Education Demographics and Latinos - College Board · Changing U.S. Demographics . U.S. Population...

Education Demographics

and Latinos

Mark Hugo Lopez

January 29, 2013

The Office of Diversity Initiatives Webinar

The College Board is a mission-driven organization that connects students to college success and opportunity. The organization promotes excellence and equity in America’s educational system through its programs and services in college readiness and college success, and through research and advocacy on behalf of students, educators and schools.

Changing U.S. Demographics

U.S. Population by Race & Nativity: 2010 Fastest Growth By Hispanics and Asians

Total U.S. Population — 309 million

Hispanic 50.5 million

16%

Black*38 million

12%

Asian* 14 million

5%

White* 197 million

64%

Source: 2010 U.S. Census.

The New Face of America

Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2010 American Community Survey

68% 11%

13% 5%

Ages 25 or older Asian

Hispanic

Black

White



57% 14%

20%

5%

Ages 18-24

68% 11%

13% 5%

Ages 25 or older Asian

Hispanic

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Black White White



55%

14%

22%

4%

Ages 6-17 Asian

Hispanic

Black White



51%

14%

25%

5%

Ages 0-5

55%

14%

22%

4%

Ages 6-17 Asian

Hispanic

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Black White White

87%

10% 11%12%

12%

13%

13%

14%

47%

85%

70%76%80%83%

67% 65% 60%56%

52%

11%

13%

13%

13%

13%

13%

5%9%

6%4%3%

14% 16% 19% 23% 26% 29%

9%8%7%6%5%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

White* Black* Hispanic Asian*

Hispanic Share Doubles to 29% by 2050— Asian Share also Doubles

Source: Pew Hispanic Center population estimates & projections (2008). *Not Hispanic.

Percent of Total Population

U.S. Hispanic Population Four Decades of Growth

14.622.4

35.3

50.5

1980 1990 2000 2010

In millions

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

50.5

3522

154.0

57

128

105

01950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Middle "Baseline" Immigration

Hispanic Growth Likely to Continue (Largest “Minority” Since ~2001)

Population in millions

Hispanic Immigrants Exceed Births from 1970;


3.1

5.67.0

4.4

8.1

3.1

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s

Hispanic Births (millions)Hispanic Immigrants (millions)% Foreign-Born for Hispanics

Hispanic Immigrants Exceed Births from 1970; Pattern Reverses in 2000s


3.1

9.0

5.67.37.0

4.4

8.1

3.1

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s


Hispanic Births Exceed Immigrants from 2000; Percent Foreign-Born Has PEAKED

Source: Pew Hispanic Center population estimates & projections (2008).

3.1

9.0

11.3

13.9

16.5

19.3

5.67.3

10.3

7.0

4.4

8.1 8.49.3

7.7

3.1

14%

18%

28%

35%

40%38%

36%

33%

40% 40%

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s


Hispanic Population is Younger

Native-Born Hispanics are Younger

Latino School Enrollments

Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the October Current Population Survey (CPS)

Growing Hispanic Representation in Public Schools and Colleges

23.9

16.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Pre-K through 12th-grade public school enrollment, ages 3 and older

College enrollment, ages18-24

2011

%

Hispanic share of enrollment

HISPANICS IN PUBLIC SCHOOLS

Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the October 2011 Current Population Survey (CPS)

Racial and Ethnic Composition of Public Schools by Grade, 2011

53

46

51

52

55

24

26

26

25

21

15

18

13

14

16

8

10

10

9

8

White Hispanic Black Other

All

Nursery school

KindergartenElementary

school

High school

(%)

YOUNG HISPANIC COLLEGE STUDENTS


College Enrollment of 18- to 24-Year-Olds, 2010-2011

(in thousands)

2010 2011 Change Percentage

Change All 12,213 12,570 357 3%

Hispanic 1,814 2,079 265 15% White 7,663 7,882 219 3% Black 1,692 1,639 -53 -3% Asian 811 748 -63 -8%


Hispanics the Largest Minority at Four-year Colleges and Universities

(millions of 18- to 24-year-old students)

5.6 6.0

1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2010 2011

White Hispanic Black Asian


Hispanic High School Completion is at a Record Level

(% of 18- to 24-year-old Hispanics)

76.3

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2011

%


Hispanic College Enrollment Rate is at a Record Level

(% of 18- to 24-year-old high school completers)

45

51 46

67

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

White

Black

Hispanic

%

Asian

Some of the College Enrollment Growth may Reflect the Depressed Youth Labor Market

Source: Richard Fry, Hispanic College Enrollment Spikes, Narrowing Gaps with Other Groups

67.8

62.8

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Great Recession begins

Great Recession ends

%

2011

20- to 24-year-old employment to population

WHAT IS AT STAKE?

