Eindhoven University of Technology MASTER the design and ...
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Eindhoven University of Technology
MASTER
NXE volume organisationthe design and evaluation of an organisation structure for the volume production of ASMLsnew NXE machine type
Schepens, A.J.A.
Award date:2009
Link to publication
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NXE volume organisation
The design and evaluation of an organisation structure for the volume
production of ASMLs new NXE machine type
Appendices
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Appendix I: Historical learning curve The following charts indicate a number of things. The red line is the cycle time norm as it was set over time, the black line is
a 84% learning curve and the bars indicate the realized cycle times for the test phase (SQ) of machines that were produced.
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As can be seen on these graphs, the cycle time variates dramatically over time, so it is hard to obtain a precise learning
curve. Moreover the graphs only relate a part of the production proces. (SQ)
The following charts shows a study of the cycle time for all Twinscan types and PAS types, which shows that for a particular
generation of machine (of which ASML only has had 2 – the PAS and the Twinscan – and is now only starting on the third
NXE) the learning curve can also be loosely applied. So learning from one type of machine to another does take place.
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Appendix II: Historical B-times
Weibull
Historical B-times are approximately weibull distributed. A large sample of B-times over a one year period was obtained and
tested with goodness-of-fit tests against a number of distributions. The weibull distribution was the distribution that most
closely resembled the historical B-times as can be seen in the two figures below.
The weibull has the unique property to resemble an exponential distribution when k is smaller then 1, which is the case here,
which explains why the characteristic weibull figure is absent in the figures above. As can be seen in the second figure –
where the historical times are plotted in a histogram against a fitted weibull distribution – the two resemble each other pretty
closely. The actual goodness of fit test however does reject the notion of a fit. This goodness of fit test can be seen in f igure
below.
Density Trace for B-time
B-time (hrs)
de
nsity
0 20 40 60 80 100
0
0,01
0,02
0,03
0,04
Histogram for B-time
B-time (seconds)
fre
qu
en
cy
-2 8 18 28 38(X 10000)
0
1
2
3
4(X 1000)
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The reason for this rejection can be found in the first couple of rows of the chi square test however. B-times are not
automatically kept by SAP, but are registered by assemblers and testers individuals. Since they do not exactly track the time
it took them to solve a certain problem, this might influence the mentioned times. Especially the half an hour and whole
hours numbers are filled in a lot. This gives a skewed image of the trouble times even though it seems highly unlikely that 45
minute or 15 minute intervals do not occur. Consequently, the goodness of fit test results were ignored and the weibull
distribution was used to model B-times.
Ratio’s
The ASML standard ratios of 1:1 and 1:3 of A-time to B-time for test and assembly have also been verified with real data.
This can be seen in the table below.
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Main Group Description A-time
(hr) A-time (day)
CT-SAP
Cumm. A-time (w)
History (Factor)
Corrected!
FASY Pick and Prepare 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1
FASY 1 Assembly level 1 7,5 0,5 0,1 2,2 2,3
FASY 2 Assembly level 2 7,5 0,5 0,2 4,3 2,3
FASY 3 Assembly level 3 7,5 0,5 0,2 0,9 2,3
FASY 4 Assembly level 4 7,5 0,5 0,3 1,8 2,3
FASY 5 Assembly level 5 7,5 0,5 0,4 2,1 2,3
FASY 6 Assembly level 6 7,5 0,5 0,5 3,2 2,3
FASY 7 Assembly level 7 7,5 0,5 0,5 2,9 2,3
FASY 8 Assembly level 8 7,5 0,5 0,6 4,0 2,3
FASY 9 Assembly level 9 7,5 0,5 0,7 - 2,3
FASY FASY 67,5 4,9 0,7
FASY Init@FASY 9,9 0,7 3,9 0,8 8,0 2,3
FASY Transsf_FASY 4,4 0,3 1,0 0,9 1,8 1,4
FASY Total FASY 14,3 1,0 0,9 Yes
MAQ Configuration 67,2 4,9 1,0 1,6 1,2 1,4
MAQ WS/WH test0 0,0 0,0 3,1 1,6 2,9 4,4
MAQ WH test0 0,1 0,0 3,1 1,6 2,9 4,4
MAQ IH test0 0,6 0,0 3,1 1,6 2,9 4,4
MAQ WS test0 1,8 0,1 3,1 1,6 2,9 4,4
MAQ RS/RH test0 5,7 0,4 1,1 1,6 2,6 1,6
MAQ WS/WH Queue 0,0 0,0 3,5 1,6 6,8 4,9
MAQ WS BFC Queue 4,4 0,3 3,5 1,7 6,8 4,9
MAQ WS SPM Queue 15,3 1,1 3,5 1,8 6,8 4,9
MAQ WS Full MS Queue 13,1 1,0 3,5 2,0 6,8 4,9
WH to WS Queue 4,4 0,3 3,5 2,0 6,8 4,9
MAQ WS Dry Performance Queue 6,5 0,5 3,5 2,1 6,8 4,9
MAQ AA Coarse Queue 4,8 0,3 2,9 2,1 2,9 4,0
MAQ Level Sensor Queue 4,4 0,3 1,7 2,2 5,6 2,4
MAQ Koop/Upgrade 0,0 0,0 0,0 2,2 0,0 0,0
MAQ Lens Calibration test0 1,0 0,1 3,2 2,2 4,7 4,5
MAQ Illumination test0 5,2 0,4 1,7 2,3 3,1 2,4
MAQ RS/RH queue (to zero position) 13,7 1,0 0,7 2,4 1,7 1,0
MAQ Lens Calibration Queue 3,6 0,3 1,2 2,4 1,7 1,7
MAQ WS IH Wet Immersion Test/Queue 0,0 0,0 3,2 2,4 3,6 4,5
MAQ Immersion Wet Queue 8,4 0,6 3,2 2,5 3,6 4,5
Immersion Perf. Queue1 5,0 0,4 3,2 2,6 3,6 4,5
MAQ WS Wet Performance Queue 3,4 0,2 3,2 2,6 3,6 4,5
MAQ IS coarse / Lens Center Queue 5,2 0,4 4,8 2,7 7,5 6,7
MAQ Ilumination Coarse Queue1 1,5 0,1 1,0 2,7 1,8 1,4
MAQ RS/RH Queue to Lenscentre 2,9 0,2 1,2 2,7 2,8 1,7
MAQ Illumination coarse queue 2 3,6 0,3 0,8 2,7 2,3 1,1
MAQ Ilias Coarse Queue 1,8 0,1 1,1 2,8 3,6 1,5
MAQ Illumination Fine Queue 1 24,7 1,8 1,5 3,0 1,5 2,1
MAQ Illumination Fine manual 1,6 0,1 2,3 3,0 4,3 3,2
MAQ Illumination Fine Queue 2 13,1 1,0 3,8 3,2 4,9 5,3
MAQ Upgrade Slot 0,0 0,0 1,0 3,2 0,0 1,4
MAQ Transfer MAQ to next Department 4,4 0,3 1,0 3,2 0,1 1,4
MAQ 227,1 16,6 3,2 Yes
SQ Dynamic Performance 5,9 0,4 6,0 3,3 8,7 8,5
SQ C&T system performance test 0,0 0,0 2,0 3,3 2,7 2,8
SQ F&T Performance 2,8 0,2 2,0 3,3 2,7 2,8
SQ Immersion Perf. Queue2 5,7 0,4 2,0 3,4 2,7 2,8
SQ AA/IS/ILIAS fine queue 6,2 0,4 3,9 3,4 4,5 5,5
SQ Metrology Fine Setup 0,0 0,0 1,7 3,4 2,3 2,4
SQ Metrology SPM 4,6 0,3 1,7 3,5 2,3 2,4
SQ Metrology Grid 21,6 1,6 1,7 3,7 2,3 2,4
SQ Metrology Lens 7,9 0,6 1,7 3,8 2,3 2,4
SQ Metrology Fine 7,5 0,5 1,7 3,9 2,3 2,4
SQ Prepare System Qualification 1,6 0,1 4,8 3,9 4,4 6,7
SQ Stability day 1 3,8 0,3 4,0 3,9 3,4 5,6
SQ Stability day 2 3,4 0,2 1,0 4,0 0,7 1,4
SQ Stability day 3 3,8 0,3 1,4 4,0 2,2 2,0
SQ ATP +CSR 26,8 2,0 3 4,3 12,4 4,2
SQ finish FAT: QA process 0,0 0,0 0 4,3 1,0 1,0
SQ 101,4 7,4 4,3 Yes
Pack and Ship Pack and Ship 28,8 2,1
3 4,6
4,2
Pack and Ship 28,8 2,1 4,6
Yes
The rightmost column depicts a corrected factor that indicates a factor with which the A-time must be multiplicated to obtain
the cycle time. As can be seen the average of fasy is close to two (indicating a ratio of 1:1) and the test factor averages
around 4 (translating into a 1:3 ratio).
