Eden Pps6 6 Project Summary Reifernandes

First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007

PPS6 EDEN

Revised project description

and methodology

Rei Fernandes


Methodology overview

• 4 stage process:

1. End vision development from scenarios

2. Impact analysis

3. Transition analysis

4. Synthesis and action plan development

End visiondevelopment

Impact analysis

Transition analysis

Synthesis andaction plan


Overview of Tasks TablePhase Activity % Total Time Responsible

Portugal Vision and Scenario

Development

5

5

IST

INEGI

Impact Analysis Method

Economic E3 database

TIMES

5

20

IST

Social ISIS 10 IST

(subcontract)

F1

Environmental COPERT 10 INETI

Method

KCAM 10 SRE

Infrastructure 15 INEGI

EDP

F2

Transition

Analysis of

Potential

Challenges &

Opportunities

Niche Markets 5 SRE

Roadmap Synthesis 5 All

F3

Action Plan 10 All


Current Progress

• Kick-off meeting complete, 10th January

• Final Products Descriptions gathered from PPS6

Partners

• Full and detailed PPS6 EDEN Project

Description completed with detailed roles,

objectives, timings, & deliverables

• First Workshop today!


PPS6 Project Description

in Summary

• Four workshops/ meetings:

– First workshop, end March 2007, INEGI in Porto

– Second workshop, end Sept 2007, EDP? in Lisbon

– Work level meeting, start Feb 2008, at IST in Lisbon

– Final Dissemination meeting, End May 2008, in Lisbon


Impact analysis

• Use computer models to analyse the impact of hydrogen introduction under the four scenarios in three areas:

– Economic (E3, TIMES)

– Social (ISIS)

– Environmental (COPERT)


TIMES

• MARKAL, short for MARKet ALIocation – new name TIMES

• computer-driven, dynamic optimization model

• Integrates energy, environmental, and economic factors.

• Identifies costs and benefits of alternative energy scenarios for the future.

• Estimates the relative merits of specific technologies that can be applied in an energy system.

• Widespread international acceptance, with more than 40 countriesusing it to analyze a broad range of issues in energy planning and environmental policy formulation.

• Provides energy system solutions to support national planning and policy decisions.


TIMES

• Times is an economic model generator for local, national or multi regional energy systems.

• computer-driven, dynamic optimization model.

• Integrates energy, environmental, economic factors and takes policy into account.

• Aims to supply energy services at a minimum global cost.

• Estimates the relative merits of specific technologies that can be applied in an energy system.

• Provides energy system solutions to support national planning and policy decisions.


TIMES II

What Inputs does it needs?

• End-use Energy service demands

• Existing stock of energy related in equipment in all sectors

• Characteristics of available future technologies

• Present and future sources of primary energy supply and their potentials

• In addition Policy constraints can be added for the model to take into account

– e.g. “GHG emissions have to be reduce in x% by 2020 when

compared to 1990 values”

– e.g. “10% Hydrogen demand in all sectors using x,y,z technologies”


TIMES III

What outputs are expected from TIMES?

• Energy system optimisation in several sectors

• Enable comparisons (economic and environmental) between the

EDEN scenarios and the Baseline scenario.


ISIS

• Provides, for a given hydrogen scenario:

– The influence on industrial structure

– The impact on “quantitative” employment effects

• Meso level (covers all sectors of an economy)


COPERT

• Analyse road transport emissions

• CO, NOx, VOC, CH4, CO2, N2O, SOx and others

• Dependent on vehicle fleet size and composition – relate to TIMES results and other models (TREMOVE)


1. Input data:

1. Car fleet for a specific year

- number of vehicles per category

(passengers, light duty cars, heavy duty

cars, buses, mopeds, motorcycles)

and classes (related with engine capacity

and vehicle age)

- annual mileage of vehicle class

2. Circulation Information:

- speed per road type

- driving share for road type and vehicle class

(road type: urban, rural, highway)

3. Other Data

- evaporation data

- climatic conditions

- cold start parameters

2. Calculations (example):

hot emission of pollutant i of vehicle class j per

road type k:

Ehot;i,j,k = Nj x Mj,k x ehot,i,j,k

Nj = number of vehicles of class j

Mj,k = mileage driven on road type k per vehicle

class j

ehot,i,j,k = emission factor (g/Km) of pollutant i for

vehicle class j operating in road type k

3. Results (for a specific year)

1. Total emission of pollutant (i)

2. Emission of pollutant (i) per:

a) vehicle category or class

b) road type

c) type of emission: (hot, cold and evaporation)

Copert III Methodology


Transition analysis

• In parallel to the quantitative models

• Qualitative impact analysis of the hydrogen chains

to identify main challenges – KCAM

• Identification of niche and market opportunities for

Portuguese industry

• Infrastructure analysis – plan the geographical

introduction of hydrogen technologies and

infrastructure


KCAM

Key Changes and Actor Mapping

• A systematic method to gather and present qualitative data on hydrogen systems development

• Via stakeholder consultation

• Highlights major challenges (Key Changes) and actor groups associated with introducing a hydrogen chain


Infrastructure Analysis

• Verify development scenarios on a regional basis

• Approved scenario of regional infrastructure build-up

• Provide inputs to and interaction with other tasks

• Assess investment costs over time

• Input from stakeholders required

• Results:

– Transport distances

– Graphic presentation of regional infrastructure build-up

– Identification of potential cross-border hydrogen flows

– Cash flow for infrastructure build-up


Synthesis and action

plan development

• Collect all results from Impact analysis andTransition analysis

• Determine the main messages

• Present them in a suitable format for use in a coordinated public informationcampaign


Timeline

J F M A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Scenario development

Economic

Social

Environmental

Qualitative assessment

Infrastructure analysis

Niche and market opportunities

Create action plan

PPS6

F3

Impact analysis

Transition analysis

F0

F2

TOTAL DO PPS6

Actividade Tarefa

2006 2007 2008

F1

End vision

Synthesis and action plan


Discussion

Eden Pps6 6 Project Summary Reifernandes

Technology

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