Economy & Rates - Oddo Seydler Bank AG · Economy & Rates March 2016 (figures and charts updated on...

This document was printed for Simon PALLHUBER on Wednesday, March 30, 2016 12:25:34 PM .

Economy & Rates

March 2016 (figures and charts updated on 9 March 2016)

Bruno Cavalier - Chief Economist, [email protected], 33.(0)1.44.51.81.35

Fabien Bossy - Economist, [email protected], 33.(0)1.44.51.85.38

Facts and fables

Tables of forecasts pages 13-14

Statistical and chart appendix pages 16-40

Man may not be rational, but he's a great rationalizer. (Milton Friedman)


Strictement confidentiel

2

• The state of panic in the financial markets has eased slightly. It is too soon to say that calm has been restored for good, but a few lessons can be drawn

from this episode of turbulence. First lesson: the global economy, though fragile, is more solid than the image of it given by the markets, which too often

tend to extrapolate the manufacturing sector’s severe weaknesses to the entire economy. The risk of a recession in the US is not nil, but recent figures

suggests that it remains rather modest at between 15% and 20% within the next year. In China, the authorities are not resigned to letting the markets

impose a massive depreciation of their currency. Unable to control the economic transition from end to end, i.e. the correction of industrial overcapacity

and domestic deleveraging, they are using monetary and fiscal tools to prevent a hard landing. In Europe, business confidence has weakened slightly – the

reverse would have been astonishing – but the two trends determining the strength of growth, namely the bank lending recovery and the fall in

unemployment, are intact. We will now have to see if political unknowns (Brexit) and geopolitical unknowns (migration crisis) will remain in the

background, which is awkward but not insurmountable, or hold centre stage.

• Second lesson: the activism of central banks has become a far more risky strategy than in the years immediately following the crisis. At that time, any

monetary easing measure, especially the most unprecedented ones (zero interest rates and quantitative easing), were welcomed as a sign of great

inventiveness and judged positively. Today, things are more complicated. Firstly, the divergence of monetary cycles is openly debated. Over the last three

months, the markets have concluded that the Fed’s first rate hike was a mistake, in its timing if not in its substance, and that the normalisation cycle

should therefore be abandoned. Economic statistics do not support this analysis, since unemployment remains on a downward trajectory and core

inflation is rebounding rapidly. Furthermore, for countries that are still in a loosening phase, monetary activism requires venturing into new territory, in this

case that of negative interest rates. The Bank of Japan has just learnt the bitter lesson that the reaction can be the opposite of the desired one. A negative

interest-rate policy (NIRP) is effective if it encourages economic agents to consume and invest by lowering their financing costs. It can also have the

opposite effect by endangering the health of financial institutions (banks and insurers), encouraging economic agents to flee into risk-free assets (cash,

gold or government bonds) and creating a deflationary mindset. At present, these concerns are above all theoretical, but the experience is too recent to

draw exhaustive conclusions.

• In these conditions, what can those in charge of macroeconomic stabilisation do? Two large institutions – the Bank for International Settlements and the

International Monetary Fund – have recently issued what appear at first sight to be divergent opinions on this subject. On the one hand, the BIS’ latest

quarterly report (6 March) criticised negative interest-rate policies and implicitly called for a halt to monetary adventurism. On the other hand, the IMF (8

March) deemed the risk of a derailing of the world economy to have increased and recommended stepping up the economic policy response. Taking a

closer look, however, these two opinions converge on several points. First, the BIS and IMF say it is dangerous to rely on central banks alone. The two

other levers that can support and solidify the world economy – fiscal action and structural reform – are near absent from the debate. The Eurozone is an

edifying example. The ECB has withdrawn all pressure that the markets placed on governments, in some cases excessively, to reform. And the idea of

using public budgets in a counter-cyclical perspective has disappeared. Second, the BIS and IMF suggest that action should be coordinated at the

international level. From this perspective, an NIRP is often merely an attempt to put downward pressure on one currency against a neighbouring one,

which will then do likewise, etc. We would add that policymakers have huge responsibility in the way that the “narrative” of events is formed (see the work

of Robert Shiller). The markets can create and rationalise “stories” that do not withstand closer analysis for long. Why should central bankers and

politicians be ready to lend a hand by predicting the worst? If only one-hundredth of the wordage about the risk of deflation in Europe (a threat brandished

for years) were dedicated to the decline in unemployment (a very tangible phenomenon), we would not be surprised if confidence were boosted. In short,

we would simply like facts to predominate over fables.

• .

Summary Facts and fables



[Date]

3

Where is the world economy headed?

Sources: Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.

48

50

52

54

56

58

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

points World business confidence : non-manufacturing

World business confidence: manufacturing

28

30

32

34

36

38

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

millions Unemployed (in developed countries*)

*US, EMU, UK, Japan

• Global growth ≈2% (a.r.) in Q4 2015, vs. 3.1% on average in 2015

• There has been no significant shift in recent trends

• Structural slowdown in China – Negative repercussions on emerging economies –

Resilience of the US economy – Modest recovery by the European economy

• But the risks are mostly on the downside

• Erosion of business confidence indices

• Precarious stabilisation of financial variables (FX, oil, markets)

• Multiple political/geopolitical risks

• A modest acceleration of global growth is still expected in 2016,

but in our view it has no foundations

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

y/y% G3 inflation * G3 core inflation *

*US-EMU-China

rising oil prices

collapsing oil prices



[Date]

4

How is the risk of a US recession evolving?


