Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century
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Transcript of Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century
Education and Workforce Developmentin the Early 21st Century Labor Market
Carl Van Horn, Ph.D.Professor and Director
John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Developmentand Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy
April 25, 2010
www.heldrich.rutgers.edu
Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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The Katrina of Recessions
The nation’s longest recession; will take years to recover
Highest official unemployment rate in 30 years
Over 17 million officially unemployed; millions more discouraged or underemployed
8.5 million jobs lost since December 2007
Longest average length of unemployment in 62 years
11 million more workers today than in 2000, but the same number of jobs
Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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High Unemployment at All Levels of Education
Those with more formal education experience lower levels of unemployment, but the unemployment rate has risen significantly for each group as compared to 10 years ago.
The Unemployment Rate by Education Level
5.8
3.52.5
1.7
15.3
10.59
5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Unemployment Rate-Less thana High School Diploma
Unemployment Rate-HighSchool Graduates, No College
Unemployment Rate-SomeCollege or Associate Degree
Unemployment Rate-Bachelor'sDegree or Higher
Dec. 1999 Dec. 2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, December 2009; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program, December 2009.
Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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New Realities of Workin the 21st Century Economy
Mid to Late 20th Century
Permanent
Stable Economy
Loyalty
“One and Done” Education
Defined Benefit Pension
“Early” Retirement
Safety Net for Most
Early 21st Century
Temporary/Contingent
Volatile Economy
Ambiguity/Disaffection
Lifelong Learning
Defined Contribution
“Never” Retire
Safety Net for Fewer
Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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Caution: Predicting Job Growth is Difficult
Predicting which occupations will experience the largest growth is very difficult. While some occupations met or came close to expectations, many of these predictions were off by a long shot. Job growth depends largely on macroeconomic trends and industry growth, which are difficult to forecast and can be derailed by an economic downturn.
Occupations Projected to Experience the Largest Job Growth from 1998-2008, Against Actual Growth to 2008
551 493 463 451 439 433 375433 374
-1161
-187
3
540
137 71 121
577 563 556
-85
-1400-1200-1000-800-600-400-200
0200400600800
SystemsAnalysts
RetailSalespersons
Cashiers GeneralManagers andTop Executives
Truck Drivers,Light and
Heavy
Office Clerks,General
RegisteredNurses
ComputerSupport
Specialists
Personal Careand Home
Health Aides
TeacherAssistants
Em
plo
ym
en
t Le
ve
l (in
th
ou
san
ds)
Change Projected Actual Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections Program, Employment Projections 1998-2008, news release, November 30, 1999.
Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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Will Most Jobs Expected to Grow Require Education and Training
Beyond High School, but Not a Four-Year Degree?
The occupations with the largest projected growth require a wide range of education and skill levels, indicating opportunities for job seekers at various skill and education levels.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Program, Employment Projections 2008-2018, news release, December 11, 2009.
Most Significant Source of Postsecondary Education Required for the 30 Occupations with the Largest Employment Growth
Projected, 2008-2018
7%
33%
57%
3%
Associate Degree
Short-term On-the-job-Training
Moderate-term On-the-jobTraining
Postsecondary VocationalAward
Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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Where are the Big Job Opportunities in the Near Future?
Occupations predicted for the largest job growth are ones that already comprise a major source of employment. Occupations such as nurses, home health aides, retail salespersons, and office clerks cannot be outsourced to other countries.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Program, Employment Projections 2008-2018, news release, December 11, 2009.
Ten Occupations with the Largest Projected Growth, 2008-2018
582
461400 394 376 375 359
279 276 257
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
RegisteredNurses
Home HealthAides
CustomerService
Representatives
Combined FoodPreparation andServing Workers,including Fast
Food
Personal andHome Care
Aides
RetailSalespersons
Office Clerks,General
Accountantsand Auditors
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and
Attendants
PostsecondaryTeachers
(in
th
ousa
nd
s)
Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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Are Green Jobs and Training the Next Big Thing?
Most “green jobs” are traditional jobs with a “green” component
Competing and confusing credentials
Amateur and experienced providers entering the training “Gold Rush”
Huge disparity in training quality
Online training is the new frontier
Source: Jennifer Lenahan-Cleary, “Going Green: Ensuring Success for Green Job Training Programs and Participants,” presented at the U.S. Department of Employment and Training Administration Heartland Conference, April 7-9, 2010.
Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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The Green Job Education and Training Landscape is Not Unique
Growing interest from students and job seekers and government funding have fostered…
Trend #1: “Crowding at the Bottom”Trend #1: “Crowding at the Bottom”
Trend #2: Weak Connections between Job Market & Related Training
Trend #2: Weak Connections between Job Market & Related Training
Trend #3: Lack of Career Ladder TransparencyTrend #3: Lack of Career Ladder Transparency
Trend #4: Aggressive Recruiting especially for Online Courses
Trend #4: Aggressive Recruiting especially for Online Courses
Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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What’s in Demand?Cross-Cutting Knowledge, Skills, and
Abilities Critical Thinking and Problem Solving - making decisions, solving
problems, and taking action
Effective Communication - the ability to synthesize and transmit your ideas both in written and oral formats
Collaboration and Team Building - the ability to work effectively with others, including those with diverse groups and with opposing points of view
Creativity and Innovation - the ability to see what’s not there and making something happen
Math/Science/Engineering/Technology Skills
Source: American Management Association and P21, “AMA 2010 Critical Skills Survey: Executive Summary,” April 2010.
Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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Paradigm Evolution in Educationand Workforce Development
Prevailing Paradigms
Access (1960s+)
Quality/Competitiveness (1970s and 1980s+)
Graduation/Attainment (1990s+)
Learning, Alignment, Labor Market Outcomes (2000+)
Dominant Strategies
Funding Formulas; Financial Aid; Institutional Growth
Standards/Assessments K-12
Policy Development, Reporting
Skills & Abilities, Performance Accountability
Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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Aligning Higher Education with Economic and Labor Market Goals
Several states are developing comprehensive education strategies that redefine the role of education to include being accountable for aligning with — and helping drive — economic prosperity as well as economic opportunity. These states are…
• Using labor market intelligence about employer needs,• Reforming curriculum to reflect the requirements of the
global economy,• Measuring the success of education on students’
employment outcomes and the ability of postsecondary education to serve the region’s employers, and
• Modifying funding formulas to incent or reward progress toward strategic goals.
Sources: National Governors Association (NGA) Center for Best Practices, “New Ground for State Economic Policy: Holding Higher Education Accountable for Meeting State Needs in a Knowledge-Based, Innovation Economy” (draft). Maria Heidkamp, “Initiative Strategies to Realign Postsecondary Education Outcomes with State Economic Development Goals,” presented at the NGA Center for Best Practices’ institute, Increasing Postsecondary Credential Attainment by Adults, March 2010.
Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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New Goals and Strategies for Educational Institutions
and Policymakers Link higher education and workforce development with
economic development
Bolster workforce preparation strategies — standards, curriculum reform, experiential learning
Incent lifelong learning opportunities (Pell Grant, UI Reform)
Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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New Goals and Strategies for Educational Institutions
and Policymakers Develop better labor market intelligence (Talent
Networks/Sector Strategies)
Create culture of accountability, informed choice, and consumer protection — Consumer Report Card, Voluntary Framework for Accountability
Allocate resources based on performance
Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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Contact Information
Dr. Carl Van Horn
732.932.4100 x6305
www.heldrich.rutgers.edu