Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78...

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Efficiency Technology Advancements John German, ICCT July 9, 2014

Transcript of Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78...

Page 1: Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are

Efficiency Technology Advancements�

John German, ICCT!

July 9, 2014!

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2!

Passenger Car Fuel Economy Standards Globally!

U.S. 2025: 20.9 Canada 2025: 20.9

EU 2020: 25.8

Japan 2020: 23.4

China 2020: 21.3

S. Korea 2015: 16.7

Mexico 2016 : 14.6

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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Kilo

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per L

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US

CAF

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st C

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US-LDV

Canada-LDV

EU

Japan

China

S. Korea

India

Mexico-LDV

Solid markers and solid lines: historical performance Solid markers and dashed lines: final standard Hollow markers and dotted lines: proposal or target under study

[1]$China's$target$reflects$gasoline$vehicles$only.$The$target$may$be$higher$a:er$new$energy$vehicles$are$considered.$$[2]$US,$Canada,$and$Mexico$lightCduty$vehicles$include$lightCcommercial$vehicles.$[3]$Mexico$does$not$include$early$acFon$credits$for$MYs$2012$and$2013$but$does$include$full$applicaFon$of$other$credits.!$!!!

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Role of Fuel Economy Standards in Managing Performance – Fuel Consumption Tradeoff: US Example!

1975 1976

1977 1978 1979

1980 1981

1982

1983 1984

1985 1986 1987

1988 1989

1990 1991

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1994 1995

1996 1997 1998 1999

2000 2001 2002 2003

2004 2005

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Fuel Consumption (l/100km)

Acceleration (0-100 kmph) in Seconds for Cars and Wagon 1975-2013 Phase I

Phase II

Phase III

Phase I (1975-1981): Fuel consumption reduction takes priority over performance Phase II (1982-1987): Marginal gains in fuel consumption reduction and performance Phase III (1987-2006): Performance gains take priority over fuel consumption reduction Phase IV (2007-?): Fuel consumption reduction takes priority over performance again Data from EPA 2013 Fuel Economy Trends Report

Phase IV?

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Technology Deployment Spurred by Fuel Economy Standards!

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Opportunities for Vehicle Efficiency Improvements!

Engine Loss!74%!

Engine!

Standby:!6%!

Driveline!Losses:!

4%!

Driveline!

Aero:!4%!

Rolling:!5%!

Braking:!7%!

Fuel Tank:!100%!

20%! 16%!

»  Matt Kromer!

Urban Drive Cycle, 2005 2.5L Toyota Camry!

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The Real Technology Breakthrough!

! ! !Computers!!  Computer design, computer simulations, and

on-vehicle computer controls are revolutionizing vehicles and powertrains!

!  Especially important for lightweight materials!!  Optimize hundreds of parts – size and material!!  Capture secondary weight – and cost –

reductions !!  The high losses in the internal combustion

engine are an opportunity for improvement!!  Also reducing size and cost of hybrid system!

6!

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A broad suite of cost-effective technology packages are available to meet upcoming efficiency standards!

7!

•  Assessment of US 2012-2025 standards indicates the standards can be met with:!

"  Gasoline direct injection (GDI)!"  Turbocharged/downsized engines!"  Advanced transmissions (6-speed/8-speed automatic or dual-clutch

transmissions and high efficiency gear box)!"  Vehicle mass reduction!"  Lower tire rolling resistance!"  Improved aerodynamics!"  Friction reduction!"  More efficient vehicle accessories!"  Engine start-stop systems!"  …..!"  …..!"  …..!"  Some increased hybrids, EVs, PHEVs!

•  No penetration of diesels or hybrid vehicles necessary to meet US 2016 standards.!

•  EPA/NHTSA project that MY2025 vehicles will be 90% advanced gasoline, 9% hybrids, and 1% EV/PHEVs!