• The risk of recession has stabilised at a reasonable level (<20%)

• The momentum of growth accelerated at the start of Q1

• On the upside: resilient household consumption, solid employment conditions and

stabilisation of the dollar

• On the downside: inventory adjustment, weak exports, ongoing recession in the oil

sector and an earnings recession

• Industrial weakness is not spilling through in any significant way

to the rest of the economy

• US monetary policy remains highly accommodative

0

25

50

75

100

66 71 76 81 86 91 96 01 06 11 16

%US: "anxious index" of the Philly Fed

(probability of real GDP contraction one quarter ahead)

grey area = recessions

0

25

50

75

100

66 71 76 81 86 91 96 01 06 11 16

% US : probability of recession predicted by the yield curve

grey area = recessions

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

66 71 76 81 86 91 96 01 06 11 16

US recession begins US: initial jobless claims



[Date]

5

Was the Fed’s first rate hike a mistake?


• The end of the zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP) was fully justified by

its mandate

• The economy is at full employment objective 1: attained

• Core inflation is picking up objective 2: in sight

• The Fed is divided about what importance to give to market

turbulence in its reaction function (circularity problem)

• With stabilised markets, the Fed would be justified in raising its

rates a second time before mid-2016

• Its communication to the markets must be improved 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

index Distance of US economy from Fed's goals

average 1984-to-date (excluding recessions)

0

5

10

15

20

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

index Distance of Fed's policy stance from "normal"

average 1984-to-date (excluding recessions)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

y/y% US: measures of core inflation

Core PCE Market based Core PCE

Trimmed mean PCE Core CPI

Trimmed mean CPI Median CPI

"average 6"



[Date]

6

Has China (economy & FX) stabilised?


• In view of the lack of hard data over the New Year period, it would

be risky to claim this

• Several encouraging points are worth noting, however

• An effort to clarify the economic strategy

• A moderation of capital outflows and a stabilisation of the exchange rate

• Some stimulus measures (reduction in the risk of a hard landing)

• Chinese growth will continue to be shaped by two trends

• On the upside: the development of services

• On the downside: the clean-out of industrial overcapacity, the deleveraging of SOE

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

index China: effective exchange rate

-125

-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

14 15 16

bn$ China: FX reserve assets (1-month change)

2400

2700

3000

3300

3600

3900

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bn$ China: FX reserve assets(outstandings)

14

16

18

20

22

4

5

6

7

8

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

%% PBoC 1y policy rate RRR big banks (rhs)

RRR=reserve requirements ratio



[Date]

7

Is the rebound in the oil price solid?


• The oil market continues to suffer from oversupply, but this

imbalance is no longer worsening

• The first effects of the oil counter-shock are starting to become

visible on the supply side

• Beginning of a decrease in US production

• Possible agreement on a freeze of OPEC-non OPEC production

• Nothing suggests that demand is slowing sharply

• Reminder: a low oil price is not negative for the global economy,

even if the net positive impact is not immediate

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

11 12 13 14 15 16

000s b/day US: oil production in main shale fields (+forecast*)

*model basedon rig count

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15

2015 $ Real price of crude oil *

1st oil shock (1973)

2nd oil shock(1979)

* nominal price adjusted for the US core CPI and denominated in 2015$shaded areas are periods or real oil price decline of more than 45% y/y

Gulf war (1990)

Iraq war (from 2003)

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

y/y% IEA: growth forecast of world oil demand 1-year forward

demandcollapse

demandslowdown



[Date]

8

Do the markets really predict medium-term inflation?


• Market-based inflation expectations measure risk aversion, not the

future trend in inflation

• What are the implications if these expectations are taken seriously?

• First case: no spillover effect from oil prices to other prices the TIPS markets predict

that the oil price will rapidly head towards zero, which is absurd

• Second case: the oil price will not fall to zero the TIPS markets predict a sharp and

swift decline in core inflation, which is at odds with reality

• Other metrics of medium-term inflation expectations are solid in the

US and down slightly in Europe (at an uncomfortably low level) 25

50

75

100

125

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

12 13 14 15 16

$/bbl% US 5y5y breakeven inflation WTI price (rhs)

correlation 2008-to-date = 51%correlation 2014-to-date = 95%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

15 16 17 18

$/b US: forecast of oil prices (WTI crude)

Actual

Market futures

Implied by inflation breakeven

Inflation expectations Horizon last Jan.2014

1) Markets

- TIPS 5 years in 5Y 1.55 2.67 -1.12 %pt

2) Consumers

- NY Fed survey 3 years 2.45 3.05 -0.60 %pt

- U.Michigan survey 5-10 years 2.50 2.90 -0.40 %pt

3) Professional forecasters

- SPF survey (CPI) 10 years 2.12 2.30 -0.18 %pt

- SPF survey (PCE) 10 years 1.97 2.00 -0.03 %pt

Current inflation

- CPI, y/y% spot 1.4 1.6 -0.21 %pt

- PCE, y/y% spot 1.3 1.4 -0.15 %pt

Oil price (WTI, $/b) spot 37 95 -61 %

Change



[Date]

9

Where is the deflation that is so talked about in the eurozone?


• It is not visible in household consumption

• The growth of real spending is at a ten-year high

• It is not visible in the unemployment trend

• The decrease in unemployment (-1pt in 2015) exceeds all expectations

• It is not visible in the credit cycle

• After years of deleveraging, banks have begun lending to the economy again

• Deflation appears above all in the speeches of central bankers and

media reports

-5

0

5

10

15

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

y/y %EMU : loans to the private sector

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

EMU: unemployment rate (one year change %pt)

negative figure =unemployment falls

-4

-2

0

2

4

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

EMU: real retail sales* (year-over-year %)

* 3M moving average



[Date]

10

Are negative interest-rate policies (NIRP) dangerous?


