Education and Illinois’ Future

Jennifer B. PresleyJennifer B. PresleyConsultant*Consultant*

jenniferbpresley@gmail.com

December 8, 2009December 8, 2009* Jennifer Presley is currently Director of Science & Mathematics Education Policy at the Association for Public and Land-grant Universities in Washington, D.C. She was formerly Director of the Illinois Education Research Council.

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The Role of Illinois’ P-20 Council

To formalize collaboration across early learning, K-12 and postsecondary providers

To provide a broad coalition of stakeholders who can collectively identify and address inter-sector issues – especially the intersection of education and the state’s economy; housing; welfare; etc.

To shine a spotlight on needs for change and reform

Illinois’ Changing Workforce

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Illinois’ Changing Job Market – Prior to the Great Recession

Between 1990 and 2005, Illinois lost 24% of its manufacturing industry jobs (-225,000, usually higher paying jobs).

Three service industries: professional and business services, education and health services, and the leisure and hospitality industry, registered the largest proportionate job growth, increasing 37% (+559,300, many are lower paying jobs than manufacturing, but often requiring more education).

Education is a major factor in employment.

Higher preparation levels command (relatively) higher wages.

Source: The State of Working Illinois, Center for Tax and Budget Accountability and NIU, 2005.

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In 2005, IDES projected an additional 700,000 jobs to be added to the Illinois from 2002 to 2012.

– 55% requiring some postsecondary education– 34% requiring at least a bachelor’s degree

7 million total Illinois jobs by 2012.– 30% requiring postsecondary education– 23% requiring at least a bachelor’s degree

With Illinois unemployment at 11% in October, 2009, the near-term job projections are subject to revision.

Sources: From Table 7, Illinois Department of Employment Security; U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (from State of Working Illinois, 2005.) Projections extrapolate from past job and industry patterns.

Jobs in Illinois are shifting to those that need postsecondary education. This is also the case across the rest of the country.

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Asked about recent Illinois college graduates’ overall knowledge and skills, 591 Illinois employers report

– 38% very satisfied; 57% satisfied; 3% dissatisfied; 2% don’t know.

– They recommended that higher education improve the teaching of practical skills, and place more emphasis on communication skills.

Nationally, employers say that

– high school graduates are deficient in professionalism/work ethic, oral and written communication, teamwork/collaboration, and critical thinking/problem solving.

– At the college level, conclusions similar to the Illinois study – citing deficiencies in writing in English, communications and leadership.

Sources: Item 14, IBHE Employer Satisfaction Survey, 2005. Board Meeting, April 4, 2006, pg. 91. Board, 2006.

And employers want college-ready skills even from high school graduates.

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Illinois’ population is aging – a vibrant economy is needed to support growing obligations to the aging population.

Source: US. Census population projections, 2005 – www.census.gov/population/projections/DownldFile2.xls. Retrieved 2/23/2007

Year Age 0-19 Age 20-54 Age 55-64 Age 65+

Distribution in 2000 29% 51% 8% 12%

Distribution in 2020 27% 46% 12% 15%

Distribution in 2030 27% 45% 10% 18%

2000-2020 Census Change

-8,707

-0.2%

-215,671

-3%

553,066

53%

488,739

33%

2000-2030 Census Change

1,408

0.0%

-272,920

-4%

372,959

36%

912,152

61%

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Projections of Working-Age Population (Ages 18‑64)—Percent Change, 2000-20

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (from NCHEMS, November 2005)

37

.8

34

.8 32

.8

29

.0

23

.8

20

.7

20

.4

20

.0 18

.4

17

.7

13

.0

12

.3

12

.0

11

.9

11

.7 10

.4

10

.0 9.5 9.0

8.8

8.5

8.2 6

.9

6.7

6.3

6.2

6.0

5.8

5.6

5.5 5.0

4.9

4.7 4.2 3.8

3.5

3.5 3.0 2.4 2.0 1.4

1.4

1.2

1.1

-1.3

-1.5 -2

.7

-2.9 -3

.9

-4.7

-8.2-10

0

10

20

30

40

KentuckyNew York

PennsylvaniaO

hioIowa

Michigan

West Virginia

CaliforniaNew M

exicoAlaskaW

yoming

IdahoW

ashingtonTexasFloridaUtahM

arylandG

eorgiaArizonaVirginiaO

regonUnited StatesAlabam

aNew Ham

pshireNew JerseyM

ontanaTennesseeKansasO

klahoma

ColoradoLouisianaSouth CarolinaNevadaNorth CarolinaSouth DakotaConnecticutM

aineArkansasM

issouriDelawareM

ississippiM

innesotaNebraskaVerm

ontM

assachusettsIllinoisNorth DakotaW

isconsinRhode IslandIndiana

Hawaii

• Illinois’ working-age population growth likely to be small. High-growth states are in the West and the South.