Page 8: Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are

Accelerating Technology Introduction in the U.S. is driven by Fuel Economy Regulation!

Source: 2013 EPA Fuel Economy Trends Report – Cars only GDI: Gasoline Direct Injection CVT: Continuously Variable Transmission VVT: Variable Valve Timing

GDI! Turbo! VVT! 6 speed! 7+ speed! CVT! Hybrid!2004! -! 4%! 43.7%! 5%! 0.4%! 2%! 1%!

2005! -! 2%! 49.4%! 6%! 0.4%! 3%! 2%!

2006! -! 3%! 58.2%! 12%! 2%! 3%! 2%!

2007! -! 4%! 63.3%! 16%! 2%! 10%! 3%!

2008! 3%! 4%! 62.7%! 19%! 3%! 11%! 3%!

2009! 4%! 4%! 79.1%! 19%! 3%! 11%! 3%!

2010! 9%! 4%! 91.8%! 33%! 3%! 14%! 5%!

2011! 18%! 8%! 94.9%! 54%! 5%! 12%! 3%!

2012! 28%! 10%! 97.7%! 58%! 6%! 15%! 5%!

2013! 38%! 16%! 98.0%! 61%! 8%! 17%! 6%!

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Example of Technology Upgrade: High-Selling Passenger Cars 2010 to 2014!

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3.7! 3.8! 3.9! 4.0! 4.1! 4.2! 4.3! 4.4! 4.5! 4.6!

Fuel

eco

nom

y (k

m/l)!

Vehicle footprint (m2)!

2014 4-cylinder sedans!

2010 4-cylinder sedans!

Fusion!

2012!2013!

2014!

2015!

2016!Accord!

Camry !

Mazda 6!

Mazda 6!i-eLOOP!

Altima!

Page 10: Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are

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Technology Costs Dropping Rapidly!Technology availability increases - and its costs decrease - over time!

!  Incremental vehicle costs and percent improvements versus MY2008 baseline!!  Data from EPA/NHTSA 2012-2016 rulemaking and EPA/NHTSA/CARB TAR for

2020!

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Examples of new/future Technologies!

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Honda Prototype Engine Base ( Electro-magnetic valve )

HCCI�Engine

30% Improvement in fuel economy:

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Heat release rate

Crank angle [ATDC deg]

dQ/dθ[

J/de

g]

-40 0 -20 40 20

0

10

20 HCCI SI

Requires increasing the self-ignition region

Next-generation Gasoline Engines!

EX! IN!

EX! IN!

NOL!

Conventional

Negative valve overlap

Fiat MultiAir Digital Valve Actuation

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Turbo Dedicated EGR Engines!

!  Highly dilute, low temperature combustion!

!  ~1% H2 by volume in the intake!

!  Advanced ignition systems required!

!  ~40% brake thermal efficiency (similar to diesel)!

!  PSA 2018 introduction!

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SAE INTERNATIONAL

• The maximum torque, minimum rpm where maximum torque occurs, and maximum power were targeted to exceed the reference engine Targeted torque and power required the use of two stage boosting

• Clutched Eaton V400 Supercharger • BorgWarner 2070 Turbocharger • Additional heat exchanger

PFI injector added for supplemental fueling

D-EGR Engine Conversion

2014-01-1190 8

0

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POW

ER (k

W)

Christopher Chadwell, Dr. Terry Alger, Raphael Gukelberger, Jacob Zuehl – Southwest Research Institute, A DEMONSTRATION OF DEDICATED-EGR ON A 2.0 L GDI ENGINE, SAE 2014-01-1190!

Page 14: Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are

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Lightweight Materials:Costs are dropping rapidly!

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Vehicle Lightweight Research in 2017-25 Rule!