• They can be in several respects

• Signalling effect – NIRP are supposed to spur a reflation (disincentive to save) but

create a deflationary interest-rate environment

• Financial stability – NIRP contribute to weaken the business models of banks

(transformation of maturities) and insurers (guaranteed returns)

• Non-cooperation – NIRP are a way for a central bank to weaken its currency (even

if it is rarely put this way)

• At this stage, there has been no empirical confirmation of these

risks, but central banks do not have the benefit of the doubt

• There is a communication problem on the subject

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

12 13 14 15 16

% ECB (depo) SNB DNB Riksbank BoJ

NIRP

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% EMU: loans' rates to non-financial corporations

PeripheryCore

* credit up to 1M€, maturity<5 years

refi rate

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

14 15 16

trl $ Government bonds with negative yields

ECB's NIRP starts

BoJ's NIRP starts

ECB's NIRP reinforced



[Date]

11

What euro exchange rate is satisfactory for the ECB?


• The euro’s past performance differs widely depending on what

exchange rate one looks at

• Vs Dollar– Vs basket of DM currencies – Vs basket of EM currencies

• The ECB has a reflation strategy

• Condition 1: a functioning credit market is a necessity

• Condition 2: the euro must be at a competitive level (<$1.20 PPP), explaining the

monetary decoupling policy from the Fed

• What upside factors are there for the euro?

• A reduction in the Europe-US cyclical gap – The position of external balances in the

Eurozone/Germany – The risk of Brexit

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

14 15 16

index € vs large currency basket € vs $

80

90

100

110

120

130

14 15 16

index € vs Latam basket € vs Asian basket

85

90

95

100

105

14 15 16

index € vs EM basket € vs DM basket

EM: emerging market; DM: developed market



[Date]

12

Walls… how much do they cost?

Sources: cartoons by Kal, Nicolas Vadot, and Tom Stiglich

• The building of walls is at the top of politicians’ agendas

• Between the US and Mexico: the only precise point in Donald Trump’s programme

• Between the UK and the continent: this is the wish of proponents of Brexit

• Within the EU: this is a way to stem the arrival of refugees and migrants

• What is the cost of Brexit?

• Economic relations between the UK and the EU will not disappear overnight. The

cost is primarily political and institutional. A significant risk for the markets.

• What is the cost of suspending Schengen?

• Various studies put the cost at around €10bn per year (0.1% of GDP). Here too, the

biggest price to pay is political.



[Date]

13

Table of forecasts (1)

Source: Consensus Forecasts, Bloomberg, Oddo Securities.

2015 2016 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2016 2017

World 3.1 3.0 3.1

US 2.4 2.1 2.0 0.6 3.9 2.0 1.0 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.4

EMU 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.3 1.6 1.2 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.3 1.6 1.7

- Germany 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.1 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.3 1.8 1.6

- France 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.9 0.0 1.3 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.4 1.5

- Italy 0.6 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.3

- Spain 3.2 3.0 2.5 3.7 3.9 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.3

UK 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.7 2.4 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2

Japan 0.5 0.5 1.0 4.6 -1.4 1.4 -1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.6

China (y/y%) 6.9 6.3 5.9 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.5 6.3

* y/y or q/q annualised rate **8 February 2016

FORECASTS - REAL GDP GROWTH*

Consensus**Average 20162015

High Low 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Policy rate

Fed funds 0.50 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.27 0.75

ECB deposit rate 0.75 -0.30 0.50 0.15 0.00 -0.08 -0.20 -0.43

10Y rate

US T-note 3.5 1.5 2.8 1.8 2.4 2.5 2.1 2.0

German Bund 3.4 0.2 2.6 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.4

French OAT 3.7 0.4 3.3 2.5 2.2 1.7 0.8 0.7

Forex

EUR/USD 1.45 1.07 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.11 1.10

USD/JPY 124 77 80 80 98 106 121 115

USD/RMB 6.57 6.05 6.47 6.31 6.15 6.16 6.28 6.57

*monthly average

6.70

Target

3M 12M

-

-

1.9

0.4

0.75

120

2.5

0.9

-

1.11

112

6.51

1.8

0.2

0.50

1.10

FORECASTS - RATES & FX

-0.30

Actual

08/03/2016

Last 5 years* Average

-0.50

1.25

-0.50

0.5 0.7 1.2



[Date]

14

Table of forecasts (2)

Source: Oddo Securities.

2015 2016 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

United States

Real GDP 2.4 2.1 2.0 0.6 3.9 2.0 1.0 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.0

Private Consumption 3.1 2.7 2.1 1.7 3.6 3.0 2.0 3.2 2.5 2.3 2.1

Nonresidential Investment 2.9 1.4 2.9 1.6 4.1 2.6 -1.9 1.0 2.0 3.0 3.0

Residential Investment 8.7 7.9 6.2 10.1 9.4 8.2 7.9 9.0 7.0 7.0 6.0

Domestic Demand (contribution, %pt) 2.9 2.5 2.3 1.7 3.8 3.0 1.4 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3

Inventories (contribution, %pt) 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.9 0.0 -0.7 -0.1 -0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0

Net Exports (contribution, %pt) -0.6 -0.2 -0.2 -1.9 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2

Inflation (CPI, % yoy) 0.1 1.0 2.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 1.0 1.7

