EEKAA BusinessPlanBaltiskWindFarm-KAL Eng

8/18/2019 EEKAA BusinessPlanBaltiskWindFarm-KAL Eng

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The European Union’s Tacis Programmefor the Russian Federation

Delegation of the European Commission to Russia

Energy Efficiency at Regional Level inArkhangelsk, Astrakhan and KaliningradRegions

Business Plan Baltisk WindFarm (Kaliningrad Oblast)

Final Report

December 2007

This project is funded by theEuropean Union

This project is implemented by theCOWI consortium

EuropeAid/120746/C/SV/RU


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Delegation of the EuropeanCommission to Russia

EuropeAid/120746/C/SV/RU

Energy Efficiency at RegionalLevel in Arkhangelsk, Astrakhan and KaliningradRegions

Business PlanBaltisk Wind Farm(Kaliningrad Oblast)Final Report

December 2007


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Published December 2007

Copyright © 2007 by EuropeAid, European Commission

Enquiries concerning reproduction should be sent tothe Tacis Information Office,

European Commission, 170 Rue de la Loi, B-1049 Brussels

This report has been prepared by the COWI-CENEf-ICCS/NTUA-Mott MacDonald-SWECO Consortium. The findings, conclusions andinterpretations expressed in this document are those of the Consortium alone and should in no way be taken to reflect the policies or opinionsof the European Commission.


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Business Plan Baltisk (Kaliningrad Oblast) Wind Farm

COWI-CENEf-ICCS/NTUA-Mott MacDonald-SWECO Consortium 4

Table of content

1. Executive summary .................................................................................................................. 5

2. Existing facilities ....................................................................................................................... 6

3. Present wind power and perspectives for its further development in the region .................... 14

4. Evaluation of wind power potential and technical capacity for project implementation .......... 15

5. Existing tariffs and state regulation......................................................................................... 19

6. Required equipment and selected technology........................................................................ 21

7. Investment plan ...................................................................................................................... 23

8. Production plan....................................................................................................................... 24

9. Environmental and technical safety........................................................................................ 25

10. Financial plan........................................................................................................................ 2710.1. Assumptions, accepted for financial analysis................................................................. 2710.2. Inputs ............................................................................................................................. 2710.3. Estimation of sales proceeds ......................................................................................... 2910.4. Financial sources ........................................................................................................... 3010.5. Cost-effectiveness.......................................................................................................... 30

11. Project stability analysis........................................................................................................ 31

11.1. Break-even level ............................................................................................................ 3111.2. Sensitivity analysis......................................................................................................... 32


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1. Executive summary

Present business plan provide conception and description of new wind power station

construction and operation. Wind power station location is Baltijsk municipality (Kaliningrad

region). Business plan was developed based on business offer of German company

Windkraftservice - und Handel GmbH. The main generative facilities have been selected are

windmills Nordex N90 with the power rating 2300 kWt; wind mill height is 80 m, blade span is

80 m. There are five wind mills will be installed and appropriate infrastructure such as

transformer station, transformer lines, roads and building sites will be constructed. Total wind

power station capacity is 11,5 MWt. Total investments is 12 205 thousand EUR, including

equipment purchasing cost is 11122 thousand EUR, buildings construction cost is 1083

thousand EUR.

Wind power station will be located on the north of Baltijsk municipality on shore of

Primorskaya bay. This location meets all the technical requirements as well as it is possible to

connect to existing electricity distribution system.

Taking into account climate conditions and technical characteristics of selected

equipment annual electricity production will be 31781,9 thousand kWt/h per year.

Cost price of electricity produced by wind power station is 0,591 RUR/ kWt.h at prices of

the year 2007. To pay all the allocated money back in time the selling price should be not less

than 1,38 RUR/ kWt.h (excluding VAT) (local tariff for electricity supply approved by the Tariff

committee for Baltijsk municipality for the year 2007).

Project will be financed from the different sources such as own funds of project initiator,

own funds of the companies which act as project partners at the rate of about 4 069 thousand

EUR (1/3rd of total investments) and credit of foreign bank at the rate of 8 136 thousand EUR

with credit period of 12 years and interest rate is 8%.

Taking into account abovementioned project appears effective and realizable and

secures following parameters:

• Net Present Value (for period -20 years and with interest rate - 8%) – 161,4 million RUR;

• Profit ratio – 41%;

• Simple pay back period – 9,6year;

• Discounted pay back period (discount rate is 8%) – 14,8 year;

• Internal Rate of Return – 12%.


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2. Existing facilities

The main elements of Kaliningrad region power industry are generating company JSC

“Yantarenergo” which deals with electricity generation, transmission and distribution as well as

JSC “Kaliningradskaya TETs-2”. Both of those companies are branches of RAO “US of Russia”

Other electricity sources owned by different companies are equipped with low-power

generating facilities (install capacities are verified from 0,5 up to 5000 kWt; total capacity is 70

thousand kWt) and used as reserved energy sources in a case of emergency, the didn’t have a

great influence upon the total energy balance of region .

Several types of power stations are operated on the territory of Kaliningrad region such

as Heat and Power Stations, small scale Hydro power Stations, renewable energy sourcessuch

as wind power stations.

Total installed capacity of power stations located in Kaliningrad region was 192 MWt in

the end of the year 1999. Towards the end of the year 2005 total installed capacity wasincreased up to 644 MWt due to the first unit of Kaliningrad TETs-2 had been put into operation.

Installed capacity of Kaliningrad power system for year 2000, 2004 and 2005.

HPS HPS Renewables Power plants

PeriodTotal,

MWtабс.

вел.%

абс.

вел.%

абс.

вел.%

абс.

вел.%

2000 193,4 130,3 67,4 1,7 0,9 1,4 0,7 60,0 31,0

2004 197,1 130,3 66,1 1,7 0,9 5,1 2,5 60,0 30,5

2005 643,5 576,7 89,6 1,7 0,3 5,1 0,8 60,0 9,3

2000 год

HPS

67%Hydro PS

0,9%

Renewabl

es

0,7%

Power

plants

31%

2005 годблок -

станции

9%нетрадиц.

0,8%

ГЭС

0,3%

ТЭС

90%

Structure of installed capacity for year 2000 and 2005, ( % of the total)

Source: JSC «Yantarenergo» (http://www.yantene.ru)

Following power stations are owned by JSC «Yantarenergo»: HPS «TETs-1 » in

Kaliningrad, Power station «GRES-2 » in Svetlij municipality, HPS in Gusev municipality, Hydro

Power Station « Pravdinskaya HPS-3 » in Pravdinsk municipality, Hydro Power Station

« Ozerskaya HPS» in Ozerskij municipality, Small scale Hydro Pwer Station in Zaozernij

municipality and Wind Mills Park consisted of 21 wind mill plants in Kulikovo village. Total

installed capacity of above mentioned power stations up to the end of the year 2005 came to

133,5 MWt.


