l Global Research l

Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix

All rights reserved. Standard Chartered Bank 2013 research.standardchartered.com

Euro-area peripheral sentiment improving

EU Commission sentiment survey

Sources: Eurostat, Standard Chartered Research

Greece Portugal

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13

Key data releases/events

SC Prior

Monday 24 June

SG CPI, % y/y 2.0 1.5

TW IP, % y/y 0.40 -0.88

VN CPI, % y/y 6.60 6.36

DE IFO bus. climate indicator 106.2 105.7

Tuesday 25 June

HK Exports, % y/y 3.4 7.7

PH Trade balance, USD bn -0.71 -0.59

US Case-Shiller housing, % y/y 10.50 10.87

US Durable goods orders, % m/m 3.6 3.5

US New home sales, '000s SAAR 465 454

Wednesday 26 June

SG IP, % y/y 2.8 4.7

Thursday 27 June

TW Lead. indicators index, % m/m 0.6 0.5

TW Benchmark interest rate, % 1.875 1.875

EA Economic sentiment 90.0 89.4

US Core PCE price index, % y/y 1.1 1.1

US Personal income, % m/m 0.2 0.0

Friday 28 June

KR IP, % y/y -1.6 1.7

JP H‟hold spending, % y/y 2.0 1.5

JP IP, % m/m, SA 1.2 0.9

JP Nat‟l CPI ex-fresh food, % y/y -0.1 -0.4

JP Retail sales % y/y -0.1 -0.2

TH Current account, USD mn -1.64 -3.36

DE CPI, % y/y 1.6 1.6

US Chicago manufacturing PMI 55.0 58.7

25-30 June

VN GDP YTD, % y/y 5.0 4.9

Key central bank policy calls

Now Next Chg

US 0.25 Q3-2015 +25

Euro area 0.5 Q3-2015 +25

China 6.00 Q1-2014 +25

India 7.25 Q4-2013 -25

Korea 2.50 Jul-2013 -25

Indonesia 6.00 11-Jul-13 +25

Thailand 2.50 H2-2014 +25

South Africa 5.00 Q2-2014 +50

Brazil 8.00 10-Jul-13 +50

Source: Standard Chartered Research

Economics Weekly | 19:45 GMT 20 June 2013

21-Jun – In the aftermath of the Fed

Markets will look for further guidance from Fed speakers

Euro-area surveys should confirm a positive trend

Japanese data likely to continue to benefit from policy stimulus

Elsewhere in Asia, activity is picking up, despite uncertainty in China

Overview Sarah Hewin, +44 20 7885 6251, Sarah.Hewin@sc.com

Fed speakers this week are likely to add colour to the 19 June FOMC statement and

Chairman Bernanke‟s comments. Bernanke warned that asset-purchase tapering

could begin later this year – though the path of the economy remains key. This week,

durable goods orders, personal income and expenditure, and new home sales will be

in focus. The monthly core PCE inflation is expected to remain near record lows, but

Bernanke expressed confidence that inflation will move higher in the medium term.

Strong headline US durable goods orders (DGO) are likely, due to a surge in aircraft

orders. But ISM new orders were weak, and a likely contraction in core DGO

(ex-transportation) would suggest a softening investment trend. We expect modest

growth in personal spending, but will be looking for signs that the fiscal squeeze is

taking a toll. US housing data (the S&P Case-Shiller housing price index and new

home sales) are likely to confirm the ongoing uptrend in the real estate market.

Competitiveness, jobs and growth will be the themes at the EU leaders‟ summit on

27-28 June, with discussions on country-specific structural reforms and national

budgets (concluding the 2013 European co-ordination „semester‟). Banking union will

also be on the agenda, with difficult questions on the restructuring and winding up of

failing banks still to be resolved. Euro-area economic surveys have improved in the

past couple of months, although they still point to weak activity. Sentiment indicators

are expected to confirm that the region‟s economy is moving in the right direction,

albeit at a very modest pace, with even the peripheral economies doing better. The

IFO business climate index should indicate that Germany is leading the other major

economies in the region, even though manufacturing remains soft.

It is a busy data week in Japan; we expect to see ongoing signs that policy stimulus,

optimism over reforms and yen depreciation are supporting economic recovery.

Industrial production, retail sales and household spending should continue to recover,

while deflation is likely to have moderated in May.

Elsewhere in Asia, there should be further signs that activity is picking up gradually,

despite nervousness about China‟s economy and the liquidity squeeze there.

Industrial production should move higher in Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, and

GDP is likely to have accelerated in Vietnam in Q2-2013. Trade data in Hong Kong,

the Philippines and Thailand may, however, reveal still-weak global demand.

Taiwan‟s central bank is expected to remain cautious at its policy meeting on

27 June; we have lowered our growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.9% in 2013, lowered

our CPI forecast, and pushed back our first rate hike expectation to Q1-2014.

Economics Weekly

GR13AP | 21 June 2013 2

Key events/data in the week ahead

Africa

Economy Key data/event Period GMT Forecast Previous

Wednesday 26 June

Ghana CPI, % y/y May 10:00 10.5 10.6

Friday 28 June

South Africa Trade balance, ZAR bn May 12:00 -10.00 -15.02

Asia

Economy Key data/event Period GMT Forecast Previous

Friday 21 June

Vietnam National assembly releases economic assessment

Monday 24 June

Taiwan Unemployment rate, %, SA May 00:30 4.17 4.19

Singapore CPI, % y/y May 05:00 2.0 1.5

Taiwan Industrial production, % y/y May 08:00 0.40 -0.88

Vietnam CPI, % y/y Jun 6.60 6.36

Tuesday 25 June

Philippines Trade balance, USD bn Apr 01:00 -0.71 -0.59

Philippines Imports, % y/y Apr 01:00 -0.5 -8.4

Philippines Total monthly imports, USD bn Apr 01:00 4.75 4.92

Hong Kong Trade balance, HKD bn May 08:30 -36.5 -42.7

Hong Kong Exports, % y/y May 08:30 3.4 7.7

Hong Kong Imports, % y/y May 08:30 3.5 9.0

Wednesday 26 June

Singapore Industrial production, % y/y May 05:00 2.8 4.7

New Zealand Trade balance, NZD mn May 22:45 350 157

New Zealand Exports, NZD bn May 22:45 4.10 3.95

New Zealand Imports, NZD bn May 22:45 3.75 3.80

Thursday 27 June

Taiwan Leading indicators index, % m/m May 08:00 0.6 0.5

Taiwan Benchmark interest rate, % 27-Jun 09:00 1.875 1.875

South Korea Industrial production, % y/y May 23:00 -1.6 1.7

South Korea Industrial production, % m/m, SA May 23:00 0.5 0.8

Japan Overall h‟hold spending, % y/y May 23:30 2.0 1.5

Japan Jobless rate, % May 23:30 4.2 4.1

Japan Job-to-applicant ratio May 23:30 0.89 0.89

Japan Nat‟l CPI, % y/y May 23:30 -0.5 -0.7

Japan Nat‟l CPI ex fresh food, % y/y May 23:30 -0.1 -0.4

Japan Nat‟l CPI ex food, energy, % y/y May 23:30 -0.3 -0.6

Japan Industrial production, % m/m, SA May P 23:50 1.2 0.9

Japan Industrial production, % y/y May P 23:50 -0.9 -3.4

Japan Retail sales, % m/m, SA May 23:50 1.1 0.6

Japan Retail sales, % y/y May 23:50 -0.1 -0.2

Friday 28 June

Thailand Current account, USD mn May 07:30 -1.64 -3.36

Thailand Private investment, % m/m May 07:30 -0.8 -1.6

Thailand Private consumption, % m/m May 07:30 1.0 -0.5

India Current account deficit, USD bn Q1 11:30 18.5 32.5

25-30 Jun

Vietnam Retail sales YTD, % y/y Jun 12.7 11.9

Vietnam Industrial production, % y/y Jun 8.0 6.7

Vietnam GDP YTD, % y/y Q2 5.0 4.9

Vietnam Imports YTD, % y/y Jun 20.6 20.5

Vietnam Exports YTD, % y/y Jun 19.3 18.0

Vietnam Trade balance, USD mn Jun 927 -553

24-26 June

Thailand Customs-based exports, % y/y May 07:30 -4.4 2.8

Thailand Customs-based imports, % y/y May 07:30 -4.0 8.9

Thailand Customs-based trade balance, USD mn May 07:30 -1.76 -4.14

Economics Weekly

GR13AP | 21 June 2013 3

Europe

Economy Key data/event Period GMT Forecast Previous

Friday 21 June

UK PSNB ex interventions, GBP bn May 08:30 12.6 6.3

Euro area ECB announces 3Y LTRO payment Weekly 10:00 – –

Monday 24 June

Germany IFO business climate June 08:00 106.2 105.7

Wednesday 26 June

Germany GfK consumer confidence July 06:00 6.5 6.5

UK CBI reported sales May 09:00 -6 -11

Thursday 27 June

Germany Unemployment change, ‟000s June 07:55 10 21

Germany Unemployment rate, % June 07:55 6.9 6.9

Euro area M3 money supply, % y/y May 08:30 3.3 3.2

UK GDP, % q/q (final) Q1 08:30 0.3 -0.3

Euro area Economic sentiment June 09:00 90.0 89.4

Euro area Business climate June 09:00 -0.62 -0.76

EU EU leaders‟ summit 13.45

Friday 28 June

Switzerland KOF leading indicator June 07:00 1.15 1.10

Germany CPI, EU harmonised, % y/y June P 09:00 1.6 1.6

Latin America

Economy Key data/event Period GMT Forecast Previous

Friday 21 June

Brazil IPCA-15 inflation % m/m Jun 14:00 0.36 0.46

Mexico Monetary policy meeting minutes Jun 15:00 – –

Monday 24 June

Brazil Central bank weekly economist survey 13:30

Mexico Bi-weekly CPI % bw/bw Jun-15 15:00 0.04 0.02

Tuesday 25 June

Mexico IGAE economic activity index % y/y (m/m) Apr 15:00 1.6 (0.2) -1.8 (0.3)