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Appendix III: Forecast of NXE demand figures
The following chart indicates the demand pattern as currently (june 2009) forecasted by ASML.
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Appendix IV: Training times of employees gebaseerd op werkinhoud building blocks + training kosten per functie
The training times of employees is based on their workcontent. In the first table below is the average workcontent per production
process shown. The training times are loosely related on these, with a factor for the specific production phases that is based on the
difficulty and particular type of work these phases entail.
production phase average Workcontent (hr) Training time
(yrs)
Fasy BOT 328,00 0,40
Fasy BOT MAQ 137,50 0,60
Fasy MID 152,00 0,20
Fasy MID MAQ 42,00 0,40
Fasy TOP 64,00 0,10
Fasy TOP MAQ 72,00 0,20
REIR 72,00 0,30
MF 240,00 0,50
WS 178,00 0,50
WS Test rig 110,00 0,50
MID 528,00 1,00
MID test rig 72,00 0,30
SQ 118,00 1,00
SIE 361,50 1,50 The total training times per function then are based on the table above. The training times per function are repeated below.
GENORMALISEERD
Org 1 Training
times Org 2 Training
times Org 3 Training
times
WS build 0,5 WS build 0,5 WS build + fasy bot 0,9
WS test rig 0,5 WS test rig + bot MAQ 0,6 WS test rig + bot MAQ 0,6
REIR build 0,3 REIR build 0,3 REIR build + fasy bot 0,7
MF build 0,5 MF build 0,5 MF build + fasy bot 0,9
MID build 1,0 MID build 1,0 MID build + fasy mid 1,2
MID test rig 0,3 MID test rig + mid MAQ 0,4 MID test rig + mid MAQ 0,4
Fasy bot+mid&top 0,7 Fasy bot+mid&top 0,7 Top fasy + top MAQ+SQ 1,3
bot + mid + top MAQ + SQ 2,2 top MAQ + SQ 1,2 SIE 1,5
SIE 1,5 SIE 1,5
SOM 7,50 6,70 7,50
MAX 2,20 1,50 1,50
average 0,8 0,7 0,9 These training times have been related to the average yearly pay figure for employees, which is 60 000 euro. The costs that are
incurred for training each new employee are shown below.
Training costs
Org 1 Training
times Org 2 Training
times Org 3 Training
times
WS build 0,5 € 30.000,00 WS build 0,5 € 30.000,00 WS build + fasy bot 0,9 € 54.000,00
WS test rig 0,5 € 30.000,00 WS test rig + bot MAQ 0,6 € 36.000,00 WS test rig + bot MAQ 0,6 € 36.000,00
REIR build 0,3 € 18.000,00 REIR build 0,3 € 18.000,00 REIR build + fasy bot 0,7 € 42.000,00
MF build 0,5 € 30.000,00 MF build 0,5 € 30.000,00 MF build + fasy bot 0,9 € 54.000,00
MID build 1,0 € 60.000,00 MID build 1,0 € 60.000,00 MID build + fasy mid 1,2 € 72.000,00
MID test rig 0,3 € 18.000,00 MID test rig + mid MAQ 0,4 € 24.000,00 MID test rig + mid MAQ 0,4 € 24.000,00
Fasy bot+mid&top 0,7 € 42.000,00 Fasy bot+mid&top 0,7 € 42.000,00 Top fasy + top MAQ + SQ 1,3 € 78.000,00
bot + mid + top MAQ + SQ 2,2 € 132.000,00 top MAQ + SQ 1,2 € 72.000,00
SIE 1,5 € 90.000,00 SIE 1,5 € 90.000,00 SIE 1,5 € 90.000,00
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Appendix V: Simulation assumptions
Process
1. The assembly and test productions operations have been aggregated to large process blocks in the simulation. 2. Optimal production sequence for NXE3100 is not in accordance with desired bottom, mid, top build sequence
because of technical (engineering) reasons. For the NXE3300 it is assumed that the desired bottom, mid, top build sequence is realized.
3. There will be a test rig for the waferstage on which approximately 50% of the tests of the bottom MAQ can be performed. As a consequence 50% of bottom MAQ tests will perform without errors.
4. There will be a test rig for the MID module on which approximately 75% of the tests of the mid MAQ can be performed. As a consequence 75% of mid MAQ tests will perform without errors.
5. The Source will be installed by Cymer personnel, which is not accounted for in the model. Source costs are assumed to have the personnel costs in them.
6. Test phases will take on average 4 times the A-time and assembly phases will take on average 2 times the A-time. 7. Test variation is modelled with the formulea: WEIB(2.1705,0.671684) * A-time + A-time. The first part (before the +
sign) generates the B-time for a specific produciton step. WEIB(2.1705,0.671684) generates a normalised weibull distribution with a mean of 3 and coefficient of variance of 1.83 (which is equal to the coefficient of variance of historical B-times)
8. Assembly variation is modelled with the formulea: WEIB(0.723499,0.671684) * A-time + A-time. The first part (before the + sign) generates the B-time for a specific produciton step. WEIB(1.447,0.671684) generates a normalised weibull distribution with a mean of 1 en coeficient of variance of 1.83 (which is equal to the coefficient of variance of historical B-times)
9. The TOP module is treated as being outsourced. It also always arrives in time. Costs will be incurred as soon as the top fasy phase starts.
Time
10. Time is modeled as being continous. Thereby losing the work schedule flexibility ASML in reality has. (resource utilization will therefore be worse as in reality)
11. The working schedule will entail 2 shifts on monday through friday (so 16 hrs a day) and 8 hrs on saturday and sunday. The number of (working) hours per year then equals 52 weeks * 96 hrs per week= 4992 hrs
Demand
12. Production starts of machines are spread out over the year. (for example 5 machines per year means a NXE machine start date every 4992/5 = 998.4 hours)
13. There are three different demand scenario’s: High, mid and low demand. These are official NXE demand forecast figures over the years 2011 to 2016, which can be seen in the table to the right.
Resources
14. POB, ILL en MID can be made by the same resources (function). 15. MF can be made by the same resources (function) 16. Work center facility capacities (cabins, tools, etc) are not included. It is assumed that there is
always enough capacity. 17. The number of resources that the MID module production steps require have been simplified. The number of
production step would have been to big otherwise. These changes do not impact cycle time and resource requirements.
18. Vacuum work center is not included in simulation. It is assumed that there is always enough capacity. 19. Training times of new employees remain the same over the duration of the simulation. (even though average CT
decreases and the likelihood of better work instructions is high) Training times are similar as in volume production of current machines.
20. Hiring is done with perfect knowledge in the simulation. This means that the CRP process is perfect in the simulation. Although this is not a realistic assumption it doesn’t matter for the choice between organizations, because the CRP process wont change with organizations. It will cause total costs to probably be lower then in reality.
21. No hiring costs are incurred for TLs, GLs, VIS and production planners. These are usually people from within the organization who are ready to do their jobs immediately because of their previous experience and so require no training.