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Most of existing power production facilities owned by JSC “Yantarenergo” are more then

20 years old with low capacity, therefore can not be considered as reliable energy sources for

Kaliningrad region. The biggest power station in the structure of JSC “Yantarenergo” is Power

station «GRES-2 » with installed capacity 114,8 MWt in Svetlij municipality. Необходимо

отметить, что в связи с высокими удельными расходами условного топлива на выработку

электроэнергии конденсационное оборудование ГРЭС-2 в настоящее время

законсервировано. В распоряжении ОАО «Янтарьэнерго» находятся также 3

гидроэлектростанции малой мощности: Правдинская ГЭС мощностью 1,14 МВт, Озерская

ГЭС – 0,5 МВт и Заозерная ГЭС – 0,053 МВт.

Within the period from 1998 till 2004 in cooperation with Danish partners joint

implementation project regarding construction of new Wind Mills Park with the total capacity of

5,1 MW. That was the first pilot project implemented with strong support of RSC UES of Russia,

Kaliningrad administration, Federal energy ministry and Environmental & Energy ministry of

Denmark. Danish Energy Authority and Danish company provided technical support of Wind Mill

Park construction within project implementation period.

Kaliningrad Heat and Power Station TETs-2 is one of the leading power generating

facilities of the regional electricity market. JSC “KaliningradskayaTETs-2” has been established

by RSC “UES of Russia” which owns 87,4% of shares. Remainder has been divided among

JSC “Yantarenergo” (1% of shares) and Russian Federation on behalf of Federal agency on

management of federal property (11,6 % of shares). First unit of TETs-2 inclusive 2 gas

turbines and 1 steam turbine, has been putted into operation in the end of the year 2005. The

total capacity of the station is 450 MW, heat capacity is 342 Gcal/h1. The estimated electricity

production is 2856,2 million kWh per year, heat production is 1661,5 thousand Gcal per year.

There are three more heat and power stations located on the territory of the region and

operated by different companies not dealing with the energy sector (TETs-8, TETs-9 and TETs-

10).

TETs-8 was operated by former pulp and paper factory JSC "Darita" and after its

bankruptcy for repayment of taxes debts had been handed over to Kaliningrad City Hall. There

were two back pressure turbines with generators in 6 МW each installed . However the turbine

and generating equipment is laid up for the moment and the boiler equipment is used with the

limited load.

TETs-10 (installed capacity is 36 MW) is owned by Sovetskij pulp and paper factory

which located in Sovetsk municipality. There are two extraction turbines (ПР-6-35/10/5), one is

back pressure turbine R-12-35/5 and another one is condensing turbine PT-12-35/10/1,2.

Basically the station is used for pulp and paper factory technological needs ЦБЗ, and during the

winter season provide heat produced to the district heating network of Sovetsk municipality.

TETs 9 with installed capacity of 12 MW is owned and operated by JSC “Cepruss”.

Distribution of the electric power in system practically is absent, therefore working capacity of

power station below established. Thermal energy is released{let off} for a heat supply of

Kaliningrad. It produces not so much electricity that is why operating capacity is lower than

installed one. Heat produced is delivered into the district heating network of the city.

1 At present heat produced is used for needs of second unit construction.


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According to estimations made the total amount of the electricity generated by TETs-2 in

the year 2006 was more than 2500 million kWh. The main reason not to operate TETs at full

loading is lack of the gas supplied for the region.

According to official report prepared by JSC “Yantarenergo” the bulk of electricity

(85%) is produced by heat and power production facilities which belong to JSC

“Yantarenergo”. Hydro Power Stations generate 12% of electricity and remaining 3% is

produced by wind mills. Within last 3 years electricity production increased by 33% and

for all that electricity probuced by wind mills was increased in five times.

Electricity generation, million kWt.h

2003 2004 2005

Total, 86,4 81,5 77,5

including:

HPS 69,7 64,2 62,1

GRES-247,3 45,7 42,5

Gusev HPS22,4 18,5 19,6

Hydro Power

Station10,1 11,8 10,1

HydroPS-38,7 9,8 8,4

Mini hydro PS

0,04 0,06 0,03Ozerskaya PS

1,4 1,9 1,7

Wind mills 6,6 5,5 5,2

Structure of electricity produced by JSC

«Yantarenergo» production facilities in 2005

г.

Источник : ОАО « Янтарьэнерго» (http://www.yantene.ru)

Up to the year 2006 there was a deficit of electricity in Kaliningrad region therefore more

than 90% of power is imported from UES of Russia as transit through Lithuania. Within

the period from 2003 till 2005 local electricity production didn’t exceed 3% of the total

electricity demand of the region .

In the table below there are figures on amounts of electricity produced and

amounts of electricity imported for the period 2003-2005.


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Comparison of electricity produced and electricity imported during 2003-2005, mln.kWt.h

2003 Share, % 2004 Share, % 2005 Share, %

Own production 86,4 2,8 81,5 2,5 77,5 2,3

Imported from FOREM 3113,3 3259,7 3325,3

Purchased from P&P factories 3,7 4,5 8,1

Total purchased 3117, 97,2 3264,2 97,5 3333,4 97,7

Источник : ОАО « Янтарьэнерго» (http://www.yantene.ru)

Putting into operation of TETs-2 in 2006 increased amount of electricity produced by

Kaliningrad power facilities up to 50% of the total power demand.

Energy system of Kaliningrad region includes following elements: high-voltage

transmission lines on 330, 110 and 60 kW, transmission grid LEP with capacity 10 and less kW,

3 transformer stations with capacity 330/110 kW and more than 40 transformer stations with

capacity 110 (60)/10 kW (see fig. 1). Extensive transmission grid provides reliable electricity

supply of consumers all over Kaliningrad region. Total extent of transmission lines of the

Kaliningrad region makes 13756 kms. In 1966 the Kaliningrad energy supply system has been

incorporated with a Northwest energy supply system and at present it is owned by UES of

Russia.

Transmission lines of Kaliningrad region (330-110 kWt)

Источник : ОАО» Янтарьэнерго».

