EGR 301 Applications for ARIMA Simulations.
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Transcript of EGR 301 Applications for ARIMA Simulations.
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EGR 301
Applications for ARIMA
Simulations
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Stabilizing the time series
Simulating the time series
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Purpose
Parameterize the accelerogram.
Relate parameters to source and site parameters.
Simulate acceleration histories.
Note
Include cross-correlation for components and sites.
Include parameter uncertainty to create CI envelopes.
Used a frequency-constrained ARMA (2,2).
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SCTI (recorded) Simulated (simulated)
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Reliability-based Design of Wastewater Treatment Plants
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Influent
Effluent
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1. Simulate influent BOD mass loading
Model (1-B)(1-B7)Zt = C + at
Application Reliability-based design
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2. Simulate upsets
When BOD/(NH3 +TON) > 10 upset
BOD and NH3 are positively correlated.
Model (1-B)(1-B7)Zt = C + at
Diagonal, multivariate
Application Reliability-based design
Note: multi. ARMA predicts half of univ. upsets.
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3. Plant operation
Permit: Weekly BOD effluent average < 20 mg/l 90% of time.
Question: What should BOD effluent be?
Model: (1-B)ln(Zt) = C + at
From simulations take weekly averages.
(Present mean/present 99% reliability value) = (target mean/permit value)
3.14/5.9 = target mean/20 target mean = 10.6 mg/l
Note: assume constant coefficient of variation ()
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