Friday 28 June

Chile Monetary policy meeting minutes Jun 14:30 – –

Colombia Monetary policy decision, % Jun – 3.25 3.25

United States

Economy Key data/event Period GMT Forecast Previous

Monday 24 June

United States Fed‟s Fisher speaks in London 16:30

Tuesday 25 June

United States Durable goods orders, % m/m May 12:30 3.6 3.5

United States Durable goods orders ex transportation, % m/m May 12:30 -0.5 1.5

United States S&P Case-Shiller 20-city housing price, % y/y Apr 13:00 10.5 10.87

United States Conference board consumer confidence Jun 14:00 75.2 76.2

United States New home sales, ‟000s SAAR May 14:00 465 454

Wednesday 26 June

United States GDP, %q/q SAAR Q1 T 12:30 2.3 2.4

United States Core PCE, % q/q Q1 T 12:30 1.3 1.3

Thursday 27 June

United States Initial jobless claims, ‟000s 21 Jun 12:30 345 354

United States Core PCE price index, % y/y May 12:30 1.1 1.1

United States Personal income, % m/m May 12:30 0.2 0.0

United States Personal spending, % m/m May 12:30 0.3 -0.2

United States Pending home sales, m/m May 14:00 1.1 0.3

United States Fed‟s Powell speaks on monetary policy 14:30

United States Fed‟s Lockhart speaks on the economy 16:30

Friday 28 June

United States Fed‟s Lacker speaks on economic outlook 13:15

United States Chicago manufacturing PMI Jun 13:45 55.0 58.7

United States U‟ of Michigan consumer confidence Jun F 13:55 83.0 82.7

United States Fed‟s Williams speaks on monetary policy 19:30

Economics Weekly

GR13AP | 21 June 2013 4

Recent macro publications (13-19 June 2013)

On the Ground – Taiwan – Still on the path to recovery

Eddie Cheung | Lawrence Lai | Tony Phoo

We lower our GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 3.0% (from 3.9%); keep 2014 forecast unchanged at 4.3%

We revise down our 2013 inflation forecast to 1.4% (from 1.8%); revise up 2014 to 1.9% (from 1.3%)

We expect policy makers to keep the benchmark rate unchanged in 2013 and resume hikes in Q1-2014

We revise up our USD-TWD forecasts, in line with our GDP growth and inflation forecasts

We have an Underweight duration outlook on TWD bonds; curve to bear steepen on rising UST yields

On the Ground – China – The smog in Beijing Lan Shen | Li Wei | Stephen Green

The really important trends to define 2013-14 growth in China resist analysis

The „bonfire of the chops‟ has just started, again – and Premier Li reportedly wants more

Some are calling for a rate cut, but it is very unclear what help this would be

We revise down our CPI inflation calls for 2013-14 and push our rate hike call into 2014

Economic Alert – India – RBI is cautious now, data-dependent later

Anubhuti Sahay │Nagaraj Kulkarni │Priyanka Kishore │Samiran Chakraborty

The RBI leaves policy rates unchanged on recent INR weakness and upside risks to inflation

We expect no rate cut in July on marginally higher inflation; a rate cut in H2-FY14 is data-dependent

Supply pressure to offset support from rate-cut expectations; we remain Neutral duration

A dovish RBI is positive for the INR but global conditions will determine the extent of recent gains

On the Ground – Philippines – Infrastructure boom to boost growth

Jeff Ng

We now expect the economy to grow faster – 6.9% in 2013, 6.3% in 2014 and 7.0% in 2015

Core scenario: GDP growth to be boosted by PPP and non-PPP investment growth, and to peak in 2015

We expect more PPP projects to be finalised by end-2013, and PPP construction to peak in 2014-15

On the Ground – United States – Fed likely to emphasise gradualism

John Calverley | John Davies | Sophii Weng | Thomas Costerg

Chairman Bernanke is set to hint that policy tightening remains distant as the economy is still fragile

We still expect the Fed to start reducing QE in January, although risks are skewed towards an earlier date

The underlying momentum is softer than initially expected: we lower slightly our H2 growth forecast

Economic Alert – India – We expect a repo rate cut; it is a close call

Anubhuti Sahay | Nagaraj Kulkarni | Priyanka Kishore | Samiran Chakraborty

We expect the RBI to cut the repo rate by 25bps on 17 June

Recent INR weakness and inflation worries pose risks to this view and may keep the RBI on hold

Rates market does not expect a repo rate cut; stay Neutral GoISec duration

Indication of no more rate cuts may stall INR gains ahead of the FOMC outcome on 19 June

Economic Alert – Pakistan – FY14 budget to stimulate growth

Sayem Ali

The PMLN government‟s first budget targets 4.4% growth and a 35% increase in investment spending

The FY14 deficit target is 6.3% of GDP, down from 8.8% in FY13, on higher taxes and subsidy cuts

The budget is in line with IMF requirements for approval of a new USD 5bn Extended Term Facility

Positive for the PKR; bond yields are likely to rise on inflation concerns and increased deficit financing

Economics Weekly

GR13AP | 21 June 2013 5

Summary tables

Central bank outlook

Bold, underlined: Change in forecast since last Economics Weekly Source: Standard Chartered Research

Current 1Y change Next

Benchmark rate (%) (bps) Meeting Date SC forecast Date Action

Majors

US Fed funds target rate 0.25 0 31-Jul-13 Q3-2015 +25bps 15-Dec-08 -75bps

Euro area Refi rate 0.50 -50 4-Jul-13 Q3-2015 +25bps 2-May-13 -25bps

UK Bank rate 0.50 0 4-Jul-13 Q1-2015 +25bps 5-Mar-09 -50bps

Japan O/N call rate 0.0 - 0.1 0 11-Jul-13 Q1-2016 +10bps 19-Dec-08 -20bps

Canada O/N lending rate 1.00 0 17-Jul-13 Q3-2014 +25bps 9-Sep-10 +25bps

Australia Cash rate 2.75 -75 2-Jul-13 Q3-2013 -25bps 7-May-13 -25bps

New Zealand Cash rate 2.50 0 25-Jul-13 Q4-2013 +25bps 10-Mar-11 -50bps

Sw itzerland 3M LIBOR target 0.0-0.25 0 19-Sep-13 on hold -- 3-Aug-11 -25bps

Asia

China 1Y lending rate 6.00 -25 N/A Q1-2014 +25bps 6-Jul-12 -31bps

Hong Kong Base rate 0.50 0 31-Jul-13 Q3-2015 +25bps 16-Dec-08 -100bps

Taiw an Discount rate 1.88 0 27-Jun-13 Q1-2014 +12.5bps 30-Jun-11 +12.5bps

Korea Base rate 2.50 -75 11-Jul-13 Jul-13 -25bps 9-May-13 -25bps

Philippines Reverse repo rate 3.50 -50 25-Jul-13 Q4-2013 +25bps 25-Oct-12 -25bps

Malaysia O/N policy rate 3.00 0 11-Jul-13 Q4-2013 +25bps 5-May-11 +25bps

Indonesia BI rate 6.00 25 11-Jul-13 11-Jul-13 +25bps 13-Jun-13 +25bps

Thailand 1-day repo 2.50 -100 10-Jul-13 H2-2014 +25bps 29-May-13 -25bps

India Repo rate 7.25 -75 30-Jul-13 Q4-2013 -25bps 3-May-13 -25bps

Pakistan Discount rate 9.50 -250 Jun-13 Jan-14 +50bps 7-Dec-12 -50bps

Sri Lanka Repo rate 7.00 -50 12-Jul-13 Q1-2014 -25bps 10-May-13 -50bps

Vietnam Refi rate 7.00 -500 N/A Q3-2013 -50bps 13-May-13 -100bps

Other Emerging Markets

South Africa Repo rate 5.00 -50 18-Jul-13 Q2-2014 +50bps 19-Jul-12 -50bps

Kenya Central bank rate 8.50 700 July-2013 Q2-2014 +50bps 7-May-13 -100bps

Nigeria Monetary policy rate 12.00 575 23-Jul-2013 Q1-2014 +100bps 20-Sep-11 +275bps

Ghana Prime rate 16.00 200 19-Jul-13 Q1-2014 -50bps 22-May-12 +100bps

Uganda Central bank rate 11.00 800 Jul-2013 Mar-14 +50bps 4-Dec-12 -50bps

Brazil Selic rate 8.00 -50 10-Jul-13 10-Jul-13 +50bps May-13 +50bps

Chile Overnight rate 5.00 0 11-Jul-13 Q4-2013 +25bps Jan-12 -25bps

Colombia Min. repo rate 3.25 -200 28-Jun-13 Q4-2013 +25bps Mar-13 -50.bps

Mexico TdF Rate 4.00 -50 12-Jul-13 Q3-2013 -50bps Mar-13 -50.bps

Peru Reference rate 4.25 0 11-Jul-13 Q1-2014 +25bps May-11 +25bps

Turkey 1-w eek repo 4.50 -125 23-Jul-13 Sept -13 -25bps 16-May-13 -50bps

UAE Overnight repo rate 1.00 -50 N/A N/A +25bps 19-Dec-08 -25bps

Saudi Arabia Reverse repo rate 0.25 -50 N/A N/A +25bps 16-Jun-09 -25bps

Last changeForecast next change

We expect QE to continue until year-end at USD 85bn/month, before being reduced slowly.