22. No firing is done in the simulation. Since all demand scenarios increase year over year, this should not be a problem. Introducing firing can possibly increase hiring and firing costs by firing personnel that is needed one or 2 months later. Because of the high hiring costs (high training times), it is realistic to use this assumption. (i.e. almost no firing will be done anyway in all scenario’s, i.e. they are all upturn scenario’s)
23. Coordination need is captured in ratios of managers and support personnel to actual workers (assemblers and testers). This obviously differs between organisations. The ratios that are used in the simulations can be found below and are based on current Twinscan production ratios.
Organisation 1
Organisation 2
Organisation 3
Operator / TL 12 13 11
TL / GL 6 5 7
Testers / VIS 1,89 2 2
TL / pp 2 1.8 1.6
LOW MID HIGH
2011 10 10 10
2012 15 15 10
2013 25 15 10
2014 45 25 15
2015 55 45 20
2016 60 55 20
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Learning curve 24. CT variability will decrease with more experience (i.e. with more machines built). 25. The base learning curve of the NXE3300 is modeled as following [8]:
Where, Un = the cycle time of the n-th machine V = the cycle time of the first machine N = the machine number S-1 = an exponent (0 < S < 1) Where different S’s are chosen for the different organisations such that organisation 1, 2 and 3 have a respective learning curve of 84%, 83,2% and 82,4%. (which is the percentage of cycle time with every doubling of the number of machines)
Costs
26. Personnel costs are 60 000 € per person per year. Since 96 hours a week are assumed. One “man” in the simulation equals 96 / 40 = 2.4 man in reality. This means that 1 simulation hour costs: (60 000 ∙ 2.4) / 4992 = 28,85 € per man.
27. Material costs are assumed to be similar as for the NXE3100. Only large material costs have been included. (above approximately 20 000 euros)
28. Material costs are incurred at the beginning of WC production. 29. Internal rate of return of ASML is 11% per year. This will be used for calculating the investment costs in WIP (holding
cost of goods). Since simulation time runs in hours, (see assumption 11) holding cost per hour is 11% / 4992 = 0.0022 % per hour. Compounding of interest has not been accounted for because of simulation software constraints. This is not seen as a serious shortcoming due to the short time intervals that apply.
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Appendix VI: Simulation data
The amount of data that was obtained from the simulation was quite large and resulted in almost 450 mb worth of excel files.
This data was essential agregated in to tables that summarize the result. These tables will be given below. As there were 3
demand scenarios, the data will be presented per demand scenario.
High demand scenario
Cycle time
Org 3
CT Cabin CT
Average St dev Count 0.90 conf Average St dev Count 0.90 conf
year 1 1456 443 1000 18 1190 406 1000 17
year 2 936 212 1500 7 742 205 1500 7
year 3 757 163 2500 4 587 157 2500 4
year 4 642 135 4500 3 488 132 4500 3
year 5 562 115 5500 2 420 112 5500 2
year 6 512 102 6000 2 375 99 6000 2
Org 2
CT Cabin CT
Average St dev Count 0.90 conf Average St dev Count 0.90 conf
year 1 1521 455 1000 19 1245 422 1000 17
year 2 998 227 1500 8 796 219 1500 7
year 3 822 189 2500 5 644 184 2500 5
year 4 696 147 4500 3 536 144 4500 3
year 5 614 128 5500 2 464 125 5500 2
year 6 561 116 6000 2 418 113 6000 2
Org 1
CT Cabin CT
Average St dev Count 0.90 conf Average St dev Count 0.90 conf
year 1 1580 450 1000 18 1293 417 1000 17
year 2 1074 259 1500 9 862 247 1500 8
year 3 879 201 2500 5 689 193 2500 5
year 4 751 163 4500 3 582 158 4500 3
year 5 671 147 5500 3 514 143 5500 2
year 6 616 138 6000 2 466 134 6000 2 2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 -40 -69
Org3-1 -97 -127
Org2-1 -42 -73
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Costs
Personnel cost
Org 3
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 5581 113265 337 43
Year 2 6863 314022 560 72
Year 3 7513 230882 481 62
Year 4 8908 135684 368 48
Year 5 9791 149043 386 50
Year 6 10161 181278 426 55
Year 7 10295 239443 489 63
Org 2
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 5474 79900 283 36
Year 2 6607 189170 435 56
Year 3 7213 138247 372 48
Year 4 8636 192782 439 57
Year 5 9612 171272 414 53
Year 6 10100 193209 440 57
Year 7 10257 210639 459 59
Org 1
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 5442 92331 304 39
Year 2 6607 232463 482 62
Year 3 7308 148618 386 50
Year 4 8850 132675 364 47
Year 5 9940 164773 406 52
Year 6 10483 239161 489 63
Year 7 10686 281192 530 68
2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 627 -280
Org3-1 440 -498
Org2-1 227 -632
Indirect personnel cost
Org 3
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 1889 5704 76 10
Year 2 2275 17954 134 17
Year 3 2451 15696 125 16
Year 4 2890 10458 102 13
Year 5 3167 14601 121 16
Year 6 3280 18684 137 18
Year 7 3325 22342 149 19
Org 2
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 1725 3857 62 8
Year 2 2058 12938 114 15
Year 3 2229 12695 113 15
Year 4 2662 14381 120 15
Year 5 2959 17756 133 17
Year 6 3108 14465 120 16
Year 7 3155 12898 114 15
Org 1
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 1759 7187 85 11
Year 2 2118 23433 153 20
Year 3 2338 15800 126 16
Year 4 2840 12699 113 15
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Year 5 3164 17069 131 17
Year 6 3314 22538 150 19
Year 7 3368 26678 163 21
2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 320 75
Org3-1 191 -84
Org2-1 -14 -274
Hiring cost
Org 3
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 2389 40205 201 26
Year 2 115 16538 129 17
Year 3 219 24285 156 20
Year 4 655 47456 218 28
Year 5 186 17494 132 17
Year 6 76 8435 92 12
Year 7 1 81 9 1
Org 2
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 2060 32009 179 23
Year 2 117 17208 131 17
Year 3 253 25884 161 21
Year 4 594 55448 235 30
Year 5 221 32997 182 23
Year 6 114 14849 122 16
Year 7 0 0 0 0
Org 1
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 2263 49073 222 29
Year 2 134 21765 148 19
Year 3 308 37824 194 25
Year 4 684 42635 206 27
Year 5 295 33326 183 24
Year 6 151 19572 140 18
Year 7 0 0 0 0
2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 82 -1
Org3-1 20 -75
Org2-1 -24 -112
Holding cost
Org 3
Average Count Variance Std dev 0.90 conf
year 1 733 1000 52296 229 9,3 year 2 468 1500 12173 110 3,7 year 3 377 2500 7151 85 2,2 year 4 317 4500 4970 70 1,4 year 5 276 5500 3572 60 1,0 year 6 250 6000 2829 53 0,9
Org 2
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NXE volume organisation
15
Average Count Variance Std dev 0.90 conf
