Effects of the 3-Hour

Tarmac Delay Rule

Yi-Hsin Lin15 December 201116.781 Final Project

The Tarmac-Delay Rule

• Response to series of highly publicized delayso Valentine’s Day 2007: 28 flights with tarmac delays over 3 hours

• Tarmac delays of over three hours result in a fine of up to $27,500 per passenger

• Requires airlines to provide food, water, working lavatories, and medical care if necessary to passengers for tarmac delays over two hours

• Exceptions for safety, security, and air traffic control restrictions, but each case is reviewed by DOT

• Rule went into effect on April 29, 2010

First Fine: American Eagle

• First fine was issued last month: to American Eagle for 15 flights delayed at ORD on arrival

• ORD departures cancelled due to weather• No gates available for arriving flights• 608 passengers affected• Fined $900,000• Fine was much less than $16.7 million max

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Success! But it’s not that simple…

• DOT says tarmac rule has been highly successful

• Airlines and some analysts claim that the rule is worse for consumers

1. Increased cancellation rateso May 2009-April 2010: 102200 of 6417992 flights (1.6%)o May 2010-April 2011: 120401 of 6350073 flights (1.9%)

2. More unnecessary gate returns Longer delays

A Note on Datasets• Data comes from the BTS website (

www.transtats.bts.gov)

• Does not contain all US domestic flights, only major carriers

• Data from 2007 through September 2011

Monthly Tarmac Delays and

Cancellation RatesTarm

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Rate

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5/09-4/10: 1.6%

5/10-4/11: 1.9%

5/08-4/09: 1.7%

Taxi-out Delays by Origin (2007)

Monthly Delays and Cancellation Rates

(JFK)Tarm

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Rate

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5/09-4/10: 2.6%

5/10-4/11: 3.2%

5/08-4/09: 2.8%

Without 27 December 2010 snowstorm: 2.9%

Daily Tarmac Delays and Cancellation

Rates (JFK)

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Rate

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June 2009 June 2011

Gate Return Statistics (JFK)

5/2008-4/2009

5/2009-4/2010

5/2010-4/2011

1/2011-9/2011

Dates(N = 5) 17 54 57 41

Gate Returns(N = 5) 96 387 405 403

GR Departure(N = 5)

85 (88.5%) 312 (80.6%)

344 (84.9%)

337 (83.6%)

Dates(N = 10) 0 10 6 12

Gate Returns(N = 10) 0 125 104 230

GR Departure(N = 10)

- 79 (63.2%) 78 (75.0%)180

(78.3%)Without 31 December 2009 snowstorm, 72.4%.

Tarmac Times for Gate Returns (JFK)

All gate returns

Gate returns resulting in departures

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Conclusions• Drastic decrease in long tarmac delays• Increase in cancellation rate unclear• Few gate returns resulting in longer delays

• DOT has been reasonable in enforcing the rule• Rule doesn’t solve underlying congestion problem

Questions? Comments?

Valentine’s Day 2007• Massive snowstorm affecting the northeast• At JFK, 287 out of 336 departures cancelled

(85.4%)• Of 49 remaining departures, 16 had taxi out times

more than 3 hourso JetBlue flight 623 to HOU sat on tarmac for 7+ hours

• 253 out of 335 arrivals cancelled (75.5%)• Of 82 remaining arrivals, 8 diverted and 12 had

taxi in times more than 3 hourso JetBlue 850 from RSW sat on tarmac for 9+ hours

• 1697 3+-hour tarmac delays in 2007o 358 3+-hour tarmac delays at JFK

Case Study: 26 June 2009

vs. 9 June 2011

Friday, 26 June 2009, 20Z

Thursday, 9 June 2011, 20Z

Traffic Management Initiatives

26 June 2009 9 June 2011

• 1522: FCAA08, 20-2Z• 1528: GDP, 20-3Z• 2043: GS, till 22Z• 2122: GS, extend till

23Z• 2216: FCAA08, 20-3Z• 2348: GDP, till 5Z

• 1625: FCAA05, 18-3Z• 1628: FCAA08, 18-3Z• 1831: GDP, 21-2Z• 1857: GS, till 20Z• 2004: GDP, till 3Z• 2211: GS, till 23Z• 2248: GS, extend till

0Z

Times are in UTC = EST + 4.

Case Study: 26 June 2009

vs. 9 June 201126 June 2009 9 June 2011

Scheduled departures

381 274

Cancellations (%) 38 (10.0%) 30 (10.9%)

Scheduled arrivals 382 271

Cancellations (%) 40 (10.5%) 14 (5.2%)

Gate Returns 9 33

GR Cancellation 1 9

GR Departure 8 24