Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture and Poverty
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Transcript of Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture and Poverty
Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture and Poverty
Presented at The Partnership Summit 2012, CII 13 Jan 2012, Hyderabad
AVR Kesava Rao and Suhas P Wani
Contents
• Global warming and climate change
• Impacts on Agriculture
• CC Adaptation - ICRISAT’s experience
• Way forward
Challenges Humanity is Facing in 21st Century
Challenges Humanity is Facing in 21st Century
Correlations Energy securityEnergy security
Foodsecurity
Foodsecurity
Climate changeClimate change
Trad
e-off
Consequences
337
24
596
384Sub-
Saharan Africa 384 M
Sub-Saharan Africa 384 M
East Asia and Pacific
334 M
East Asia and Pacific
334 M
South Asia596 M
South Asia596 M
Central Asia 24 M
(28.7%) (25%)
(44.5%)
(1.8%)
The poor half billion in South Asia
Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank 2009. Note: Number of people living on less than US$1.25 a day at 2005 international prices. South Asia includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. East Asia Pacific includes China.
• Fastest growing economy
• At a far more advanced stage of development than Sub-Saharan Africa
• Yet, home for largest concentration of poor people
• Stupendous growth hides deep pockets of poverty
• A depressing paradox
Global Warming Global Warming
Warming trends since 1979 show:
• Warming everywhere at surface except in eastern Pacific, Southern Ocean and parts of Antarctica
India: Warmest Year 2010
Source: IMD, 2011
• Mean annual temperature of India in 2010 was +0.93°C above the 1961-1990 average
• 2010 is the warmest year on record since 1901
• Pre- Monsoon season (March-May) mean temperature was 1.8 °C above normal
• Mean annual temperature of India in 2010 was +0.93°C above the 1961-1990 average
• 2010 is the warmest year on record since 1901
• Pre- Monsoon season (March-May) mean temperature was 1.8 °C above normal
Data source: IMD
India – Rainfall variability
Natural Catastrophes
The Big Threat The Big Threat
A perfect storm:
Climate ChangeClimate Change
Irregularities in water availability
Climate variability at Nemmikal, Nalgonda, AP
After 1978, climate slowly tending towards Arid type, LGP reduced by 15 days
Popular varieties of Maize, Pigeonpea are likely to fail more number of times
Unprecedented rains in AP during 10-11 Jan 2012
• 0.49 million hectares crops have been affected
• Estimated loss is Rs. 7 billion
• On 11 Jan, Kavali in Nellore district 169 mm
Harvested paddy floating in flood water
Wet BlackgramFlood water affects color of chillies
Many people who have contributed least to climate change may suffer the greatest livelihood consequences
Many people who have contributed least to climate change may suffer the greatest livelihood consequences
The only Global R&D Organizationfor Semi-Arid Agriculture
Mission is toReduce poverty, hunger, malnutrition and
environmental degradation in the dryland tropics
Rainfed Potential Yields and Yield Gaps of Selected Crops in
India
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Soybean Groundnut Pigeonpea Chickpea
Yie
ld (
kg h
a-1
)
Max. rainfed potential
Mean rainfed potential
District Mean
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Kharif sorghum Rabi sorghum Pearl millet
Yie
ld (
kg h
a-1
)
Max. rainfed potential
Mean rainfed potential
District Mean
Legumes Sorghum and pearl millet
Climate Change: ICRISAT’s Hypothesis of Hope
Short-duration chickpea cultivars that can withstand high temperatures
Super-earlyICC 96029,75-80 days
Extra-earlyICCV 2,
85-90 days
Early maturingKAK 2,
90-95 days
Resilient crops for the poor
• Developed through cytoplasmic male sterility (CMS) system
• Wilt resistant and high yielding with farmers earning 80% higher than those growing traditional varieties
ICPH 2671: World’s first pigeonpea hybrid
Crop improvement
570 improved varieties developed by ICRISAT and partners, released in 171 countries
Community watersheds
Use of new science tools
A holistic participatory approach
Continuous monitoring and evaluation
Linked on-station and Off-station
Empowerment of community and stakeholders
Mix of individual and community-based interventions
Consortium for technical backstopping
Integrated Watershed Management to Build Resilience of Natural Resources
and Communities
Integrated Watershed Management to Build Resilience of Natural Resources
and Communities
Chickpea revolution in AP
Kabuli chickpea: increased area 6-fold and production 13-fold in 15 years in Andhra Pradesh, India
Opportunities to bridge yield gaps
Bhoochetana Project, Karnataka, Kharif 2010
Equity and Efficiency to Protect Economy and Environment
Equity and Efficiency to Protect Economy and Environment
EfficiencyEfficiency
EquityEquity
Environment
Environment
EconomyEconomy
Adaptation &
Mitigation Strategies
Adaptation &
Mitigation Strategies
Way forward
Global warming tolerance thresholds not too far, adaptation + mitigation approach crucial
Climate Change has no respect for borders and affects all: Ban-Ki-Moon
Diversification of livelihood options, a good adaptation strategy
Harness potential of IWM through holistic approach to enhance crop productivity by 2-3 folds
Global warming tolerance thresholds not too far, adaptation + mitigation approach crucial
Climate Change has no respect for borders and affects all: Ban-Ki-Moon
Diversification of livelihood options, a good adaptation strategy
Harness potential of IWM through holistic approach to enhance crop productivity by 2-3 folds
Way forward
Improved agromet advisory services and weather insurance packages
Enabling policies and institutions for improving access to credit and insurance markets to the rural poor, particularly the women
Agriculture must play a key-role in climate solutions
Improved agromet advisory services and weather insurance packages
Enabling policies and institutions for improving access to credit and insurance markets to the rural poor, particularly the women
Agriculture must play a key-role in climate solutions
Contd..
A technological society has two choices. First it can wait until catastrophic failures expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and self-deceptions…
Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures
Thank you!