Operation of a power supply system of Kaliningrad region is provided due to cross-flow

of electricity from UES of Russia through Lithuania by high-voltage transmission lines with

capacity (330 kW). Actual transmission line capacity is 700 МW, however in separate modes it

is reduced up to 200 МW. By an estimation, keeping existing demand growth rate at the

constant level after the year 2010 all the potentialities to purchase electricity from other regionsof Russia will be completely exhausted. At the same time high rates of economic development


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of region against a background of low installed power per employee of Kaliningrad region

national economy create preconditions for the further growth of a electricity demand.

During last years there is a continuous growth of electricity consumption in all trades,

except for an agricultural production. According to state statistics, the total amount of

the electricity consumed since 2000 has increased for 35 % and in 2005 has made

4,058 billion

kWh

30133220 3256

34283568

4058

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

м л н .

к В т ч

Electricity consumption o Kaliningrad region for the period 2000-2005 гг.

Источник : Федеральная служба госстатистики по Калининградской области.

The main electricity consumer in the total structure of electricity consumption is serves sector

and housing sector. Electricity consumption has increased by 17,7 % in 2004 concerning a

level of 2000. Considering housekeeping electricity consumption per head has increased by12,6

% , in sphere of services - by 23,3 %. Compare federation level specific electricity demand in

Kaliningrad region (1843 kWh/per head.) in 2004 was higher, for instance housekeeping sector

by 24,5 %, services sector by 24,9 %. Such break in parameters, except of continued

electrification of housing sector and services sector, is explained by the feature of separate

electricity consumers statistics..

Electricity demand in housekeeping and services sectors

2000 2004

Parameters Servicessector

housekeeping totalServicessector

housekeeping total

Population,thousandpeople

949 950

Electricityconsumption,mln. kWh

712,2 774,0 1486,2 879,1 872,2 1751,3

Specific

electricityconsumption,kWh/year

750,0 816,0 1566,0 925,0 918,0 1843,0


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At the same time, existing consumption level of electricity consumed by population of

Kaliningrad region is much lower than similar parameters, in the countries of Western and the

Eastern Europe. For instance, in the end of 90th annual specific electricity consumption in

Norway was 22500 kWh/head, in Sweden - 13800 kWh/head., in Germany - 6300 kWh/head,

Bulgaria - 4900 kWh/head., Poland - 3900 kWh/head, in Kaliningrad region this parameter was

1843 kWh/head in 2004. It determines the further growth of electricity consumption, first of all by

housekeeping sector.

Another large electricity consumer in Kaliningrad region is the industry (24,3 % in 2004).

However the further growth of industry electricity consumption the industry are not so

obvious: more than half of consumption falls on timber and paper industry, which future

in region is doubtfully, and only about 30 % falls on fast-growing industries such as

assembly of furnishing and cars, the food-processing industry.

According to forecasts of the European experts (research under TACIS projects in 2001,

2006-2007) reconstruction of industrial sector will change existing proportions in electricity

consumption. So, by TACIS experts it is predicted, that by 2010 industrial sector will become

the largest consumer of Kaliningrad region again. It will consume from 40 up to 50 % of a total

electricity consumption. The share of the population consumption will a little be reduced

(presumably - up to 30 %). Thus, in foreign experts opinion, both specific consumption, and

structure of a electricity consumption in Kaliningrad region will approximate to European

parameters.

Under the forecast contained in Energy strategy of Russia, the electricity consumption of

the Kaliningrad region in a case of high development should make 4,2 billion kWh per year by

the end of the year 2010, thus the annual maximum electricity demand in region will be made

770-850 MW.

According to other forecast made by experts of project institute "Energosetproekt"

(Moscow) the total electricity demand of Kaliningrad region will make 1922 million kWh

by 2010 , and 2225 million kWh by the year 2020 (see fig.).


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Electricity demand forecast for the year 2020

0,114 0,107 0,107 0,100 0,105 0,1570,230

1,530 1,6011,687 1,751

1,790

1,922

2,013

0,270

0,270

0,715 0,6590,659

0,6990,725

0,726

0,679

0,737 0,7610,822

0,8660,966

1,436

1,640

0,0320,029 0,035 0,043 0,040 0,046 0,077 0,100 0,120

0,115

0,337

0,288

0,252

0,1100,0980,0950,0830,079

0,325

0,072

2,225

1,486

0,0350,0140,015

0,0140,013

0,011

0,270

0,680

0,614

1,843

0,683

0,000

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2000 г. 2001 г. 2002 г. 2003 г. 2004 г. 2005 г. 2010 г. 2015 г. 2020 г.

годы

, млрд. к т.ч

Строительство Произ-ные нужды сел-кого хоз-ваТранспорт Быт и сфера услугСобст-ные и произ-ные нужды эл-ций Потери в сетях АО и РАОПромышленность

3,010

3,260 3,220

5,220

3,428 3,568

3,777

4,840

5,800

Источник : ОАО “ Проектный институт “ Энергосетьпроект”

One of the main problems of consumers electricity supply are technical features of

Kaliningrad region energy system operation. At present the Baltic power system securing

reliable electricity supply of the region operate in parallel with Energy United System of Russia.

At the same time, as soon as Baltic States join to European Union they will disconnect their

power systems from the parallel operation with the Russian one and connect to European

Energy System. Therefore there are to options for Kaliningrad energy supply system: to be

synchronized with European Energy system or to be connected to Russian Energy System by

constructing new transmission lines to receive electricity fro Russia. Both options cannot

provide reliable electricity supply of the region and will result in tariff increase. Besides above-

mentioned options will not solve problem of energy safety securing of Kaliningrad region.

To prevent that it was considered to construct new Heat and Power Station

TETs-2 with installed power capacity 900 MW. In November, 2005 first power unit with

capacity 450 MW has been put into operation. Besides the Federal Goal Development


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program of Kaliningrad region contains the tasks on reconstruction of existing power

stations and increase in their installed capacity, including

- Heat and Power Station TETs-1 reconstruction (operate as heat only boiler)

by installing turbine type Т-12-35 and gas turbine with capacity 23 ;

- GRES-2 reconstruction in Svetlij municipality by replacing of existingequipment (installation of steam-gas unit with gas turbine type ГТ-110 and steam

turbine with capacity 50 MW);

- Reconstruction of Gusev TETs-1 by installing gas turbine unit type ПГУ-20;

- Completion of Pravdinskaya Hydro Power Stations HPS-3 and 4

reconstruction;

- Continuation of Zelenogradskaya wind mills power station construction up the

end the year 2010. There will 16 wind mills be installed with total capacity 3,7 MW.