Unemployment rate (%) 5.3 4.5 4.0 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2

Euro area

Real GDP 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.3 1.6 1.2 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.3

Private Consumption 1.7 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.2 2.0 0.9 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.1

Investment 2.5 2.9 3.4 5.9 0.4 1.7 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.6


Inventories (contribution, %pt) -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 -0.9 1.1 0.6 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0

Net Exports (contribution, %pt) -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.9 1.4 -1.5 -1.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2

Inflation (HICP, % yoy) 0.0 0.1 1.6 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.7


France

Real GDP 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.9 0.0 1.3 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0

Private Consumption 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.7 0.1 1.8 -0.7 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0

Investment -0.2 1.7 2.5 1.3 -0.5 0.3 2.7 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.5


Inventories (contribution, %pt) 0.3 0.7 0.0 2.0 -2.0 2.8 2.8 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Net Exports (contribution, %pt) -0.2 -0.5 0.1 -0.8 1.7 -2.9 -2.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2

Inflation (HICP, % yoy) 0.1 0.2 1.7 -0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.8


* y/y or q/q annualised rate

FORECASTS - KEY MACRO DATA for US, EMU, & France *

Average 20162015



Recently published Oddo Economic Research Visit our Economic Research website: https://www.oddosecurities.com/#economy

Eco notes

Negative waves (February 9, 2016)

Scary monsters… China, oil and monetary divergence (Jan.13, 2016)

The Seven Year Itch (December 11, 2015)

The slow inflation thaw (November 13, 2015)

Waiting for the Fed (October 15, 2015)

Scary monsters… China, oil and monetary divergence (Jan.13, 2016)

The sun is rising in the West, the fog thickens in the East (Sept.10, 2015)

Ready for lift-off... fasten your seatbelts (May 13, 2015)

Black gold – Green light for growth – Red alert on inflation (Jan.15, 2015)

Reflation: passing the baton (September 11, 2014)

The ECB's announcements - more of the same, but better (March 7, 2016)

Brexit, Brexident, Little Britain (February 16, 2016)

US: what has happened to the oil revenue windfall? (February 2, 2016)

France: GDP: +1.1%, jobs: zero, inflation: zero, reforms: zero (Jan.29, 2016)

Should the ECB react to the fall in the oil price? (January 19, 2016)

Chinese devaluation, a nagging source of concern (January 7, 2016)

Is the low point for US unemployment near or still some way off? (Jan.6, 2016)

Europe after the migrant crisis and terrorist attacks (December 4, 2015)

Industrial accident at the ECB (December 4, 2015)

25 ways to ease the ECB’s policy (November 30, 2015)

China's currency: the cooperative game between China and the IMF (Nov.18)

Draghi: heads, I ease, tails, I ease all the same (November 10, 2015)

One year of cheap oil already (November 5, 2015)

Taking stock of the US economy (October 21, 2015)

ECB: how not to find itself (already) with its hands tied (October 19, 2015)

Economy & Rates (monthly)

Economic Report

Economic calendar (weekly)

15

Focus France (twice a month)

France: the phantom reform of the labour market (March 2, 2016)

Frexit...by any other name (February 17, 2016)

The ECB’s policy is pro-French (February 3, 2016)

What do robust French import levels tell us? (January 20, 2016)

France is lagging behind: causes, effects, remedies (January 5, 2016)

Focus US (weekly)

US: core inflation is accelerating sharply (March 4, 2016)

US: should we fear a stock market wealth effect? (February 26, 2016)

Market inflation expectations anticipate (almost) nothing at all (Feb.19, 2016)

US financial conditions: a warning signal, not a distress signal (Feb.12, 2016)

US: diffusion, what diffusion? (February 5, 2016)

https://www.oddosecurities.com/#economy



[Date]

16

Statistical and chart Appendix

List of appendices

1. Real GDP growth in the major countries (% quarterly change)

2. Contributions to real GDP growth: G7 countries

3. Real GDP growth: G7 countries + China

4. Real GDP growth: countries of Asia excl. China-Japan (selection)

5. Real GDP growth: other countries (selection)

6. Industrial production: G7 + emerging countries (selection)

7. Consumer price inflation: G7 countries + China

8. Consumer price inflation: emerging countries (selection)

9. Unemployment rates: G7 countries

10. Purchasing managers’ confidence (PMI indices): G7 + BRIC countries

11. Consumer confidence: developed countries (selection)

12. Car sales: G7 countries + China + Brazil

13. Central bank policy rates: developed countries (selection)

14. Central bank policy rates: emerging countries (selection)

15. Central bank balance sheets: developed countries (selection)

16. Currency reserves: world and principal holders

17. Current account balances: G7 countries + China

18. Current account balances: emerging countries (selection)

19. Exchange rates against the EUR or USD: major currencies

20. Government debt (as % of GDP): European countries (selection)

21. Sovereign ratings: European countries (selection)

22. Bank financing by the Eurosystem

23. Bank loans to the private sector: European countries (selection)

24. 10-year government bond yield



[Date]

17

Source : Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 1 Real GDP growth in the major countries (% quarterly change)

GDP 2014

bn $ current $ PPP $

% % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

World * 77329 100.0 100.0 1.53 1.54 1.15 1.29 1.01 0.96 0.90 0.84 1.00 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.79 0.94 1.08 0.85 0.69 0.86 1.00 0.73 0.64 0.79 0.92 0.51 eDeveloped countries 42022 54.3 37.4 0.58 0.94 0.69 0.46 -0.05 0.31 0.54 0.48 0.38 0.07 0.05 -0.12 0.33 0.41 0.57 0.55 0.20 0.36 0.55 0.49 0.42 0.54 0.42 0.23 e

