Economics 210c/236a Christina Romer Fall 2011 David Romerwebfac/cromer/e210c_f11/Lecture 8...
Transcript of Economics 210c/236a Christina Romer Fall 2011 David Romerwebfac/cromer/e210c_f11/Lecture 8...
LECTURE 8Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound
October 19, 2011
Economics 210c/236a Christina RomerFall 2011 David Romer
Krugman’s Baseline Model – Assumptions (I)
• Discrete time.
• Identical, infinitely-lived agents.
• Representative agent has U = ∑tDt ln ct, 0 < D < 1.
• Each agent receives an endowment y of the consumption good each period.
• Can sell endowment for money, and buy goods with money.
• Economy is competitive and prices are perfectly flexible (!).
• Perfect foresight.
Krugman’s Baseline Model – Assumptions (II)
• Cash-in-advance constraint. Within period t:
• Agents start with some holdings of money and bonds (from period t-1).
• There’s then a market for trading money and bonds.
• Call the representative agent’s holdings after these trades Mt and Bt.
• The cash-in-advance constraint is ct ≤ Mt/Pt.
• After the agent has bought and sold goods, it receives interest on its bond holdings, and any lump-sum taxes or transfers are implemented.
• The cash-in-advance constraint and perfect foresight imply that ct = Mt/Pt or it = 0 (or both).
Households’ First-Order Condition
• Suppose the economy is in equilibrium, and consider an agent thinking of spending $1 less on ct and using the proceeds to increase ct+1.
•
•
• => … => (*)
• Note that this holds even if it = 0.
)y/1)(P/1(MC t=
)y/D](P/)i1[(MB 1tt ++=
1)P/P)(D/1(i t1tt −= +
The Steady State with Constant M
• Suppose M is constant at some level (denoted M*).
• If there is a steady state, P is constant. Call this P*.
• Then equation (*), , simplifies to for all t, or
• Note that i* > 0.
1)P/P)(D/1(i t1tt −= +
1)D/1(it −= .D/)D1(*i −=
The Possibility of a “Liquidity Trap”
• Assume that starting in Period 2, the economy is in steady state.
• So P2 = P*, i2 = i* > 0.
• So (*) becomes 1)P/*P)(D/1(i 11 −=
0
i1
P1
CC
The Possibility of a “Liquidity Trap” (cont.)
• Households’ allocation of wealth between money and bonds in period 1:
• If i1 > 0: M1/P1 = y => P1 = M1/y.
• If i1 = 0: M1/P1 ≥ y => P1 ≤ M1/y.
0
i1
P1
MM
The Effects of an Increase in M* when i1 = 0
i1
0P1
CC
MM
Recall CC equation: i1 = (1/D)(P*/P1) - 1
CC’
Some More Experiments (I)
• Suppose the economy is in a liquidity trap in periods 1 and 2, then in steady state with i = i* > 0. Raising M1 or M2 has no effect on aggregate demand in any period. But raising M* raises aggregate demand in period 2 and in period 1.
• Continue to assume a liquidity trap in period 1 and steady state starting in period 3. Suppose initially i2 > 0. Raising M2to the point where i2 = 0 raises aggregate demand in period 1. That is, when the economy is in a liquidity trap, promising to stay in the trap longer rises aggregate demand.
Some More Experiments (II)
• Consider raising M by the same proportion in all periods. Then P rises by the same proportion in all periods.
• Suppose the economy is in steady state starting in period 2, and suppose the central bank targets a zero inflation rate from period 1 to period 2. Thus its choice of M* moves one-for-one with movements in P1. Then if something pushes the equilibrium real rate in period 1 below 0, there is no equilibrium: P1 falls without limit. Inflation targeting eliminates any nominal anchor for the economy.
FOMC Statement, Aug. 12, 2003
“The Committee judges that, on balance, the risk of inflation becoming undesirably low is likely to be the predominant concern for the foreseeable future. In these circumstances, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period.”
