Dr. Bill ConerlyEconomist & Business Consultant

Opportunities & Risks in the Evolving Business Cycle

Topics

U.S. Economy

The LaborChallenge

The Flexible Stance

?

World Economic Growth

Source: FocusEconomics consensus

0

1

2

3

4

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

annu

al %

cha

nge

U.S. Economic Growth

average

0

1

2

3

4

2015 2016 2017

% c

hang

e

Dr. Bill Conerly forecast

Consumer Income & Spending Growth

Disposable Income

Spending

0123456

2015 2016 2017 2018

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e

Inflation

All Items

Ex Food & Energy

-1

0

1

2

3

2015 2016 2017 2018

% c

hang

e12

-mon

ths

Interest Rates

Forecast: Dr. Bill Conerly

10-year Treasury

3-monthT-bill

0

1

2

3

4

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

perc

ent

U.S. Economic Forecast

Forecast of inflation-adjusted GDP: Dr. Bill Conerly

0

1

2

3

4

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

perc

ent

Topics

U.S. Economy

The LaborChallenge

The Flexible Stance

?

Unemployment

3

4

5

6

7

2015 2016 2017 2018

perc

ent

Working-age Population Growth

2020-2030

0

5

10

15

20

1850 1900 1950 2000

mill

ions

decade ending year

Civil War

Population ages 20-60; projections by Census Bureau

•Retention most important•First-level managers key to retention•Hiring: recruit for retention•Technology

Leadership in Today’s Tight Labor Market

Cost of Labor & Technology

Labor

Com-puters

-15%-10%

-5%0%5%

10%

2015 2016 2017

% c

hang

e fr

om 2

015

Topics

U.S. Economy

The LaborChallenge

The Flexible Stance

?

Risk of Recession

The Wall Street Journal survey

0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2016 2017 2018

perc

ent

•Economy•Technology

•Social Attitudes•Government

•Competition

Uncertainty

The Sprinter’s Stance

The Flexible Stance

•What will I do in a recession?•What will I do in strong growth?

Contingency Planning

The Businomics® Newsletter

Bill @ ConerlyConsulting.com

one “n”

Questions?

Dr. Bill ConerlyEconomist & Business Consultant