The ECB is likely to utilise non-conventional policies to further stimulate growth

We expect the asset-purchase total to rise to GBP 400bn by end Q3-2013.

The monetary base target is an annual pace of about JPY60-70tn.

We expect BI to hike the BI rate and the FASBI rate both by 50bps to 6.50% and 4.75% respectively in Q3-2013

Economics Weekly

GR13AP | 21 June 2013 6

Rates forecasts

Forecasts in BLUE (RED) indicate upward (downward) revision

Source: Standard Chartered Research

 End-period Current Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14

% % % % %

United States Policy rate 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25

3M LIBOR 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28

10Y bond yield 2.36 2.40 2.10 2.25 2.50 2.75

Euro area Policy rate 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

3M EURIBOR 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35

10Y bond yield 1.56 1.75 1.50 1.60 1.75 2.00

United Kingdom Policy rate 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

3M LIBOR 0.51 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70

10Y bond yield 2.13 2.30 2.00 2.15 2.35 2.60

Australia Policy rate 2.75 2.75 2.50 2.50 3.00 3.25

3M OIS 2.65 2.65 2.50 2.85 3.10 3.25

China Policy rate 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.25 6.75

7-day repo rate 10.77 4.50 3.50 4.00 4.30 5.00

10Y bond yield 3.46 3.45 3.60 3.90 4.10 4.30

Hong Kong 3M HIBOR 0.38 0.38 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40

10Y bond yield 1.66 1.60 1.65 1.75 1.90 2.30

India Policy rate 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.00 7.00 7.00

91-day T-bill rate 7.41 7.00 7.00 7.20 7.20 7.25

10Y bond yield 7.35 7.25 7.25 7.50 7.75 7.75

Indonesia Policy rate 6.00 6.00 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50

FASBI rate 4.25 4.25 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75

10Y bond yield 6.73 6.75 7.00 7.10 7.20 7.30

Malaysia Policy rate 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.25

3M KLIBOR 3.21 3.20 3.20 3.45 3.45 3.45

10Y bond yield 3.50 3.40 3.50 3.70 3.75 3.80

Philippines Policy rate 3.50 3.50 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.00

3M PDST-F 1.96 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.50

10Y bond yield 3.35 3.50 3.80 4.00 4.20 4.50

Singapore 3M SGD SIBOR 0.38 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40

10Y bond yield 2.11 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.20 2.40

South Korea Policy rate 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00

91-day CD rate 2.69 2.60 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10

10Y bond yield 3.24 3.00 3.10 3.20 3.30 3.40

Taiw an Policy rate 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 2.00 2.13

3M TAIBOR 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.96 1.02

10Y bond yield 1.39 1.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55

Thailand Policy rate 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50

3M BIBOR 2.55 2.55 2.60 2.65 2.70 2.75

10Y bond yield 3.75 3.55 3.55 3.60 3.60 3.70

Vietnam Policy rate (Refi rate) 7.00 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50

Overnight VNIBOR 0.93 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 2.00

2Y bond yield 6.70 6.50 6.60 6.70 7.00 7.50

Ghana Policy rate 15.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 15.50 14.50

91-day T-bill rate 23.10 21.70 20.00 19.00 18.20 16.20

5Y bond yield 19.35 19.00 17.50 17.00 17.50 17.00

Kenya Policy rate 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 9.00

91-day T-bill rate 5.42 10.20 9.75 9.25 8.75 8.80

10Y bond yield 11.85 11.80 12.50 12.00 11.70 11.50

Nigeria Policy rate 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 13.00 13.00

91-day T-bill rate 11.48 11.90 11.40 10.90 11.90 11.70

10Y bond yield 14.75 14.00 13.00 13.80 14.20 15.00

South Africa Policy rate 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.50

91-day T-bill rate 5.21 5.19 5.22 5.26 5.38 5.56

10Y bond yield 7.59 7.75 7.65 7.55 7.50 7.50

Economics Weekly

GR13AP | 21 June 2013 7

Macro forecasts

Forecasts in BLUE (RED) indicate upward (downward) revision

* Fiscal year starts in April in India and Kuwait, July in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Egypt ^ Inflation: Core PCE deflator used for US

Source: Standard Chartered Research

Country

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14

Majors 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.9 -0.9 -1.0 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8

US^ 1.7 2.2 1.8 2.7 3.0 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.8 2.0 -3.1 -3.0 -3.0 -3.1 -2.9 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

Euro area 1.4 -0.6 -0.5 1.3 1.5 2.7 2.5 1.5 1.3 1.5 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.29 1.32 1.29 1.30 1.27

Japan -0.7 1.9 1.9 1.1 1.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 1.9 1.4 2.0 1.0 2.0 2.3 2.1 98.0 96.0 97.0 102.0 102.0

UK 0.9 -0.1 0.7 1.5 1.9 4.4 2.8 2.8 2.5 1.9 -1.9 -3.8 -2.0 -1.8 -2.5 1.48 1.52 1.46 1.48 1.47

Canada 2.5 1.8 1.7 2.5 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.2 -3.0 -3.2 -2.8 -2.6 -2.3 1.05 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.02

Sw itzerland 1.9 0.9 1.2 2.1 1.9 0.3 -0.7 0.4 0.9 0.9 10.5 12.7 12.3 10.5 10.0 0.97 0.95 0.98 0.98 1.03

Australia 2.5 3.6 2.5 3.0 3.3 3.3 1.8 2.6 2.7 2.6 -2.4 -3.7 -4.1 -3.9 -5.9 0.96 0.98 0.98 0.96 0.94

New Zealand 1.3 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.6 4.1 1.1 1.8 2.4 2.3 -4.0 -5.0 -5.6 -5.8 -6.4 0.82 0.85 0.86 0.91 0.89

Asia 7.3 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.7 5.8 3.7 3.6 4.3 3.7 2.3 1.7 2.3 2.6 2.8

Bangladesh* 6.7 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.5 8.8 10.6 7.7 7.5 8.0 0.9 1.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 77.80 77.00 76.00 77.00 77.00

China 9.2 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 5.4 2.6 2.8 4.1 3.0 2.8 2.6 3.3 3.7 3.9 6.18 6.15 6.13 6.10 6.07

CNH - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 6.160 6.140 6.120 6.080 6.050

Hong Kong 5.0 1.4 3.4 4.5 4.5 5.3 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.0 5.2 3.0 3.5 4.5 5.0 7.765 7.765 7.780 7.800 7.810

India* 6.2 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 8.7 7.4 6.3 6.0 6.0 -4.2 -5.2 -4.4 -3.8 -3.7 54.50 53.50 53.00 52.00 53.00

Indonesia 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.7 5.4 4.3 5.2 5.1 4.8 0.2 -2.8 -2.1 -1.0 -0.4 9,950 9,900 9,800 9,700 9,800

Malaysia 5.1 5.6 4.7 5.3 5.0 3.2 1.7 2.6 3.4 2.7 11.0 6.4 8.0 10.0 10.0 3.12 3.10 3.07 3.00 3.08

Pakistan* 2.4 3.7 3.6 4.0 4.5 13.9 10.8 8.5 9.0 9.0 0.3 -2.1 -1.0 -2.0 -2.2 101.00 103.00 105.00 106.50 107.00

Philippines 3.6 6.8 6.9 6.3 7.0 4.8 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.0 3.1 2.8 4.2 4.2 4.3 42.00 41.50 41.25 41.00 41.75

Singapore 5.3 1.3 3.2 5.4 5.0 5.1 4.6 3.9 3.5 3.5 21.9 18.6 17.0 19.0 20.0 1.27 1.26 1.25 1.24 1.26

South Korea 3.6 2.0 2.5 3.8 3.6 4.0 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.8 2.4 3.8 3.0 2.5 2.2 1,130 1,100 1,110 1,080 1,080

Sri Lanka 8.3 6.4 6.5 7.2 8.0 6.7 7.6 7.5 7.2 7.5 -7.6 -6.6 -4.5 -4.0 -3.8 126.5 126.0 125.0 124.0 123.5

Taiw an 4.0 1.3 3.0 4.3 4.8 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.4 8.8 10.2 8.0 7.0 7.5 29.95 29.80 29.30 28.90 29.30