All these measures realization will allow to increase electricity production in Kaliningrad

region and to cover future demand completely. But in the nearest future TETs-2 will be the

main electricity source.

TETs-2 is a gas fired station at the same time there is a luck of the gas supplied to

Kaliningrad region. To provide the region with the gas corresponding with the region gas

demand it is strictly recommended construction of new gas pipeline and allocation of special

gas limits for Kaliningrad region in GASPROM budget. While these problems remain not solved.

In conditions of increasing deficiency and high prices of fuel and energy

resources, feature of Kaliningrad region territorial location , the important role for region

is got with promotion of renewable energy sources . Unlike other Russian regions

Kaliningrad region has already experienced in wind mills operation and maintenance.

Hydro power is also common in the region due to two hydro power stations are in

operation now he. At the same time capacity of hydro power stations and wind mills

relatively small and do not bring large energy contribution into power supply of the

region..

Kaliningrad region has no any real resource opportunities for full securing of the energy

needs. Insufficiency of own fuel and energy resources puts traditional energy sector of the

region in full dependence on conditions of their deliveries from other regions of Russia through

territories of the foreign countries. Consequence of this is the strong energy dependence of

Kaliningrad region leading to reduction of economy stability functioning and social sphere and

potential threat to national interests of Russia in the region.


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3. Present wind power and perspectives for its further development in

the region

When solving the problem of Kaliningrad region energy supply renewable energy

sources, especially wind power are considered. By present time first steps in this direction are

already made.

According to Energy Efficiency Program of Kaliningrad region approved by the Law

«About the statement of Kaliningrad region Energy Efficiency Program for 2001-2005 »

renewable energy sources including wind power are considered as one of the basic directions

for Fuel and Energy Complex development. Possible wind mills locations, required quantity, and

electricity production for two variants of wind mills capacity such as 250 kW and 600 kW are

determined and technical potential of wind power for places most suitable by an expert

estimation for wind power development is evaluated. The estimated wind power potential is

about 1100 MW.

According to estimation made by Moscow project institute "Energosetproekt" experts the

largest possible scales of wind power development , are considered at the level of 110 MW in

the year 2010 and 220 Mw in the year 2020 accordingly. At the above specified capacities the

energy supply system can accept energy, produced by all wind power stations. The further

increase wind mills installed capacity will require to close down part of wind power stations that

means reduction of electricity production. Calculations on energy supply system stability have

shown an opportunity to accept energy from wind power station with capacity up to 200 MW

without conducting of additional decrement of capacity fluctuations, however increasing of

installed capacity of additional adjustable jet capacity sources up to 100 MW will be necessary.

That will provide stability of energy supply system in a case of short circuits..

The further increase of wind mills capacity is possible only in a case of heat recovering

that means utilization of the heat produced for hot tap water production and for the heating of

settlements and industrial companies (for example, for heating of feeding water used for boiler

stations). In this case wind power station total capacity will rise up to 350 MW. The installation

of automatically adjustable electro boilers with total capacity 150 MW, carrying out in a energy

supply system a role of a loading - regulator is strictly recommended. Thus, wind power station

development can solve the problem of heat supply.

The option to use wind power stations for heat production and heat supply is considered

separately. In this case total wind power stations total capacity can be increased by 2020 up to

1500-1800 MW in the region.

In 2000 within the framework of wind power development practical implementation the

Danish company " SЕАS Energy Service A.S. " with support of the Danish Energy Authorityand Russian Open Society " UES of Russia " has installed 5 wind mills (capacity 1 х 600 kw, 4 х

225 kw), in settlement Kulikovo and in 2002 Kaliningrad engineers installed 16 wind mills (with


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capacity 225 kw) more. Now Kulikovskaya wind power station consist of 21wind mills (Danish

production) with total capacity 5,1 MW.

At present the feasibility study of new off-shore wind mill park (with total capacity 50MW)

is under elaboration. Feasibility study is elaborated by Russian experts such as Russian Open

Society " UES of Russia ", JSC " NIIES " in cooperation with Danish experts Power

management of Denmark, "RAMBOLL"..

4. Evaluation of wind power potential and technical capacity for project

implementation

As a whole wind power technical potential of the region is estimated approximately in

75000 MW, electricity production is 90-120 billion kW.h (considering annual operational hours at

the level of 1200-1600 hours per year). At the same time the wind power technical potential for

the places (locations) most suitable by an expert estimation for wind power development is

determined in 1100 MW.

However to succeed with the project implementation it is necessary to estimate a level of

wind power potential in a concrete place of wind power station supposed location . An exact

estimation of wind power potential is complex enough and labor-intensive task. The most

reliable way of such estimation is carrying out of long experimental measurements directly in

researched area.

Long-term researching (a researched meteorological line in the Kaliningrad area

exceeds 20 years) show, that as a whole for the region no more than 9 % of the total

researching time is calm.

The most important characteristic of researched territory wind power potential is

the winds repeatability parameter in a operating sped range . On fig. 5-8 there is data

on values of this parameter depending on 6 standard gradation of winds: 0-1 km/s; 2-5

km/s; 6-11 km/s; 12-15 km/s; 16-20 km/s; 21 km/s and more, within different seasons of

the year, measured in zones of most active wind activity all over Kaliningrad region.2.

2 По данным, приведенным в публикации: Тупикин С.Н., Орлова Н.С. Ветроэнергетический потенциал

Калининградской области / Известия Русского географического общества. 1998, т. 130, вып. 6, с.84-91.


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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

п о в т о р я е м о с т ь

в е

т р а ,

%

0-1 2-5 6-15 16-20 21 и более

диапазон скорости ветра, м/с

Рис. 5. Повторяемость ветров различных скоростей по сезонам.

Пункт наблюдений - Калининград

Зима Весна Лето Осень

6,09,4 11,0

7,0

51,3

63,0 63,0

46,047,3

27,2

25,7

40,9

1,4 0,4 0,3 2,0 0,1 0 0 0,10,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

п о в т о р я е м

о с т ь

в е т р а ,

%

0-1 2-5 6-15 16-20 21 и более



Пункт наблюдений -Балтийск


0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

п о в т о р я е м о с т ь

в е т р а ,

%

0-1 2-5 6-15 16-20 21 и более



Пункт наблюдений - Пионерск



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0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

п о в т о р я е м о с т ь в е т р а ,

%

0-1 2-5 6-15 16-20 21 и более



Пункт наблюдений - Мамоново


In a view of majority of wind mills design features, electricity can be produced in a case

of certain interval of wind speed only, making operational range of wind mill. The parameter

describing a degree of wind mill capacity use from season to season called seasonal wind

factor (Кв) can be estimated based on wind repeatability of energy spectrum. The formula for

Кв calculation is:

Кв = Р / Д х 100 %,

where Р - total repeatability of wind operating speeds , Д - number of days for a season.

