Effects of Climate Change on Recreation...Mar 24, 2016 · Nancy Brunswick, Michael Hand, Jordan...
Transcript of Effects of Climate Change on Recreation...Mar 24, 2016 · Nancy Brunswick, Michael Hand, Jordan...
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Effects of Climate Change
on Recreation
David L. Peterson
USFS Pacific Northwest Research Station
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Effects of Climate Change
on Recreation
Big thanks to:
Nancy Brunswick, Michael Hand, Jordan Smith, Carol Brown, Susan Leslie
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Why assess recreation?
• 18.8 million visitors per year in national forests, 24 million visitors in national parks (7 million in Lake Mead NRA)
• $973 million in recreation spending (⅓ local, ⅔ non-local); largest expenditures for lodging, fuel, restaurants, groceries
• Tourism/recreation vs. timber/mining: no contest!
Recreation links climate, ecosystem services,
and human behavior and values.
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Local economic benefits
Focus on Zion NP and
Cedar Breaks NM
• 3.4 million visitors
• $160 million in recreation spending (63% on lodging, food)
• 2,600 jobs in local communities
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National forest recreation sites
2111 sites (31 categories)Trails - 672Campgrounds - 608Interpretive - 117Boating - 99Picnic - 98
Highest number of sitesUinta-Wasatch-Cache NF - 427Boise NF - 230Bridger-Teton NF - 224
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National Forest recreation data
Warm-weather
activities; 46.2%
Winter activities;
20.6%
Wildlife activities;
10.2%
Gathering forest
products; 0.8%
Water-based activities;
1.7%Other
activities; 20.6
Source: USDA FS (n.d.)
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National Forest recreation data
Most popular activities
Hiking 17.1%Viewing natural features 16.2%Downhill skiing 16.1%Hunting 5.3%Fishing 3.8%Camping 3.5%
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Conceptual model of climate effects
Climate change
Precip. timing, amount, & phase
(snow vs. rain)
Maximum & minimum daily temperatures
Engage in recreation?
Frequency & duration
Activity & site choice
Equipment & investments
Changes in site characteristics &
quality
- Vegetation- Wildlife- Water flows/levels- Disturbances (e.g.,
fire)- Site availability- Unique features
(e.g., glaciers)
No
Yes
Occurrence of extreme events
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Direct climate pathways
Climate change
Precip. timing, amount, & phase
(snow vs. rain)
Maximum & minimum daily temperatures
Engage in recreation?
Frequency & duration
Activity & site choice
Equipment & investments
Changes in site characteristics &
quality
- Vegetation- Wildlife- Water flows/levels- Disturbances (e.g.,
fire)- Site availability- Unique features
(e.g., glaciers)
No
Yes
Occurrence of extreme events
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Indirect climate pathways
Climate change
Precip. timing, amount, & phase
(snow vs. rain)
Maximum & minimum daily temperatures
Engage in recreation?
Frequency & duration
Activity & site choice
Equipment & investments
Changes in site characteristics &
quality
- Vegetation- Wildlife- Water flows/levels- Disturbances (e.g.,
fire)- Site availability- Unique features
(e.g., glaciers)
No
Yes
Occurrence of extreme events
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Direct effects of climate change
on recreation
• Higher temperatures, more extremes
• Change in timing/phase of precipitation: -- More precipitation as rain -- Less snow, reduced duration of snow
• Earlier spring melt
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Indirect effects of climate change
on recreation
• Increased wildfire area burned, fire size, fire season length
• Reduced access caused by flooding, landslides, infrastructure damage
• Potential vegetative change, especially dry forests and subalpine forests
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Expected effects:
Warm-weather activities
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Expected effects:
Warm-weather activities
Sensitivity to climate
- Increase in snow-free and ice-free days, days with suitable temperatures
- Presence/abundance of unique features (e.g., wildflowers), trail conditions, wildfire effects, vegetation and cover
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Expected effects:
Warm-weather activities
Sensitivity to climate
- Increase in snow-free and ice-free days, days with suitable temperatures
- Presence/abundance of unique features (e.g., wildflowers), trail conditions, wildfire effects, vegetation and cover
Expected effects
- Overall increase in demand (++)
- Shifting seasons: Warmer “shoulder seasons” (+), extreme temps in summer (-)
- Shifting site preferences: higher elevations, response to fire/smoke (+/-)
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Expected effects:
Snow-based winter activities
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Expected effects:
Snow-based winter activities
Sensitivity to climate
- Depends on amount and timing of snow, variation in temp., rain-on-snow events
- Decrease in viable seasons, esp. at lower elevations
- Decrease in snow-dominated areas in early & late winter
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Expected effects:
Snow-based winter activities
Sensitivity to climate
- Depends on amount and timing of snow, variation in temp., rain-on-snow events
- Decrease in viable seasons, esp. at lower elevations
- Decrease in snow-dominated areas in early & late winter
Expected effects
- Decrease in opportunities (--)
- Demand concentrated during shorter seasons at fewer sites (+/-)
- Mobile visitors may substitute sites that are relatively unaffected (+/-)
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Expected effects:
Wildlife-related activities
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Expected effects:
Wildlife-related activities
Sensitivity to climate
- Uncertain effects on terrestrial species
- Warmer hunting seasons undesirable
- Potential river closures due to high temp.
- Reduced cold-water fish, increased warm-water fish
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Expected effects:
Wildlife-related activities
Sensitivity to climate
- Uncertain effects on terrestrial species
- Warmer hunting seasons undesirable
- Potential river closures due to high temp.
- Reduced cold-water fish, increased warm-water fish
Expected effects
- Misalignment of hunting season (short-term -, long-term +/-)
- Uncertain effects on terrestrial harvest (+/-)
- Decreased opportunities for cold-water fishing (-)
- Substitution of warm-water species (+/-)
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Expected effects:
Water-based activities
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Expected effects:
Water-based activities
Sensitivity to climate
- Higher temperatures and more extremes
- Lower streamflowsand reservoir levels
- Earlier low flows in rivers
- Lower water quality (e.g., algal blooms)
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Expected effects:
Water-based activities
Sensitivity to climate
- Higher temperatures and more extremes
- Lower streamflowsand reservoir levels
- Earlier low flows in rivers
- Lower water quality (e.g., algal blooms)
Expected effects
- Increased demand for recreation on lakes and streams (+)
- Restricted access to smaller lakes and streams with low water levels (-)
- Restricted access to lakes with poor water quality (-)
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Expected effects:
Gathering forest products
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Expected effects:
Gathering forest products
Sensitivity to climate
- Vegetation distribution and abundance may change
- Wildfire frequency and smoke will increase
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Expected effects:
Gathering forest products
Sensitivity to climate
- Vegetation distribution and abundance may change
- Wildfire frequency and smoke will increase
Expected effects
- Abundance of target species may increase or decrease (+/-)
- Gathering activities will be less desirable with poor air quality (-)
- Access may be restricted during wildfires (-)
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What we learned in 2014-15
(the winter without snow)
Recreationists are highly adaptable
• They found snow• They switched to
summer activities
Capacity of agencies to adapt was minimal
• But they understand how climate affects recreation patterns
• They have ideas for adapting to a warmer climate in the future
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Questions?