M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento

EXPERT MEETING ON REQUIREMENTS OF THE CATASTROPHE INSURANCE AND WEATHER RISK

MANAGEMENT MARKETS FOR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES

Challenges and oportunities

Eduardo Delgado AssadEmbrapa Information Technology

assad@cnptia.embrapa.br

WRMA WMO WORLD BANK WFP

Assad et al.(Embrapa e Unicamp) Geneve 05-07/2007

M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento

Principal climatic events

stormdrought

hail frost

High Temperaturewind

Assad et al.(Embrapa e Unicamp) Geneve 05-07/2007

M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento

Hurricane Catarina

• Saturday, March 27, 2004 - Winds of 150km/h and waves with 5 m height reached Torres, in Rio Grande do Sul, destroying twenty one thousand of houses, with many people injured and homeless

M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento PiracicabaPiracicaba

20062006

M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento

M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento

Cepagri/Unicamp

M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento

Main problems:

- High variability in the rain regimen - Sensible Regions of the influences of El Nino, La Nina - Low density of official meteorological data.- losses provoked by droughts,storms, high and low T

Assad et al.(Embrapa e Unicamp) Geneve 05-07/2007

M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento High rates of losses

Product S. PAULO BAHIA NORDESTE

Rice 30% 34% 47%

Bean 21% 34% 41%

Maize 16% 37% 71%

Soybean 16% 29% -

Irrigated soybean

- - 32%

Cotton 22% 22% 81%

Castor bean - - 87%

Harvests 91/92 e 92/93

Needs principally rain and temperature data.

Assad et al.(Embrapa e Unicamp) Geneve 05-07/2007

M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento

AgrometeorologicalAgrometeorological MonitoringMonitoring

www.agritempo.gov.brwww.agritempo.gov.br

AgrometeorologicalAgrometeorological MonitoringMonitoring

www.agritempo.gov.brwww.agritempo.gov.br

Zullo Jr., J. et al. (Unicamp e Embrapa) Piracicaba (SP), 13/07/2007

M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento

Monitoring Agromet System - AGRITEMPO

PrincipalCharacteristic

Data base areFree after August2002 (T,P)

M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento

Real Stations - Agritempo

INMETCPTECUDs EmbrapaLamepe/ItepCemigCooxupéSimeparFepagroEpagriDep. Hidr.ALIPGOUnicampUSPInst. Flor.UnespCDVale

ParceirosParceiros

M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento

Virtual Stations- Agritempo

Zullo Jr., J. et al. (Unicamp e Embrapa) Piracicaba (SP), 13/07/2007

T max, TminQuantitatif

RainQualitatif (binary)Yes or not

M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento

-

10.000.000

20.000.000

30.000.000

40.000.000

50.000.000

60.000.000

2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008

Safra Verão Safra Inverno (*)

Evolution of agricultural insurance contracts In R$. 1 real = 0.5 US$

* Losses ~6% Source: Aliança Insurance of Brazil

M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento

Losses by frost in São Paulo State coffee production

Area production 240.000 hectaresCosts production = US$ 120 millionsExpected benefits with weather forecast frost is efficient in 50% = US$ 40 milions.

custosmeteor.pptcustosmeteor.ppt

M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento

Principal results

Climatic risk zoning

Brazil:Brazil:Average Corn Yield before climatic risks zoning:1991 a 1995 = 2564 Kg/haAverage Corn Yield after climatic risks zoning:1996 e 2003 = 2961 Kg/ha .................15%Average soybean Yield before climatic risks zoning: 1991 a 1995 = 1808 Kg/haAverage soybean Yield after climatic risks zoning: 1996 e 2003 = 2744 Kg/ha..................26%

(

M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento

Global Data base: Temperature, rain

Imagery Technology:

Research to estimate rain, soil humidityand Real Evapotranspiration.

Combine high spectral with high temporal resolution (1-3 days, 500 m)

Common areas for climate/agroclimate research:Crop yields, soil humidity, forecast of extremes events, forecast models adapted to agriculture 10,15 and 30 days. Combine Meta-models with local models

M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento

Horizontal and vertical resolution

Frequency (observing cycle)

Min and Max Years of historical records

Need for real- (or nearly real- time observations)

Delay in availability

Level of Quality Assurance Meta Data

Data improvements - Filling gaps- Homogen-ization

surface air temperature

40 Km daily 15 - 30 Yes 10 min high required required

Surface pressure

Wind (Speed and Direction)

2/10 m daily 15-30 yes 10 min high required required

Rainfall 20 km daily 15-30 yes 10 min high required required

Snow cover, depth and water equivalent

Humidity 40 Km daily 15 - 30 Yes 10 min high required required

Surface vegetation type and cover

500 m 10 days 10 years N 1 day high required

Cloud cover 500 m 10 days 10 years N 1 day high required

Soil moisture 500 m 1 day 15-30 N 1 day high required

Soil Temperature 500 m 10 days 10 years N 1 day high required

Snow melt (Run off)

M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e AbastecimentoFrost 1 km daily 15 - 30 Yes 10 min high required required

Haillocal

Surface water discharge

Ground Water storage and fluxes

Evaporation 40 Km daily 15 - 30 Yes 10 min high required required

Sea surface temperature

Wave height, direction and period

Below sea surface (boundary layer)

temperature

Tropical Cyclone (Path, land fall

location, circumference of

damaging wind, wind direction and speed,

etc.)

Other (please specify)

M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento

Thanks

assad@cnptia.embrapa.brwww.agritempo.gov.br