year 1 768 1000 55327 235 9,6 year 2 501 1500 14057 119 3,9 year 3 410 2500 9226 96 2,5 year 4 346 4500 5963 77 1,5 year 5 303 5500 4300 66 1,1 year 6 275 6000 3596 60 1,0
Org 1
Average Count Variance Std dev 0.90 conf
year 1 799 1000 53828 232 9,5 year 2 539 1500 17970 134 4,5 year 3 440 2500 10684 103 2,7 year 4 374 4500 7106 84 1,6 year 5 333 5500 5739 76 1,3 year 6 303 6000 4978 71 1,2
2-paired sample analysis
90% max average min
Org3-2 -21 -28 -35
Org3-1 -50 -58 -65
Org2-1 -22 -30 -37
Personnel
Assemblers
Org 3
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 80 75 9 1
Year 2 86 79 9 1
Year 3 95 53 7 1
Year 4 113 41 6 1
Year 5 120 39 6 1
Year 6 122 55 7 1
Year 7 122 55 7 1
Org 2
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 76 48 7 1
Year 2 80 45 7 1
Year 3 88 30 5 1
Year 4 107 56 8 1
Year 5 114 46 7 1
Year 6 118 46 7 1
Year 7 118 46 7 1
Org 1
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 77 53 7 1
Year 2 81 50 7 1
Year 3 91 32 6 1
Year 4 110 40 6 1
Year 5 119 48 7 1
Year 6 124 58 8 1
Year 7 124 58 8 1
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NXE volume organisation
16
2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 13 -3
Org3-1 10 -6
Org2-1 3 -10
Testers
Org 3
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 30 9 3 0
Year 2 31 8 3 0
Year 3 35 6 2 0
Year 4 45 8 3 0
Year 5 47 10 3 0
Year 6 49 10 3 0
Year 7 49 10 3 0
Org 2
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 31 10 3 0
Year 2 32 8 3 0
Year 3 37 8 3 0
Year 4 47 12 3 0
Year 5 51 11 3 0
Year 6 52 7 3 0
Year 7 52 7 3 0
Org 1
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 29 10 3 0
Year 2 32 13 4 0
Year 3 37 11 3 0
Year 4 48 11 3 0
Year 5 52 12 3 0
Year 6 54 12 3 0
Year 7 54 12 3 0
2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 1 -5
Org3-1 1 -6
Org2-1 3 -4
Support personnel
Org 3
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 37 6 2 0,32
Year 2 39 5 2 0,30
Year 3 42 5 2 0,30
Year 4 51 5 2 0,27
Year 5 54 6 2 0,31
Year 6 55 6 2 0,32
Year 7 55 6 2 0,32
Org 2
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 34 4 2 0,26
Year 2 35 4 2 0,25
Year 3 39 5 2 0,30
Year 4 47 6 3 0,32
Year 5 51 5 2 0,30
Year 6 53 4 2 0,24
Year 7 53 4 2 0,24
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NXE volume organisation
17
Org 1
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 34 8 3 0,36
Year 2 36 7 3 0,35
Year 3 41 5 2 0,29
Year 4 51 5 2 0,30
Year 5 54 6 2 0,32
Year 6 56 7 3 0,35
Year 7 56 7 3 0,35
2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 6 1
Org3-1 3 -2
Org2-1 0 -5
Summary per organisation
Org 1
#
personeel Cost # machines Cost/machine
Year 1 141 15.190 € 10 1.519 €
Year 2 149 16.945 € 15 1.130 €
Year 3 168 20.952 € 25 838 €
Year 4 209 29.203 € 45 649 €
Year 5 225 31.699 € 55 576 €
Year 6 234 32.122 € 60 535 €
Year 7 234 14.055 €
160.166 € +
Org 2
#
personeel Cost # machines Cost/machine
Year 1 141 14.877 € 10 1.488 €
Year 2 147 16.297 € 15 1.086 €
Year 3 164 19.934 € 25 797 €
Year 4 200 27.478 € 45 611 €
Year 5 216 29.438 € 55 535 €
Year 6 223 29.828 € 60 497 €
Year 7 223 13.412 €
151.264 € +
Org 3
#
personeel Cost # machines Cost/machine
Year 1 147 14.796 € 10 1.480 €
Year 2 156 16.277 € 15 1.085 €
Year 3 172 19.596 € 25 784 €
Year 4 209 26.731 € 45 594 €
Year 5 221 28.343 € 55 515 €
Year 6 227 28.540 € 60 476 €
Year 7 227 13.620 €
147.904 € +
Mid demand scenario
Cycle time
Org 3
CT Cabin CT
Average St dev Count 0.95 conf Average St dev Count 0.90 conf
year 1 1435 414 1000 17 1178 379 1000 15
year 2 934 218 1500 7 743 212 1500 7
year 3 783 175 1500 6 612 170 1500 6
year 4 688 145 2500 4 529 141 2500 4
year 5 612 128 4500 2 462 124 4500 2
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NXE volume organisation
18
year 6 544 110 5500 2 404 107 5500 2
Org 2
CT Cabin CT
Average St dev Count 0.95 conf Average St dev Count 0.90 conf
year 1 1507 427 1000 17 1236 398 1000 16
year 2 992 236 1500 8 790 223 1500 7
year 3 841 181 1500 6 662 176 1500 6
year 4 748 156 2500 4 581 153 2500 4
year 5 667 145 4500 3 511 141 4500 3
year 6 597 126 5500 2 449 122 5500 2
Org 1
CT Cabin CT
Average St dev Count 0.95 conf Average St dev Count 0.90 conf
year 1 1577 438 1000 18 1298 412 1000 17
year 2 1066 239 1500 8 851 229 1500 8
year 3 913 213 1500 7 722 207 1500 7
year 4 812 180 2500 5 635 176 2500 5
year 5 724 159 4500 3 560 155 4500 3
year 6 653 144 5500 2 497 140 5500 2 2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 -38 -75
Org3-1 -97 -139
Org2-1 -44 -79
Costs Personnel cost
Org 3
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 5569 104625 323 42
Year 2 6800 254666 505 65
Year 3 7102 301079 549 71
Year 4 7391 251451 501 65
Year 5 8728 169412 412 53
Year 6 9719 162606 403 52
Year 7 9940 177198 421 54
Org 2
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 5461 85670 293 38
Year 2 6561 200925 448 58
Year 3 6786 221748 471 61
Year 4 7098 164204 405 52
Year 5 8387 154953 394 51
Year 6 9393 208549 457 59
Year 7 9701 187134 433 56
Org 1
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 5469 82393 287 37
Year 2 6576 215031 464 60
Year 3 6867 221038 470 61
Year 4 7312 151008 389 50
Year 5 8686 145138 381 49
Year 6 9758 141879 377 49
Year 7 10078 224522 474 61
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NXE volume organisation
19
2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 709 -177
Org3-1 547 -404
Org2-1 259 -647
Indirect personnel cost
Org 3
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 1882 6709 82 11
Year 2 2255 18245 135 17
Year 3 2317 19026 138 18
Year 4 2403 16448 128 17
Year 5 2824 14894 122 16
Year 6 3121 13417 116 15
Year 7 3192 16196 127 16
Org 2
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 1720 6495 81 10
Year 2 2051 14709 121 16
Year 3 2108 14850 122 16
Year 4 2190 11802 109 14
Year 5 2588 11017 105 14
Year 6 2883 15715 125 16
Year 7 2991 18068 134 17
Org 1
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 1767 9987 100 13
Year 2 2114 23966 155 20
Year 3 2191 25782 161 21
Year 4 2330 18719 137 18
Year 5 2780 12577 112 14
Year 6 3107 10119 101 13
Year 7 3203 22802 151 19
2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 327 91
Org3-1 202 -59
Org2-1 -13 -262
Hiring cost
Org 3
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 2373 31003 176 23
Year 2 112 15241 123 16
Year 3 39 6762 82 11
Year 4 116 11834 109 14
Year 5 681 62733 250 32
Year 6 209 18975 138 18
Year 7 0 0 0 0
Org 2
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 2056 29267 171 22
Year 2 115 14045 119 15
Year 3 39 5568 75 10
Year 4 142 14526 121 16
Year 5 601 45810 214 28
Year 6 229 28168 168 22
Year 7 1 52 7 1
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NXE volume organisation
20
Org 1
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 2231 37699 194 25
Year 2 135 23216 152 20
Year 3 62 9500 97 13
Year 4 242 23816 154 20
Year 5 651 48328 220 28
Year 6 298 42808 207 27