Thailand 0.1 6.4 4.0 5.5 6.0 3.8 2.9 2.5 3.2 4.0 3.7 0.6 -0.4 -0.9 -1.5 30.50 30.25 30.25 30.00 30.50

Vietnam 5.9 5.0 5.5 6.2 6.5 18.6 9.3 7.2 8.2 5.8 -5.5 0.3 0.4 -0.5 -0.8 21,000 21,000 21,000 20,900 20,800

Africa 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.5 8.5 8.5 7.0 7.7 7.5 1.7 -1.8 -2.0 -2.5 -2.6

Angola 3.7 6.8 7.4 5.5 5.5 15.0 10.7 8.5 8.0 7.5 12.0 8.5 8.0 6.0 5.5 96.00 96.30 96.50 96.90 97.10

Botsw ana 8.0 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.3 6.9 7.5 6.3 5.9 5.7 -1.5 3.9 3.4 2.7 2.4 8.05 8.03 7.98 7.69 7.86

Cameroon 3.5 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.5 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 -3.8 -4.0 -3.8 -3.5 -3.5 508.5 496.9 508.5 504.6 516.5

Côte d'lvoire -5.8 8.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 3.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.0 -3.0 -1.5 -3.0 -3.0 508.5 496.9 508.5 504.6 516.5

The Gambia -5.0 -1.7 9.7 8.3 6.0 6.0 5.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 -17.0 -14.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 33.50 34.00 35.00 36.00 36.50

Ghana 14.4 7.9 8.2 7.6 7.2 9.0 9.4 10.9 9.3 7.4 -9.2 -9.8 -8.5 -9.5 -8.2 2.01 2.03 2.06 2.10 2.16

Kenya 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.2 14.0 9.6 6.0 6.6 6.1 -9.3 -13.7 -12.2 -11.0 -9.0 87.00 88.00 88.50 89.00 89.00

Nigeria 7.2 6.9 6.6 7.3 7.5 10.9 12.3 9.4 13.0 13.4 12.2 6.0 3.8 2.1 1.0 159.0 158.00 159.80 160.4 162.0

Sierra Leone 5.2 20.0 8.0 7.0 5.0 16.0 11.0 10.0 10.0 8.0 -50.0 -9.0 -7.0 -6.0 -7.0 4,340 4,350 4,360 4,380 4,390

South Africa 3.5 2.5 2.8 3.4 3.8 5.0 5.6 5.4 5.1 4.9 -3.4 -6.3 -5.9 -5.5 -5.4 10.30 10.05 10.20 10.30 10.50

Tanzania 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.0 7.2 11.3 15.6 9.8 7.4 6.7 -9.5 -16.0 -13.4 -11.5 -10.2 1,630 1,660 1,650 1,660 1,665

Uganda 4.4 5.1 5.3 5.0 5.6 18.7 14.6 5.5 8.2 8.1 -10.2 -11.0 -12.5 -11.7 -9.9 2,680 2,720 2,750 2,770 2,790

Zambia 6.6 7.0 7.4 7.5 7.8 8.8 6.4 7.3 7.4 6.2 3.2 1.2 2.6 2.9 3.0 5.20 5.10 5.05 5.10 5.30

MENA 6.8 4.2 3.9 4.1 4.2 5.5 5.8 5.4 5.4 5.2 8.9 9.0 7.6 7.5 7.0

Bahrain 1.9 3.9 4.5 5.0 4.5 -0.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.8 12.0 10.5 10.0 10.0 10.0 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38

Egypt* 1.8 2.2 2.0 3.5 4.5 11.3 8.7 7.7 8.5 8.0 -2.6 -3.1 -2.9 -2.5 -2.1 6.88 6.95 6.98 7.16 7.20

Jordan 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.6 4.5 5.0 5.2 5.0 -12.0 -14.1 -9.9 -8.0 -6.5 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71

Kuw ait* 6.3 3.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 5.0 4.4 2.6 3.7 3.6 30.0 40.0 35.0 35.0 30.0 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27

Lebanon 1.5 1.3 2.5 4.5 4.5 5.0 6.4 5.5 5.0 4.5 -17.5 -18.0 -16.0 -15.0 -14.0 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500

Oman 4.5 8.3 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.0 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 10.0 12.0 7.5 7.0 7.0 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39

Qatar 16.9 4.5 4.9 4.8 4.8 2.4 2.1 3.8 5.1 3.4 32.0 30.0 27.0 25.0 24.0 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64

Saudi Arabia 6.8 6.8 4.8 4.2 3.9 6.1 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.2 22.0 21.0 19.5 18.7 18.7 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75

Turkey 8.5 3.0 4.0 4.5 4.8 6.5 9.0 7.6 6.8 7.0 -9.8 -7.5 -8.0 -7.2 -7.6 1.85 1.85 1.80 1.80 1.80

UAE 4.2 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.2 0.9 1.5 2.9 2.8 3.2 11.2 10.2 8.5 7.4 7.1 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67

Latin America 3.9 2.2 3.5 4.1 4.1 7.0 6.4 6.9 6.5 6.2 -1.7 -1.9 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0

Argentina 6.5 0.5 2.5 3.0 3.5 23.5 25.0 28.0 25.0 23.0 -0.4 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.25 5.45 5.65 5.85 6.05

Brazil 2.7 0.9 3.2 4.0 3.6 6.5 5.4 5.8 5.5 5.3 -2.1 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 -2.4 2.16 2.07 2.03 2.00 2.02

Chile 5.9 5.6 4.5 5.0 5.0 3.3 3.0 2.7 3.0 3.0 -1.3 -3.8 -4.2 -3.2 -3.0 505 500 490 480 485

Colombia 5.7 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 3.7 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.0 -3.1 -3.1 -3.3 -2.7 -3.0 1,910 1,880 1,850 1,820 1,850

Mexico 3.9 3.9 3.6 4.0 4.5 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.8 -0.8 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 13.05 12.75 12.40 11.99 11.90

Peru 6.9 6.3 6.0 6.0 5.8 3.4 3.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 -1.9 -2.8 -2.8 -2.5 -2.5 2.75 2.70 2.65 2.63 2.62

Global 3.1 2.5 2.7 3.4 3.1 3.9 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.8 -- -- -- -- --

Current account (% of GDP)Inflation (yearly average %)Real GDP growth (%) FX

Economics Weekly

GR13AP | 21 June 2013 8

Forecasts – Equity

MSCI DM

Data as of 18 Jun 2013

Aggregate Weight1 EPS growth PE ratio PBV Dividend

yield Dividend payout

Performance

Country

2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2013 2013 YTD

Australia 3% -4% 9% 10% 15 14 13 1.9 1.9 1.8 5% 69% 5%

Canada 4% -1% 4% 12% 14 14 12 1.8 1.7 1.6 3% 44% 0%

Euro area 12% -10% 14% 14% 14 13 11 1.3 1.3 1.2 4% 48% 4%

Japan 9% 15% 57% 20% 24 15 13 1.3 1.2 1.1 2% 31% 27%

New Zealand <1% -3% 8% 13% 18 16 14 1.8 1.9 1.8 5% 82% 3%

Switzerland 4% 0% 17% 12% 17 15 13 2.5 2.3 2.1 3% 48% 13%

United States 54% 7% 7% 11% 16 15 14 2.5 2.3 2.1 2% 31% 16%

United Kingdom 9% -6% 3% 9% 12 12 11 1.8 1.7 1.6 4% 47% 8%

MSCI DM

2% 11% 12% 16 14 13 2.0 1.8 1.7 3% 38% 11%

EPS growth PE ratio PBV

Dividend yield

Dividend payout

Performance

Sectors 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2013 2013 YTD

Consumer Discretionary 19% 21% 15% 19 16 14 2.7 2.5 2.3 2% 30% 18%

Consumer Staples 6% 9% 10% 19 17 16 3.6 3.3 3.1 3% 49% 13%

Energy -4% 0% 10% 12 12 11 1.6 1.5 1.4 3% 37% 6%

Financials 7% 20% 10% 15 12 11 1.2 1.1 1.0 3% 38% 11%

Health Care 4% 2% 9% 16 16 14 3.3 3.1 2.8 2% 37% 19%

Industrials 3% 9% 14% 16 15 13 2.4 2.2 2.0 2% 37% 11%

Information Technology 3% 7% 13% 16 15 13 3.0 2.7 2.4 2% 26% 10%

Materials -23% 10% 19% 15 14 12 1.7 1.6 1.5 3% 39% -7%

Telecommunication Services -4% 9% 9% 15 13 12 2.0 1.9 1.8 5% 64% 10%

Utilities 3% 9% 17% 18 16 14 1.4 1.3 1.3 4% 72% 7%

MSCI EM

Data as of 18 Jun 2013

Aggregate Current 12-month

index 12-month

return Weight1 EPS growth PE ratio PBV

Dividend yield

Dividend payout

Performance

Country local index forecast2 forecast2

2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2013 2012 2013 2014 2013 2013 YTD