Asia excl.Japan 16572 21.4 31.2 2.75 2.23 1.82 2.16 2.22 1.72 1.32 1.28 1.95 1.45 1.52 1.78 1.41 1.60 1.88 1.41 1.41 1.73 1.83 1.14 1.38 1.62 1.86 1.10 e

US 17348 22.4 15.9 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.6 -0.4 0.7 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.9 -0.2 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.3

EMU 13190 17.1 11.8 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3- Germany 3874 5.0 3.4 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.8 1.9 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.7 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

- France 2834 3.7 2.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.8 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.3

- Italy 2148 2.8 2.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

Japan 4602 6.0 4.4 1.4 1.1 1.5 -0.5 -2.0 -0.6 2.7 0.2 0.9 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 -0.1 1.3 -2.0 -0.6 0.5 1.1 -0.4 0.3 -0.3

UK 2950 3.8 2.4 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.2 -0.2 1.0 -0.1 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5

Switzerland 704 0.9 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.7 -0.2 0.6 -0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.7 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.4

Canada 1785 2.3 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.2 1.4 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.0 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.8 -0.2 -0.1 0.6 0.2

Australia 1443 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0 -0.2 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.3 1.1 0.6

China 10357 13.4 16.6 2.6 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.8 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.9 1.8 1.6

India ** 2051 2.7 6.8 3.2 2.8 1.9 2.7 2.3 1.2 0.2 2.4 1.6 0.3 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.8 2.3 1.1 1.6 2.3 2.8 0.0 2.3 2.2 3.0 -0.2

Korea 1410 1.8 1.6 2.2 1.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.3 1.3 0.6

Indonesia ** 889 1.1 2.5 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5

Taiwan 530 0.7 1.0 1.9 2.7 0.8 0.8 2.7 0.5 -0.5 -1.3 2.5 -0.2 1.7 0.2 -0.1 0.7 0.8 1.8 0.2 1.6 1.3 0.2 0.5 -1.1 -0.3 0.8

Thailand 405 0.5 1.0 3.0 -0.4 0.6 0.4 2.3 -1.5 1.5 -6.3 9.6 1.8 0.7 2.4 0.1 -0.6 0.8 -0.1 -0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.8

Malaysia ** 338 0.4 0.7 1.8 1.4 0.1 1.6 1.7 1.2 1.5 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.9 -0.3 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.4 0.9 1.0 1.2

Philippines 285 0.4 0.6 3.4 1.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.6 2.4 1.0 2.1 1.8 2.4 1.1 1.5 1.0 2.1 1.7 0.8 1.8 0.9 2.0 1.4 2.0

Singapore 308 0.4 0.4 8.2 5.5 -2.4 2.9 3.1 0.1 1.6 -0.2 2.6 0.7 -1.3 2.1 1.3 2.2 0.1 1.8 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.7 0.0 -0.4 0.6 1.5

Brazil 2347 3.0 3.0 1.6 1.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.4 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.2 0.5 1.5 0.6 -0.2 0.6 -1.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.8 -2.1 -1.7 -1.4

Chile 258 0.3 0.4 -1.3 4.5 2.5 0.6 1.3 0.7 0.5 2.7 0.7 1.8 0.8 1.9 1.3 -0.1 1.7 -0.1 0.8 -0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 -0.1 0.4 -

Mexico 1291 1.7 2.0 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.5 0.8 0.9 1.3 0.3 0.9 0.6 -1.1 1.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5

Russia ** 1861 2.4 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.1 1.7 0.8 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.4 1.0 0.1 0.3 -0.6 1.1 0.0 -0.3 -3.0 -1.3 0.3 -

Poland 548 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.0 -0.2 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 1.2 0.8 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.9 1.1

Turkey 798 1.0 1.4 0.7 3.1 1.2 4.6 2.5 0.6 1.2 0.8 -0.3 1.2 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 -0.2 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.3 -

South Africa 350 0.5 0.6 1.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.3 1.2 -0.4 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.3 -0.3 0.2 0.2

* as usual, w orld w eighting is based on real GDP at PPP exchange rate (IMF data)

** for those countries, seasonaly-adjusted f igures by Oddo Securities

Weights 2014

2010 2011

Real GDP change (Q/Q non annualised, %)

2012 2013 2014 2015



[Date]

18


Appendix 2 Contributions to real GDP growth: G7 countries

Pre-crisis Crisis Post-crisis

1999-2007 Q3 08-Q2 09 2010 to date Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

US

Real GDP qoq % 0.7 -1.0 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.6 -0.4 0.7 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.9 -0.2 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.3

- Inventories 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.5 0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0

- Net exports -0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.1

- Final demand 0.8 -1.1 0.5 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.8 -0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.3

Japan

Real GDP qoq % 0.3 -1.7 0.2 1.4 1.1 1.5 -0.5 -2.0 -0.6 2.7 0.2 0.9 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 -0.1 1.3 -2.0 -0.6 0.5 1.1 -0.4 0.3 -0.3

- Inventories 0.0 -0.4 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 0.4 -0.2 0.4 -0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.4 1.1 -0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.1

- Net exports 0.1 -0.7 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -1.2 1.1 -0.7 0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.1 -0.4 0.3 0.1

- Final demand 0.2 -0.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 -0.5 -1.2 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.5 -0.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 1.6 -3.8 -0.2 0.3 0.6 -0.2 0.3 -0.2

