Economics CAFI II Stage Gate Review Denver, CO May 1, 2007 Tim Eggeman* - Neoterics International...
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Transcript of Economics CAFI II Stage Gate Review Denver, CO May 1, 2007 Tim Eggeman* - Neoterics International...
![Page 1: Economics CAFI II Stage Gate Review Denver, CO May 1, 2007 Tim Eggeman* - Neoterics International Richard Elander - National Renewable Energy Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649ecf5503460f94bdcf21/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
EconomicsCAFI II Stage Gate Review
Denver, COMay 1, 2007
Tim Eggeman* - Neoterics InternationalRichard Elander - National Renewable Energy Laboratory
NEOTERICS INTERNATIONALUsing Technology to Create Business Innovation
![Page 2: Economics CAFI II Stage Gate Review Denver, CO May 1, 2007 Tim Eggeman* - Neoterics International Richard Elander - National Renewable Energy Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649ecf5503460f94bdcf21/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
Boiler+
Generator
Block Flow
Hydrolysis+
Fermentation
FeedHandling RecoveryPretreatmentStover
Syrup +Solids
Chemicals Water
Enzymes CO2 Water
EtOH
Steam
Power
![Page 3: Economics CAFI II Stage Gate Review Denver, CO May 1, 2007 Tim Eggeman* - Neoterics International Richard Elander - National Renewable Energy Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649ecf5503460f94bdcf21/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
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Aspen Plus – GUI w/ Hierarchy
![Page 4: Economics CAFI II Stage Gate Review Denver, CO May 1, 2007 Tim Eggeman* - Neoterics International Richard Elander - National Renewable Energy Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649ecf5503460f94bdcf21/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
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Aspen Plus – GUI w/ Hierarchy
![Page 5: Economics CAFI II Stage Gate Review Denver, CO May 1, 2007 Tim Eggeman* - Neoterics International Richard Elander - National Renewable Energy Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649ecf5503460f94bdcf21/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
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Current vs. Goal Cases
• Current: Laboratory Performance– Pretreatment– Conditioning– Enzymatic Hydrolysis– Fermentation
• Goal: Likely Performance of Above Steps at Commercial Scale
![Page 6: Economics CAFI II Stage Gate Review Denver, CO May 1, 2007 Tim Eggeman* - Neoterics International Richard Elander - National Renewable Energy Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649ecf5503460f94bdcf21/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
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Solicit Guidance from CAFI Advisory Board
• Enzymes– Loading– Type– Cost basis
• Fermentation– Conditioning– Concentration
basis– Scale up of lab
data
• Pretreatment Configuration– Reactor cost– Chemical
recovery– Consistent
basis for improvements
![Page 7: Economics CAFI II Stage Gate Review Denver, CO May 1, 2007 Tim Eggeman* - Neoterics International Richard Elander - National Renewable Energy Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649ecf5503460f94bdcf21/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
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CAFI 2 vs. CAFI 1
• Poplar vs. Stover
• Improved Definition and Consistency of Modeling Assumptions
• Improved/Tailored Enzyme Cocktails
• Conditioning & Fermentability Tests
![Page 8: Economics CAFI II Stage Gate Review Denver, CO May 1, 2007 Tim Eggeman* - Neoterics International Richard Elander - National Renewable Energy Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649ecf5503460f94bdcf21/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
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Economic ModelingCapital Costs
Fixed - Direct Purchased Equipment Installation - Indirect - Contingency - Start-up
Working
Revenues
Ethanol SalesElectricity Sales
Operating Costs
Variable – Stover Enzymes Other
Fixed - Labor Maintenance Insurance Depreciation
Discounted Cash Flow
2.5 yr Construction, 0.5 yr Start-up 20 yr Operation100% Equity, No Subsidy
Rational EtOH Pricing Rather Than Market Pricing10% Real After Tax Discount Rate
Performance Measures
Total Fixed Capital Per Annual Gallon of CapacityPlant Level Cash Costs
Minimum Ethanol Selling Price (MESP)