15 ‐1.00 

0.00 

1.00 

2.00 

3.00 

4.00 

5.00 

0%  5%  10%  15%  20%  25%  30%  35% 

Incremental m

ass reduc.on  

cost ($ / lb reduced) 

Percent vehicle curb weight reduc.on 

Data from research literature (confiden=al industry data not shown) 

EPA/NHTSA ($4.33/lb/%) 

CARB evalua=on ($2.3/lb/%) 

Geck 2007 

Lotus 2010 

Das 2009 

Cheah 2007 

Plotkin 2009 

Aus=n 2008 

EEA 2007 

AISI 1998 

EEA 2007 

Lotus 2010  Das 2010 

Das 2008 

Das 2008 

Bull 2009 

NAS 2010 

Montalbo 2008 

Aus=n 2008 

AISI 2001 

!  Technical assessments on mass-reduction involve major studies by national US laboratories, OEM steel suppliers, OEMs with universities!!  Each data point represents a different material/design approach to mass reduction!!  Studies vary in technical rigor, transparency, comprehensiveness, crashworthiness

validation!!  EPA projected average vehicle mass would decrease by 7% by 2025!

Page 16: Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are

Major New Mass-Reduction Work!

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!  Lotus Engineering (CARB) – Toyota Venza!!  Continuation of 2010 study (-33% mass Toyota Venza)!!  Cost-effective 18-32% mass reduction at < $0/vehicle!!  Includes crashworthiness safety (NHTSA FMVSS) validation!

!  FEV (US EPA) – Toyota Venza!!  Technical assessment of -18% mass at < $0/vehicle!!  Includes crashworthiness safety (NHTSA FMVSS) validation

and detailed tear-down cost assessments!

!  EDAG / Electricore (NHTSA) – Honda Accord!!  Technical assessment of -22% mass at $319/vehicle!!  Includes crashworthiness safety (NHTSA FMVSS) validation!

!  EDAG WorldAutoSteel “Future Steel Vehicle”!!  12-18% mass reduction, no additional cost, with only using

steels!

!  George Washington University (NHTSA) – Chevy Silverado!!  19% mass reduction with advanced plastics, composites!

http://www.nhtsa.gov/DOT/NHTSA/NVS/Crashworthiness/Plastics/811692.pdf !

Page 17: Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are

Vehicle lightweighting is highly cost-effective!!  Major new state-of-the-art studies examine advanced materials,

parts integration, system-level holistic vehicle redesign!!  High lightweighting potential, crashworthy designs, and diverse highly

cost-effective approaches!!  EDAG, FEV, Lotus, and FSV lightweighting cost results are shown

below!

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-500!

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0%! 5%! 10%! 15%! 20%! 25%! 30%! 35%!

Incr

emen

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ost (

$/ve

hicl

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Percent vehicle curb weight reduction!

Data from older studies! Data from recent state-of-art studies!

Geck%2007%Ford%F150%

Lotus&2010&

Das%2009%

Cheah%2007%

Plotkin%2009%

AISI%1998%

Das%2010%

Das%2008%

Das%2008%Bull%2009%

NAS%2010%

Montalbo%2008%AISI%2001%

AusCn%2008%

AusCn%2008%

EEA%2007%EEA%2007%

Lotus&2010&NHTSA&EDAG&2012&

FSV&2012&

EPA&FEV/EDAG&&2012&

Lotus&2012&

Percent vehicle curb weight reduction!

Page 18: Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are

Weight Reduction in 2015 Ford F150!

The largest selling vehicle in the US!Weight reduction: !318 kg, 14%!Engine downsize:!3.5L to 2.7L!!

First use of aluminum body in high volume production vehicle! 95% of body– Aluminum! 77% of frame– HSS! !

Source: http://www.ford.com/trucks/f150/2015/!

Vanguard of a truly radical transformation in how vehicles are designed and built !