Germany

Real GDP qoq % 0.4 -1.7 0.5 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.8 1.9 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.7 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

- Inventories 0.0 -0.6 0.0 1.6 0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.5 0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.6 0.0 0.4 -0.7 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.1

- Net exports 0.2 -0.8 0.1 -0.9 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 -0.7 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 0.8 -0.1 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.6 -0.2 -0.5

- Final demand 0.2 -0.3 0.4 0.1 1.3 0.5 0.3 1.3 -0.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.7 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.8 -0.3 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.7

France

Real GDP qoq % 0.5 -0.9 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.8 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.3

- Inventories 0.0 -0.4 0.1 -0.5 0.2 0.3 -0.2 1.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.8 0.2 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.4 0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 0.4 -0.5 0.7 0.7

- Net exports -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 -0.2 -0.4 0.3 -0.6 0.5 0.1 0.9 -0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 -0.2 0.4 -0.7 -0.3

- Final demand 0.6 -0.4 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 -0.7 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 -0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.0

Italy

Real GDP qoq % 0.4 -1.8 -0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

- Inventories 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.6 0.0 -0.1 1.0 0.1 -0.5 -0.1 -0.7 0.2 -0.8 -0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.8 0.1 0.2 -0.4

- Net exports 0.0 -0.3 0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.7 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.4 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 0.1

- Final demand 0.4 -1.0 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.5 -0.1 -0.7 -1.2 -2.1 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4

EMU

Real GDP qoq % 0.6 -1.4 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3

- Inventories 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.1

- Net exports 0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.4 -0.4 -0.3

- Final demand 0.5 -0.8 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.5

UK

Real GDP qoq % 0.7 -1.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.2 -0.2 1.0 -0.1 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5

- Inventories -0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4 -0.3 0.6 -0.4 -1.4 1.4 1.2 -0.6 -1.7 1.5 0.2 0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.0 1.2 -0.7 -0.8 0.5 0.2 0.7 -2.2 0.9 0.4

- Net exports -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 -0.9 0.5 2.3 -0.4 -0.9 0.0 0.7 -1.1 0.6 -1.0 0.8 -0.1 -0.3 -1.4 0.6 0.5 -0.5 0.2 -1.2 1.7 -1.0 -0.4

- Final demand 0.8 -1.6 0.5 -0.7 1.0 0.8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 0.5 0.8 1.3 -0.5 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.5

* do not sum up exactly due to roundings

Real GDP change (Q/Q non annualised, %) + contributions to growth *

2015201420132010 2011 2012



[Date]

19


Appendix 3 Real GDP growth: G7 countries + China

-10

-5

0

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% US : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% EMU : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

0

3

6

9

12

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% China : real GDP growth

q/q % (annual rate)

y/y%

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Japan : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.) y/y%

Fukushima VAT shock

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Germany : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% France : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% UK : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

Olympics

-10

-5

0

5

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Canada : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%-15

-10

-5

0

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Italy : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%



[Date]

20


Appendix 4 Real GDP growth: countries of Asia excl. China-Japan (selection)

0

5

10

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% India : real GDP growth

y/y%

new methodology from 2012

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% South Korea : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

0

5

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Indonesia : real GDP growth

q/q % (annual rate)

y/y%

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Taiwan : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Philippines : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Singapore : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-5

0

5

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Australia : real GDP growth

q/q % (annualised rate)

y/y%

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Malaysia : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Thailand : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%floods (-23%)

+45%



[Date]

21


Appendix 5 Real GDP growth: other countries (selection)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Brazil: real GDP growth

q/q % (annual rate)

y/y%

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Turkey : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Mexico : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Russia : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-5

0

5

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Poland : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.) y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% South Africa : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.) y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Switzerland: real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Chile: real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Hungary : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%



[Date]

22


Appendix 6 Industrial production (index): selected countries

80

90

100

110

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

100=Jan.07US : industrial production index

80

90

100

110

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

100=Jan.07EMU : industrial production index

Germany

EMU

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

100=Jan.07China : industrial production index

60

70

80

90

100

110

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

100=Jan.07Japan : industrial production index

80

90

100

110

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

100=Jan.07Canada : industrial production index

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

100=Jan.07South Korea : industrial production index

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

100=Jan.07Taiwan : industrial production index

80

90

100

110

120

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

100=Jan.07Brazil : industrial production index

80

90

100

110

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

100=Jan.07Mexico : industrial production index



[Date]

23


Appendix 7 Consumer price inflation: G7 countries + China

-1

0

1

2

3

4

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

y/y% EMU : CPI inflation

ECB's target

-2

0

2

4

6

8

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

y/y% China : CPI inflation

official target

-4

-2

0

2

4

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Japan : CPI inflation

y/y% target BoJ

VAT rate hike

-1

0

1

2

3

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

y/y% Germany : CPI inflation

ECB's target

-1

0

1

2

3

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

y/y% France : CPI inflation

ECB's target

-2

0

2

4

6

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% UK : CPI inflation

y/y%

target BoE

-1

0

1

2

3

4

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Canada : CPI inflation

y/y%

target BoC

-2

0

2

4

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

y/y% US : CPI inflation

Fed's target

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

y/y% Italy & Spain : CPI inflation

Italy

Spain

ECB's target



[Date]

24


Appendix 8 Consumer price inflation: emerging countries (selection)