Brazil 49,465 60,500 22% 12% -28% 21% 13% 13 11 10 1.3 1.3 1.2 4% 43% -11%

Chile

2% -26% 23% 23% 22 18 14 2.0 1.8 1.7 2% 43% -9%

China 9,734 14,500 49% 18% 0% 11% 11% 10 9 8 1.4 1.3 1.2 4% 32% -11%

Colombia

1% -3% 11% 11% 17 16 14 1.8 1.6 1.5 4% 63% -12%

Egypt

<1% -3% 25% 20% 11 9 7 1.3 1.3 1.1 5% 40% -12%

India (FY) 19,223 22,000 14% 7% 9% 12% 15% 16 14 12 2.5 2.2 1.9 2% 24% -2%

Indonesia 4,840 4,800 -1% 3% 7% 6% 17% 17 15 13 3.7 3.3 2.8 3% 40% 7%

Korea 1,901 2,100 10% 15% 9% 21% 16% 10 8 7 1.2 1.0 0.9 1% 10% -7%

Malaysia 1,774 1,750 -1% 4% 11% 1% 10% 16 16 15 2.2 2.1 2.0 3% 51% 7%

Mexico 39,460 55,000 39% 5% 23% 12% 14% 19 17 15 2.8 2.5 2.3 2% 30% -9%

Morocco

<1% -3% 11% 5% 11 10 10 2.2 2.0 1.8 5% 54% -9%

Peru

<1% -6% -0% 11% 11 11 10 2.5 2.1 1.8 3% 30% -25%

Philippines 6,519 8,000 23% 1% 13% 6% 9% 21 19 18 3.2 2.9 2.7 2% 42% 12%

Russia 1,314 1,800 37% 6% -12% -0% 1% 5 5 5 0.7 0.6 0.6 4% 21% -8%

South Africa 36,599 34,000 -7% 7% 6% 6% 14% 15 13 12 2.3 2.1 1.9 4% 49% -3%

Taiwan 8,011 9,700 21% 12% -1% 35% 13% 20 14 13 1.8 1.7 1.6 3% 46% 3%

Thailand 1,427 1,650 16% 3% 13% 10% 13% 14 13 11 2.3 2.2 1.9 3% 42% -4%

Turkey 77,740 96,000 23% 2% 19% 10% 9% 11 11 10 1.8 1.6 1.4 3% 31% -1%

MSCI EM 954 1,200 26%

-3% 10% 12% 11 10 9 1.5 1.4 1.3 3% 31% -10%

Aggregate EPS growth PE ratio PBV Dividend

yield Dividend payout

Performance

Sectors 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2013 2012 2013 2014 2013 2013 YTD

Consumer Discretionary 4% 10% 15% 13 11 10 2.0 1.9 1.6 2% 20% -6%

Consumer Staples 13% 7% 17% 24 23 20 3.8 3.6 3.2 2% 49% -4%

Energy -16% 3% 3% 7 6 6 0.8 0.8 0.7 4% 27% -16%

Financials 7% 5% 12% 10 9 8 1.4 1.3 1.2 4% 32% -8%

Health Care 19% 14% 20% 24 22 18 3.5 3.3 2.9 1% 29% -2%

Industrials -7% 5% 26% 15 14 11 1.4 1.4 1.3 2% 31% -9%

Information Technology 41% 37% 13% 14 10 9 2.1 1.9 1.6 2% 19% -2%

Materials -42% 14% 15% 13 12 10 1.2 1.2 1.1 3% 37% -23%

Telecommunication Services 3% 2% 7% 13 12 12 2.1 2.1 1.9 5% 56% -9%

Utilities 10% 7% 16% 12 12 10 0.9 1.0 0.9 4% 44% -8%

Notes: All country data refers to local currency, aggregate data to USD;

EPS = earnings per share, PE = price/earnings, PBV = price to book value;

Sources: FactSet, except (1) MSCI, (2) Standard Chartered Research

Economics Weekly

GR13AP | 21 June 2013 9

Commodities forecasts

*weekly quote; **monthly average; ***10 tonne contract; 1no forward price comparison available;

2cost and freight at China’s Tianjin port, 62%

iron content, Indian origin; #6th contract;

Sources: Bloomberg, Platts, Standard Chartered Research

Market

closem/m

Change

YTDy/y Q1 - 13 Q2 - 13 vs Fwd Q3 - 13 vs Fwd Q4 - 13 vs Fwd Q1 - 14 vs Fwd 2012 2013 vs Fwd 2014 vs Fwd

12-Jun-13 % % % A F % F % F % F % A F % F %

Crude oil (nearby future, USD/b)

NYMEX WTI 95.9 -0.1 +3.6 +15.1 94 93 -1% 98 2% 98 3% 98 5% 94.2 96 1% 99 9%

ICE Brent 103.5 +0.0 -7.4 +5.9 113 106 2% 110 7% 108 6% 105 3% 111.7 109 4% 105 6%

Dubai spot1 99.9 -0.5 -6.4 +4.2 108 103 - 107 - 105 - 102 - 108.9 106 - 103 -

Refined oil products cracks and spreads

Singapore naphtha (USD/b)1 -6.0 +3.6 +47.4 -64.1 -1.8 -3 - -2 - 2 - - - -5.5 -1.2 - - -

Singapore jet kerosene (USD/b)1 15.9 +4.0 -9.6 +3.5 20.2 17 - 18 - 19 - - - 17.8 18.6 - - -

Singapore gasoil (USD/b)1 18.1 +5.7 +23.2 +22.5 19.5 17 - 18 - 19 - - - 17.1 18.2 - - -

Singapore regrade (USD/b)1 -2.2 +19.8 -174.9 -463.3 0.7 -2 - -1 - -1 - - - 0.6 -0.6 - - -

Singapore fuel oil 180 (USD/b)1 -2.9 -43.9 -74.3 -1070.2 -7.4 -6 - -7 - -6 - - - -3.3 -6.6 - - -

Europe jet (USD/b)1 15.5 +10.8 -8.2 -11.8 18.9 14 - 15 - 14 - - - 18.4 15.5 - - -

Europe gasoil (USD/b)1 13.1 +0.9 -2.0 -21.5 15.7 17 - 17 - 17 - - - 16.3 16.3 - - -

Rotterdam 3.5% barges (USD/b)1 -12.0 +5.0 -41.2 +87.9 -16.1 -13 - -11 - -13 - - - -12.4 -13.0 - - -

Coal (USD/t)

API4 79 -2.3 -11.6 -6.6 86 82 1% 84 8% 87 9% 87 6% 93 85 4% 88 3%

API2 75 -8.8 -16.3 -12.1 87 83 3% 83 6% 85 4% 88 4% 94 84 3% 90 2%

globalCOAL NEWC*1 87 -1.3 -8.0 -4.1 93 87 - 86 - 90 - 92 - 97 89 - 91 -

Base metals (LME 3m, USD/t)

Aluminium 1,864 -0.3 -10.2 -5.2 2,039 1,900 2% 2,000 8% 2,100 11% 2,200 15% 2,052 2,010 6% 2,200 13%

Copper 7,120 -4.5 -10.7 -4.2 7,952 7,250 0% 7,500 5% 7,750 9% 8,500 19% 7,948 7,613 4% 8,500 18%

Lead 2,118 +4.5 -9.9 +10.4 2,305 2,100 2% 2,200 4% 2,200 3% 2,400 12% 2,074 2,201 2% 2,400 11%

Nickel 14,275 -6.7 -16.4 -16.0 17,360 16,000 6% 17,000 19% 17,000 19% 18,000 25% 17,583 16,840 11% 18,000 24%

Tin 20,400 -2.4 -12.9 +4.8 24,058 22,000 5% 24,000 18% 24,000 18% 24,500 20% 21,113 23,515 10% 24,500 20%

Zinc 1,865 -0.6 -10.9 -1.6 2,052 1,900 3% 2,000 8% 2,100 11% 2,300 21% 1,965 2,013 6% 2,300 19%

Iron ore (USD/t)

Iron ore2 124 -9.5 - -8.8 148 124 - 112 - 127 - 127 - 129 128 - 120 -

Steel** (CRU assessment, USD/t)

HRC, US1 639 -3.5 - -13.3 680 638 - 606 - 576 - 759 - 724 625 - 734 -

HRC, Europe1 614 -5.4 - -10.6 664 622 - 606 - 559 - 564 - 666 613 - 576 -

HRC, Japan1 589 -3.8 - -28.8 648 597 - 605 - 598 - 620 - 820 612 - 669 -

HRC, China1 605 -4.0 - -13.7 679 602 - 562 - 600 - 650 - 654 611 - 651 -

Precious metals (spot, USD/oz)

Gold (spot) 1,389 -3.0 -17.2 -14.2 1,632 1,400 -2% 1,400 1% 1,500 8% 1,500 7% 1,669 1,483 2% 1,500 7%

Palladium (spot) 757 +4.5 +6.4 +21.0 741 740 2% 750 -1% 800 5% 850 12% 645 758 2% 850 12%

Platinum (spot) 1,480 -1.2 -4.9 -0.1 1,632 1,500 1% 1,550 4% 1,650 11% 1,800 21% 1,552 1,583 4% 1,800 21%

Silver (spot) 22 -7.9 -28.2 -24.4 30.1 23 -2% 24 10% 25 14% 25 14% 31.2 26 5% 25 13%

Softs (nearby future)

NYBOT cocoa, USD/t 2,372 +2.1 +5.7 +4.7 2,177 2,300 0% 2,350 -1% 2,350 -1% 2,400 1% 2,346 2,294 -1% 2,400 0%