• Reliance on educated workforce in-migration will be challenging as surrounding states strive to retain their own well-educated workforce.

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Projected Change in Population Age 25-64 By Race/Ethnicity—Illinois, 2000-20

12,218

1,145,762

12,390249,554

903,359

4,525,673

705,170

369,908

969,498

4,360,447

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

White African-American Hispanic/Latino NativeAmerican/AK

Native

Asian/PacificIslander

2000 2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections (from 1995 to 2020) and Census 2000 (from NCHEMS, 2005)

Most projected growth in Illinois is among Hispanics/Latinos

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Workforce Conclusions

Working age population growth is likely to be small in Illinois – and up mainly for Hispanics/Latinos, followed by Asians.

An adequate workforce will depend on:

– Continued in-migration

– Participation of those not in the workplace (including younger and older people)

– Improved education pipeline results

Source: From Dennis Jones’ (NCHEMS) presentation to IBHE Summit, Chicago, IL. November 2005. Note that Illinois’ DECO population projections assume that there will be in-migration to meet projected job growth, and so add net in-migration to balance projected job growth.

The Illinois Education Pipeline

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Changing demographics of Illinois High School Graduates

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

White (79,210 to 71,278) Hispanic (10,855 to 29,131)

Black, Non-Hispanic (15,498 to 16,165) Asian/Pacific Islander (4,889 to 10,473)

American Indian/Alaskan Native (172 to 455)

Source: WICHE Projections of High School Graduates, 2003

Hispanic

AsianBlack

White

•Like other states, an increasing proportion of Illinois high school graduates will be minority.

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Currently, black and Hispanic/Latino students in

Illinois (and nationally) are not completing high school at the same rates as their peers.

Black 49%

Hispanic/Latino 54%

White & Asian 85%

The changing racial/ethnic composition of Illinois’ high school graduates will be even more pronounced if black and Hispanic/Latino completion rates improve.

Source: Uses Manhattan Institute Methodology, based on entering 9th graders, 2000-2001. Taken from Keeping Illinois Competitive. Illinois Status Report STEM Education. See www.keepingillinoiscompetitive.niu.edu, p. 56

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Distribution of the Class of 2002

Percentage Expecting Bachelor’s Degree

or More

Not/Least Ready

Minimally Ready

Somewhat Ready

More Ready

Most Ready

34% 11% 17% 17% 20%

72%

84%

90%

96%

99%

• And many of those who finish high school in Illinois are not ready for college or the workplace.

• Still, a majority expect to earn a bachelor’s degree.

}}

Source: Presley, J. and Gong, Y. (2005). The demographics and academics of college readiness in Illinois.

1/3

1/3

1/3

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College Ready: Not/Least College Ready:

Black 11% Black 54%

Latino 17% Latino 49%

White 48% White 22%

Asian 55% Asian 17%

There are low readiness rates in all racial/ethnic groups, but especially among black and Latino students

Source: Presley, J. and Gong, Y. (2005). The demographics and academics of college readiness in Illinois. 2005

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And college readiness is an issue across the regions of the state.

Source: Presley, J. and Gong, Y. (2005). The demographics and academics of college readiness in Illinois. 2005

17Source: Y. Gong and J. Presley. The demographics and academics of college going in Illinois, 2006

Especially at lower readiness levels, Latino (and Native American, not shown) students are less likely to go straight to college, while Asian students are most likely to continue. (Black student participation is quite similar to that of white

students at each readiness level.)

Readiness Index Latino Black White Asian Total

Not/Least Ready 35% 45% 49% 60% 43%

Minimally Ready 47% 57% 61% 66% 58%

Somewhat Ready 58% 67% 72% 79% 69%

More Ready 76% 83% 79% 84% 79%

Most Ready 85% 83% 84% 86% 84%

Total 49% 55% 70% 78% 64%

Percent Illinois’ 2002 high school graduates going straight to college

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College readiness is very important to college persistence – But…

Source: IERC, unpublished data, June 2007.

