Effects of Climate Change on Effects of Climate Change on Canadian Agriculture and Canadian Agriculture and Adaptation OpportunitiesAdaptation Opportunities

Presentation to Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry

Ed Tyrchniewicz P.Ag

President, Agricultural Institute of Canada

February 20 2003

OutlineOutline

But agriculture is different –Elements of climate change and

agricultureBenefits and concerns for agricultureAdaptation opportunities

But Agriculture is Different:But Agriculture is Different:Some Realities ...Some Realities ...

Biological process of production is very dependent on climate and weather

Climate variability is a fact of life – risk management

Ag sector generally operates in global markets with narrow margins and limited opportunities to pass costs on to customers

But Agriculture is Different:But Agriculture is Different:Some More Realities ...Some More Realities ...

Process of policy making in agriculture is a shared federal-provincial responsibility

Focus on short term income problemsExpanding exports is seen as a solution;

dealing with climate change is notPerception of agriculture as a polluter

and destroyer of the environment

Elements of Climate ChangeElements of Climate Change

TemperaturePrecipitation Variability

more extreme weather events

risk management

Sources of Greenhouse Sources of Greenhouse GasesGases

CO2 Fossil fuels, soil destruction,

deforestation

Methane Agriculture, landfills, coal mines, gas

production losses

N2O Soil, Fossil fuels, Fertilizer

Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and Agriculture’s Emissions

Gas Relative GWP (CO2

equivalent)

% of 1996 Ag. Emissions (CO2 eq.)

CO2 1 3%

CH4 21 36%

N2O 310 61%

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from CanadianAgroecosystemsfrom 1996

( CO2equivalent)

Manure19.9%

Fertilizers11.3%

Crops13.2%

Enteric fermentation18.5%

Other3.4%

Benefits to AgricultureBenefits to Agriculture

• potentially more heat units• longer frost free season• increase moisture in some drought

prone areas of Eastern Canada

• CO2 growth enhancement

Concerns for AgricultureConcerns for Agriculture

increased variability in climate raised sea level on the East and

West Coasts increased and decreased soil

moisture in different parts of Canada

more/different weeds and bugs more erosion

Changes in Ecozone Changes in Ecozone BoundariesBoundaries

Present Day Doubled-CO2

Agriculture has a history of Agriculture has a history of adapting to changeadapting to change

technology

markets

policies

climate

Adaptation OpportunitiesAdaptation Opportunities

Conservation tillageManure managementShelterbelts and permanent

coverCarbon storageCarbon emissions trading

Adaptation OpportunitiesAdaptation Opportunities

Conservation tillageManure managementShelterbelts and permanent

coverCarbon storageCarbon emissions trading

Adaptation OpportunitiesAdaptation Opportunities

Conservation tillageManure managementShelterbelts and permanent

coverCarbon storage Carbon emissions trading

Adaptation OpportunitiesAdaptation Opportunities

Conservation tillageManure managementShelterbelts and permanent

coverCarbon storageCarbon emissions trading

Adaptation OpportunitiesAdaptation Opportunities

Conservation tillageManure managementShelterbelts and permanent

coverCarbon storageCarbon emissions trading

Blessed are the FlexibleBlessed are the Flexible

For They Shall Not Get Bent Out Of Shape