LIFFE coffee, USD/t *** 1,747 +2.1 -12.1 -17.4 2,047 1,975 3% 2,100 19% 2,100 17% 2,100 16% 2,016 2,056 9% 2,100 14%

NYBOT coffee, USc/lb 123 -15.2 -14.8 -19.6 143 135 2% 140 12% 145 13% 150 14% 175 141 7% 150 11%

NYBOT sugar, USc/lb 16 -6.1 -17.0 -18.7 18.4 17 0% 18 9% 19 8% 20 14% 21.6 18 4% 21 19%

TOCOM RSS3 rubber#, JPY/kg 231 -21.3 -23.5 -4.7 303.0 315 - 320 - 320 - 315 - 274.3 315 - 323 -

Fibres

NYBOT cotton No.2, USc/lb 89 +2.9 +17.8 +17.9 82 85 -1% 90 1% 80 -9% 90 3% 80 84 -2% 90 5%

Grains & oilseeds (nearby future)

CBOT corn (maize), USc/bushel 651 -9.4 -6.8 +9.8 715 660 0% 650 12% 625 16% 660 20% 694 663 6% 685 24%

CBOT soybeans, USc/bushel 1,541 +0.8 +8.1 +8.9 1,448 1,460 -1% 1,450 3% 1,400 6% 1,350 2% 1,464 1,439 2% 1,375 5%

CBOT wheat, USc/bushel 683 -2.7 -12.3 +10.8 739.2 700 1% 725 5% 730 3% 740 3% 750.3 724 2% 748 1%

CBOT rice, USD/cwt 16 +6.0 +9.6 +17.2 15.3 16 0% 16 -2% 16 -3% 15 -9% 14.9 16 -1% 15 -10%

Thai B rice 100%, USD/tonne*1 600 +0.3 -0.7 +2.9 600 600 - 625 - 625 - 630 - 589 613 - 630 -

Edible oils (nearby future)

Palm oil (MDV,MYR/t) 2,420 +6.1 +4.3 -17.0 2,458 2,350 0% 2,600 6% 2,750 12% 2,800 13% 2,959 2,539 5% 2,819 14%

Soyoil (CBOT, USc/lb) 48 -2.9 -2.0 -1.9 51 49 0% 51 6% 50 5% 53 12% 53 50 3% 54 15%

Energy

Metals

Agricultural products

Economics Weekly

GR13AP | 21 June 2013 10

FICC on-the-run – Rates

10Y bond 3M 3-12M Fundamentals Current trades

Majors

United States 2.36 ↔ ↑ Fiscal tightening will weigh on Q2 growth, but we expect

very gradual upward momentum to be maintained.

–

EU* 1.56 ↔ ↑ The economy remains weak; we expect the refi rate to

stay low for a prolonged period following the cut on 2 May.

–

Asia ex-Japan

China 3.46 ↔ ↑ Near-term performance will be affected by ultra-tight

liquidity conditions; weaker-than-expected macro data,

inflation likely to be contained for longer and potentially

delay the rate-hiking cycle.

–

Hong Kong 1.66 ↔ ↔ We see HKD short rates as range-bound at current low

levels on flush liquidity; long-dated bonds to track USTs;

higher volatility expected.

–

India 7.35 ↔ ↔ Supply pressure to offset support from rate cut

expectations.

–

Indonesia 6.73 ↑ ↔ Yields to rise on risk of higher supply, weak global demand and low real yields.

Sell IDR 10Y bond

Malaysia 3.50 ↔ ↔ Structural demand to limit foreign selling. We prefer the belly due to long-end supply risk.

Receive 5Y

MYR IRS

Long 7Y MGS

Pakistan 10.95 ↔ ↔ Concerns about higher bond supply to offset monetary

policy easing.

–

Philippines 3.35 ↑ ↑ Fundamentals are positive, but yields are too low; we

expect a sell-off, particularly at the long end.

Sell PHP 20Y bond

Singapore 2.11 ↑ ↑ Long-dated SGS to rise with USTs and near-term supply risk.

–

South Korea 3.24 ↔ ↔ Dovish BoK to mitigate Fed QE tapering fears, while IRS curve should bull steepen.

2/10 KRW IRS

steepener

Taiwan 1.39 ↔ ↑ Curve to bear steepen driven by rising yields on UST and

recovering local macro outlook.

–

Thailand 3.75 ↑ ↔ We see a risk of a bond sell-off amid potential capital-flow measures.

THB 3/10Y IRS

steepener

Vietnam 7.75 ↔ ↔ Yields have bottomed ahead of the anticipated last policy rate cut by the SBV.

–

Sub-Saharan Africa

Ghana** 19.35 ↓ ↓ Prospect of a larger sovereign bond to alleviate pressure on local yields.

Long GHS 3Y

Kenya 11.85 ↔ ↑ New fiscal-year supply outlook to weigh on sentiment. –

Nigeria 14.73 ↓ ↑ Supportive bond supply and inflation outlook. –

South Africa 7.59 ↔ ↓ Sell-off is overdone; valuations to revive offshore investor appetite.

Uganda 13.90 ↑ ↔ Increased bond supply weighs on sentiment. –

Zambia 16.00 ↔ ↓ Range-trading amid an uncertain monetary stance. –

* German government bond yields; ** 3Y benchmark Source: Standard Chartered Research

Economics Weekly

GR13AP | 21 June 2013 11

FICC on-the-run – Credit

Sector 3M Rationale Picks Pans

Sovereigns ↓ Tight spreads and higher susceptibility to a UST sell-off skew risk/reward to the downside. The PHILIP curve trades tight on a rating-adjusted basis; however, positive fundamentals and strong investor support will support the space. While the INDON curve offers a decent pick-up over the global BBB sovereigns, supply risk and fundamental concerns should limit spread tightening. The fundamental backdrop for HY sovereigns will remain challenging in the next 6-12 months, which could lead to volatility.

INDON 18S PHILIP 19N MONGOL 18

INDON 23/43 PHILIP 24N/37

Financials ↑

Senior ↔ Thai names appear slightly more attractive than Malaysian names. We prefer Korean policy banks over commercial banks, although they are rich in the Asian context.

SBIIN 18 KOFCOR 17

MAYMK 17 SHNHAN 18 BCHINA 17

Tier 2 ↑ While liquidity can be patchy, some of the Indian UT2s offer an attractive yield pick-up over Indian seniors and other Asian sub-debt. We also like some of the HK LT2s, which are attractive from a spread vs. DV01 perspective.

OCBC23 BCHINA 20 BNKEA 22 ICICI 22

–

Tier 1 ↑ Tier 1 names offer value on a rating-adjusted basis, though liquidity is an issue.

SBIIN 7.14 49 –

High-grade corporates

↓

China corporates ↔ While Chinese SOEs offer a pick-up over US credits on a rating-adjusted basis, they appear fairly valued versus the Korean and Hong Kong credits. Hence, we are Neutral on the space.

CHINAM 22 VANKE 18 HAIAIR 20

SINOCH 20 SINOPC 43

Hong Kong corporates

↑ HK property-sector names have solid credit profiles, while the industrial names enjoy high ratings and a strong local bid. We believe some triple-B corporates offer good risk/reward.

SUNHUN 22 LIFUNG 20

WHEELK 17 NOBLSP 20

CHINLP 23 CHEUNG 49

Korea corporates ↓ Korean quasi-sovereigns no longer trade very tight against China and Hong Kong credits. Korean private corporates face weakening fundamentals and ratings overhang (in most cases).

KOSEPW 17 SKM 18 HIGHWY 17 POHANG 21

Other HG corporates

↔ While the Indonesian quasi-sovereigns offer some value, we think corporates in India and Malaysia are fairly valued. Singapore and Thai corporates are a bit rich, in our view.

PERTIJ 22 NTPCIN 21

TOPTB 23

High-yield corporates ↑

China corporates ↑ While most developers have reported strong 5M-2013 contracted sales, the sales of some may be negatively affected by policy controls in the coming months. We still expect most of them to achieve their full-year sales targets. The developers‟ liquidity positions are strong, backed by offshore fund-raising this year. Similarly, refinancing pressure on the industrial corporates has eased, although their earnings and credit metrics will remain under pressure. We maintain our Overweight recommendation on the sector given that selected bonds still offer RV and/or good carry. Also, the recent market dislocation and correction have provided more attractive entry levels than before.

EVERRE 15 YUZHOU 15

AGILE 16 CHINSC 17 SUNAC 17 CIFIHG 18 MIEHOL 16

MINMET 18 XIN 18

Other HY corporates

↔ HY bonds from the Philippines, India and Indonesia continue to provide a diversification opportunity for investors.

ADROIJ 19 FIRPAC 19

CIKLIS 19

Middle East

Sovereigns ↓ We expect fundamentals to remain robust given supportive oil prices. That said, we see better value in the financials and quasi-sovereigns, with the exception of Dubai, where we like the sovereign.

DUGB 17 QATAR 18 DUGB 23

Quasi-sovereigns ↔ We like the Abu Dhabi quasi-sovereigns, as they are a close proxy for the illiquid sovereign curve. While Dubai Inc. tightened considerably in 2012, HY Dubai corps. continue to offer value within the region.