Channels of Monetary Policy Transmission
• Nominal interest rates.
• Expected inflation.
• Asset prices.
• The extent of credit-market imperfections.
• The real exchange rate (and expectations about the real exchange rate).
• Expectations abut future output.
• The price level (and expectations about the price level).
Tools of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound
• Communication about objectives, or the formal adoption of new objectives.
• Communication about future path of safe short-term interest rate (or of supply of high-powered money).
• Communication about the channels of monetary policy (such as the exchange rate or future output).
• Purchases of assets other than short-term government debt.
• Conventional open-market operations?
• Money-financed fiscal expansions (helicopter drops)?
Some Important Questions
• Could some of the tools be counterproductive?
• Could the mix of outcomes (especially, in terms of output and inflation) be different for these tools than for conventional open-market operations in normal times?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-
29
Jul-2
9
Jan-
30
Jul-3
0
Jan-
31
Jul-3
1
Jan-
32
Jul-3
2
Jan-
33
Jul-3
3
Jan-
34
Jul-3
4
Jan-
35
Jul-3
5
Nominal Interest Rate on 3- to 6-month Treasury Notes
1929
-01
1929
-05
1929
-09
1930
-01
1930
-05
1930
-09
1931
-01
1931
-05
1931
-09
1932
-01
1932
-05
1932
-09
1933
-01
1933
-05
1933
-09
1934
-01
1934
-05
1934
-09
1935
-01
1935
-05
1935
-09
1936
-01
1936
-05
1936
-09
1937
-01
1937
-05
1937
-09
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
Indu
stri
al P
rodu
ctio
n (L
ogar
ithm
s)Industrial Production
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9Ja
n-29
Jun-
29
Nov
-29
Apr
-30
Sep-
30
Feb-
31
Jul-3
1
Dec
-31
May
-32
Oct
-32
Mar
-33
Aug
-33
Jan-
34
Jun-
34
Nov
-34
Apr
-35
Sep-
35
Feb-
36
Jul-3
6
Dec
-36
May
-37
Oct
-37
Prod
ucer
Pri
ce In
dex,
Log
arith
ms
Producer Price Index, All Commodities
2.8
2.9
3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.519
32:0
119
32:0
319
32:0
519
32:0
719
32:0
919
32:1
119
33:0
119
33:0
319
33:0
519
33:0
719
33:0
919
33:1
119
34:0
119
34:0
319
34:0
519
34:0
719
34:0
919
34:1
119
35:0
119
35:0
319
35:0
519
35:0
719
35:0
919
35:1
119
36:0
119
36:0
319
36:0
519
36:0
719
36:0
919
36:1
1
Loga
rith
ms
M1
What are the key elements of the regime?
• Gold standard
• Commitment to a balanced budget
• Belief in small government
What is the mechanism by which the regime change affected inflationary expectations?
• Fiscal expansion gives the government an incentive to inflate.
• So, fiscal expansion leads to monetary expansion.
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus
Outlays
Receipts
Surplus
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
Mill
ions
of D
olla
rsGold Inflows to the U.S.
Mishkin Method of Estimating Ex Ante Real Rate
Ex Post Real Rate:rep
t = it – πt
where i is the nominal rate and π is actual inflation.
Ex Ante Real Rate:
reat = it – πe
t
Where πe is expected inflation.
The difference between rep and rea isunanticipated inflation (εt ):
rept = (it – πt)+ (πe
t – πet )
rept = (it – πe
t) – (πt – πet)
= reat – εt
• Under rational expectations, expectation of unanticipated inflation at a point in time is zero.
• You can’t expect to be surprised.
Think of constructing estimate of πe:
πet = αit + β’Xt
where X is a vector of information known at time t.
rept = it – (αit + β’Xt) + εt
rept = (1 – α)it – β’Xt + εt
Regress rep on i, and other explanatory variables known at time t.
Fitted values are estimates of rea.