On fig. 9 there are values of parameter Кв for wind mill with operating range 4-20

km/s. The installations used in the project have wider operating range - 3-25 km/s,

therefore their efficiency will be a little bit higher..

КалининградБалтийск

Пионерск Мамоново

Зима

Весна

Лето

Осень

42

67

61

48

36

52

48

4246

56

5148

47

63

57

51

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Сезонный ветровой

коэффициент, %

Рис. 9. Динамика сезонного ветрового коэффициента


18/33



The level of wind power potential is determined by relief and conditions of locality

protection. That is why, the Baltic shore and gulfs within the whole year differs in higher

wind speeds and large quantity of gale-strength wind. So, according to researches, if

along a narrow coastal strip of Baltic sea mid-annual speed of a wind makes 7-8 km/s,

then in a small remoteness from the sea (about 20 kms) this value is reduced up to 5-6km/s. Thus, the most perspective areas for wind power development are the areas

located in so-called to " a zone of active wind activity » (see fig. 10). Baltijsk municipality

is an example of such an area and can be considered as location for new wind power

station installation..

Рис. 10. wind activity zones of Kaliningrad region.

i. Источник : Орлова Н .С .

Ветроэнергетические ресурсы

Калининградской области и возможности их

рационального использования . Автореф. дис .

…канд. геогр. наук . – Калининград, 1996, с .

10.

From fig. 9 it is obvious, that among 4 places were under researching located in

a zone of active wind activity, the best value of Кв parameter is in Baltiysk where within

the whole year the level of this parameter exceeds 50 % - the threshold level that shows

technical and economic feasibility of wind power use. During the autumn-winter period

when energy supply system is completely loaded, average winds repeatability

parameter within wind mills operating designed in the project, stably exceeds 65 % (for

Baltijsk municipality) . Presence of stable winds of required operating range guarantees

rather stable wind mills operation in Baltiysk during certain period. According to the

long-term supervision fixed by meteorological station Kosa (it is located in 2 kms to the

west of Baltiysk), the average annual speed of a wind in this area is 7,8 km/s that is the

best parameter on the territory of the Kaliningrad region..

1

2 3

1 – zone of active wind activity

(wind power density 600-700 W/m2);

2 – zone of medium wind activity

(wind power density 400-600 W/m2);

3 – zone of low wind activity (wind

power density 200-300 W/m2).


19/33



Thus, taking into account results of wind power analysis and the available

technical solutions and technologies, the most suitable wind power station location is

north part of Baltiysk municipality. Electricity produced will be delivered into the grid by

two existing transmission branch lines (with capacity 60 kW) as soon as station is

connected to Baltijsk energy supply system. Previous researches (conducted by JSC "

Institute " Energosetproekt », in 2004) have determined, that connection new windpower station is not only technically possible, but also will not require any significant

reconstruction of existing grid configuration. In a case of station operates with full load

during a winter the power flows in the grid with capacity 66 kW can change essentially,

down to change of power flows directions in separate transmission lines. However all

parts of he grid remain loaded poorly, power flows between 66 kW transmission lines

and 110 kW transmission lines decrease. Thus, There will be no problem with thermal

stability{of the grid. In a case if transmission line (capacity 110kW) 110 Svetlogorsk -

Pionersk is under the maintenance operating mode of the lines with capacities 66 and

110 kW respectively remains sufficient both considering voltage level, and transmissionlines load. At the same time to compensate reactive power consumed by wind mills'

asynchronous generators it is required to install additional automatically controlled

reactive capacity source for transformer station which located in Yantarnij settlement.

5. Existing tariffs and state regulation

Tariff and billing systems of energy sector, are a subject of state regulation and

state control. There is Federal law from 17.08.1995 №147-ФЗ « About natural

monopolies », which regulate following issues:

- Electricity prices and tariffs;

- Limit electricity price levels (maximum and/or minimum);

- Prices (tariffs) for system safety securing;

- Prices (tariffs) for services of electricity supplier;

- Prices (tariffs) for connection to existing grid;

- Other costs.

Regulation of above mentioned prices (tariffs) is carried out in the course of pricing

basics and prices (tariffs) regulatory framework approved by the Government of the Russian

Federation. State regulation of electricity prices for consumers of Kaliningrad region, is carried

out by Regional Tariff Committee.

Methodology of pricing and procedure of tariffs adjustment and approval for fuel

and energy complex is determined by regulation of Federal Tariff Committee. There are

two models used for prices calculation model «costs plus the proved profit» and so-


20/33



called "cross subsidizing". Though according the governmental regulation from

26.09.1997 № 1231 "cross subsidizing" method should not be used any longer by the

end 2001, but taking into account the social importance of tariffs and payment ability of

population it is still applied for sometime. Result of such methodology application is the

differentiation of electricity tariffs for various consumer groups.

According to the pricing method accepted basis for tariffs regulation and calculation is

the costs i.e. electricity production costs, transportation costs, distribution costs, electricity

market operation costs, maintenance and operation costs. Considering these costs and settled

normative for the companies' profitability, administered electricity tariffs for various categories of

consumers are established.

The Basis for electricity tariffs (prices) calculations is the balance of electricity produced

which is approved by Federal Tariff Committee for each region. The basic components ofaverage electricity tariff in Kaliningrad region are price of electricity purchased and

transportation cost (about 70 % of the tariff). The wholesale market price of electricity purchase

Цopt pays off as the average value of the purchase price established by controlled sector of the

wholesale market (it is estimated by Federal Tariff Committee) and the purchase prices

established by competitive (free) sector of the wholesale market. On the top of that costs for

electricity production (electricity produced by Kaliningrad HPS) are also added..

Considering above mentioned expenses, and also other legal costs of JSC "

Yantarenergo", the Federal Tariffs Committee settles selling electricity price, and the

Government of Kaliningrad region (regional Tariff Department of Kaliningrad

Government) settles the prices for separate categories of consumers of Kaliningrad

region. According to the legislation, these prices should not be lower than average cost

price of electricity production, transmission and distribution for all consumers in the

region.

The tariffs and prices estimation is carried out based on:

- clause 5 of Federal law «About state regulation of electricity and heat tariffs and prices

in Russian Federation»;

- item 25 of “Pricing basics”;

- item 3 of “Regulation rules”;

- item 4 RF Government decree from 30th of May 2000 № 418 «About tariffs and prices

for electricity consumed by population».