SECO 43 TAQAUH 21 MUBAUH 21 QTELQD 21 DEWA 20

EMAAR 16

INTPET17 QTELQD 43

Financials ↑ The NPL cycle in the UAE has bottomed out, in our view. Dubai financials look attractive at current levels and should perform in line with sovereign paper. Abu Dhabi financials have defensive qualities.

FGBUH 2.862 17 GULINT 17

TAMWEE 17 EBIUH 23 EBIUH 49

NBADUH 17 QNBK 20

KWIPKK 20

Source: Standard Chartered Research

Economics Weekly

GR13AP | 21 June 2013 12

FICC on-the-run – FX

Spot 3M FX

weighting

3-12M FX

weighting

Fundamentals Current trades

Asia ex-Japan

CNY 6.13 ↔ ↑ Mild CNY appreciation in 2013 and medium-term Buy 5M USD-CNH, Sell 5M

USD-CNY NDF

HKD 7.76 ↓ ↓ No peg change likely; downward pressure on USD-HKD to abate over time

KRW 1,126 ↔ ↑ BoP surplus to limit KRW losses near-term, drive medium-term rebound

TWD 29.85 ↔ ↑ TWD to stabilise and recover medium-term on strengthening fundamentals Sell USD-TWD 1Mx6M spread

IDR 9,923 ↓ ↔ Current account deficit and FX policy to weigh on the IDR short-term

MYR 3.12 ↔ ↔ MYR to outperform medium-term on current account and palm oil

PHP 42.82 ↔ ↑ Stretched local asset valuations to counter strong fundamentals

SGD 1.25 ↔ ↔ MAS to maintain gradual appreciation

THB 30.56 ↓ ↔ THB vulnerable to UST rate move and heavy positioning

VND 21,003 ↔ ↔ Further devaluation is unlikely given slowing inflation, narrowing trade deficit

INR 57.74 ↔ ↑ Volatile flows vs. high carry to keep INR range-bound near-term

Sub-Saharan Africa

KES 85.65 ↓ ↓ Pick-up in economic activity to weigh on trade and current account deficit

NGN 161 ↑ ↑ Oil export revenues and steady portfolio inflows remain supportive

GHS 2.01 ↔ ↔ Vulnerable to swing in portfolio flows as the trade deficit remains wide

ZAR 10.29 ↓ ↓ Vulnerable to a still-wide current account deficit

Latin America

ARS 5.34 ↔ ↔ Systemic currency depreciation continues; „contado con liqui’ trades at 8.45

BRL 2.22 ↔ ↑ IOF removal is positive for future inflows once risk appetite stabilises

CLP 500 ↓ ↔ Weakening copper prices eroding Chile‟s terms of trade; rate cuts mooted

COP 1,896 ↓ ↔ Cyclical economic weakness is weighing more heavily on local sentiment

MXN 13.31 ↓ ↔ Higher US rates and reduction in MXN positioning to keep MXN soft near-term

PEN 2.74 ↓ ↔ Central bank may cut USD reserve requirements as onshore liquidity tightens

Majors

EUR 1.32 ↔ ↔ Strong current account position supports the EUR despite elusive growth

JPY 98.03 ↔ ↓ BoJ easing and anticipated Japanese investor flows drive JPY weakness

AUD 0.92 ↔ ↔ Slowing portfolio flows and USD strength to weigh on AUD

NZD 0.78 ↑ ↑ Stable growth and positive rate differentials are supportive going forward

CHF 0.93 ↔ ↓ Recurrent euro-area tensions and current account offset valuation concerns

GBP 1.55 ↓ ↓ Sluggish growth and abysmal current account dynamics remain GBP bearish

CAD 1.04 ↔ ↑ Weak growth and a fragile housing market will weigh on the CAD for now Buy USD-CAD 3M forward

outright

Source: Standard Chartered Research

Economics Weekly

GR13AP | 21 June 2013 13

FICC on-the-run – Commodities

Exchange 3-6M Fundamentals

Energy

Oil

WTI NYMEX ↔ We expect prices to remain well supported by tight supply fundamentals and tensions in the Middle East.

Coal

Newcastle (USD/t) globalCOAL ↔ Thermal coal prices are likely to face downside risks due to persistent oversupply in the market. However, the marginal cost of production may provide a price floor.

Agriculture

Softs

Cocoa (USD/t) NYBOT ↔ Although the market is well off its lows for the year, a further rally is being limited by firming global supply.

Coffee (USc/lb) NYBOT ↑ We favour Robusta over Arabica, as Arabica prices are likely to remain under pressure given the large crop harvest in Brazil.

Sugar (USc/lb) NYBOT ↑ Prices have slumped close to cost-of-production levels and should start to trend higher as demand improves.

Fibres (USc/lb)

Cotton NYBOT ↔ Prices have plateaued for now, but underlying demand from Asia and moderately lower global output are supportive factors.

Grains & oilseeds (USc/bu)

Corn CBOT ↔ Corn prices have regained momentum following planting delays in the US Midwest. Prices should now stay range-bound unless yields slump.

Soybeans CBOT ↔ The soybean market is being pressured by a large Latam harvest, but supported by logistical delays in Latam and low old-crop inventories.

Wheat CBOT ↑ Poor weather in the US is adversely impacting crop development.

Metals

Base metals (USD/tonne)

Aluminium LME ↑ Demand growth is strong and producers are cutting back, but high stock levels will limit the upside.

Copper LME ↑ We see some upside risks, but worries about a supply ramp-up are expected to limit the upside.

Lead LME ↑ Medium-term prospects look good as the automotive sector improves.

Nickel LME ↔ We expect fundamentals to remain weak and the complex to stay range-bound.

Tin LME ↑ Fundamentals are improving.

Zinc LME ↑ Medium-term fundamentals are turning.

Precious metals

Gold Spot ↔ We see a range-bound market for now. Investors are still selling ETFs, but physical appetite has been very strong.

Palladium Spot ↑ Supply cuts in South Africa are combining with an improving auto market.

Platinum Spot ↑ Supply cuts in South Africa are denting supply, and margins are being squeezed by rising costs.

Silver Spot ↔ We see a range-bound market for now.

Source: Standard Chartered Research

Economics Weekly

GR13AP | 21 June 2013 14

Disclosures Appendix

Recommendations structure

Standard Chartered terminology Impact Definition

Issuer – Credit outlook

Positive Improve We expect the fundamental credit profile of the issuer to <Impact> over the next 12 months

Stable Remain stable

Negative Deteriorate

Standard Chartered Research offers trade ideas with outright Buy or Sell recommendations on bonds as well as pair trade recommendations

among bonds and/or CDS. In Trading Recommendations/Ideas/Notes, the time horizon is dependent on prevailing market conditions and may

or may not include price targets.

Credit trend distribution (as at 19-Jun-2013)

Coverage total (IB%)

Positive 4 (0.0%)

Stable 204 (31.5%)

Negative 77 (26.9%)

Total (IB%) 285 (29.8%)

Credit trend history (past 12 months)

Company Date Credit outlook

- - -

Please see the individual company reports for other credit trend history

Regulatory Disclosure: Subject companies: Abu Dhabi National Energy Co., Agile Property Holdings Ltd., Bank of China (HK), Bank of East Asia Ltd., BOC Aviation PTE Ltd., Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Ltd., China Merchants Holdings International Ltd., China Petroleum and Chemical Corp., China South City Holdings Ltd., China Vanke Co. Ltd., CIFI Holdings Group, CLP Power Hong Kong Ltd., Dubai Electricity and Water, Emaar Properties PJSC, Emirates Islamic Bank, Evergrande Real Estate Ltd., First Gulf Bank PJSC, First Pacific Co. Ltd., Government of Dubai, Gulf International Bank, Hainan Airways Hong Kong Ltd., ICICI Bank, IPIC GMTN Ltd., Korea Expressway Corp., Korea Finance Corp, Korea South-East Power Co. Ltd., Kuwait Projects Company, Li & Fung Ltd., Malayan Banking Bhd., MIE Holdings Corp., Minmetals Land Ltd., Mongolian People's Republic, Mubadala Development Co., National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC, Noble Group Ltd., NTPC Ltd., Oversea-Chinese Banking, POSCO, PT Andaro Energy Tbk., PT Cikarang Listrindo, PT Pertamina Persero, Qatar National Bank, Qatar Telecom QSC, Republic of Indonesia, Republic of the Philippines, Saudi Electricity Co., Sinochem Group, Shinhan Bank, SK Telecom, State Bank of India, State of Qatar, Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd., Sunac China Holdings Ltd., Tamweel PJSC, Thai Oil PCL, Wheelock & Co. Ltd., Xinyuan Real Estate Co. Ltd. Yuzhou Properties Co. Ltd. SCB and/or its affiliates have received compensation for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the past one year: Abu Dhabi National Energy Co., CLP Power Hong Kong Ltd., Dubai Electricity and Water, Emaar Properties PJSC, First Gulf Bank PJSC, Gulf International Bank, ICICI Bank, Mubadala Development Co., Noble Group Ltd., POSCO, Qatar National Bank, Shinhan Bank, Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd., Wheelock & Co. Ltd. SCB makes a market in securities issued by this company: Bank of China (HK), BOC Aviation PTE Ltd., Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Ltd., China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., Evergrande Real Estate Ltd., Li & Fung Ltd., Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. SCB and/or its affiliates owns 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of this company: China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. SCB was a lead manager of a public offering for this company within the past 12 months, for which it received fees: Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. SCB has managed or co managed a public offering for this company within the past 12 months, for which it received fees: Gulf International Bank, Qatar National Bank, Republic of Indonesia, Thai Oil PCL

Economics Weekly

GR13AP | 21 June 2013 15

Analyst Certification Disclosure: The research analyst or analysts responsible for the content of this research report certify that: (1) the views expressed and

attributed to the research analyst or analysts in the research report accurately reflect their personal opinion(s) about the subject securities and issuers and/or other subject matter as appropriate; and, (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. On a general basis, the efficacy of recommendations is a factor in the performance appraisals of analysts.