Page 19: Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are

Examples of vehicles in production�Vehicle make Model

year Weight reduction (kg)*

Weight reduction (%)*

Designed market

Ford F150 2015 318 14% US Acura MDX 2014 111 5% US GM Cadillac CTS 2014 111 6% US Peugeot 308 SW Blue Hdi 2014 140 9% EU VW Golf TDI 2015 49 4% EU Audi Q7 2014 363 15% US, EU BMW i3 EV 2014 249 17% US, EU Land Rover Range Rover 2014 350 14% US, EU Porsche Cayenne 2012 181 8% US, EU Audi A8 2014 145 7% US, EU Audi A3 2014 80 6% US, EU Nissan Leaf 2012 80 5% US, EU Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are compared to its predecessors, except for

BMW i3 EV, which is compared to the conventional steel structure.!

Page 20: Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are

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Technology Tear-Down: Robust and Transparent Cost Estimates!

Page 21: Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are

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US EPA / CARB / ICCT Vehicle computer simulation RICARDO (Detroit)

Tear-down cost assessment FEV (Detroit)

ICCT Vehicle computer simulation RICARDO (Shoreham + Detroit)

Tear-down cost assessment FEV (Aachen + Detroit)

Significantly improved method to assess CO2 reduction potential and costs of technologies.!

Page 22: Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are

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US EPA / CARB / ICCT Vehicle computer simulation RICARDO (Detroit)

Tear-down cost assessment FEV (Detroit)

ICCT Vehicle computer simulation RICARDO (Shoreham + Detroit)

Tear-down cost assessment FEV (Aachen + Detroit)

Significantly improved method to assess CO2 reduction potential and costs of technologies.!

Page 23: Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are

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Ricardo CO2 reduction analysis on

behalf of ICCT EPA / NHTSA

2017-25 rulemaking

FEV and Lotus Mass Reduction Analyses

only where no EU information available

FEV cost analysis on

behalf of ICCT

!!Data sources!

Methodology!

CO2 reduction cost curves for EU vehicle segments (ICCT, Meszler Engineering Services)

Page 24: Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are

Baseline, 1.6l, M5, 156 g/km, 6.4 l

SS, 1.6l, M5, 136 g/km, 5.6 l

SS+SGTDI, 0.8l, 8DCT, 97 g/km, 4.0 l

SS+CEGR, 0.8l, 8DCT, 93 g/km, 3.8 l

P2 AtkCPS, 1.9l, 8DCT, 77 g/km, 3.1 l

P2 AtkCPS, 1.6l, 8DCT, -13% mass, -10% RL, 66 g/km, 2.7 l

SS+SGTDI, 0.7l, 8DCT, -27% mass, -20% RL, 74 g/km, 3.0 l

P2 AtkCPS, 1.2l, 8DCT, -27% mass, -20% RL, 58 g/km, 2.4 l

0

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-65% -55% -45% -35% -25% -15% -5%

Ad

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aselin

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CO2 reduction relative to 2010 baseline

95 g/km

(3.9 l/100km)

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(3.3 l/100km)

70 g/km

(2.9 l/100km)

corresponding

fleet targets

2015

2020

2025

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!  C-segment gasoline!

!!!The Final Result!!

Methodology!

Page 25: Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are

25!

Comparison of Vehicles in US versus Mexico !

Page 26: Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are

High Altitude Impacts!

26!

•  Fuel economy is BETTER at high altitude:!•  Air density is lower, decreasing aerodynamic drag and reducing

pumping losses. !•  There is a loss of power if the engine is naturally

aspirated:  !•  If a manufacturer designs the vehicle for high altitude, they will

need to install a larger engine.  !•  However, engines in Mexico are still smaller and have less power

than engines in the US, making it easier for Mexican vehicles to meet the standards.!

•  Turbocharging will eliminate the power loss at high altitude - while preserving the pumping loss improvements:!

"All EcoBoost V-6 engines maintain peak torque capability at well over 5,000 feet above sea level, making EcoBoost-equipped vehicles ideal for high-altitude operation."    http://media.ford.com/article_display.cfm?article_id=30651!