The average electricity price settled for energy suppliers operating on the territory of

Kaliningrad region for the year 2007 is 1,02 RUR./kWh, for Baltijsk municipality (MO RF 476th of

the Navy) is 1,38 RUR/kWh.


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Electricity prices for end users vary in a range from 0,8 up to 1,87 RUR/kWh

depending on a category of consumers, voltage ranges and time of day and other conditions. In

2008, according to available forecasts, the level of average tariff will increase by 8-10 %.

The main reasons for electricity tariffs growth are increase in price electricity purchased

from wholesale market, and also the high cost price of electricity, produced by local powerstations. The cost price of electricity produced by power station owned by " Yantarenergo " in

2004 was not less than 1,8 RUR/kWh that was 1,75 times more compare the average price

had been settled by Tariff Committee for the same period. By estimations, in 2005-2006, due to

increase of fuel demand the cost price increased not less than by 30 %.

The certain hopes for reduction of electricity production cost price have been connected

with putting into operation of new TETs-2. However, by the preliminary data received during

pre-production operation of the first unit and taking into account growth of fuel pricesl (natural

gas), the cost price of electricity production has increased from 0,93 RUR/kWh (estimated

value) up to 1,3-1,5 RUR/kWh.

6. Required equipment and selected technology

Wind power installation N90 being basic unit of wind power station, produced by

West-German company « Nordex Borsig Energy GmbН » , is typical wind mill equipped

with stall adjustment, trilobite screw and the asynchronous generator. Application of theasynchronous generator is required according technical conditions of wind mill

operation within conditions of sharp and often changes of wind speed and low

инерционностью rotating parts lag. The operation of wind mill is considered in parallel

mode with power supply system operation, use of the asynchronous generator removes

a problem of " reactive capacity», shifting it on a power supply system. Stall adjustment

meant regulation based on use of blades with different length, provides stabilization of

wind mill capacity in a case of wind speed is more than 12 km/s. In a case of rated wind

speed is 15 km/s wind mill capacity is 2300 kw. In the technical specifications there is

the curve of wind mill efficiency measured for various wind speeds with operating range

(from 3 up to 25 km/s). The supplier of the equipment guarantees maximum deviations

from curve estimated values are not more +/-10 %

In a case of annual wind speed equals to 7,8 km/s, capacity factor will make

0,31, that meets the average standard values of this parameter for effectively working

installations (0,2-0,4). Actual capacity factor for wind mills type W-4200/600 are in

operation since March, 1998 is about 0,2.


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All wind mills' components are submitted by the standard units made by well-

known German producer. Automatic and conntrolled systems secure the continuous

remote control of the basic technical parameters of wind mills operation, such as: rotor

swiftness, generated capacity, temperature of generator windings. All

deviations{rejections} from normal values of these parameters are automatically fixedand transferred to the main control panel that provides an opportunity of fast and

operative reaction to arising supernumerary situations

Development of technical specifications and project elaboration is carried out by the

company « Windkraftservice-und Handelsgesellschaft mbH and Co. Projekt KG » (Gernmany).

All the construction works, civil works and equipment maintenance are the responsibility of

equipment producer « Nordex Borsig Energy GmbН ».

According to draft sale contract, before to start construction work it is required to make a

soil analysis in the area wind power station will be installed, to establish infrastructure such as

roads, platforms for transport parking, storage places to store equipment while constricting,

installation of transmission lines to connect wind power station to existing grid etc.

All the above mentioned activities will be carried out by the Kaliningrad

construction and maintenance companies. Installation of some of metal constructions

could be conducted by Kaliningrad specialized companies that will allow to reduce

construction costs allocated in the budget of the project.


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7. Investment plan

Total investments for construction of wind power station consisted of five wind

mills type N90 is 12 205 thousand EUR. Structure of investments and costs is given in

the table beow.

Investments required

Item Costs, thousand EUR

1. Buildings, total 1 083

1.1. Internal and external grids 219

1.2. Foundation (5 units) 296

1.3. Infrastructure development 122

1.4. Construction works and design work 246

1.5. Reserve for construction 200

2. Equipment , total 11 122

2.1. Wind mills, incl. transportation and maintenance (5 units) 10 910

2.2. Transformer station (5 units) 212

total 12 205

According technical specifications equipment operating period is 25 years. However

according to regional legislation, that determines norms of capital allowance for wind mills,

power electro technical equipment, transmission lines with voltage rate up to 35 kW, hence

average operating period of the wind power stations is 30 years.

For wind power station proper operation and maintenance it is necessary to involve

specially trained and prepared experts - electro mechanics. It is supposed, that for wind

mills maintenance specialized organization having corresponding licenses and

experience of such works conducting will be involved


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8. Production plan

Features of project product (electricity supplied into energy supply system of Kaliningrad

area) determine coincidence in time of electricity production and consumption. That is why the

quantity of product produced and product consumed is equal for each planning period of

investment project.

The initial data for calculation of the production program of the project are the following:

- forecast annual electricity production;

- electricity sale price .

Calculation of the forecast average annual electricity production is carried out based on

data of efficiency curve. Considering average wind speed in the area where wind power station

is located (the north Baltiysk) is about 8 km/s, the average power capacity of wind mill typeN90, will make about 825 kW. That means if 5 wind mills are in operation during8760 hours per

year then the total annual electricity production will be 36128,8 thousand kWh. To be more

precise and taking into account changeable weather conditions the average annual electricity

production will make 31781,9 thousand kWh per year .

During the first year of operation due to some adjustments and technical changes the

annual electricity production will be 21187,9 thousand kWh per year .

The sale price of electricity produced is estimated based on cost price and creditrepayments.

The calculation of the electricity cost price is given in the table below. Calculation

is executed for the first 12 years of wind power station operation..

Calculation of cost price

Parameter Average annual costs

1. Total cost price of electricity sold 18 785 тыс. руб.

including: production costs 2 341 тыс. руб.amortization 16 444 тыс. руб.

2. Electricity production 31781,9 тыс. кВтч

3. Unit cost price 0,591 руб./кВтч

Thus, estimated cost price of electricity produced by wind power station, including

expenses for wind mills operation will make 0,591 RUR /kWh.. For comparison, the estimated

cost price of electricity, produced by Kaliningrad TETs-2,was not less than 1,3 RUR /kWh in

2006 .