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The contents of this document may not be suitable for all investors as it has not been prepared with regard to the specific investment objectives or financial situation of any particular person. Any investments discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Users of this document should seek professional advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, financial instruments or investment strategies referred to on this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realised. Opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, derived valuations, projections and price target(s), if any, contained in this document are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Our recommendations are under constant review. The value and income of any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this document can fall as well as rise and an investor may get back less than invested. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may be incurred. Foreign-currency denominated securities and financial instruments are subject to fluctuation in exchange rates that could have a positive or adverse effect on the value, price or income of such securities and financial instruments. Past performance is not indicative of comparable future results and no representation or warranty is made regarding future performance. While we endeavour to update on a reasonable basis the information and opinions contained herein, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Accordingly, information may be available to us which is not reflected in this material, and we may have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its publication. SCB is not a legal or tax adviser, and is not purporting to provide legal or tax advice. Independent legal and/or tax advice should be sought for any queries relating to the legal or tax implications of any investment. SCB, and/or a connected company, may have a position in any of the securities, instruments or currencies mentioned in this document. SCB and/or any member of the SCB group of companies or its respective officers, directors, employee benefit programmes or employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this document may at any time, to the extent permitted by applicable law and/or regulation, be long or short any securities or financial instruments referred to in this document and on the website or have a material interest in any such securities or related investment, or may be the only market maker in relation to such investments, or provide, or have provided advice, investment banking or other services, to issuers of such investments. 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Document approved by

John Calverley Global Head of Macro Economic Research

Data available as of

19:45 GMT 20 June 2013

Document is released at

19:45 GMT 20 June 2013

Economics Weekly

GR13AP | 21 June 2013 16

World Wide Wrap

Focus issues for next 3 months One year ahead outlook

In the US, the focus will be on the pace of growth, fiscal policy

negotiations, and Fed thinking on monetary policy. In Asia,

activity data will be key – particularly China‟s economic upswing

and property-sector prospects. In Europe, the evolution of ECB

and government policies, the extent of the recession, and deficit

reduction will be watched, as well as the overall political situation.

We expect the current global economic weakness to gradually

give way to faster growth in H2, helped by recent monetary policy

easing and receding risks related to Europe and US fiscal policy.

Asian central banks will finish easing and some will look to

tighten. Inflation should be well behaved. Key risks are politics in

Europe, US fiscal policy and Middle East instability.

The acceleration of China‟s 2013 economic growth is taking a little longer than we expected. A disappointing March was followed by a moderately weak April. We expect clearer signs of momentum to emerge in H2 as housing, infrastructure and exports become more supportive. We believe short-term stimulus is unlikely unless the employment situation deteriorates markedly.

We forecast GDP growth of 7.7% for 2013 and 7.5% for 2014,

reflecting the slower-than-expected recovery so far in 2013 and

the new government‟s shift in focus to economic reform. We have

also lowered our CPI inflation forecast to 2.8% y/y for 2013 and

to 4.1% for 2014. We expect the rate-hiking cycle to resume in

Q1-2014, followed by two more hikes in Q2-2014.

Recent INR weakness complicates India‟s monetary policy as it can exacerbate inflationary pressures and strain fiscal health. We expect the RBI to keep the repo rate unchanged at its July policy meeting. While the C/A deficit is likely to narrow after a series of measures to curb gold imports, funding the deficit could be challenging in the current global environment.

An improvement in India‟s FY14 GDP growth will depend on

government efforts to unfreeze the investment cycle. A faster

rebound is unlikely, as politics are likely to limit changes in

economic policy. We expect FY14 GDP growth of 5.5% from

5.0% in FY13, despite benefits from lower commodity prices,

interest rate cuts and higher government expenditure.

The slowdown in export growth has been largely offset by

resilient domestic demand, with the exception of Singapore.

Central banks in the region have finished or almost finished

easing, as the growth slowdown has been modest and prospects

for H2 are better. Food prices are a potential concern.

Local authorities‟ flexibility in providing monetary and fiscal

stimulus, along with a possible influx of foreign capital, results in

a positive growth outlook for the region. Policy makers will need

to remain vigilant to the risk of a resumption of asset- and

consumer-price inflation, as well as a re-acceleration of lending

and money growth.

Exports should continue to recover, while headwinds to domestic

demand, such as the household debt burden and weak housing

market, may persist. Headline inflation is expected to stay below

2%, and the current account surplus should be maintained. The

National Assembly has approved a KRW 17.3tn supplementary

budget, and the BoK has embarked on another easing cycle.

We expect a gradual recovery. The export outlook is improving

and fiscal and monetary easing will support domestic demand.

Inflation should stay below the BoK‟s target range, and the

housing market should find a floor thanks to policy support. The

government will seek new ways to finance the proposed welfare

programme expansion, increasing the risk of effective tax hikes.

Oil exporters are benefiting from high oil prices, with Saudi

Arabia and Qatar taking the lead in government spending and

Abu Dhabi having given the green light for previously delayed

projects. Regional geopolitical challenges remain, and sluggish

global growth should cap y/y oil output growth in 2013. The

Levant countries will be the most exposed to geopolitics.

High oil prices should support GCC economies in 2013 as growth

slows moderately. Non-oil-producing countries face challenges.

Transition continues in some, while others still face political

turmoil. The economic fortunes of key newcomer Iraq (with rising

hydrocarbon exports) will depend on how quickly it removes

impediments to investment and implements structural reforms.

South African economic activity will be monitored to assess the

risk of further policy easing. We do not expect further easing.

Kenyatta‟s victory in Kenya‟s presidential election should provide

a more stable backdrop for economic growth, and Kenya should

experience a firmer recovery in 2013.

Although global uncertainty weighs on the outlook for

Sub­Saharan Africa, Africa‟s broad-based economic recovery

looks set to continue. Domestic growth momentum should drive

GDP performance in 2013. The election in Zimbabwe will be

closely watched. Politics will play a key role in determining

economic outcomes.

Brazil is hiking rates as the deterioration in the inflation outlook takes centre stage. The central bank is using its tools to try to prevent BRL volatility. The industrial sector is starting to recover, and the weaker currency should help. In Argentina, strict capital controls are part of a worrisome policy backdrop. Attention in Mexico will shift to the PRI‟s ability to promulgate much-needed structural reforms.

The region, Brazil in particular, is set for stronger growth in 2013.

The more market-oriented economies – including Brazil, Mexico,

Colombia, Peru and Chile – show promise, while distortions in

Argentina and Venezuela may lead to greater challenges. FX

reserves are generally robust and banks well capitalised.

Dependence on commodity prices is a vulnerability.

We expect GDP growth to stay soft in Q3-2013 as fiscal

headwinds continue, and the business inventory cycle turns less

favourable. Inflation is likely to remain low, while the jobless rate

will likely edge down gradually. The Fed intends to start tapering

QE later this year, but we think this may happen in January 2014,

when activity picks up more sustainably.

We expect the economy to pick up materially in 2014, boosted by

robust business investment, a continued housing recovery,

moderating fiscal headwinds and increased bank lending. The

energy boom should underpin future growth. We see the Fed

ceasing QE by Q3-2014, and its first rate hike in Q3-2015, when

the unemployment rate is expected to drop below 6.5%.

The focus is on activity and politics. Markets will monitor (1)

whether politics in the euro-area periphery will support necessary

austerity measures and reforms, ensuring backing from core

governments; and (2) the ECB‟s stance and actions, in particular

peripheral bond-market support and liquidity facilities for banks.

The economy remained in recession in Q1-2013.

Euro-area concerns are affecting confidence throughout the

region. This adds to tight fiscal policy and still-difficult credit

conditions. We expect the economy to stabilise and begin a

sluggish recovery. We think officials and the ECB will eventually

do enough to restore a degree of confidence among investors,

even if Greece leaves the euro area.

The BoJ plans to double the monetary base over the next two

years and extend JGB buying across the curve. This is likely to

affect the economy by lowering the yield curve and raising

inflation expectations. The focus now will be on Upper House

elections (July) and the long-term growth strategy, due to be

announced this summer, with hopes of new reforms.

2013 still looks challenging. Despite our higher GDP forecast,

raised on the back of the „quantitative and qualitative monetary

easing‟ programme, it remains unclear whether the current

improvement in local sentiment will translate into a sustainable

longer-term recovery. We do not expect the 2% inflation target to

be achieved soon.

Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix Source: Standard Chartered Research

Global

Greater China

South Asia

South EastAsia

South Korea

MENA

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Latin America

United States

Europe

Japan