0

5

10

15

20

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% India : CPI inflation

y/y%

0

2

4

6

8

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% South Korea : CPI inflation

y/y%

target BoK

0

2

4

6

8

10

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Indonesia : CPI inflation

y/y%

-4

-2

0

2

4

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Taiwan : CPI inflation

y/y%

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Thailand : CPI inflation

y/y%

0

3

6

9

12

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Turkey : CPI inflation

y/y%

2

4

6

8

10

12

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Brazil : CPI inflation

y/y%

target BCdoB

0

2

4

6

8

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Mexico : CPI inflation

y/y%

0

4

8

12

16

20

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Russia : CPI inflation

y/y%



[Date]

25


Appendix 9 Unemployment rates: G7 countries

4

6

8

10

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% US : unemployment rate

"threshold " for ending ZIRP

3

4

5

6

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Japan : unemployment rate

8

9

10

11

12

13

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% EMU : unemployment rate (harmonised)

4

5

6

7

8

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Germany : unemployment rate (harmonised)

6

8

10

12

14

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Italy : unemployment rate (harmonised)

4

6

8

10

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% UK : unemployment rate (harmonised) *

* last 2 points are estimated

based on alternative job data

"threshold " for ending ZIRP

6

7

8

9

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Canada : unemployment rate

10

15

20

25

30

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Spain : unemployment rate (harmonised)

7

8

9

10

11

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% France : unemployment rate

Eurostat definitionINSEE definition



[Date]

26

Source : Markit, Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 10 Purchasing managers’ confidence (PMI indices): G7 + BRIC countries

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

points US ISM index

manufacturing

non manuf.

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

points EMU : PMI index

manufacturing

services35

40

45

50

55

60

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

points China : PMI index (manufacturing)

HSBC/Caixin index

NBS index

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

points Japan : PMI index

manufacturing

services

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

points Germany : PMI index

manufacturing

services

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

points France : PMI index

manufacturing

services

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

points UK : PMI index

manufacturing

services

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

points other EMU : PMI index

Italy (composite)

Spain (composite)30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

points other BRIC : PMI index

Brazil (composite)

India (composite)

Russia (composite)



[Date]

27


Appendix 11 Consumer confidence: developed countries (selection)

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

st.dev. US: consumer confidence

Univ.of Michigan

Conference Board

0= 1990-2007 avg

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

st.dev. EMU: consumer confidence

0= 1990-2007 avg

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

st.dev. Japan: consumer confidence

0= 1990-2007 avg

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

st.dev. UK: consumer confidence

0= 1990-2007 avg

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

st.dev. Germany: consumer confidence

0= 1990-2007 avg-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

st.dev. France: consumer confidence

0= 1990-2007 avg

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

st.dev. Italy: consumer confidence

0= 1990-2007 avg

sample change -4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

st.dev. Spain & Portugal: consumer confidence

Spain

Portugal

0= 1990-2007 avg

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

st.dev. Netherlands & Belgium: consumer confidence

Netherlands

Belgium

0= 1990-2007 avg



[Date]

28

Source : Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 12 Car sales: G7 countries + China + Brazil

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

'000s US: monthly car sales (light trucks included)

tax incentive

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

'000s China: monthly car sales

tax incentive

100

200

300

400

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

'000s Japan: monthly car sales

200

250

300

350

400

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

'000s Germany: monthly car sales

100

150

200

250

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

'000s France: monthly car sales

100

150

200

250

300

350

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

'000s Brazil: monthly car sales

40

60

80

100

120

140

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

'000s Spain: monthly car sales

100

150

200

250

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

'000s UK: monthly car sales

100

150

200

250

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

'000s Italy: monthly car sales



[Date]

29


Appendix 13 Central bank policy rates: developed countries (selection)

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% World: weighted-average policy rate*

*current GDP weighted

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Japan: O/N rate

3-tiered system with negative rates

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% UK: base rate

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Canada: O/N rate

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Switzerland: policy rate*

*middle of the target rangefor the 3M LIBOR rate

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Sweden & Norway: policy rates

Sweden

Norway

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Australia & New Zealand: policy rates

Australia

New Zealand

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% EMU: ECB refi rate

deposit rate0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% US: Fed funds rate



[Date]

30


Appendix 14 Central bank policy rates: emerging countries (selection)

4

5

6

7

8

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% China: 1-year lending rate

5

7

9

11

13

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Brazil: SELIC rate

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Russia: policy rate

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% India & Indonesia: policy rates

India

Indonesia

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% South Korea: policy rate

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Poland & Hungary: policy rates

Poland

Hungary

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Taiwan: policy rate

0

2

4

6

8

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Chile: policy rate

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Mexico: policy rate



[Date]

31

Source : Thomson Reuters, Fed, ECB, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 15 Central bank balance sheets: developed countries (selection)

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% GDP G6: total assets of central banks*

*US, EMU, Japan, UK, Canada, Switzerland

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bn $ Fed: total assets

QE programmes other

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% GDP Fed: total assets

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% GDP ECB: total assets

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% GDP Bank of England: total assets

0

25

50

75

100

125

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% GDP Swiss National Bank: total assets

CHF/EUR peg 0

2

4

6

8

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% GDP Bank of Canada: total assets

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% GDP Bank of Japan: total assets

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bn € ECB: total assets

QE programmes other



[Date]

32


Appendix 16 Currency reserves (in US$): world and principal holders

6000

8000

10000

12000

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bn$ World: FX reserve assets

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bn$ China: FX reserve assets

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bn$ Japan: FX reserve assets

700

900

1100

1300

1500

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bn$ OPEC: FX reserve assets

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bn$ Asia ex-China/Japan: FX reserve assets

300

400

500

600

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bn$ Russia: FX reserve assets