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Wide-Range Transmission Gears!!  Older 4- and 5-speed transmissions have a gear range of about 4.5 (ratio

of shortest gear to tallest gear). It cannot cover all driving from highway cruising to high-altitude grades. Thus, some low-powered vehicles may need to have shorter gears for Mexico.!

!  Current 6+ speed transmissions have wider gear ranges, of 6.0 or more. This provides proper gearing for both highway cruising and high-altitude grades, without the need to change gearing.!

!  Also note that turbocharged engines do not lose performance at high-altitude, further reducing any need for shorter gears.!

Older transmissions!

Current US transmissions!

Mexico gearing!European gearing!

Gear range!

Gear range!

Gear range!

Page 28: Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are

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Displacement vs. Footprint: All Vehicles!

!  Regression of engine size versus vehicle footprint is 14% higher in the US than in Mexico!!  2008 data for Mexico and the US,

cars and light trucks combined!

y = 0.8165x 

R² = 0.3818 

y = 0.7158x 

R² = 0.36184 

2  3  4  5  6  7  8 

Displacement (liters) 

Footprint (m2) 

U.S. MY2008 vehicles 

Mexico MY2008 vehicles 

Linear (U.S. MY2008 vehicles) 

Linear (Mexico MY2008 vehicles) 

US Mexico Mexico vs US

Test weight (kg) 1875 1548 ‐17%

Engine size (liter) 3.3 2.4 ‐27%

Liters/kg 0.117 0.102 ‐13%

Displacement/kg ‐ Mexico versus US vehicles ‐ 2008 data

Page 29: Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are

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Power vs Footprint: All vehicles!!  Regression of engine power (hp)

versus vehicle footprint is 12% higher in the US than in Mexico!!  2008 data for Mexico and the US,

cars and light trucks combined!

y = 57.328x 

R² = 0.12543 

y = 51.378x 

R² = 0.24362 

100 

200 

300 

400 

500 

600 

700 

2  3  4  5  6  7  8 

Horsepower 

Footprint (m2) 

U.S. MY2008 vehicles 

Mexico MY2008 vehicles 

Linear (U.S. MY2008 vehicles) 

Linear (Mexico MY2008 vehicles) 

US Mexico Mexico vs US

Test weight (kg) 1875 1548 ‐17%

Horsepower 220 157 ‐28%

HP/kg 0.117 0.102 ‐13%

HP/kg ‐ Mexico versus US vehicles ‐ 2008 data

Page 30: Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are

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Cars 1.0L – 3.5L: Horsepower v Footprint!!  Regression of HP versus vehicle footprint is 17% higher in the US!

!  2008 data for Mexico and the US!

y = 50.31x 

R² = 0.10209 

y = 42.92x 

R² = 0.27502 

50 

100 

150 

200 

250 

300 

350 

400 

0  1  2  3  4  5  6 

Horsepower 

Footprint (m2) 

Cars only ‐ Displacement 1.0 ‐ 3.5L 

U.S. MY2008 vehicles 

Mexico MY2008 vehicles 

Linear (U.S. MY2008 vehicles) 

Linear (Mexico MY2008 vehicles) 

Page 31: Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are

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Cars 1.0L – 3.5L: Horsepower v Test Weight!!  Regression of HP versus test weight is 11% higher in the US!

!  2008 data for Mexico and the US!

y = 0.1265x 

R² = 0.37053 

y = 0.1137x 

R² = 0.45595 

50 

100 

150 

200 

250 

300 

350 

400 

0  500  1000  1500  2000  2500 

Horsepower 

Test weight (kg) 

Cars only ‐ Displacement 1.0 ‐ 3.5L 

U.S. MY2008 vehicles 

Mexico MY2008 vehicles 

Linear (U.S. MY2008 vehicles) 

Linear (Mexico MY2008 vehicles) 

Page 32: Efficiency Technology Advancements9 July] Panel 2 - John German... · Lamborghini Huracan 2015 78 5% US, EU Audi TT 3rd gen 2.0 TDI 2015 50 4% US, EU * The weight of new models are

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Cars 1.0L – 1.8L: Horsepower v Footprint!!  Regression of HP versus vehicle footprint is 3% higher in the US!

