Effects of HIV/AIDS on Teacher Education

Teacher Education in Developing CountriesDwaine Lee

Nov. 26, 2003

Adults and children living with HIV/AIDS in 2002

SSA = 10% of world’s population;70% of AIDS deaths

UNAIDS/WHO, 2002

Western Europe

570 000570 000North Africa & Middle East

550 000550 000

Sub-Saharan Africa26.5 26.5

millionmillion

Eastern Europe & Central Asia

1.2 million1.2 million

South & South-East Asia

6 million6 million

Australia & New Zealand

15 00015 000

North America

980 000980 000Caribbean

440 000440 000

Latin America

1.5 1.5 millionmillion

East Asia & Pacific

1.2 million1.2 million

AIDS is responsible for 1 in 5 deaths in Africa = #1 cause of death

UNAIDS, 2002

1/3 of those living with HIV/AIDS are aged 15-24 Kelly, 2000

Leading causes of death in Africa, 2000

Source: The World Health Report 2001, WHO

22.6

10.1 9.16.7

5.5 4.3 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.3

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

HIV/AIDS Malaria Perinatalconditions

Tuberculosis

Cerebrovascular disease

Diarrhoeal disease

Lowerrespiratory infections

Measles Ischaemic Heart

disease

Maternalconditions

% ofTotal

In 1998, 200,000 Africans died due to conflict & war compared to 2.2 million to AIDS (Hunter & Williamson, 2000)

• Highest rates in 20-39 age group: most productive members of society (including teachers)

• Low rate in 5-14 age group indicates “window of hope”

Worldwide Issue• Beyond sub-Saharan Africa, more recent

epidemics continue to grow—– China, – Indonesia,– Papua New Guinea, – Viet Nam, – several Central Asian Republics, – the Baltic States, and – North Africa

• India is “the biggest concern in Asia” with some districts reporting rates of 5% (Piot in NY Times, 2003).

The Impact of HIV/AIDS

• Demand: by affecting the number & characteristics of the school-age population

• Supply: through the death & absenteeism of teachers

• Quality: through interrupted schooling & inadequate teacher training

Malaney, 2000, p. 5)

Effect on Demand

Projected population structure with and without the AIDS epidemic, Botswana, 2020

80757065605550454035302520151050

020406080100120140 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Males Females

Deficits due to AIDS

Projected population structure in 2020

Population (thousands)

Ag

e in

yea

rs

Source: US Census Bureau, World Population Profile 2000

“International evidence indicates that orphans tend to have lower enrollment rates than children with both parents alive and their disadvantage can be substantial…” (Abt Associates, 2002, p. xiv).

source: US Bureau of Census

Percentage change in school age (5-14) population between 2000 and 2015 (US

Bureau of the Census)

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Despite the affects of HIV/AIDS, most countries will have more children in school in 2015 than today.

Effect on Supply

Supply

• The Zambian Ministry of Education reported that 2.2% of all teachers died in 1996.

• This was already more than the number of teachers produced by colleges that year, but it has been estimated that teacher death rates might triple by 2005 (LoveLife, 2000).

Supply

• The World Bank projected that 14,460 Tanzanian teachers would die by 2010, costing US$21 million in replacement training (Save the Children UK, 2001a).

Supply

• Projections for South Africa suggest that whereas teacher education production capacity is now 5,000 annually, at least 30,000 new teachers will be required to be trained each year by the end of the decade (Crouch 2001b).

Supply

• Teachers are also being lost to other sectors of government and to the private sector to replace personnel lost to AIDS (Swaziland Ministry of

Education, 1999).

• Educator productivity is reported to be down and absenteeism up because of AIDS-related sickness, care for family members, and attendance at funerals.

Number of primary school teachers in presence and absence of HIV/AIDS in a western African country

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015Year

Projected number ofteachers in thepresence of an HIVepidemic

Absolute number ofteachers (data)

Projected number ofteachers in the absenceof an HIV epidemic

Dzingai Mutumbuka, World Bank

Cost of HIV/AIDS to the Ministry of Education

Cost item 1990-2010 (million US $)

Zambia Mozambique

Extra Teacher training

5.4 10.8

Teacher absenteeism

16.2 43.3

Funerals 1.6

Total 23.2 54.1

Dzingai Mutumbuka, World Bank

Even more dramatically increased rate of expansion

0

25

50

75

100

1990 2000 20202015

Is EFA Attainable? Example: Sub-Saharan African

1990: NER = 54%44 million school age children in school

2000: NER = 57%56 million school age children in school

2010: If NER stays at 57%67 million school age children in school, requiring growth of 11 million

2010: If NER increases to75%88 million school age children in school, requiring growth of 32 million

2015: To achieve NER of 100%129 million school age children in school, requiring growth of 73 million

millions

Source: UNESCO data

2010

Dramatically different rate ofexpansion of access

Questions to Consider for Teacher Education

• Can enough teachers be recruited and trained? • How can we keep teachers from leaving their posts for

other sectors/opportunities?• Will there be adequate numbers of supervisors,

managers, planners, TTC staff?• Is there adequate (any?) coverage for absent teachers?• Is there a need for innovative supply models: distance

education, non-formal approaches (BRAC, Escuela Nueva)

• What HIV/AIDS-related inputs need to be included in the teacher training curriculum?

The End

Thank You