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9. Environmental and technical safety

At present there is no experience of long expirience wind power station operation which

consist of wind mills with capacity more than 1 MW , therefore in our country there are no hard

data necessary for an objective evolvation of wind power stations influence on enviroment.

Short term of existing wind power station operation which located in Kulikovo settelment does

not allow to evoluate its influence on the environment.

Experience of wind power stations construction and operation in other countries shows,

that in comparison with traditional types of power stations (heat, hydraulic, nuclear) wind power

is more ecologically clean and doesn't make negative influence on an environment, living

condition and economic activitie of the population.

As major factors of wind power station's influence on an environment are the following:

- Noise, low-frequency sound fluctuations and a radio noise produced by wind

turbines;

- Change of a natural landscape when power station is constructed:

- Influence on migration and living conditions of nesting birds.

In some of the western countries, where wind energy is intensively enough used

(Germany, Netherlands, Denmark), there are some normative determining a marginal noise

level when wind mills is in operation especially for residential areas in the afternoon is 50 dB

and at night is 35 dB. Besides according to the specifications accepted in these countries,

minimally allowable distance of wind mill from apartment houses should be not less than 300

m, from roads - 20-75 m, from transmission lines - 39-52 m.

For wind mill "Nordex" model considered in the project, according to technical

specifications, the maximum level of noise at wind speed 8 km/s on distance of 50 m from a

tower makes of 99,9 dB. But, taking into account big remoteness of wind mills from living zones

the influence of wind mills' noise will be insignificant.

The researches which have been carried out in Netherlands, have shown minimal wind

mills' influence on ornothofauna. For average sizes wind mills the chances to defeat migrating

birds in the afternoon is 3 %, but the major part of birds passing by wind mills at the level much

higher then blades are. On the other hand, it is considered, that for night migrants and day time

migrants in weather with bad visibility wind mills should be less dangerous, than the other high-

altitude buildings created by the human being (a TV and radio towers, transmission lines,

beacons, etc.) due to wind mills' rotating blades create effect of the prevention..

Researches have shown absence of any influence caused by blades rotation or noise

produced on a living condition of meadow birds. Concerning fed and having a rest birdst their


26/33



number within all years of supervision remained enough constant and not corresponded with a

construction of wind power stations.

Results of the analytical and field researches which have been conducted in the USA,

concerning possible influence of wind power on wild plants and animal through change of their

dwelling also have shown, that deviation of the microclimate basic characteristics within stationleeward zone does not exceed size of natural fluctuations.

Thus, according to researches available now, possible negative wind power station

influence on vegetative and fauna is minimal, and consequences of its operation cannot render

harm to the natural environment..

Wind power station construction require certain peace of land. The area in Baltijsk

municipality assigned for wind power station construction is located in nature

conservation zone of Baltic sea shore. The specified features do not suppose other economic

use of the selected area. However construction and operation of wind power station do not

provide negative influence on the natural environment and, at the correct organization of works,

is not connected to infringement of a vegetative and soil cover.

Existing wind power stations create potential danger to health and life of people. The

possible basic threats are the following:

- tearing off of one of wind mills blades which can be thrown away on distance up to

300 m from wind mill tower;

- destruction of wind mill as a result of hurricanes, earthquake influence;

- ignition of the equipment and occurrence of other non-staff situations when wind mill

operate ;

- icing of wind mill tower and blades during the autumn-winter period, that can result to

tearing off of ice splinters;

- threat of operation stuff life when conducting the maintenance of wind mills.

Technical safety during wind power station operation will be provided by establishment

of nature-conservative zone not less than 300 m, strict observance of safety measures and

periodical maintenance of wind mills

wind mill margin of safety, according to the technical specifications is designed for the

maximal speed of a wind of 65 km/s, that not less than on 30-35 % exceeds the speed limits of

a wind at coast of the Kaliningrad region. There are no other natural factors in the region,

capable to result in destruction of wind mill.

As a whole, experience of a wind power station construction and operation in Denmark,

Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, the USA, and other countries shows, that wind mills are one of


27/33



the most friendly environmental and technically safe sources of electricity production,

minimizing negative influence on the natural environment, and people health. Construction of

wind power station consisting of 5wind mills with total capacity 31,8 million kWh will allow, due

to reduction of electricity production at HPS of the region, to reduce emission of oxides of

nitrogen (NOx), oxides of sulfur (SOx), oxide of carbon (СО2), firm particles in an atmosphere.

According to calculations, only annual reduction of СО2 emission will make 28604 tons, that,

according to KIOTO protocol, will allow to Russia to use the right on sale of emission quotas

equal to amount of 143 thousand euro per year.

Use of a wind power from ecology point of view is the most comprehensible

variant of the energy sector development..

10. Financial plan

10.1. Assumptions, accepted for financial analysis

Calculation of the financial plan basic parameters is carried out according to UNIDO

methodology and Methodical recommendations on evaluation of investment projects efficiency.

Planning period for estimated parameters is 20 years. Duration of planning interval is

accepted equal to 1 year.

Calculations of financial plan parameters are executed in real terms, fixed on a level of

the second half-year 2007. As the product of the project is the electricity and it will be sold at

the local electricity market, so the rouble is accepted as basic monetary unit of calculations. In

a case of other units use there is a fixed exchange rate equal to 1 roubles = 0,02857 EUR. This

rate is fixed for the whole period of financial plan estimation.

10.2. Inputs

10.2.1. T AXES

To estimate project tax burden the standard taxation system applied for producers of

industrial goods is used. Therefore, according to the Russian Federation Tax code industrialcompanies pay following taxes:

- The VAT, at a rate of 18 %;

- The profit tax , at a rate of 24 % of the taxable profit;

- The property tax, at a rate of 2,2 % of taxable property cost.

When calculating profit tax and property tax there is a possibility to get tax incentives

given for investors, according to the Law of the Russian Federation from 10.01.2006 №16-ФЗ «

About Special economic zone in Kaliningrad region and about changes in some regulations of

Russian Federation legislation ».


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Besides above mentioned taxes, the companies will annually transfer rent for the area

used at a rate of 1950 euros in the local budget .

Other kinds of taxes and payments in budgets are not taken into account.

10.2.2. Nomenclature product prices

The project provides production of electricity. Electricity planned price is

accepted at a level, of the tariff settled by Regional Tariff Committee of Kaliningrad

region for 2007 for MO RF 476th Power Supply of the Navy located in Baltijsk

municipality at a rate of 1,38 roubles for kWh (excluding the VAT).

