Economics of UPK

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1 Economics of UPK Benefits and Costs of Quality Early Childhood Education for All Presentation at a Conference on The Law and Policy of Universal Preschool Chicago, IL October 13, 2006 W. Steven Barnett, Ph.D. National Institute for Early Education Research www.nieer.org

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Economics of UPK. Benefits and Costs of Quality Early Childhood Education for All Presentation at a Conference on The Law and Policy of Universal Preschool Chicago, IL October 13, 2006 W. Steven Barnett, Ph.D. National Institute for Early Education Research www.nieer.org. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Economics of UPK

Page 1: Economics of UPK

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Economics of UPK

Benefits and Costs of Quality Early Childhood Education for All

Presentation at a Conference onThe Law and Policy of Universal Preschool

Chicago, ILOctober 13, 2006

W. Steven Barnett, Ph.D.National Institute for Early Education Research

www.nieer.org

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Benefits of Early Education

Many studies in the US and elsewhere Increased test scores and school success Better social behavior

Three benefit cost analyses Increased earnings and tax revenue Lower government costs Lower crime costs

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Three Benefit-Cost Analyses with Disadvantaged Children

Abecedarian Chicago High/Scope Year began 1972 1985 1962Location Chapel Hill, NC Chicago, IL Ypsilanti, MISample size 111 1,539 123Design RCT Matched

neighborhoodRCT

Ages 6 wks-age 5 Ages 3-4 Ages 3-4

Program schedule

Full-day, year round

Half-day, school year

Half-day, school year

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High/Scope Perry Preschool: Educational Effects

45%

15%

34%

66%

49%

15%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Graduated from highschool on time

Age 14 achievementat 10th %ile +

Special Education(Cog.)

Program groupNo-program group

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High/Scope Perry Preschool: Economic Effects at Age 27

20%

13%

7%

41%

36%

29%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Never on welfare asadult

Own home

Earn $2,000 +monthly

Program group

No-program group

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High/Scope Perry Preschool: Economic Effects at 40

Source: Schweinhart et al., 2005

50%

62%

40%

76%

76%

60%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Had SavingsAccount

Employed

Earned > $20K

Program groupNo-program group

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High/Scope Perry Preschool: Arrests per person by age 27

1.5

0.7

2.5

1.2

0.6

0.5 2.3 arrests

4.6 arrests

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

No program

Program

Felony Misdemeanor Juvenile

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Perry Preschool: Crime Effects at 40Source: Schweinhart et al. 2005

34%

48%

55%

14%

33%

36%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Drug Crime

Violent Crime

Arrested > 5X

Program group

No-program group

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Abecedarian : Academic Benefits

13%

51%

55%

48%

36%

67%

31%

25%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

4 Yr College

HS Graduation

Grade Repeater

Special Education

Program groupNo-program group

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80

85

90

95

100

105

8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

AGE (Years)

RE

AD

ING

SC

OR

E

TREATMENT

CONTROL

Abecedarian Reading Ach. Over Time

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80

85

90

95

100

105

8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

AGE (Years)

MA

TH

SC

OR

ES

TREATMENT

CONTROL

Abecedarian Math Achievement Over Time

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Chicago CPC: Academic and Social Benefits at School Exit

25%

38%

25%

39%

17%

23%

14%

50%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Juvenile Arrest

Grade Repeater

Special Education

HS Graduation

Program groupNo-program group

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Economic Returns to Pre-K for Disadvantaged Children

Cost Benefits

B/C

Perry Pre-K $16,264 $277,631 17.07 Abecedarian $36,929 $139,571 3.78 Chicago $ 7,417 $ 52,936 7.14

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Other Relevant RCT’swith Long-Term Follow-UP

Milwaukee Project CARE IHDP (age 18 follow-up, not disadv.) Houston PCDC Mauritius Preschool Study

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Could Universal Pre-K Produce Similar Benefits for the Middle Class?

Middle class children have fairly high rates of the problems that preschool reduces for low-income children.

Reducing these problems could generate large benefits.

Income Retention DropoutLowest 20% 17% 23%20-80% 12% 11%Highest 20% 8% 3%

Source:US Department of Education, NCES (1997). Dropout rates in the United States: 1995. Figures are multi-year averages.

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Cognitive Readiness Gap—Half as Big at Median as for the Poor (bottom 20%)

Abilities of Entering Kindergarteners by Family Income--National Data, Fall 1998 (reported by NIEER from ECLS-K)

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

Low est 20% 2nd Low est20%

Middle 20% 2nd Highest20%

Highest 20%

Reading

Math

GeneralKnowledge

School Readiness Gap

Abilities Scores

FamilyIncome

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Social Readiness GapSocial Skills of Entering Kindergarteners by

Family Income

8.00

8.20

8.40

8.60

8.80

9.00

9.20

9.40

9.60

9.80

Lowest 20% 2nd Lowest 20% Middle 20% 2nd Highest 20% Top 20%

SocialSkills

School Readiness Gap

Social Scores

FamilyIncome

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Effects of Today’s Programs

Two new rigorous state pre-K studies National Impact Study of Head Start Michigan School Readiness Program Cost Quality and Outcomes NICHD Child care Study EPPE in England

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Oklahoma’s Universal Pre-K

3,028 children in Tulsa public schools Rigorous RD design Gains for all SES & ethnic groups Literacy and Math gains

Smaller than Perry and Abecedarian Similar to CPC

Larger gains for minority and poor children

Source: Gormley et al. (2004). CROCUS/Georgetown University

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NIEER Evaluation of 5 State Pre-K Programs

5,071 children in 5 States OK and WV are universal MI, NJ, & SC targeted Gains from Pre-K in all 5 states Gains in language, literacy & math All children gain, low-income gain more

Source: Barnett et al. (2005). NIEER/Rutgers University

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Is Targeting More Cost-Effective?

Targeting is costly and imperfect Poverty is a moving target Need is not defined by targeting alone Targeting is not perfect

Benefits do not stop at the poverty line Middle class has similar problems Benefits decrease gradually with income

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Economic Comparison of Targeted and Universal Pre-K

Targeted Programs Have Lower Total Cost

Universal Programs Have Higher Benefits

--they can reach more of the target children

--greater diversity in the classroom increases gains for disadvantaged children--some benefits gained for all or most children

Under Plausible Assumptions Universal is Better Investment

Source: Barnett (2004). Maximizing returns from pre-kindergarten education. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Conference.

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High Quality Preschool Programs Needed to Produce Benefits

Well-educated preschool teachers

Adequate teacher compensation

Small classes and reasonable teacher:child ratios

Strong supervision

High standards and accountability

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Conclusions

Pre-K for all can be a sound investment

Too few children attend now

Quality and intensity is too low

Universal can be more cost-effective

We can target within universal