![Page 9: Economics CAFI II Stage Gate Review Denver, CO May 1, 2007 Tim Eggeman* - Neoterics International Richard Elander - National Renewable Energy Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649ecf5503460f94bdcf21/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
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MESP, $/gal
Stover PoplarCurrent Goal Current Goal
Ideal Pretreatment 1.49 0.81 1.42 0.77
Acidic
Neutral pH
Alkaline
No Pretreatment 12.86 7.84 36.73 19.63
Results (Interim)
![Page 10: Economics CAFI II Stage Gate Review Denver, CO May 1, 2007 Tim Eggeman* - Neoterics International Richard Elander - National Renewable Energy Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649ecf5503460f94bdcf21/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
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Fixed Capital
Water Treatment$1.3MM
Storage$1.9MM
Steam & Power$39.1MM
Other Utilities$4.5MMOther OSBL
$4.9MM
Feed Handling$7.5MM
Fermentation$9.5MM
Recovery$22.6MM
Start-Up$13.5MM
Project Contingency$2.7MM
Home Office &Construction Fee
$22.9MM
Field Expenses$18.3MM
Total Fixed Direct Fixed
$MMDirects 91.3Indirects 57.4Total 148.7
Stover Goal, Ideal Pretreatment
![Page 11: Economics CAFI II Stage Gate Review Denver, CO May 1, 2007 Tim Eggeman* - Neoterics International Richard Elander - National Renewable Energy Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649ecf5503460f94bdcf21/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
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Cash Costs and MESP
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
Ideal Acidic Neutral Alkaline No Pretreatment
Net Feed Other Variable Fixed w/o Depreciation Depreciation Income Tax Return on Capital
Stover Current Cases, Proof Year: 4th Year of Operation$/gal EtOH
MESP
CashCostPlantLevel
![Page 12: Economics CAFI II Stage Gate Review Denver, CO May 1, 2007 Tim Eggeman* - Neoterics International Richard Elander - National Renewable Energy Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649ecf5503460f94bdcf21/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
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Conclusions
• Consistent Protocols and Materials
• Improved Methodology vs. CAFI I
• Yield Drives Economics
![Page 13: Economics CAFI II Stage Gate Review Denver, CO May 1, 2007 Tim Eggeman* - Neoterics International Richard Elander - National Renewable Energy Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649ecf5503460f94bdcf21/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
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Acknowledgements• US Department of Energy Office of the Biomass
Program, Contract DE-FG36-04GO14017
• The National Renewable Energy Laboratory
• Biomass Refining Consortium for Applied Fundamentals and Innovation (CAFI)
• Natural Resources Canada
• Genencor International
![Page 14: Economics CAFI II Stage Gate Review Denver, CO May 1, 2007 Tim Eggeman* - Neoterics International Richard Elander - National Renewable Energy Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649ecf5503460f94bdcf21/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
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Project Institutions
![Page 15: Economics CAFI II Stage Gate Review Denver, CO May 1, 2007 Tim Eggeman* - Neoterics International Richard Elander - National Renewable Energy Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649ecf5503460f94bdcf21/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Ag Residues
Energy Crops
Total Complex Carbohydrate, wt%
Feedstocks
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Ag Residues
Energy Crops
Total Complex Carbohydrate, wt%
CAFI I & IIStover
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Ag Residues
Energy Crops
Total Complex Carbohydrate, wt%
CAFI I & IIStover
CAFI IIPoplar
(Both)
![Page 16: Economics CAFI II Stage Gate Review Denver, CO May 1, 2007 Tim Eggeman* - Neoterics International Richard Elander - National Renewable Energy Laboratory.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649ecf5503460f94bdcf21/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Ag Residues
Energy Crops
Lignin, wt%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Ag Residues
Energy Crops
Lignin, wt%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Ag Residues
Energy Crops
Lignin, wt%
CAFI IIStover
CAFI IStover
Feedstocks
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Ag Residues
Energy Crops
Lignin, wt%
CAFI IIStover
CAFI IStover
CAFI IIPoplar
CAFI IIPoplar
(Small Batch)