Year 7 3 570 24 3
2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 85 14
Org3-1 29 -56
Org2-1 -20 -106
Holding cost
Org 3
Average Count Variance Std dev 0.90 conf
year 1 724 1000 45835 214 8,7
year 2 468 1500 12294 111 3,7
year 3 390 1500 8168 90 3,0
year 4 342 2500 5713 76 2,0
year 5 302 4500 4435 67 1,3
year 6 267 5500 3228 57 1,0
Org 2
Average Count Variance Std dev 0.90 conf
year 1 761 1000 49480 222 9,1
year 2 497 1500 14421 120 4,0
year 3 420 1500 8262 91 3,0
year 4 373 2500 6794 82 2,1
year 5 331 4500 5789 76 1,5
year 6 293 5500 4108 64 1,1
Org 1
Average Count Variance Std dev 0.90 conf
year 1 796 1000 51443 227 9,3
year 2 535 1500 15292 124 4,1
year 3 457 1500 12186 110 3,7
year 4 405 2500 8835 94 2,4
year 5 360 4500 6892 83 1,6
year 6 323 5500 5634 75 1,3
2-paired sample analysis
90% max average min
Org3-2 -20 -29 -38
Org3-1 -50 -61 -71
Org2-1 -23 -31 -40
Personnel
Assemblers
Org 3
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 80 58 8 1
Year 2 86 65 8 1
Year 3 88 68 8 1
Year 4 93 58 8 1
Year 5 112 44 7 1
Year 6 119 42 6 1
Year 7 119 42 6 1
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NXE volume organisation
21
Org 2
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 76 44 7 1
Year 2 80 46 7 1
Year 3 81 48 7 1
Year 4 86 42 6 1
Year 5 105 52 7 1
Year 6 112 40 6 1
Year 7 112 40 6 1
Org 1
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 77 46 7 1
Year 2 81 53 7 1
Year 3 84 50 7 1
Year 4 91 31 6 1
Year 5 107 55 7 1
Year 6 117 48 7 1
Year 7 117 48 7 1
2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 14 -1
Org3-1 11 -4
Org2-1 4 -10
Testers
Org 3
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 29 11 3 0
Year 2 31 9 3 0
Year 3 31 8 3 0
Year 4 34 6 3 0
Year 5 43 10 3 0
Year 6 47 10 3 0
Year 7 47 10 3 0
Org 2
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 30 11 3 0
Year 2 32 8 3 0
Year 3 33 7 3 0
Year 4 35 5 2 0
Year 5 45 9 3 0
Year 6 50 8 3 0
Year 7 50 8 3 0
Org 1
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 29 13 4 0
Year 2 32 13 4 0
Year 3 32 12 4 0
Year 4 36 11 3 0
Year 5 47 9 3 0
Year 6 51 11 3 0
Year 7 51 11 3 0
2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 1 -5
Org3-1 1 -6
Org2-1 2 -3
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NXE volume organisation
22
Support personnel
Org 3
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 37 6 3 0,32
Year 2 38 6 2 0,30
Year 3 39 5 2 0,30
Year 4 41 6 2 0,30
Year 5 50 5 2 0,29
Year 6 53 4 2 0,27
Year 7 53 4 2 0,27
Org 2
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 33 5 2 0,28
Year 2 35 4 2 0,27
Year 3 35 4 2 0,26
Year 4 37 4 2 0,25
Year 5 46 5 2 0,27
Year 6 50 5 2 0,29
Year 7 50 5 2 0,29
Org 1
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 34 8 3 0,37
Year 2 36 7 3 0,34
Year 3 37 7 3 0,35
Year 4 40 6 2 0,31
Year 5 50 4 2 0,27
Year 6 53 6 2 0,32
Year 7 53 6 3 0,32
2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 6 1
Org3-1 3 -1
Org2-1 0 -5
Summary per organisation
Org 1
# personeel Cost # machines Cost/machine
Year 1 141
15.197 € 10
1.520 €
Year 2 149
16.845 € 15
1.123 €
Year 3 152
15.969 € 15
1.065 €
Year 4 167
20.012 € 25
800 €
Year 5 204
28.317 € 45
629 €
Year 6 221
30.920 € 55
562 €
Year 7 221
13.284 €
140.543 € +
Org 2
# personeel Cost # machines Cost/machine
Year 1 140
14.794 € 10
1.479 €
Year 2 147
16.186 € 15
1.079 €
Year 3 149
15.227 € 15
1.015 €
Year 4 159
18.751 € 25
750 €
Year 5 196
26.484 € 45
589 €
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NXE volume organisation
23
Year 6 211
28.633 € 55
521 €
Year 7 212
12.693 €
132.769 € +
Org 3
# personeel Cost # machines Cost/machine
Year 1 146
14.696 € 10
1.470 €
Year 2 155
16.181 € 15
1.079 €
Year 3 158
15.310 € 15
1.021 €
Year 4 168
18.453 € 25
738 €
Year 5 206
25.817 € 45
574 €
Year 6 219
27.713 € 55
504 €
Year 7 219
13.132 €
131.300 € +
Low demand scenario
Cycle time
Org 3
CT Cabin CT
Average St dev Count 0.95 conf Average St dev Count 0.90 conf
year 1 1449 438 1000 18 1180 402 1000 16
year 2 975 235 1000 10 776 229 1000 9
year 3 836 186 1000 8 656 181 1000 7
year 4 753 153 1500 5 586 149 1500 5
year 5 681 143 2000 4 522 138 2000 4
year 6 634 131 2000 4 481 127 2000 4
Org 2
CT Cabin CT
Average St dev Count 0.95 conf Average St dev Count 0.90 conf
year 1 1525 458 1000 19 1246 419 1000 17
year 2 1041 237 1000 10 833 230 1000 9
year 3 895 206 1000 8 706 201 1000 8
year 4 810 173 1500 6 635 170 1500 6
year 5 743 158 2000 5 576 155 2000 4
year 6 692 150 2000 4 533 145 2000 4
Org 1
CT Cabin CT
Average St dev Count 0.95 conf Average St dev Count 0.90 conf
year 1 1606 491 1000 20 1312 450 1000 18
year 2 1103 266 1000 11 882 255 1000 10
year 3 963 224 1000 9 764 218 1000 9
year 4 869 186 1500 6 684 180 1500 6
year 5 800 179 2000 5 623 173 2000 5
year 6 745 168 2000 5 578 164 2000 5
2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 -39 -85
Org3-1 -97 -149
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NXE volume organisation
24
Org2-1 -36 -86
Costs Personnel cost
Org 3
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 5563 99890 316 41
Year 2 6644 288426 537 69
Year 3 6724 290199 539 69
Year 4 6833 280180 529 68
Year 5 7031 289040 538 69
Year 6 7269 240247 490 63
Year 7 7332 235515 485 63
Org 2
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 5482 86366 294 38
Year 2 6438 250944 501 65
Year 3 6467 245863 496 64
Year 4 6540 232937 483 62
Year 5 6745 217258 466 60
Year 6 6932 210033 458 59
Year 7 7014 223556 473 61
Org 1
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 5459 103598 322 42
Year 2 6480 304179 552 71
Year 3 6516 303713 551 71
Year 4 6592 308563 555 72
Year 5 6839 263591 513 66
Year 6 7120 206925 455 59
Year 7 7194 209299 457 59
2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 895 -388
Org3-1 909 -567
Org2-1 592 -758
Indirect personnel cost
Org 3
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 1885 6282 79 10
Year 2 2220 21247 146 19
Year 3 2237 19685 140 18
Year 4 2259 17344 132 17
Year 5 2303 18933 138 18
Year 6 2348 18538 136 18
Year 7 2360 19427 139 18
Org 2
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 1734 4505 67 9
Year 2 2021 16130 127 16
Year 3 2031 15496 124 16
Year 4 2047 14040 118 15
Year 5 2092 14392 120 15
Year 6 2140 15212 123 16
Year 7 2160 15021 123 16
Org 1
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 1766 8188 90 12
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NXE volume organisation
25
Year 2 2079 28966 170 22
Year 3 2089 27058 164 21
Year 4 2108 26486 163 21
Year 5 2175 25650 160 21
Year 6 2254 22767 151 19
Year 7 2278 22479 150 19
2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 361 35
Org3-1 310 -64
Org2-1 118 -268
Hiring cost
Org 3
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 2365 34815 187 24
Year 2 23 3844 62 8
Year 3 7 1027 32 4
Year 4 38 6607 81 10
