism/

Elected InstitutionsUnelected InstitutionsCivil Society Presidency DRS (Military Intelligence) ANP...

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