10.2.3. Production plan

In production plan the normative discount for incomplete use of wind power station

power capacity (according to technical calculations made, the total wind power station capacity

is 36128,8 thousand kWh per year) at the rate of 12 % is taken into account.

Year

№ Type of the product Unit.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1. ElectricityThousand

kWh0,0 21 187,9 31 781,9 31 781,9 31 781,9 31 781,9 31 781,9

The annual wind power station designed capacity is estimated in 31781,9

thousand kWh. The planned production capacity will be reached in 2010.

10.2.4. Operational costs

According the data of German company Windkraftservice-und Handelsgesellschaft mbH,

the main operational costs are the following: maintenance and repair, land rent, property

insurance. There are contingencies reserves in the budget of the project will be used in a case

of additional expenses for station maintenance and operation Part of the electricity produced will

be used for station own needs, which also concerns to indirect costs of the project. Proceeding

from this, calculation of operational costs for the first years of station operation is the following:

Thousand RUR

Budget line 20092010 and

further

Land rent 68 68

Property insurance 1 088 1 088

Maintenance and repair 0 750

Electricity consumed for own needs 57 85

Other operational costs 151 227Total 1 364 2 218


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It is fixed that separate costs will be increased pro rata to volume of electricity produced.

10.2.5. Investment costs

The description of capital investments necessary for project implementation is given in chapter

«Investment plan». According calculations, submitted by German partners, the total amount of

investments is 12205 thousand EUR..

Item Costs, thousand EUR

1. Buildings, total 1 083

1.1. Internal and external grids 219

1.2. Foundation (5 units) 296

1.3. Infrastructure development 122

1.4. Construction works and design work 246

1.5. Reserve for construction 200

2. Equipment , total 11 122

2.1. Wind mills, incl. transportation and maintenance (5 units) 10 910

2.2. Transformer station (5 units) 212

total 12 205

The order and size of assets amortization are accepted in accordance with existing

specifications (« Classification of the fixed assets included in amortization groups » approved by

Government of the Russian Federation from January, 1, 2002 № 1) and in accordance with data

received from German design company. Thus, amortization norms of main power equipment

are accepted at a rate of 4 %, constructions and other production facilities at he rate of 3 %.

For proper estimation of amortization level the "line method" is used.

10.3. Estimation of sales proceeds

According to accepted construction schedule and putting in operation the volume of

electricity production and supply in 2009 will make 21187,9 thousand kWh, and since 2010 will

be increased up to 31781,9 thousand kWh per year. At the forecast prices of electricity supply

the total amount of sales proceeds will be the following:

тыс. руб.

Sales return 2008 2009 2010 and further

Electricity, total 0 34 502 51 754

including:

- sales return (excluding VAT) 0 29 239 43 859

- VAT 0 5 263 7 895


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10.4. Financial sources

There are two options for investments:

- Own funds of the project initiator at a rate of 1/3 from total amount of project

investments (4068,5 thousand EUR);

- The long-term bank loan at a rate of 8136 thousand EUR given for the period of 12

years with the interest rate is 8 % .

Payment of the basic part of debt and interests will be carried out on a flexible way

considering liquidity factor at the level of 1.

On the diagram the schedule of external financing of the project is given.

0317

561 606 654 706 643 694739 796 857

921643

0

81367819

7259

6653

5999

5293

4650

3956

3216

2420

1564

643

0 00

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

т ы с .

е в

р о

Поступление денег от кредита

Погашение основного долга

Задолженность на конец текущего

периода

10.5. Cost-effectiveness

The estimation of investment project cost effectiveness executed with use of a

method of cash flow discounting, at the rate of discounting 8 % and estimation period is

20 years, gave the following results::

• Net Profit Value (NPV) – 161,4 million RUR.;

• Net Profit Value Rate (NPVR) – 41%;

• Pay Back Period (PBP) – 9,6 years;

• Discounting Pay Back Priod (DPBP) – 14,8 years;

• Internal Rate of Return (IRR) – 12% .

The schedule of pay back is given on the diagram below.


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-500 000

-400 000

-300 000

-200 000

-100 000

0

100 000

200 000

" 0 "

2 0 0

8

2 0 0

9

2 0 1

0

2 0 1

1

2 0 1

2

2 0 1

3

2 0 1

4

2 0 1 5

2 0 1

6

2 0 1 7

2 0 1

8

2 0 1

9

2 0 2

0

2 0 2

1

2 0 2

2

2 0 2

3

2 0 2

4

2 0 2 5

2 0 2

6

2 0 2 7

Дисконтированный поток нарастающим итогом

11. Project stability analysis

11.1. Break-even level

The make-out level is given In figure below.

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

и з д

е р ж к и ,

т ы с .

р у б .

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

у р о в е н ь б е з у б ы т о ч н о с т и

Условно-постоянные изд ержки Условно-переменные издержки Уровень безубыточности

Costs and make-out level

The project is determined as a stable and can reflect any negative changes of economicconditions. As soon as debt is repaid the make-out level will be reduced from 0,8 up to 0,4-0,5,

considering recommended value is not more than 0,7-0,6.

Thus, the company will be operated without loss in a case of electricity production

reduction up to 25425 thousand kWh per year in the beginning of the project and up to 14302

thousand kWh per year as soon as the debt is repaid completely.

.


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11.2. Sensitivity analysis

In conditions of high uncertainty of the basic economic parameters used when

forecasting of project financial parameters, it is necessary to estimate influence rate of possible

deviations of the initial data from forecast values on final results. To do this the sensitivity

analysis is used. Following parameters has been selected: - electricity supply price level; - level of operational costs; - A level of constant investment expenses for power station construction and

equipping.

Changing of Net Profit Value depending on above listed parameters changing is given

below.

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130%

Ч Д Д ,

т ы с .

р у б .

Цена реализации Эксплуатационные затраты Инвестиционные затраты

Sensitivity analysis

As can be seen from the diagram the electricity supply price has a greatest influence on

aggregate result of the project. In a case of reduction of the product realization average price

more than by 32 % the project becomes inefficient. Possible deviations in investments and

operational costs have a light influence on financial results of the project.

It is necessary accept the project as stable due to the fact that estimated deviation of

basic parameters much more exceeds their possible deviation. Besides the electricity price

(tariff) is adjusted by the state, and its value is accepted at a level of the bulk buyer – MO RF

“476th Power Supply of the Navy” for 2007. In addition the property insurance is stipulated by

the project conditions, which will allow to minimize the technical risks during the period station

operation..


33/33


Appendices

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EEKAA BusinessPlanBaltiskWindFarm-KAL Eng

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