Year 5 77 11036 105 14
Year 6 38 6225 79 10
Year 7 0 0 0 0
Org 2
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 2066 36738 192 25
Year 2 14 1818 43 6
Year 3 8 1586 40 5
Year 4 45 9312 96 12
Year 5 83 11373 107 14
Year 6 57 8394 92 12
Year 7 0 0 0 0
Org 1
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 2267 60860 247 32
Year 2 27 5795 76 10
Year 3 6 941 31 4
Year 4 48 6921 83 11
Year 5 113 13268 115 15
Year 6 62 9479 97 13
Year 7 0 0 0 0
2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 82 -3
Org3-1 50 -42
Org2-1 7 -78
Holding cost
Org 3
Average Count Variance Std dev 0.90 conf
year 1 733 1000 51928 228 9,3
year 2 486 1000 12486 112 4,6
year 3 418 1000 9484 97 4,0
year 4 375 1500 6250 79 2,6
year 5 338 2000 5614 75 2,2
year 6 313 2000 4555 67 1,9
Org 2
Average Count Variance Std dev 0.90 conf
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NXE volume organisation
26
year 1 770 1000 55966 237 9,7
year 2 522 1000 14951 122 5,0
year 3 448 1000 11162 106 4,3
year 4 404 1500 7922 89 3,0
year 5 370 2000 6855 83 2,4
year 6 343 2000 5938 77 2,2
Org 1
Average Count Variance Std dev 0.90 conf
year 1 809 1000 63657 252 10,3
year 2 553 1000 19044 138 5,6
year 3 482 1000 13582 117 4,8
year 4 434 1500 9409 97 3,2
year 5 398 2000 8682 93 2,7
year 6 371 2000 7707 88 2,5
2-paired sample analysis
90% max average min
Org3-2 -21 -32 -43
Org3-1 -49 -63 -76
Org2-1 -18 -31 -43
Personnel
Assemblers
Org 3
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 80 54 7 1
Year 2 82 61 8 1
Year 3 82 60 8 1
Year 4 85 68 8 1
Year 5 88 55 7 1
Year 6 91 46 7 1
Year 7 91 46 7 1
Org 2
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 76 46 7 1
Year 2 77 45 7 1
Year 3 77 46 7 1
Year 4 79 50 7 1
Year 5 82 48 7 1
Year 6 84 52 7 1
Year 7 84 52 7 1
Org 1
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 77 61 8 1
Year 2 78 60 8 1
Year 3 79 63 8 1
Year 4 80 67 8 1
Year 5 85 47 7 1
Year 6 87 44 7 1
Year 7 87 44 7 1
2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 16 -4
Org3-1 15 -8
Org2-1 8 -13
Testers
Org 3
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NXE volume organisation
27
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 30 10 3 0
Year 2 30 9 3 0
Year 3 30 9 3 0
Year 4 30 8 3 0
Year 5 31 8 3 0
Year 6 32 8 3 0
Year 7 32 8 3 0
Org 2
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 31 10 3 0
Year 2 31 10 3 0
Year 3 31 9 3 0
Year 4 31 9 3 0
Year 5 33 8 3 0
Year 6 33 7 3 0
Year 7 33 7 3 0
Org 1
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 30 12 3 0
Year 2 30 11 3 0
Year 3 30 11 3 0
Year 4 31 11 3 0
Year 5 32 11 3 0
Year 6 33 10 3 0
Year 7 33 10 3 0
2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 2 -5
Org3-1 3 -5
Org2-1 5 -4
Support personnel
Org 3
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 37 6 3 0,32
Year 2 37 6 2 0,31
Year 3 37 5 2 0,30
Year 4 38 5 2 0,29
Year 5 39 5 2 0,30
Year 6 39 5 2 0,30
Year 7 39 5 2 0,30
Org 2
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 34 5 2 0,28
Year 2 34 5 2 0,27
Year 3 34 4 2 0,26
Year 4 34 4 2 0,26
Year 5 35 4 2 0,27
Year 6 36 4 2 0,26
Year 7 36 4 2 0,26
Org 1
Average Var Std dev 0.90 conf
Year 1 35 8 3 0,37
Year 2 35 8 3 0,36
Year 3 35 8 3 0,36
Year 4 35 8 3 0,36
Year 5 37 7 3 0,35
Year 6 38 6 2 0,32
Year 7 38 6 2 0,32
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NXE volume organisation
28
2-paired sample analysis
90% max min
Org3-2 6 0
Org3-1 5 -1
Org2-1 2 -5
Summary per organisation
Org 1
# personeel Cost # machines Cost/machine
Year 1 142 15.316 € 10
1.532 €
Year 2 143 14.118 € 10
1.412 €
Year 3 144 13.434 € 10
1.343 €
Year 4 146 15.264 € 15
1.018 €
Year 5 154 17.098 € 20
855 €
Year 6 158 16.847 € 20
842 €
Year 7 158 9.472 €
101.550 € +
Org 2
# personeel Cost # machines Cost/machine
Year 1 140 14.919 € 10
1.492 €
Year 2 141 13.695 € 10
1.369 €
Year 3 142 12.981 € 10
1.298 €
Year 4 144 14.687 € 15
979 €
Year 5 149 16.319 € 20
816 €
Year 6 153 15.991 € 20
800 €
Year 7 153 9.173 €
97.765 € +
Org 3
# personeel Cost # machines Cost/machine
Year 1 147 14.775 € 10
1.477 €
Year 2 149 13.742 € 10
1.374 €
Year 3 150 13.144 € 10
1.314 €
Year 4 153 14.749 € 15
983 €
Year 5 158 16.170 € 20
808 €
Year 6 162 15.914 € 20
796 €
Year 7 162 9.692 €
98.186 € +
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Appendix VII: Orthogonal array experiment The orthogonal experiment that was used for the sensitivity analysis, used an orthogal array that balances out all parameters. The array
can be found below. For an example of the balance in parameters, a closer look at parameter 3 for example can be taken. All
parametes can be set at low mid and high levels (1, 2 and 3 in the table). A high level (3) of parameter 3 occurs exactly three times and
when the settings of the other parameters is examined, these are always 1, 2 and 3 for all three occurences of parameter 3 high. When
the effects of these three runs are averaged and devided over the overall average (all nine runs), one obtains the sole effect of
parameter 3 high, because all other parameters have been balanced out. The same exercise can be done for all other parameters and
all settings (low, mid and high).
Parameter (right) / Run
(down) 1 2 3 4
1 1 1 1 1
2 1 2 2 2
3 1 3 3 3
4 2 1 2 3
5 2 2 3 1
6 2 3 1 2
7 3 1 3 2
8 3 2 1 3
9 3 3 2 1
Parameter 1, 2, 3 and 4 in this array represent the input criteria (scalability, process improvement, coordination need, controllability) in the case of this study. The low, mid and high settings for these criteria correspond to -10% and +10% deviations. The actual numbers can be seen in the table below.
1 (low) 2 (mid) 3 (high)
1 scalability(training costs) -10% 0% 10%
2
process improvement (learning curve 86% 84% 82%
3
coordination need (support personnel ratio’s)
TL/production 10,8 12 13,2
GL/TL 5,4 6 6,6
VIS/testers 1,701 1,89 2,079
pp/tl 1,71 1,9 2,09
4 controllability
shape scale shape scale shape scale
test 0,671684 1,95345 0,671684 2,1705 0,671684 2,38755
assy 0,671684 0,651149 0,671684 0,723499 0,671684 0,795848
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Appendix VIII: Verification & Validation The verification of a simulation model is the check on a correct translation from model to simulation. Validation is a check of
reality to the model. Validation is difficult to do in this case given the fact that actual production of NXE machines has only
recently started and as such there is no data with which to compare the simulation results. Consequently, only verification
has been conducted. Verification was made difficult by the fact that some interactions in the simulation resulted in different
numbers as were calculated. Of course, a simulation would not have been needed if this were not the case. Where these
differences occur, an explanation of why these numbers are different will be given.