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, The Condition of Education 2012

Educational Attainment of 25- to 29-year-olds, 2011

13

39

20

56

Hispanic NH White NH Black NH Asian

(% with bachelor’s degree or higher)

20072010

20132016

20192022

20252028

20312034

20372040

20432046

2049

total school-age popHispanic school-age pop

School-age Population (in millions)

54

73

11

28

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, National Population Projections Released 2008

Hispanic Children Are Projected to be the Major Growing Group of Children

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, National Population Projections Released 2008

58%

38%

20%

39%

15% 11%

4% 6%

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

2031

2034

2037

2040

2043

2046

2049

% of School-age Population

NH white Hispanic NH black NH asian

Hispanics Projected to be the Largest School-age Population by 2050

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Characteristics by Race and Ethnicity, 2011 and A New Look at Long-term Labor Force Projections to 2050

Civilian Labor Force, 2011 and Projected 2050

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Total Hispanic NH White Black Asian

2011 2050 (in thousands)

40-year Work-life Earnings by Education for Hispanic Full-time, Full-year Workers

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Education and Synthetic Work-Life Earnings Estimates, September 2011

Male Female

9 - 12th grade 1.1 0.8

High School completer 1.3 1.0

Some college 1.7 1.3

Associate's degree 1.8 1.4

Bachelor's degree 2.1 1.7

Master's degree 2.8 2.3

Professional degree 3.1 2.3

Doctorate degree 3.1 2.6

In millions of $

Unauthorized Immigrant Childhood Arrivals

States with Largest Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010

In thousands

Source: Pew Hispanic Center, 2011.

Estimated Population Range

U.S. Total 11,200 (10,700 - 11,700)

California 2,550 (2,350 - 2,750) Texas 1,650 (1,450 - 1,850) Florida 825 (725 - 950) New York 625 (525 - 725)

New Jersey 550 (425 - 650) Illinois 525 (425 - 625) Georgia 425 (300 - 550) Arizona 400 (275 - 500)

North Carolina 325 (240 - 425) Maryland 275 (200 - 325) Washington 230 (140 - 325) Virginia 210 (170 - 250)

1.5 1.0

2.1

4.5

2000 2005 2010

Children with at Least One Unauthorized Immigrant Parent

Population in millions

Source: Pew Hispanic Center, 2011

U.S.-born children

Unauthorized immigrant children

Unauthorized Immigrants Ages 30 and Under Eligible for DACA

Source: Pew Hispanic Center.

61% 55%

45%

39% Immediately

In the future

Potentially eligible Ineligible

2.7 million 1.7 million

950,000

770,000

Many Know Someone Who Has or Will Apply for DACA

Percent of Latinos saying…

Source: 2012 National Survey of Latinos.

31

24 37

28 37

48

26

Nativity

Among the foreign born

All Latinos

Registered voters

Native born

Foreign born

U.S. citizen

Legal resident

Not a U.S. citizen or a legal resident

Obama’s Program for Unauthorized Immigrant Childhood Arrivals

Percent saying…


33

9

13

5

12

63

89

85

93

86

Disapprove Approve

Hispanics by nativity

U.S.

Registered voters

Native born

Foreign born

General population

All Hispanics

Issue Priorities for Latinos in 2012 Percent of Latino registered voters saying “extremely important”


55

54

50

36

34

33

Education

Jobs and the economy

Health care

Federal budget deficit

Immigration

Taxes

1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036

Tel: 202.419.3600 Fax: 202.419-3608

www.pewhispanic.org www.pewresearch.org www.pewtrusts.com

The Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan “fact tank” that provides information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world.

1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036 202.419.3600 202.419.3608 Fax www.pewhispanic.org

Education Demographics and Latinos - College Board · Changing U.S. Demographics . U.S. Population...

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