Effects of Tropical Deforestation on Tropospheric Chemistry: A 10-year Study using GEOS-Chem
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Transcript of Effects of Tropical Deforestation on Tropospheric Chemistry: A 10-year Study using GEOS-Chem
Effects of Tropical Deforestation on Tropospheric Chemistry:A 10-year Study using GEOS-Chem
Prasad Kasibhatla, Duke University
James Randerson and Yang Chen, University of California Irvine
Guido van der Werf, Vrije University
Louis Giglio, Science Systems and Applications, Inc.
Jim Collatz, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Ruth DeFries, Columbia University
Doug Morton, University of Maryland
4th GEOS-Chem Users’ MeetingApril 9, 2009
Figure 7.3
Global C Budget for 1990s
Source: IPCC AR4 WG1 Report
black – steady-state preindustrialred – anthropogenic perturbation
+3.2 Gt C/yr
• LUC 0.5-2.7 Gt C/yr (large uncertainty) - primarily tropical deforestation model vs satellite measurements of CO in regions of intense deforestation model simulations with and without fire emissions in deforestation regions
Model Simulations
Model GEOS-CHEM v8-01-02 driven by GEOS-4 4x5 met fields
Emissions
• Fossil fuel combustion: EDGAR with regional inventories for North America (NEI), Europe (EMEP), Asia (Streets), and Mexico(BRAVO) - representative of year ~2000
• Biofuel combustion: Yevich and Logan
• Biogenic VOCs: MEGAN
• Biomass burning: Annually-varying, monthly GFED2 emissions
Runs
• Run 1: 1997-2007 full chemistry simulation (2005 met fields for 2007)• Run 2: 1997-2007 tagged CO simulation using monthly-mean OH fields from Run 1• Run 3: 1997-2007 full chemistry simulation without biomass burning emissions in grid cells with detected humid tropical forest deforestation between 2000-2005 (Hansen et al., PNAS, 2008)
BONA
TENA
EQAS
BOAS-eastEURO
SHSA
NHSA
CEAM
MIDENHAF SHAF
SEAS
CEAS
AUST
Tagged CO Biomass Burning Regions
BOAS-west
• For this talk, focus on SHSA Total fire emissions = 314 Tg C/yr; deforest. fire emissions = 209 Tg C/yr EQAS Total fire emissions = 255 Tg C/yr; deforest. fire emissions = 255 Tg C/yr(Global fire emissions = 2415 Tg C/yr; deforest. fire emissions = 813 Tg C/yr)
MOPITTModel TotalIn-region firesOut-of-region firesFossil fuel/biofuelMethane oxidationBiogenic HC oxidation
700 mb CO
CO
(p
pb)
year
Model vs MOPITT Regional Average CO over EQAS
• Large interannual variability – generally well simulated by model
Model vs MOPITT Regional Average CO over SHSA
MOPITTModel TotalIn-region firesOut-of-region firesFossil fuel/biofuelMethane oxidationBiogenic HC oxidation
CO
(p
pb)
700 mb CO
year
• Seasonal fire season peak reasonably well simulated, but but modeled interannual variability is higher than observed
• Significant overestimate in non-fire season suggesting biogenic hydrocarbon oxidation source of CO is too high
700 mb CO (ppb): Model vs MOPITTJU
LA
UG
SE
PO
CT
MOPITT Model Model - MOPITT
2005
September Surface O3 (ppb): With – Without Deforestation
SEP 1997
SEP 2000
SEP 2005
SEP 2006
September Surface PM2.5 (µg m-3): With – Without Deforestation
SEP 1997
SEP 2000
SEP 2005
SEP 2006
Annual N Deposition: With/Without Deforestation
1997
2000
2005
2006
October 1997 OH % Change: 100*(With – Without Def.)/(With Def) Surface 500 mb
300 mb 700 mb
• Variability of regional average modeled CO in general agreement with
MOPITT CO over EQAS and SHSA lends confidence to GFED2 C
emissions from tropical deforestation since these are major deforestation
regions, BUT interannual variations over SHSA seems to be overestimated.
and MORE IMPORTANTLY, poor simulations of spatial patterns over SHSA.
GFED2 2000-2005 pan-tropical deforestation fire C emissions ~0.8 P C yr-1
best estimate of committed C flux ~ 0.8-1.3 Pg C yr-1
• Significant effect of tropical deforestation on local/regional air quality
parameters next steps will involve analysis of human health/ecological
effects (Miriam Marlier), in concert with next generation of GFED product
and regional atmospheric chemistry modeling over SHSA and EQAS.
Summary
NASA (funding) Bob Yantosca, Philippe Le Sager, Claire Carouge (model)
Louisa Emmons, Merritt Deeter, and MOPITT team (MOPITT data)
Jennifer Logan (discussions)
Jesse Kenyon (programmer)
Acknowledgements