First the theoretical cycle time of the different work centers and fasy have been calculated and compared with simulation
cycle times.
reir ws mf mid fasy sq pre pack&pack Total CT
Theoretical 72 242 272 439 946 472 180 1870
Simulation 69 240 284 449 1163 460 180 2087
Deviation 4,17% 0,83% -
4,41% -
2,28% -
22,94% 2,54% 0,00% -11,60%
Theoretical cycle times have been calculated based on a shortest path calculation. As can be seen the deviations are in
general quite small, except for the fasy part. Al modules come together at fasy, which is the reason for its large deviation.
Module have to wait for each other before fasy can continue. This causes delays which can also be expected in reality. A
shortest path calculation however does not take this in to account. It was checked whether this really was the explanation of
the deviation, by dropping all restrictions on fasy (i.e. all modules were present) which resulted in a simulation cycle time that
was close to the theoretical cycle time.
The learning curve was verified next. The table below contains a calculation of the individual work centers cycle time
corrected for an average cycle time reducement that is in accordance with the number of machines that are started each
year.
Year reir ws mf mid fasy sq pre
pack&pack # machines average CT reduction
Simulation cycle time
Theoretical cycle time
2011 year 1 46 161 190 301 779 308 121 10 0,67 1521 1398
2012 year 2 34 118 139 220 570 225 88 15 0,49 998 1023
2013 year 3 28 96 114 180 465 184 72 25 0,40 822 835
2014 year 4 23 82 97 153 395 156 61 45 0,34 696 710
2015 year 5 21 72 85 135 349 138 54 55 0,30 614 626
2016 year 6 19 65 77 121 314 124 49 60 0,27 561 563
As can be seen, the theoretical cycle time starts lower than the simulation cycle time, but ends up pretty close to the actual
simulation time. The supposed explanation for this is the fact that approximately half the machines that are built in simulation
are actually finished in the next year. The average cycle time is then still higher for the simulation then for the theoretical
calculation. This number decreases over the course of the simulation because cycle time also reduces. This has the effect
that relatively more machines are started and finished in the same year causing theoretical and simulation cycle times to
converge.
The next table demonstrates the number of manpower resources that are expected. These theoretical numbers were
attained by dividing the theoretical work load per year (due to machines) by the number of yearly work hours an employee
has.
Year reir ws mf mid fasy sq pre pack&pack theoretical
total Simulation total Capacity utilization
2011 year 1 2 2 2 3 16 3 2 31 107 0,29
2012 year 2 2 2 2 3 18 4 2 33 113 0,29
2013 year 3 2 3 3 5 24 5 2 43 125 0,35
2014 year 4 2 4 5 7 37 7 3 65 153 0,42
2015 year 5 2 4 5 8 40 8 3 70 165 0,42
2016 year 6 2 4 5 8 39 8 3 68 171 0,40
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As can be seen quite large differences are obtained between simulation numbers and theoretical numbers. What has to be
kept in mind however is the fact that resource utilization tends to be very low at ASML, which is especially so during the early
years, because a number of steps require 4 or 2 employees to work on a machine simultaneously. When the number of
machines are still very small, the chance of having no work is quite large which causes relatively large spikes incapacity
demand to occur, resulting in a low utilization. As larger production volumes are demanded, the law of large numbers kicks
in which tends to average out the workload and increase utilization. Another thing has to be kept in mind with these small
numbers, which is the fact that the simulation tends to overestimate the number of employees needed, because it was a
demand that no starvation of processes due to resource shortages could occur. This causes the simulation to increase the
number of employees to a higher then perhaps necessary level. These utilization rates then are more dramatic then is to be
expected, but still conform of what could be expected.
The last table contains the number of cabins that are needed. This is an important variable for ASML, because factory workspace is
very expensive. This capacity is fixed on the short term and building more capacity takes years, so a careful forecast for how many
cabins are needed is important. The theoretical number of cabins is calculated by multiplying the number of machines per year with the
average cabin cycle time and dividing this by the total available hours in a year. The average number of simulation cabins is remarkable
similar to the theoretical cabins. What needs to be noted however is that the actual required number of cabins has a standard deviation
of approximately 1, due to the variability of cycle times. This means that the total cabins required to satisfy cabin demand at any given
moment needs to be 2 or so more.
Year Cabin
CT #
machines
# theoretical
cabins
# simulation
cabins
2011 year 1 1190 10 2 2
2012 year 2 742 15 2 3
2013 year 3 587 25 3 3
2014 year 4 488 45 4 4
2015 year 5 420 55 5 5
2016 year 6 375 60 5 5
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Appendix IX: Criteria for ASML
Van Aken
Van Aken [3] uses 7 criteria, which he describes in a short but clear manner.
1. Strategy
His first criteria is a strategic fit with the organisational structure. He mentions that a common held belief is that structure
must follow strategy. He argues that this is not always true and that sometimes the reverse can also be true, when an unique
structure might enable an organisation to compete in a certain market. In that case, strategy follows structure. In general
however it is true that structure must follow from a well thought out strategy. A fit between strategy and structure would then
be a criteria for a good organisation.
2. Situation
His second criteria relates to an organisation and its relationship with it’s environment. With environment is meant the lega l,
financial, government, suppliers and customers it is influenced by in one way or another. This environment is characterized
by its complexity and its turbulence. Complexity requires specialization in an organisation and turbulence might require an
organisation to decrease the level of formalization and centralization in order to be flexible. In this sense an organisation can
also be judged on the fit it has with its environment.
3. Internal controllability
The internal controllability of an organisation relates to the extent to which an organisation is able to control it’s internal
processes. Van Aken argues that the extent to which a certain design is able to do this depends largely on a relative simple
and clear distribution of tasks, responsibilities and authority.
4. Efficiency
The efficiency of a structure depends on the output divided by the amount of resources that is required for the output. This
depends on the specialization in certain areas that enables more efficient working and the amount of coordination that is
required to enable cooperation between specialists. Coordination requires time and money and so decreases efficiency. Not
enough coordination however causes miscommunication and waste and is also costly. A good balance is required.
5. Responsivity
The timeliness to which employees and managers in the primary process of an organisation are able to adapt to changes
and disturbances in their work is called responsivity.
6. Quality of output
The output of an organisation is either a product or a service. The extent to which a customer is satisfied by a service or
product depends on the extent to which his needs are filled. This means that an organisation has to deliver the right kind of
service / product on the one hand and on the other hand, that that service or product is of good quality.
7. Quality of labor
An organisation structure can be more or less considerate to employees needs. Employees needs are dependent a.o. on the
extent to which they have challenging, non-monotonous and diverse work and the extent to which they have interaction with
other people.
Jägers
Jägers [10] uses 4 criteria. His book is written around a framework for designing organisations. Consequently, he devotes an
entire chapter to these criteria.
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1. Efficiency
His first criteria relates to the efficiency with which an organisation operates. Efficiency is defined as the extent to which an
organisation is able to accomplish the same output with varying amounts of resources.
2. Flexibility
Jägers makes a distinction between strategic and operational flexibility. Strategic flexibility is needed when the requirements
an environment demands of an organisation are both numerous and constantly changing. Operational flexibility is needed
when requirements are numerous (thus complex) but do not change (a lot). The overall requirements don’t change, but
specific demands can require a rescheduling of organisation demands. For example, a production order can be canceled or
suddenly rescheduled. Some flexibility is still needed in that case, but not to the extent as for strategic flexibility.