• Most college-ready students (85%) remain enrolled into Year 4.

• But enrolling full time trumps readiness.

Student Performance and Teacher Quality

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Illinois vs. Nation on 4th Grade NAEP Mathematics - 2009

In 2009, the average score in Illinois was lower than those in 24 states/jurisdictions higher than those in10 states/jurisdictions not significantly different from those in 17 states/jurisdictions

Source: http://www.isbe.net/assessment/pdfs/NAEP_snapshot4.pdf

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Illinois vs. Nation on 8th Grade NAEP Mathematics – 2009

In 2009, the average score in Illinois was lower than those in 23 states/jurisdictions higher than those in 15 states/jurisdictions not significantly different from those in 13 states/jurisdictions

Source: http://www.isbe.net/assessment/pdfs/NAEP_snapshot8.pdf

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Looking at Teacher Quality: Components of the Illinois School Teacher Quality Index

School Level Teacher Characteristics– % of Teachers with Emergency/Provisional

Certification– % of Teachers from More/Most Selective Colleges– % of Teachers Failing Basic Skills Test on First

Attempt– School Average of Teachers’ ACT Composite and

English Scores– % of Teachers with < 4 Years Experience

SchoolTeacher QualityIndex(TQI)

Sources of Data: State 2002-2003 Teacher Service Records and Teacher Certification Information System, ACT Inc, Barron’s Guide, Common Core of Data (NCES)

Strong Academic Capital component trumps experience.

Teacher Academic Capital

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•Very high percent minority schools are likely to have very low school TQIs.

•There is little difference in TQI distribution below the highest minority quartile (i.e. below about 60% minority).

TQI Distribution by Illinois School Percent Minority

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•TQI distribution is strongly related to school poverty levels.

•But - the differences continue across all four poverty quartiles.

TQI Distribution by Illinois School Percent Poverty

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Elementary/Middle School Quartiles High School Quartiles

Schools with low TQIs have low school performance

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College Readiness for Low-Poverty, Low-Minority High Schools and High-Poverty, High Minority High Schools by School TQI

• College Readiness increases as TQI increases, no matter the student body characteristics

• TQI matters more for high schools serving mostly disadvantaged students.

+9

+23

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?IMAGINE

Source: Presley, J. and Gong, Y. (2005). The Demographics and Academics of College Readiness in Illinois.http://ierc.siue.edu/documents/College%20Readiness%20-%202005-3.pdf

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Highest Math Course, School TQI and College Readiness

6%6%

16%

48%

25%

11%

67%

42%

18%

76%

52%

20%

81%

57%

21%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Algebra II Trigonometry orother advanced

math

Calculus

% S

tud

en

ts M

os

t/M

ore

Re

ad

y

Lowest 10%

11-25%

Lower Middle

Upper Middle

Highest

School TQI Quartile

Source: Presley, J. and Gong, Y. (2005). The Demographics and Academics of College Readiness in Illinois.http://ierc.siue.edu/documents/College%20Readiness%20-%202005-3.pdf

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• Advanced math courses matter to college readiness, but so does where the courses are taken.

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Key Points to Remember

– Jobs increasingly need skills related to postsecondary education.

– Illinois’ population is aging, with an increasing proportion of younger people coming from minority racial/ethnic groups – all Illinois’ youth are an important resource for the future.

– But – Illinois schools’ performance on NAEP lags about half the states in the nation.

– And non-Asian minorities and students from low-income families

Are less likely to have teachers with strong academic capital Are less likely to graduate from high school. Less likely graduate ready for college and the workplace. And for Latinos, less likely to enroll in college.

– We need to get the readiness job done throughout the PK-12 years.

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Final Remarks

The Illinois economy will need a more strongly educated working population – it will take every brain reaching its full potential.

Illinois must ensure that all students have the opportunity and encouragement to maximize their educational potential.

Higher education, K-12 and Pre-K need to work together on getting the signals to students, teachers and parents right.

– Align performance expectations across education sectors

– Start early, and continue with stronger preparation and higher expectations throughout elementary school -- more equitable distribution of teacher academic capital

– Work towards eliminating need for remedial education in the postsecondary sector

– Keep college students enrolled to program completion = enroll full time

– Promote teaching as a career path for academically talented college students

– Ensure strong science and mathematics as well as literacy competence in all new teachers

It’s readiness, readiness, readiness