RUB free float

400

500

600

700

800

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bn$ Latin America: FX reserves assets

200

250

300

350

400

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bn$ EMU countries: FX reserve assets

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bn$ Switzerland: FX reserve assets

SNB targets CHF



[Date]

33


Appendix 17 Current account balances (% of GDP): G7 countries + China

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

%GDP US : C/A balance

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

%GDP EMU: C/A balance

consolidated

sum of EMU countries

-2

0

2

4

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

%GDP Japan : C/A balance

4

5

6

7

8

9

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

%GDP Germany: C/A balance

-4

-2

0

2

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

%GDP France: C/A balance

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

%GDP UK : C/A balance

-4

-2

0

2

4

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

%GDP Canada: C/A balance

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

%GDP Italy/Spain : C/A balance

Italy

Spain

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

%GDP China : trade balance & C/A balance

trade balance

C/A balance



[Date]

34


Appendix 18 Current account balances (% of GDP): emerging countries (selection)

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

%GDP India : C/A balance

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

%GDP Brazil : C/A balance

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

%GDP Russia : C/A balance

-4

-2

0

2

4

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

%GDP Indonesia : C/A balance

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

%GDP Mexico : C/A balance

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

%GDP Turkey : C/A balance

6

8

10

12

14

16

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

%GDP Taiwan : C/A balance

-2

0

2

4

6

8

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

%GDP South Korea : C/A balance

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

%GDP South Africa : C/A balance



[Date]

35


Appendix 19 Exchange rates vs. EUR or USD: major currencies

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

1€ = … US$

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

1£ = … US$

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

1US$ = … JPY

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7.0

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

1US$ = … RMB (renminbi)

move from "USD peg"to "basket peg"

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

1€ = … CHF

CHF/EUR peg

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

1US$ = … KRW (won)

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

1US$ = … BRL (real)

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

1US$ = … AUD & CAD

AUD

CAD

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

1US$ = … RUB (Russian ruble)



[Date]

36

Source : Bloomberg, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 20 Government debt (as a % of GDP) : European countries (selection)

60

65

70

75

80

85

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% GDP Germany: government debt

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% GDP France: government debt

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% GDP Italy: government debt

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% GDP Spain: government debt

80

90

100

110

120

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% GDP Belgium: government debt

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% GDP Greece: government debt

haircut

2030405060708090

100110120130

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% GDP Ireland: government debt

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% GDP Portugal: government debt

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% GDP EMU: government debt

budget balance (rhs)



[Date]

37


Appendix 21 Sovereign ratings: European countries (selection)

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

scale France rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IGS&P cut

Moody's cut

Fitch cut

S&P cut

Fitch cut

Moody's cut

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

scale Germany rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk status

investment grade

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

scale Belgium rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IG

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

scale Italy rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IG

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

scale Spain rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IG

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

scale Ireland rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IG

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

scale Portugal rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IG

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

scale Greece rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1junk status

investment grade

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

scale UK rating (avg S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IG Moody's cut Fitch

cut



[Date]

38

[Date]

38

Sources: central banks, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 22 Bank financing by the Eurosystem

0

100

200

300

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bnEUR Germany: ECB refinancing

LTRO

MRO

0

25

50

75

100

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bnEUR Netherlands: ECB refinancing

MRO + LTRO

0

50

100

150

200

250

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bnEUR France: ECB refinancing

LTRO

MRO

MRO+LTRO0

100

200

300

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bnEUR Italy: ECB refinancing

LTRO

MRO

0

100

200

300

400

500

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bnEUR Spain: ECB refinancing

LTRO

MRO

0

25

50

75

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bnEUR Portugal: ECB refinancing

LTRO

MRO

0

50

100

150

200

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bnEUR Ireland: ECB/NCB refinancing

ELA

LTRO

MRO

0

5

10

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bnEUR Finland: ECB refinancing

LTRO

MRO

0

50

100

150

200

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

bnEUR Greece: ECB /NCB refinancing

ELA

LTRO

MRO



[Date]

39

[Date]

39

Sources: central banks, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 23 Bank loans to the private sector: European countries (selection)

-3

0

3

6

9

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

y/y% Germany: loans to the private sector

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

y/y% France: loans to the private sector

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

y/y% Italy: loans to the private sector

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

y/y% Spain: loans to the private sector

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

y/y% Ireland: loans to the private sector

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

y/y% Netherlands: loans to the private sector

reclassificationof assets

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

y/y% Finland: loans to the private sector

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

y/y% Greece: loans to the private sector

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

y/y% Portugal: loans to the private sector



[Date]

40

Appendix 24 10-year government bond yield


0

1

2

3

4

5

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% US: 10Y government bond yield

2000-2009

2010-2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Japan: 10Y government bond yield

2000-2009

2010-2012

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Portugal/Ireland: 10Y government bond yield

Ireland

Portugal

0

1

2

3

4

5

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Germany: 10Y government bond yield

2000-2009

2010-2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% UK: 10Y government bond yield

2000-2009

2010-2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% France: 10Y government bond yield

2000-2009

2010-2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Netherlands: 10Y government bond yield

2000-2009

2010-2012

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Spain: 10Y government bond yield

2000-09 2010 -2012

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% Italy: 10Y government bond yield

2000-092010 -2012

Economy & Rates - Oddo Seydler Bank AG · Economy & Rates March 2016 (figures and charts updated on...

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Transcript of Economy & Rates - Oddo Seydler Bank AG · Economy & Rates March 2016 (figures and charts updated on...