3. Satisfaction
Satisfaction is the extent to which organisation members’ needs are met by working in the organisation. Needs are employee
dependant and the extent to which these needs need to be satisfied is employee dependant as well.
4. External need satisfaction
An organisation is depended on a number of other organisations and external individuals for its survival. These organisations
and individuals have needs and expectations from an organisation. The extent to which these needs and expectations are
met is thus important for an organisations survival. Typical external organisations and persons include government,
shareholders, (potential) employees, customers, suppliers, etc.
Keuning
Keuning [11] has only one paragraph devoted to his criteria. Moreover these are stated in very general terms so it can be
hard to determine the precise definition he has in mind. However the terms are similar to those used by the other authors, so
the precise meaning can be guessed from their definitions.
1. Efficiency
The efficiency of the organisation . Specifically with respect to the economy, technology and resources.
2. Satisfaction
The satisfaction of employees. (fit to people)
3. Needs satisfaction
The satisfaction of external institutions and persons. Specifically the clients and company stakeholders. (fit to clients and
stakeholders)
4. Survival
The (long term) survival of the organisation. (fit to strategy and to market structure)
De Sitter
De Sitter [17] is the only author that specifically focuses on production/manufacturing organisations. He claims these
organisations have one goal: maximum productivity. Productivity can be divided into a number of functional requirements.
These can be seen as criteria. There are 4 functional requirements.
1. Production flexibility
The extent to which multiple producttypes can be manufactured with minimal cycle time.
2. Production control
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Production control is the reliability of cycle times. Production variability is always present in organisations but cycle times can
vary from constant and perfectly predictable to highly erratic with large variation. Production control is also the reliability of
delivering constant quality.
3. Production innovation
Production innovation is the extent to which a production organisation is able to think of new products that are desired by
customers and is able to design and produce these in short time frames.
4. Production quality of labor
Quality of labor is dependent on the extent to which personnel is able to satisfy job demands and have low stress levels.
They also need to feel involved and important. Lastly, the possibilities to learn and develop one self is also an important
requirement. Since de Sitter writes from a dutch point of view, he also sees labor relationships as a criteria for an
organisation.
Defining the criteria
As can be seen from the above related criteria, there is a large overlap in the criteria, but there are also criteria that are used
by one author but not by the other. For instance the criteria of van Aken of internal controllability is not found with the other
authors. It could be related to process control (cycle time variability), but he also has a specific criteria for that purpose
(responsivity) What van Aken means with it is more of a qualitative measure of the transparency of an organisation. (how
clear is the authority-, responsibility- and task distribution to all members of an organisation) While other authors also
mention its importance, they do not include it as an explicit criteria.
The criteria were compared and grouped together in a table. Where needed some criteria were cut up in to different criteria
in order to match them properly with other authors’ criteria. The criteria from different authors that overlapped, were given
names that reflect their definition. The result can be seen in the table below.
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Van Aken Jägers Keuning De Sitter Summary Definition
Strategy Survival
(fit to strategy)
Strategy fit Structure follows from ambitions
and mission of an organisation as
stated in its strategy.
Situation (fit with
environment)
External
needs
satisfaction
Survival (fit to
market structure
and to economy)
Environment
fit
Environment is defined as
constituting all the external
individuals, organisations and
institutions (excluding customers)
on which an organisation is
somehow dependant. An
organisation needs to be able to
satisfy environment needs.
Situation (fit with
technology)
Efficiency
(fit to technology)
Technology fit The extent to which an
organisation is able to adapt to
changes in environment needs.
Internal controllability Transparency The extent to which an
organisation is able to satisfy
customer needs.
Production flexibility Production
flexibility
The extent to which an
organisation is able to produce
the same amount of output with a
varying amount of resources.
Efficiency Efficiency Efficiency (fit to
economy &
resources)
Efficiency The clarity of the task-,
responsibility- and authority
distribution within an organisation.
Responsivity
(responsiveness to
changes in
environment)
Flexibility
(strategic and
operational)
Innovativeness
(strategic product
development)
External
flexibility
The extent to which an
organisation is able to deliver its
service / product in a constant and
timely manner.
Responsivity
(responsiveness to
process disturbances)
Controllability
(reliable CT)
Controllability The extent to which an
organisation is able to leverage its
technology through its structure.
Quality of output (with
respect to customer)
Needs satisfaction
(fit to client)
Customer fit The extent to which an
organisation is able to produce a
constant and high quality product /
service.
Quality of output (with
respect to product)
Controllability
(Quality control)
Quality
management
The extent to which an
organisation is able to satisfy
employee’s needs.
Quality of labor Satisfaction Satisfaction
(fit to people)
Quality of labor Quality of
labor
The extent to which a production
organisation is able to produce
varying volumes and types of
products.
Needs Satisfaction
(fit to stakeholders)
Quality of labor
relationships (labor
agreements)
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The concepts on the right side were given a definition, which can also be seen in table 1. The bottom most criteria of “Needs
satisfaction (fit to stakeholders)” and “Quality of labor (labor agreements)” were ignored because they are outside the scope
of this project.
This list of criteria was discussed with the project stakeholders at ASML and it was decided that the criteria that had an
external focus would not be used in the evaluation. This is because the production facility is very isolated from outside
customer influences in many ways and where it is not it is not in the organisations influence sphere to change anything about
it. The customer fit for instance is not inside the production organisations control. This is determined by the design of the
machines which is done by Development and Engineering. External flexibility would also apply more to D&E for the same
reason, but this is also not an important criteria for ASML, because customer demands have been more or less constant
over the last 20 years. (cheap & smaller line width) The fit with environment further is also not inside the organisations
responsibilities. The strategic fit then finally is obviously important as well, but is the responsibility of the main ASML board,
which is not inside this projects scope.
The criteria that remain were also evaluated on usefulness. Transparency was not used either, because only the production
tasks will be distributed differently. The management functions, support organisation and production engineering functions
remain the same. Consequently there will not be any large differences between the organisations with respect to this criteria.
The same reasoning applies to technology fit. This criteria would furthermore be very difficult to operationalise. Or in other
words, it would be difficult to determine how each organisation would score on this criteria. The production flexibility criteria
was also decided to be left out partly. The NXE organisation only has to produce one machine type, so the need for flexibility
with respect to the production of different product types is non-existent. Its flexibility with regards to its volume however is
important for ASML. This flexibility was subsequently termed scalability. Lastly, efficiency was decided to be to vague and all
encompassing. This is probably due to the more broader focus the authors had in general. Efficiency was subsequently split
up in productivity, process improvement and coordination need. Productivity is the number of machines that can be
produced by a similar number of resources. Process improvement is a quite important concept at ASML that refers to the
learning curve machines typically go through. The first machines will usually take much longer to finish then the last one. The
difference can be quite dramatically and given the large material investment ASML has to make in each machine, the time it
spends in its factory is a significant part of its cost, which makes this an important extra criteria to add. The last aspect of
efficiency is coordination need. This is similar to van Aken’s original definition of efficiency, where he writes about the need
to balance specialisation and generalisation.
Criteria Definition
Literature Controllability The extent to which an organisation is able to deliver its service / product in a
constant and timely manner.
Quality management The extent to which an organisation is able to produce a constant high quality
product / service.
Quality of labor The extent to which an organisation is able to satisfy employee’s needs.
Eff
icie
ncy
Productivity The number of machines ASML can produce per given time unit with the same
resources.
Process improvement The extent to which the organisation structure enables internal efficiency
process improvement.
Coordination need The amount of coordination that is required between organisational
departments in order to carry out their tasks.
ASML Scalability The speed with which an organisation is able to expand and contract in a
certain time frame with a minimum of problems.
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A large specialisation will probably increase individual workers efficiency, but might cause organisational inefficiencies
because people have difficulty communicating (miscommunications). It might also require more and longer communication to
coordinate activities, eventually also resulting in wasted time.
These changes resulted in the criteria as defined in the table above.