!  2008 data for Mexico and the US!

y = 32.964x 

R² = ‐0.0955 

y = 32.011x 

R² = 0.34569 

50 

100 

150 

200 

250 

0  1  2  3  4  5  6 

Horsepower 

Footprint (m2) 

Cars only ‐ Displacement 1.0 ‐ 1.8L 

U.S. MY2008 vehicles 

Mexico MY2008 vehicles 

Linear (U.S. MY2008 vehicles) 

Linear (Mexico MY2008 vehicles) 

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Cars 1.0L – 1.8L: Horsepower v Test Weight!!  Regression of HP versus test weight is 2% higher in the US!

!  2008 data for Mexico and the US!

y = 0.0928x 

R² = 0.35022 

y = 0.0913x 

R² = 0.52025 

50 

100 

150 

200 

250 

0  500  1000  1500  2000  2500 

Horsepower 

Test Weight (kg) 

Cars only ‐ Displacement 1.0 ‐ 1.8L 

U.S. MY2008 vehicles 

Mexico MY2008 vehicles 

Linear (U.S. MY2008 vehicles) 

Linear (Mexico MY2008 vehicles) 

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34!

Heavy-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy Improvement Opportunities!

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Improve vehicle and trailer aerodynamics

Reduce rolling

resistance

Improve transmission and drivetrain

efficiency

Improve engine

efficiency

Reduce vehicle weight

Optimize driver

behavior

Reduce auxiliary

loads

There are many opportunities to reduce fuel consumption of heavy vehicles (including buses).!

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US Technology Assessment!

Slide 36!

U.S. National Academy of Sciences (March 2010) found 35-50% improvement could be achieved in the 2015 to 2020 timeframe!

National Academy of Sciences (2010) FIGURE S-1 Comparison of 2015-2020 New Vehicle Potential Fuel Savings Technology for Seven Vehicle Types: Tractor Trailer (TT), Class 3-6 Box (Box), Class 3-6 Bucket (Bucket), Class 8 Refuse (Refuse), Transit Bus (Bus), Motor Coach (Coach), and Class 2b Pickups and Vans (2b). Also, for each vehicle class, the fuel consumption benefit of the combined technology packages is calculated as follows: % FCpackage = 1 – (1 - %FCtech 1)(1 - %FCtech2)(1 - %FCtech N) where %FCtech x is the percent benefit of an individual technology. SOURCE: TIAX (2009) ES-4.!

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Conclusion!

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Summary!

38!

•  Computer aided design and computer simulations are accelerating technology development.!•  Especially important for lightweight materials.!

•  Costs are rapidly decreasing.!•  Altitude impacts are becoming less important, due to

turbocharging and transmissions with a wider range of gears.!

•  Engines in Mexico are smaller and have less power than in the US, making it easier for them to meet the standards.!

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For more information… !  ICCT Passenger Vehicles website:

http://www.theicct.org/passenger-vehicles

!  Global Passenger Vehicle Standards Update: http://www.theicct.org/global-passenger-vehicle-standards-update

!  US CAFE Standards: http://www.theicct.org/policies/us-cafe-standards

!  EU LDV CO2 Regulation: http://www.theicct.org/policies/eu-light-duty-vehicle-co2-regulation

!  Review and Comparative Analysis of Fiscal Policies to promote fuel economy:

!  http://www.theicct.org/review-and-comparative-analysis-fiscal-policies

!  CO2 Standards: http://www.theicct.org/issues/co2-standards

Anup Bandivadekar anup “at” theicct.org

@TheICCT

Slide 39!

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Thank You!